BERJAYA LAND BHD
KLSE (MYR): BJLAND (4219)
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0.325
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CS Tan
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Bettyem
654 posts
Posted by Bettyem > 2022-01-19 11:32 | Report Abuse
However, before we do that, I need to highlight something first. If you recall, my BJCORP investment thesis in Part 1 did not promise a 3,000% return - in fact, it merely justified how an investor in BJCORP’s shares today could achieve a 300% return. That stark 10x gap was the difference between the latter’s base-case scenario’s valuation, and the former’s blue-sky scenario’s valuation.
Hence, while I do think that it is possible for BJCORP to attain its fabled 3,000% upside, I want to make it clear that I’m not saying that it is definitely going to happen. While I’m pretty confident about the investment thesis behind the 300% upside, I only believe that this 3,000% upside thesis is just that - a blue-sky scenario investment thesis. It will work in the best of circumstances where all the stars align, but you shouldn’t be counting your chickens on it hatching.
Having said that, we don’t even need this 3,000% upside to materialize in order to justify an investment in BJCORP’s shares today. Remember, the 300% upside thesis is fairly likely to materialize - as I’ve quite clearly demonstrated in Part 1. Furthermore, as I’ve also shown there, there is also very little risk inherent in the investment idea on top of that. Just because we only get a 300% upside and not 3,000% doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t be grinning from ear-to-ear - that’s still a 5-year CAGR of 25%.
However, as we’ll see below, neither does that mean that the potential for a 3,000% upside is unlikely. In fact, I think there’s a pretty decent chance of it, even if it doesn’t actually end up materializing. Like I mentioned earlier, all I’m saying is don’t count your chickens before they hatch. Only expect a 300% upside from this investment - but if you do eventually get the 3,000% upside, consider that a bonus from papa Buffett.