Guess when inflation takes place..BNM will increase interest rate. And that will push stock prices lower... and thats how you get back the same required return on Stock - relative to other investment which gives earnings that can rise according to inflation (i.e unaffected by inflation). Hmm...interesting.
Posted by Kian Leong Lim > Mar 7, 2015 09:44 PM | Report Abuse You have to see cost of the Insas-PA and dividend separately: For the dividend of 4% or RM$40 per year for 5 years total is RM200, you cost is RM0.88 right now or you bought initially at RM1 with warrent compensation is the same. We use the lowest price, so we use RM0.725 (those that bought initially) or the total cost is RM725 for RM200 of dividend payments. But the dividend payments also must be calculated by the time-value of money because of 5% inflation every year, so you are getting back only RM200*0.787=157.4 which is 157.4/5years=RM31.5 per year of today's money value.
But those who buy at RM0.80 or RM0.80+ they are not compensated by the warrant, and Mr. KCCHONGNZ is telling people the return is 9% (he forgot to subtract inflation of 5%), he didn't tell you whether need to pay tax or not on the dividend too?
Valuation of PA is very simple. Unlike many other complicated valuation model, it is very straight forward. Value of PA can be written as the sum of the present values of an annuity (coupon or it also called dividend) and a single cash flow (face value of bond). This is basically discount cash flow method.
Discount Factor 9.0% Intervals 1 2 3 4 5 FV of Dividend 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 Discount Factor 0.917 0.842 0.772 0.708 0.650 PV of Dividend 0.037 0.034 0.031 0.028 0.026 Sum PV of Dividend 0.156
FV of PA 1.00 at Year 5 PV of PA 0.650 IV of PA 0.806 (0.156 + 0.65)
For simplicity, I take 5 intervals (instead of 10 interval), but the return shouldn't be far away. From above, the return of PA at RM 0.806 is 9%. Most of assets including stock, bond, preference share, properties and REITs are valued by using discount rate in which inflation risk has been considered. If inflation increased, every assets will be affected too, not only INSAS-PA. They are all under equal foot. Hope you understand that and stop accusing people by using wrong fact.
Posted by Kian Leong Lim > Mar 8, 2015 08:03 AM | Report Abuse
You don't have to tell people loudly you know finance, accounting, or economics to be able to do what you want to do, that is just to think logically for yourself:
Me: I fully agree with you. but unfortunately this sentence of yours above doesn't apply to you. Look what you have been rambling?
That is still not fatal until you simply personal attacking others of bohong, take money, misleading etc. Very sad case of yours.
Yes, in investing, just sound and logical thinking will go a long way too. This guy below also no training in finance. But look at how logical his thinking is compared to yours. It is not correct theoretically, but there is logic in it.
Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > Mar 6, 2015 04:23 PM | Report Abuse
let me show you how to get 10% at 80cents step by step
you all finance wizard keep talking about wat cagr wat inflation, so complicated for wat?
wat cagr? u use the 4cents to reinvest? how about future cost higher? not include other brokerage fees? maybe the reinvest 4 cents investment go wrong in future? who know?
plain and simple, you will get 40cents gain on top of your 80cents investment in next 5 years, thats it, total 50% gain in 5 years.
who know maybe in future, bank negara offer 17% interest rate just like years 1997, who know? u all keep talking about the unknown like you somekind of oracle, nobody know what really going happen in the future, all the complicated calculation is just redundant.
sifat leong, tell me pls, suggest me a better investment than insas-pa at 80cents, pretty please?
Kian Leong Lim Ks55 the anti-steel guy, for your information, we are also invested in ann joo and ssteel, you are not going to influence our mind, the shake-up will be good for the industry. Tong...tong...Chiang....Actually, it is good for the Lion Group as a whole, getting rid of the trouble so they have no chance to repeat their mistakes. Always work for nothing, what for, right! By the way, in my opinion, this is better for Lion Ind, Lion Div, and Lion Resources. The boss probably need to change but you can not change steel factories, somebody else will take over because Malaysia will still need to use steel in the building or real estate industry. I think UMMO also owns some shares in Megasteel, this will not be the end of the world for Megasteel but it is for Lion Corp. The boss should have let the company go long time ago and not drag down the other subsidiaries and himself. See you at other steel counters! 25/02/2015 14:00
Kian Leong Lim 沒想到,真的沒想到,不要有分別心,當你(自己)被人知道你(自己)有多少斤兩(黃金)時, 遊戲已經結束了(原來你指的黃金是你寫的這莫多狗屎)。 作天我有點無聊,有買的股票下跌沒買的股票反而上漲,所以就隨便寫寫! 不過我現在不想浪費我的時間,因為有些公司:(1)腦袋是Tong..tong... Chiang.....Tong..tong... Chiang.....不是4 more days to go.....而是天天Tong..tong... Chiang.....Tong..tong... Chiang......................天天這樣! (2)脾氣不好難怪生意的世界很小,有做沒做基本面跟退休的公司沒兩樣! 我為什末會說,Mr. KCCHONGNZ的文章很好, 因為 the fundamentals of a company (果=happy or trouble?)=(is under the influence of )因("人在做天在看")+緣("天下沒有白吃的晚餐")。做人的道理跟做股票的道理是一樣的,做人看事情,做事情看人,所以事情PN17不理想,人為因數很重要(關鍵)。
師父法語
△真正的目標不在把事情做好,而是在做事的過程中提升自己。
△不是在業已感果的果上去改,而是感果的境上去改。
△正因為困難才更要去做。
△所謂「隱惡揚善」,以佛法來說,自己的惡要發露,別人的惡要遮蓋。
△境無好壞,一樣是業感。
小心報應{Tong..tong... Chiang.....Tong..tong... Chiang..... 4 more days to go Tong..tong... Chiang.....Tong..tong... Chiang...................... } 26/02/2015 16:57
Kian Leong Lim Lion industry is a good buy at this price (risk taker can buy in small amount every 3 or 4 months) because they still have revenue from Parkson and some other profitable businesses. I am not criticizing but I need to point out that (in my opinion) the management of the company was implementing a wait-and-see attitude for too long until now only they begin to start cleaning (sapu) their house (getting rid of slag or the EI) which is a good thing. They are finally going on the right direction. We knew the steel market condition was really poor but that did not mean that you shouldn't be doing anything at all on your own part. I had not seen them providing any remedies only until now. In my opinion, Mr. Cheng should have taken some right initiatives long time ago on Lion industry. The old time have change, the kind of you-help-me-I- help- you style no longer work anymore. The company should cut ties with any company in the group that were not doing well initially and also people who are good for nothing but can only blame the poor market for everything bad that happens. 08/10/2014 12:38
Kian Leong Lim Despite all the setbacks, this is a good company that still churn out most of the steel sold in Malaysia but we have not seen the Government doing anything to give them the credit for making Malaysia more industrialized. The thing is this: Good People Also Have To Die. Being good is not good enough you still have to try to survive and proper. Let us see more initiatives from the company's part. 08/10/2014 12:51
Kian Leong Lim ks55: They reported their losses on investment on Mega Steel, that is how they account for the losses from holding of shares and uncollected debts from trade creditors. The EI. I suspect you will know very soon whether they are planning for a divorce or not. The marriage is just too expensive for them to live together any more. 09/10/2014 14:53
Kian Leong Lim I promise my master yesterday that I must not criticize people and should criticize myself. I saw you in many counters that are very speculative. So, I know you are a speculator. Those good counters people don't usually have much comment or complaints because they are good counters. Are you always picking bad counters and leaving a lot of your stupid comments. The worst thing you did was you brag about yourself, telling people that you are hero yesterday, because you are always in counters that prices have sunk a lot. How can you be a hero when you are always in counters that have sunk a lot and you are telling people in these counters how smart you are. Are you a Buddha, are you here because you are trying to help other people or are you trying to help yourself, or because you are sinking in this shithole too! Iam here because Iwant to wait until someone pull a bomb and the price drop to RM0.10 so that I can buy in some more to average out my past losses, you undr. 19/11/2014 11:20
Fortunebullz, gambar muka dipampang macam sial. Guna lah gambar hansem seperti Hakim Bao. Hanya sekadar gurauan.. Burung Thong jual wa kerana binatang tersebut ingin membantai Pa & ibu Insas. Dow Jones gelongsor 280 mata Jumaat lepas, pelabur mungkin bertindak gila sebelah pagi besok,, sekaligus membuka peluang kepada yang belum terbeli Insas.
Director holding 96mil of warrants and sell only 1.8mil warrant to buy RPS also cannot meh???? Like that difficult to become director....this one cannot, that one cannot....how like that????
halo Buddha also preach not to tell lies,not to slander - u said this is junk forum, u will go for good so why still here? pls dun tarnish Buddha's preaching! if Buddha see u Buddha also run away la :(
Actually Mr thong got sell shares at 3/4 March 1800lots then with the same day buy back 3100lots.. Check with announcement .. Maybe can go to 1.50 base on nta 1.83 by time .. U can grab some .. Wait the rainbow belong to U ..
Current holding on Inari mother share alone worth more than current Insas price already. Insas still have a lot of Inari Warrant, SYF, Ho Hup and its own business, cash on hand etc. Time would tell and the price would get closer to actual value.
Posted by Jophiel123 > Mar 11, 2015 08:24 AM | Report Abuse
@forever, how do you know will hit rm1.6 - 1.7?
Tipu you to buy his warrant because Datuk Thong keep disposing his free warrant as posting by logitrader show. If Thong dispose warrant meaning Insas won't go above warrant plus exercise price.
@truthseeker1 You really need to get your eyes checked... That is the director trading on Insas shares. How did you conclude the WB transaction based on Insas?
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Posted by Probability > 2015-03-07 23:35 | Report Abuse
Guess when inflation takes place..BNM will increase interest rate. And that will push stock prices lower... and thats how you get back the same required return on Stock - relative to other investment which gives earnings that can rise according to inflation (i.e unaffected by inflation).
Hmm...interesting.