Posted by albertyek > 2023-07-18 11:44 | Report Abuse

yelah cannot fulfil quota then meroyan like babies

Posted by danny123 > 2023-07-18 15:08 | Report Abuse

Cepat2 lari

Posted by DestinyL > 2023-07-18 15:18 | Report Abuse

If lari make sure you lari kuat kuat harimau ya

Posted by Xiao Zheng She > 2023-07-18 16:22 | Report Abuse

Chill

Posted by DestinyL > 2023-07-18 16:22 | Report Abuse

So happy

Posted by Hemsley > 2023-07-18 16:24 | Report Abuse

So fast top up d?

Posted by DestinyL > 2023-07-18 16:25 | Report Abuse

Where are the usual supporters here? Also lari kuat kuat?

Posted by Xiao Zheng She > 2023-07-18 16:25 | Report Abuse

Ready to "sapu" as well, but not that fast

Posted by ks5S > 2023-07-18 16:27 | Report Abuse

slow slow sapu.

Posted by Lizzie > 2023-07-18 16:29 | Report Abuse

wait first...63-65c then buy back ok.

Posted by albertyek > 2023-07-18 16:32 | Report Abuse

nak dapat RM0.6X pun macam mimpi lah woiiii

Posted by Hwai Hooi > 2023-07-18 16:37 | Report Abuse

got chance

Posted by serbatipu > 2023-07-18 16:51 | Report Abuse

already start delete comment ??

Posted by albertyek > 2023-07-18 16:52 | Report Abuse

YES YES YES mimpi termakbul..hopefully can retain until I get Singapore CPF money

Posted by DestinyL > 2023-07-18 16:57 | Report Abuse

68 sen, 58 sen, whatever la, all good value

Posted by Johnzhang > 2023-07-18 17:01 | Report Abuse

Is this the price to pay for recent disharmony in this forum ???

Posted by ks5S > 2023-07-18 17:04 | Report Abuse

close eye and buy at any price. like main tikam only . very safe. strategic asset

Posted by danny123 > 2023-07-18 18:11 | Report Abuse

Game over

Posted by tingpangeng > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

I have observed that an indication to dispose off the share once you noticed this forum is too excited and bickering over petty issue :):)

Posted by ks5S > 2023-07-18 18:59 | Report Abuse

no worry for any corrections. Long term it is still moving up

Posted by Johnzhang > 2023-07-18 19:51 | Report Abuse

Pang72,
My working for the $6.6 mil per km per concession year paid by ALR is certainly included the compensation arrears owed by government . We all don’t know how much was that portion.
In any case , highway tolling concession agreements had always been favoring the concessionaire in a big way . Moreso, WCE shall enjoy robust traffic .

Posted by Johnzhang > 2023-07-18 19:57 | Report Abuse

Sell signal surfaced today . Be ready to take advantage of it .

Posted by Felix888 > 2023-07-18 20:28 | Report Abuse

WCE 233km = rm9. 6B = rm3. 20 per share

As on 7Jul23,WCE at 67.5c vs potential privatisation value of rm3. 20 if our PH goverment WISH to do so after completion 1.5 years later..

Who did this calculation? No need to consider the debts of RM 6.2 billion ah?

Minus the debts left RM 3.4b or RM 1.12 per share. Privatization maybe offer you lower price

Posted by ks5S > 2023-07-18 21:02 | Report Abuse

wise men say
only fools rush in
but i can't help
falling in love with wce

Posted by speakup > 2023-07-18 21:09 | Report Abuse

drop a bit already scared. what lah! better play FD then, no need scared!

Posted by Felix888 > 2023-07-18 21:28 | Report Abuse

Next quarter without the one time land disposal gain, expected result in red again.

Posted by albertyek > 2023-07-18 21:47 | Report Abuse

Biasalah shares like politics also.. any weakness sure kena taken advantage by the opposing team

Posted by ks5S > 2023-07-19 07:55 | Report Abuse

i travel to taiping yesterday and noticed wce highway link joining the changkat jering toll plaza is progressing very fast

Posted by ks5S > 2023-07-19 07:56 | Report Abuse

very soon this highway will help to ease the dangerous nse highway.

Posted by ks5S > 2023-07-19 07:58 | Report Abuse

the share correct more, i buy more to keep . good opportunity. i love wce

Posted by speakup > 2023-07-19 11:08 | Report Abuse

Now got chance for Sour Grapes to buy Wce cheap. But I think they won't buy cos they want to stay as Sour Grapes

Posted by eky7931 > 2023-07-19 12:24 | Report Abuse

The West Coast Expressway is expected to transform the tourism landscape in Perak and further make it accessible to domestic and international tourists in conjunction with Visit Perak Year 2024.

https://bernama.com/en/business/news.php?id=2207819

Posted by ks5S > 2023-07-19 12:25 | Report Abuse

the reason the grape is sour bcoz it is not ripe. therefore forever a loser

Posted by Nepo > 2023-07-19 14:13 | Report Abuse

Great opportunity to top up some tomorrow @ RM 0.68

Posted by Nepo > 2023-07-19 14:21 | Report Abuse

No bad news
Most probably is whipsaw

Posted by Nepo > 2023-07-19 14:22 | Report Abuse

Its price trend follow ytl

Posted by Siow Looi > 2023-07-19 14:34 | Report Abuse

Cheong time

Posted by VincentTang > 2023-07-19 15:01 | Report Abuse

My target price 3.5 by end of next year.

Posted by Felix888 > 2023-07-19 15:37 | Report Abuse

Old Pang, I was travelling to Kuala Selangor this morning via WCE bukit raja route.

Posted by speakup > 2023-07-19 16:22 | Report Abuse

Yes pls buy tomorrow so u no sour grape anymore

Posted by Hemsley > 2023-07-19 16:24 | Report Abuse

Btw, not the whole 233km are with toll ya. Only 18xkm if not mistaken.
Right, 60c please.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2023-07-19 17:03 | Report Abuse

Another crude method I adopt to estimate the worth of WCE is based on cumulative NPAT over 38 years which is the remaining years for the first 50 years concession. ( pls note : concession for 50 starting 2013, + 10 years if ROI is not met)

Toll collection FY 2025 = $984 mil
+ Non toll revenue. = $246 mil
Total revenue FY2025 $1.230 bil
(Toll / non toll revenue 80/20 basis per PLUS experience)
Assuming 5% growth in toll/revenue (lower than PLUS)
Assuming EBITDA margins 83% ( same as PLUS)
Assuming interest rate 5 %
Assuming discount rate of 5% (matching to revenue/ profit growth of 5% )

Cumulative revenue (38 years) at PRESENT VALUES = $1.23 bil x 38 years = $46.74 bil
EBITDA (base on 83%) =. $38.79 bil
Interest expense cumulative $5.5 bil
Dep/Amortisation $6.8 bil
PBT Cumm. (38.79 -5.5 - 6.8). = $26.49 bil
@ tax 27% , NPAT = $19.34 bil
NPAT attribute to shareholders of WCEHB is $19.34 x80% = $15.47 bil
Please note that NPAT is cumulative and at present value.
No of share after full subscription of warrant is 3.5 bil
Estimated valuation is $15.47/3.5 bil share = $4.42/ share . That’s about the price government will have to compensate if privatizating WCE.

Great Upside potential: toll rate increase every 3 years permitted under concession agreement, higher traffic growth than 5 % , etc

Above for general discussion only
—————————————————--

My basis of toll collection from 2025 posted earlier :
Felix of WCE recently estimated 300,000 daily road users once the expressway is fully completed next year. Assuming this man on the job is realistic on his numbers, we shall
make a guess of the WCE's revenue for FY 2025.
For simplicity, let's use present Plus toll rate Taiping to Bukit Raja (klang) as equivalent to WCE full stretch (Taiping - Banting):
Class 1 (passenger 2-axle car) $30.42
Class 2 (2 axle truck) $55.50
Class 3 (3 or more axles truck) $74.10
Class 4 (taxi) $15.17
Class 5 (buses) $22.80
Assuming composition of vehicle classes is (70/10/10/5/5), the weighted average toll rate for full stretch is therefore $36.15 per user or $0.155 per user per km ($36.15/233km)
We will have users travelling long and short haul. Let's assume, the average distance travelled per user is 1/4 of the full stretch ( 233/4 =58 km only)

Toll revenue FY 2025 = 300,000 daily users x 365 days x 58km x $0.155 = $984 millions !

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-07-19 17:40 | Report Abuse

Johnzhang,
Concession agreement of this express highway = 50 years after completion.
The agreement could be extended 10 more years if the stated IRR does not meet.

Concession agreement of this express highway = 50 years after completion.
You should not use 40 years.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2023-07-19 18:05 | Report Abuse

Zhuge,
You may read the attached NST news link of 2018. The minister said that the concession start from 2013, the year agreement was inked , not after completion. Had there been any change?

https://www.nst.com.my/amp/news/nation/2018/11/433191/50-year-concession-wce-necessary-lower-toll-rates

Posted by albertyek > 2023-07-19 22:37 | Report Abuse

Fulamak sudah RM4.42 from RM3.20 projection

Posted by Xiao Zheng She > 2023-07-19 23:16 | Report Abuse

Hopefully it can hit at least RM2 upon completion by next year end

Posted by danny123 > 2023-07-19 23:24 | Report Abuse

Turun kuat2
SELL

Posted by Xiao Zheng She > 2023-07-20 00:08 | Report Abuse

Quite funny to see all these sour grape

Posted by Edge > 2023-07-20 07:04 | Report Abuse

@ danny123 - so you think it will fall to what price?

Posted by speakup > 2023-07-20 07:52 | Report Abuse

those sour grapes should just buy now when is cheap so they dont need to act sour grapes forever