aiya, all quiet... u buy now, u get about 9% per year for 5 years if you put your 4% dividend into a 9.2% investment everytime you get your 4% yearly... finish case closed... no need argue.. no need calculate whatever shit
kcchong I enjoy reading your write up and your FA calculation in i3 blog. Pls continue as there are many who benefit and learn from your views. In investing we all read, evaluate and make our own decision.
thanks for stating the obvious kian leong... lol... like that u dont put money in bank or FD la... put for what ? get the 4% every year less than inflation
Posted by ks55 > Mar 6, 2015 05:36 PM | Report Abuse
1. This PA is nonconvertible, meaning at the end of 5 years, you get back your one ringgit. This is similar to sukuk bond issued by government carries interest 6% per annum. Me: That is correct. The difference here is you can use one PA as RM1 to convert one share of warrant to mother share as mentioned by gark above, any time before the expiry of the warrant
2. Company loan/bonds are not guarantee by any body, not even the company itself. So call 'payable when able'.
Me: Yes, it is true. That is why you demand a risk premium basing on Insas’ financial health. It is also true for any investment, including Reits.
3. High interest rate associated with the risk involved. MGS-Conventional 5 year is at 3.654%. We should expect company loan/PA to pay much higher interest, otherwise there will not giving sweetener up to 2 free warrant for each PA subscribed.
Me: Yes, that is why the sweeteners with “free” warrants
4. I have seen many examples of then seem solid company's bond not able to pay interest or/and redeem in full. Notably the first failed case was Faber Merlin, then UEM bonds (under Halim Saad with coupon rate 8% interest). Most recent one is LionCorp LCB Bonds/Debt/RCSLS. I am not sure how good is our 1MDB bonds now.
Me: You got to assess Insas balance sheet and financial performance for Insas PA, not 1MDB bonds.
5. Five years down the road, a ringgit now is equivalent to 1.27 ringgit with 5% inflation. What happen in between we have hyper inflation of 10 to 20% inflation? What you earn from PA will not preserve you buying power.
Me: Who can predict interest rate correctly and consistently?
6. Consider REITs. Yes, when economy no good, less business can survive. Things happened in US in 2008/09 where all retail malls REITs suffered. In our case, 1997/98 saw non of the existing retail mall shut down because of no tenant. Those fail malls were the highly geared company like Lion Group, or company that jumped into wagon putting up half completed mall like Kemayan.
Me: does it guarantee you the DPU during recessions when nobody rent the property?
7. When market crash, what type of counter fare worst? REITs or Insas? One Hektar(1.50) can buy 1.8 Insas (0.835). If Hektar fall to 1.00, how much do you think Insas then will worth? How bad business of Insas will be affect? How bad Insas cash flow will become? Can it service interest of PA? Can redeem PA in full?
Me: We are talking about Insas PA and the certainty or uncertainty of its interest payment based on Insas financial position, not Insas share per se.
8. In a very very bad case scenario like Zimbabwe, inflation in million % per year. It will be the hard asset that can hedged against all these madness. If Zimbabwe is extreme, think of Russia and Venezuela now. If Ringgit going to fall to 4 or 5 to a USD, what will be the thing you want to hold on? Land? REITs? Property Developer? Contractor? For me, of course, REITs is one of the best option. Probably you know I have other option as well.
Me: Properties certainly is a good hedge against inflation. Nothing against reits, just that I can’t find any Reits selling at good value. I prefer property stocks as I have said, many offer good value. Return is not just dividend return, but the total return.
9. In conclusion, I am of the opinion 8.5% interest from Insas-PA is good, but I will still prefer REITs like Hektar. I also opine REITs hedge against inflation, Insas-PA does not. And REITs is having much lesser risk.
Me: Like someone said, this is individual preference.
10. Thank you, and will appreciate if you can give some comment to the above. ###
Posted by Kian Leong Lim > Mar 6, 2015 05:53 PM | Report Abuse
I study something engineering and I do not study finance, but this is how I think is happening, it is up to you to think through yourself but figure out properly yourself. If you discover the mistake in my writing, please feel free to let me know because you know no one is perfect.
So you are not that great in finance? But wtf you accused me of misleading people to buy Insas PA, that I takes money from someone (to promote Insas PA?), that I "bohong" etc?
in financial meltdown hyper inflation and riot happen, your best assets is water,canned food and guns with lots or ammo, not gold, cash, property , stocks etc etc
bro.. it's ok.. let it go.. kcchongnz is a good man just like you sabar ja.. let stock do it fight.. not among bro and sis... thanks
Posted by Kian Leong Lim > Mar 6, 2015 06:30 PM | Report Abuse
kcchongnz Posted by Kian Leong Lim > Mar 6, 2015 05:53 PM | Report Abuse "So you are not that great in finance? But wtf you accused me of misleading people to buy Insas PA, that I takes money from someone (to promote Insas PA?), that I "bohong" etc? 06/03/2015 18:08" quote from kcchongnz. In my opinion: I always still thought you have the intention of bohong people by reading your writings. From your indication, you stated as if because you are great in finance, you expect everyone to take or believe in everything you said, to me, your incorrect logic, wrong statistics, inflation ignorant and ignorant about finance though your assumption that you knew any finance at all.
I don't have to tell everyone you are so great in finance so that you get to mislead all the people so you can bohong them time and time again. To force them to accept everything you said is your tradesmark already on this i3 forum.
really admire kcchongnz despite holding back his emotions still is kind hearted to choose good words.
Posted by kcchongnz > Mar 6, 2015 05:38 PM | Report Abuse
Many people here do not know about finance too. It is ok as you know not everyone learns about finance. Some are Doctors, some engineers, some housewives, macham macham and they have their own skills. There are also many in the forums who are very knowledgeable too which we can learn from. I know by their names.
but this gentleman accused me of misleading people to buy Insas PA, that I takes money from someone (to promote Insas PA?), that I "bohong" not so good lah.
Kian Leong Lim NOBY : You are confused by KCCHONGNZ time-value of money that says money becomes more valuable over time. This is not true: RM1.00 now is worth less than the RM1.00 in the future (5 years from now for sure) because of the time-value of money. How less we don't know because we don't know the inflation rate. But we already know for the past 50 years, the inflation rate average 3.7 percent per year. Most government right now is hardly raising interest rate, so future inflation rate is expected to become higher than the figure of the last 50 years because we haven't have such low interest rate like now in the past 50 years. Future inflation rate is expected to be higer than the 3.7 percent before. The Insas-PA is giving you 4% per annum based on face value of RM1.00. If the inflation rate is 3.7 percent higher and compounded every year, you are going to lose quite a lot of money. This is just an estimate see 1/(3.7)^5 or 1.44 or roughly 70 cents (now). To say it in a different way, you are now using RM1.00 to purchase the 70 cents you are going to get in the future (5 years from now). Even if the price hasn't drop by 20 cent, which is what is happening now,you know!
Noby: look at what you said "Obviously money you put in PA need to lock in for 5 years to enjoy the annualized returns calculated. But I can assure you that as the maturity date approaches, the price will go closer to the par value which is RM1 as long as Insas is solvent. It would not make sense for the price to drop to RM0.60 or RM0.4 lets say 1 year before expiry due to the time value of money unless Insas gets into deep shit."
ME: I AM ACTUALLY VERY CLEAR ON MY EXPECTATIONS WHEN I BOUGHT INSAS PA AT 80SEN BUT I THINK YOU ARE THE ONE GETTING CONFUSED AS I CAN SEE FROM EVER GROWING LENGTH OF REPLIES AND RAMBLINGS. SO I WILL DO YOU A FAVOR AND TRY ONE LAST TIME TO EXPLAIN TO YOU 1. NOBODY ASK YOU TO BUY INSAS PA AT RM 1 ISN'T IT ? THOSE WHO GOT IT AT RM 1 ARE THOSE WHO SUBSCRIBED TO INSAS PA. BUT THEY WERE ALREADY COMPENSATED WITH 2 FREE WARRANTS WHICH THEY COULD HAVE SOLD AND MADE A PROFIT RIGHT ? 2. PLEASE STOP TALKING BS ABOUT INFLATION ETC AND GO THIS LINK AND CALCULATE THE ANNUALIZED RETURN OF YOUR INVESTMENT FOR INSAS-PA WITH THE FOLLOWING ASSUMPTIONS PV (PRESENT VALUE) = RM 0.8 FV (FUTURE VALUE) = RM 1.2 (KEEP IT SIMPLE ASSUME YOU GET 20 SEN IN COUPON PAYMENTS PLUS PAR VALUE OF RM1 TOTAL AT THE END OF 5 YEARS. I DONT WANT TO COMPLICATE IT FOR YOU BUT IF YOU ACTUALLY REINVESTED DIVIDENDS THAT RECEIVED EVERY 6 MONTHS, THE RETURNS WILL BE HIGHER) LENGTH = 5 YEARS ANNUALIZED RETURN = 8.45% http://www.moneychimp.com/calculator/discount_rate_calculator.htm
NOW GO AND CHANGE THAT PV VALUE TO YOUR RM 0.6 AND RM 0.4 ACCORDING TO YOUR ASSUMPTIONS AND SEE WHAT YOU GET FOR ANNUALIZED RETURN. TELL ME IF THAT STILL NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO BEAT YOUR "INFLATION". REMEMBER INSAS PA IS NOT THE SAME AS A STOCK. IT IS SIMILAR TO BOND THAT IS INSAS MUST PAY YOU BACK RM1 AT THE END OF 5 YEARS. THE RISK IS IF THE COMPANY DEFAULTS BUT DO YOU SEE THAT RISK WITH THEIR STRONG BALANCE SHEET ?
Wow.....discount rate, inflation rate, interest rate, bond rating..pv, pb, I, lah...etc etc etc....why make things so difficult. I already said my piece and dont want to add anymore. Just laughing to the bank. By the time this argument over, Insas-PA may cross 90 sen soon...I told everyone to look into it at 80sen. KIS....keep it simple!
aiyo this Lim fella really hitting below the belt la with his %$#@ opinion :( In my opinion: I always still thought you have the intention of bohong people by reading your writings. From your indication, you stated as if because you are great in finance, you expect everyone to take or believe in everything you said, to me, your incorrect logic, wrong statistics, inflation ignorant and ignorant about finance though your assumption that you knew any finance at all.
I don't have to tell everyone you are so great in finance so that you get to mislead all the people so you can bohong them time and time again. To force them to accept everything you said is your tradesmark already on this i3 forum.
pls keep your opinion to yourself la - dun have to make a fool here like Noby said with all your ramblings. obviously you're not reading well otherwise u will not be so confused LOL especially as to Kc's intention. Kc has stated many times he is sharing his views ( which many of us are very grateful) and that valuation of stock can differ vastly and to look for companies below IV preferably with plenty of MOS. since when he got boast he is great in finance? (though most of the smart ones here all know that he is indeed great except the very few like u,the donfollowblindly fella - obviously he followed blindly ONLY on the stocks that currently losing,truthseeker1 who definitely is NOT seeking any truth at all n last but not least the former roti canai fella who has become a ghost but probably also reincarnate into any of the 3 mentioned here LOL
u dun have to tell everyone tat he is great in finance so tat he can mislead n bohong them time n again ? wat kind of rubbish accusation is this :( - Again,Most here already know KC unselfishly share many valuable investing articles/comments these past few years and I personally have benefitted tremendously from his wisdom in sharing and have learn a lot and continue learning and am grateful tat he is still taking his precious time to do it despite the few POS who keeps heckling him to show their stupidity with their baseless accusation. A different opinion is always welcome but to slander - is low class to say the least :(
it's very obvious the misleading n confused one is u tat u r now accusing him of bohong n trademark etc- the more I read the more absurd n dumb u sound :(
infact I also share ayamtua's statement below
Posted by AyamTua > Mar 6, 2015 07:53 PM | Report Abuse really admire kcchongnz despite holding back his emotions still is kind hearted to choose good words.
if it was me u will see all those *&^% POS coming out LOL
English no good, chinese so so. Young ciku try to act like expert. Basic accounting tiada, basic economics tak tahu, try to talk about present money, future money, discount rate, CPI, dan macam-macam financial terms. Baru masuk market, sudah mahu jadi sifu. Hatam sini, hantam sana. Gua tengok pun sakit mata. Cakap belajar kejuruteraan, gred sampai sijil kah? Atau setakat Giat Mara? Cakap banyak dgn dia, gua keluar darah. Kalau dia ada, gua takut, lari cepet-cepat.
KCC orang baik, sampai orang adu penipu pun masih cuba bagi penjelasan yang bagus. Sifu KCC, gua caya sama lu. Gua hormat sama lu. Lu buat duit, gua suka dan sama-sama buat duit. 07/03/2015 12:11
Posted by ks55 > Mar 7, 2015 12:24 PM | Report Abuse
Gua ada 100k 20 tahun dahulu, tiap-tiap tahun buat 26% tak berhenti, sekarang sudah ada 10 juta. U mahu saing dgn saya? Tidur kuat sikit, mimpi kuat sikt. Kalau sudah ada 1 juta, bagi tahu saya. Ha...Ha....Ha.....
Jika U sudah ada satu juta, saya sudah ada 100 juta. Mahu kejar, naik Genting lah. Sifu baru.....
If you can do well in the past why you need to come to i3 to promote your stocks. Continue the way you do without i3 if you claim if you are so good.
Making money in stock market 20yr ago as easy as nowsaday? My humble oppinion is some adjustment has to be done on the 26% according to current market environment. Opss... I better keep quiet since I m only a 小学鸡。Otherwise kena hantam pulak.
First Where do you find the statement "KC Chong said Insas WB should fetch 35sen" true?
I can find only one sentence in the article as below:
"Hence from the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model, Insas warrant is worth 35 sen per share with the assumptions made."
Secondly try understand what the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model is about, the assumptions and its limitations.
Sure there are a lot of controversial issues in the model and my assumptions, and hence the value given by the model of 35 sen, not me, but the model with the available data and assumptions.
But you need to know the model, understand the terms, the assumptions etc, then only go ahead and find faults in what I have written. Otherwise you are like a "blind idiot simply knocking at the fly", meaning talking rubbish.
Thirdly, again price doesn't mean value, and why the major shareholders sell the warrant doesn't mean he knows the value, or he doesn't know the value. Nor do we know what his true intentions are.
I still remember about a couple of years ago the major shareholder of SKP REsources was selling millions of his SKP REesources at a few sen each. Go check what is the price of this warrant now.
What kind of truthseeker are you? No wonder you have a "1" at the back, truthseeker1. A "play play" or 玩 type of truthseeker, meaning the opposite meaning, twisting the truth, one cleaver to false accusation, fault finding etc.
i3 forumers are for noobs. Experts please stay away or be slammed and whacked left right centre back :p i3 forum has become such a sorry state as compared to what I see in hotcopper or seekingalpha. Need some revamp to enable rating, regulation, success rates of calls etc for each writer. Sigh...
why because of wall st ? maybe but US money flow now go to europe because of qe so maybe that will not affect emerging markets much if at all although some em flows may also go to europe.
It's great to see kc Chong still replying to these ppl. Respect and really appreciate his valuable sharing here. Some ppl just need to grow up. We are all here for sharing, decision to buy or not it's still up to you. If you follow blindly, then you can only blame yourself. I agree with Koay yichuan, maybe i3 need some revamp. Else we might lose valuable forumers and end up with bunch of noobs
maybe he selling to arbitrage against PA ? maybe he too smart for you ? maybe he selling because he already has many many million of warrants and wan to balance his holdings ? many reason he may do this. it does not mean he is negative on the company or even the warrant. unless you can read his mind maybe ? but me thinks it just sour grapes.
bricks, you already bought because you trust KC so hope others buy from you at higher price?. Next time don't trust him as far as warrants are concerned. I can proof to you all his warrants picks in i3 mostly are losing money in the end.
Damn! This truseeker dun understand English or wat. KC has clearly mentioned tat Wa valuation is based on Black Scholes. U shouldn't blame KC. If u really wan2 blame someone / something then blame Black Scholes. Go find his tomb!
yep , junk forum , BUT why a lot ppl addict to here leh . Everyone that post here only sharing their opinion & all have different method to do research . JUST MAKE SURE you take only the thing u can learn & for own on your good . You can't just blame other if you simply follow other ppl posting .
Kian Leong, are u paying KC to gv his valuation ? He want to gv valuation of 35 sen ka, 45sen or 60 sen whats that to you ? At least the valuatuon was backed up with facts and figures. Why all this personal attack ? What valuation can you show us ? Your replies all damn long but the more I read the more stars I see !
anybody here believe that a human-being can live up to 265 years if living condition is ideal????? i was told by a national 'feng sui' master of China while i was visiting a historical building in Beijing last year. i heard that she was also the 'feng sui' adviser of one of the major bank in Singapore....
Posted by Kian Leong Lim > Mar 7, 2015 09:44 PM | Report Abuse You have to see cost of the Insas-PA and dividend separately: For the dividend of 4% or RM$40 per year for 5 years total is RM200, you cost is RM0.88 right now or you bought initially at RM1 with warrent compensation is the same. We use the lowest price, so we use RM0.725 (those that bought initially) or the total cost is RM725 for RM200 of dividend payments. But the dividend payments also must be calculated by the time-value of money because of 5% inflation every year, so you are getting back only RM200*0.787=157.4 which is 157.4/5years=RM31.5 per year of today's money value.
But those who buy at RM0.80 or RM0.80+ they are not compensated by the warrant, and Mr. KCCHONGNZ is telling people the return is 9% (he forgot to subtract inflation of 5%), he didn't tell you whether need to pay tax or not on the dividend too?
WAH LIKE THIS ALSO CAN !! I M SPEECHLESS !! OK LA LIM, YOU WIN MAN !! DON'T BUY INSAS PA OK ?? IN FACT PLS CONVINCE EVERYONE TO KEEP THROWING INSAS PA OK ? I WILL SUPPORT YOU !!
Isn't inflation is something uncertain...and it can turn out to be deflation too? And since inflation affects 'every' investment with future cash flows(not only insas-PA)...and we are talking about investment options in a 'relative angle'...does the inflation value matter? I am trying to learn here.
Are u guys dumb? Just accept the fact that the yield if u buy now is 9% for the next 5 years and stop arguing... and Kian leong...u can't even do simple maths... 1 dollar 5 years from now is currently worth .784 now not .787, so u should just stop arguing...
And inflation doesn't matter directly... inflation will cause bnm to change their interest rates which will affect the price of insas pa....but if u hold it for 5 years till maturity, you will still get 9 % yield per year regardless of what happen unless insas goes bankrupt
And Kian leong , kc is using black shit Merton model to value insas-wa... which is used worldwide... but nobody say it's the most accurate model...so if u think u can outsmart mr Scholes. .. why don't u just sell ur shares
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Posted by tralala > 2015-03-06 17:45 | Report Abuse
aiya, all quiet... u buy now, u get about 9% per year for 5 years if you put your 4% dividend into a 9.2% investment everytime you get your 4% yearly... finish case closed... no need argue.. no need calculate whatever shit