Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-06-09 05:20 | Report Abuse

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2022/06/08/Crude-Oil-Price-Soars-on-Strong-Demand-Outlook-Tight-Markets-Post-Russian-Embargo.html

Crude Oil Price Soars on Bullish Demand Outlook, Tight Markets Post Russian Embargo

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-06-09 05:21 | Report Abuse

My Singapura Guru say today is the day!!! =D Showww Timeeee!!!!! =D

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-06-09 05:50 | Report Abuse

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-could-go-parabolic-putting-global-economy-in-critical-situation-says-trafigura-chief-11654697990?mod=home-page

Oil prices could go ‘parabolic’, putting global economy in ‘critical situation,’ says Trafigura chief
Last Updated: June 8, 2022 at 3:39 p.m. ET
First Published: June 8, 2022 at 10:19 a.m. ET

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-06-09 07:22 | Report Abuse

I personally feel many people in this forum bark the wrong tree.
HY and Petron are NOT crude oil producers who benefit or suffer from crude oil price up /down.
Instead, they are refiners who derive their profits from refining activity and selling the refined products. What matter to them is the difference between crude price and the refined products prices ie crack spread!
crude oil price movement (up or down) merely impact the inventory value of physical stock and outstanding crude oil purchase contract. The risk of crude price change can easily be covered by prudent hedging and this is what both Petron and HY do.
Also, the conversion cost of turning crude into refined products is merely about Usd2/bbl . Therefore, gross profit at refinery plant level is crack spread minus about usd2/bbl Crack spread level at USD28 today present insane amount of gross profit! Bear in mind that average crack from 2016-2021 was merely $6.39 and yet HY and Petron made reasonable level of profit.
Simple enough reasoning ?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-06-09 07:27 | Report Abuse

SINGAPORE MOGAS 92 UNLEADED (PLATTS) BRENT CRACK SPREAD FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT)NYMEX
28.823
D
USD
+1.394
(+5.08%)
MARKET OPEN
27.429
PREV
28.823
OPEN

Mogas 92 overnight increase 5.08% to USD 28.823.
MoneyMakers today Petronm and Hengyuan up or down?

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-06-09 07:36 | Report Abuse

@Sslee, Moneyamakers is going to tell you don’t be too happy, crack spread in heading for a brutal collapse like glove . Hehehe…..

Posted by bullmarket1628 > 2022-06-09 07:42 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Ravi Kumar > 2022-06-09 07:49 | Report Abuse

Posted by Johnzhang > 11 minutes ago | Report Abuse

We have a lot of crystal ball readers here. LOL. Gloves wakakaka what an example.

@Sslee, Moneyamakers is going to tell you don’t be too happy, crack spread in heading for a brutal collapse like glove . Hehehe…..

Posted by Sslee > 2022-06-09 07:52 | Report Abuse

Good morning Johnzhang,
I wonder why not many people ready to seize the opportunity when opportunity presents itself.

"Opportunities are like sunrises. If you wait too long, you miss them." William Arthur Ward

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-06-09 08:25 | Report Abuse

Good Morning Sslee,
don’t take these pessimists and naysayers seriously.
Some said what they said with an ulterior motive and I am not surprised if they are ‘employed’ to do so.
Some are inexperienced and yet not willing to learn new knowledge with open mind.
Some see ghost once and now see ghost everywhere and all the time .
That’s how we get all kinds of comments.

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-06-09 08:26 | Report Abuse

Brent Oil price $126 liao, today limit up!!!

Market is very simple, it's all about perception!!! High oil price, buy HY!!! =D

Posted by investor2021trading > 2022-06-09 08:33 | Report Abuse

well said Johnzhang n Sslee!

should b price uptrend today for PetDag, Hengyuan n Petron! if up above 4%, huat cai lah, everyone gets profit including MM!

Posted by Ahahah > 2022-06-09 08:44 | Report Abuse

@sslee if everyone can see the opportunity, then everyone will be millionaire now. That why there is a lot of poor people around.

Posted by Investmalaysiaa > 2022-06-09 08:46 | Report Abuse

If it’s so easy as mentioned, everyone will be millionaire d

Posted by kingkong99 > 2022-06-09 08:47 | Report Abuse

Goldman Damien Courvalin wrote in a note (available to professional subs) that "rising dislocation between crude and petroleum product prices finally reflects the current extreme tightness in global refining, driven by seasonality, disruptions as well as large-capacity closures." He said refinery tightness would keep refined product prices higher throughout the year and also noted more refinery closures are slated by the end of next year.

The Goldman analyst maps out that available global refinery capacity has been in a downward sloping curve since early 2020. This means as long as demand for refined products stays elevated, prices at the pump will remain higher because of the bottleneck in no new capacity coming online for a few years.

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-refining-bottleneck-culprit-your-gas-pump-pains

Posted by blackgold77 > 2022-06-09 09:00 | Report Abuse

this joker MM

oil price up, mention cost up
spread go down, mention spread down

cherrypicking news for what ya?
motive? think, people, think.

Posted by blackgold77 > 2022-06-09 09:00 | Report Abuse

today spread up, why no mention ya?
forgetful like rr88? forget yesterday see hammer or triangle?

Posted by investor2021trading > 2022-06-09 09:01 | Report Abuse

well said kingkong99, these will enlightened MM n encouraged Ahahah n Investmalaysiaa!

Posted by blackgold77 > 2022-06-09 09:01 | Report Abuse

i'm still waiting for RM5 as predicted by our prophet rr88
but he has since returned again although he said he won't before RM5

Posted by OTB > 2022-06-09 09:10 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by searchingmoney > 2022-06-09 09:32 | Report Abuse

bursa energy indices + 1.38 down from + 5. Cannot sustain, Red again...

Posted by Ahahah > 2022-06-09 09:33 | Report Abuse

@OTB my contact can not see what is the hedging formula but he know that April n May give an explosive result.

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-06-09 09:33 | Report Abuse

Last call~~~ Last chance~~~ no more under 6.30!!! =D

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-06-09 09:33 | Report Abuse

Brent Oil price $126 liao, today limit up!!!

Market is very simple, it's all about perception!!! High oil price, buy HY!!! =D

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-09 09:34 | Report Abuse

Almost 30min trading open, still red with barely any volume

Those early morning hoohaa actually got buy onot?? Or all just stuck high waiting exit opportunity

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-09 09:34 | Report Abuse

High crack spread historically unsustainable @ alrdy peaking/downtrending

Good Q2 (1-off) but bad/normal Q3 onwards doesnt deserve extra valuation..easily collapse back to rm4

Posted by OTB > 2022-06-09 09:42 | Report Abuse

Posted by Ahahah > 3 minutes ago | Report Abuse

@OTB my contact can not see what is the hedging formula but he know that April n May give an explosive result.
---------------
Thank you for your reply.
Please check out will there be a loss or a gain on refined margin derivative in Q2 2022.
If it is an explosive result in April and May 2022, I presume it is going to have a gain on refined margin derivatives.
Please check again.
Thank you.

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-06-09 09:43 | Report Abuse

Petron already leading the way 7.30 +0.15.... HY coming soon and will climb ahead of Petron!!!!

Posted by Ahahah > 2022-06-09 09:55 | Report Abuse

@OTB just check again but refuse to review. He only mentions to me that he took out all his FD to buy this share now.

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-06-09 09:57 | Report Abuse

Sapu C24 expire 27/01/2023

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-06-09 10:02 | Report Abuse

Petron already leading the way 7.36 +0.20.... HY coming soon and will climb ahead of Petron!!!!

Posted by OTB > 2022-06-09 10:03 | Report Abuse

Posted by Ahahah > 6 minutes ago | Report Abuse

@OTB just check again but refuse to review. He only mentions to me that he took out all his FD to buy this share now.
------------
Thank you for your help.
I will follow him.

Posted by Ravi Kumar > 2022-06-09 10:10 | Report Abuse

What I see for now potentially 20% upside to current Oil prices. Oil Palm has ben > 6k per ton for months. Expect the elevated prices for oil to stay till Q4

Posted by searchingmoney > 2022-06-09 10:59 | Report Abuse

Ah heng having phobia @ 6.33

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-09 11:00 | Report Abuse

Walao now even got fake insider story come out..never hint disaster Q1 but apparently know everything Q2 kikiki

Desperate want exit quick b4 massacre starts

Better not be here when syndicate run..floating shares soo low - few big sell orders totally bloodbath 20%++ within minutes

Posted by searchingmoney > 2022-06-09 11:00 | Report Abuse

formation of big M?

Posted by probability > 2022-06-09 11:15 | Report Abuse

FYI John

realized where u took this numbers

these are inventory write down (similar to offspec) not stockholding gain/loss..

Posted by probability > Jun 8, 2022 9:56 AM | Report Abuse X

Hi John,

just saw this, the figures here are too small to say that its purely caused by the crude oil price fluctuations as we usually see during Shell owner ship time

just $10/brl price change will easily cause USD 33m impact on bottom line

as such some other tools on hedging on their inventory is involved


Posted by Johnzhang > Jun 8, 2022 7:09 AM | Report Abuse

Hi Probability,
There were minimum inventory write down or gain during all the qtrs in 2020 and 2021, except Q1 2022. Here are the numbers :
Inventory (write down)/ Gain :
FY2020 - Q1 : $0, Q2 : $0, Q3: $0, Q4: ($28m)
FY2021 - Q1 : ($4m) , Q2: ($10m), Q3: ($1m) , Q4: $1m

Posted by probability > 2022-06-09 11:33 | Report Abuse

after ownership by HY, the stockholding gain/loss is not disclosed and embedded on the reported gross profit

Posted by TraderAlways > 2022-06-09 11:58 | Report Abuse

Petron scare to fly alone seeing HY hanging on to dear life.

Posted by VTrade > 2022-06-09 13:08 | Report Abuse

Already average is 20.85
Usd 12 itu tak termasuk dalam kot..

Posted by OTB > 2022-06-09 13:20 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by OTB > 2022-06-09 13:20 | Report Abuse

@Johnzhang,
You are very good in your research, please advise and comment on my posting.
Some of above information are taken from your notes.
Thank you.

Posted by probability > 2022-06-09 13:32 | Report Abuse

yes OTB, totally agree on your derivations

If any of these investors goes through the below links with detail information, they should relax and enjoy the next 2.5 months before Q2 results is released.

www.mercatusenergy.com/blog/bid/72741/an-introduction-to-crack-spread-hedging

www.cmegroup.com/education/articles-and-reports/introduction-to-crack-spreads.html

Frankly, at current HY price, I will only start to worry if avg crack spread of (Diesel + Gasoline + Kerosene) drops below 12 USD/brl

Taking out breakeven margin you need of 2 USD/brl and quarterly sales through put of 10.6 million, PBT will be:

= 10 USD/brl (net margin) x 10.6 million barrel sales / qtr
= MYR 466 million @ 4.4 exch rate to USD

Thats PAT of MYR 354 million , i,e EPS of RM 1.18 per qtr

.....

If on the other hand, HY share price dips before Q2 results and before crack spread plunging below 10 USD/brl, i will buy the CW in trenches even to the extent of going all in

Its simply too obvious to me what you can expect on HY performance going forward

Further more, like you mentioned above - Q2 22' results is already secured now as it trails by 1 month due to monthly hedging.



Posted by OTB > Jun 9, 2022 12:03 PM | Report Abuse

@Johnzhang, @Sslee and probability,

Investors are not confident on refined margin derivatives loss.

Posted by probability > 2022-06-09 13:40 | Report Abuse

In stock market we may see opposite scenario, where say by 'unbelievable event' that the crack spread dropped below 7 USD/brl by Aug 22...market will still push HY to above RM 17 looking at the EPS above RM 2 for Q2..

short term price movement we have no control, but HY destiny is kinda confirmed by end Aug 22

go for a world tour next 2 months and come back...lol!

Posted by silverwind > 2022-06-09 14:04 | Report Abuse

Correct me if I am wrong, since it's an opportunity loss, isn't it should be 20.85-12(since it is sold at this price) = 8.85 (opportunity loss). So the refined margin derivatives loss 10.6*25%*USD8.85*RM4.40 = 103.2M ?

Posted by OTB > 2022-06-09 14:08 | Report Abuse

Yes. You are right.
I made a small mistake.
Thank you.

Posted by OTB > 2022-06-09 14:18 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by nicholas99 > 2022-06-09 14:19 | Report Abuse

pang72 run already.

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-09 14:24 | Report Abuse

Aiyoyo derivative loss ofcos real loss lo..impossible to know hedging loss without knowing hedged price

Doesnt matter anyway b’coz high crack spread unsustainable @ wont last beyond Q2

HY just waiting to collapse as crack spreads drop

Posted by Sslee > 2022-06-09 14:34 | Report Abuse

Dear all,
I really do not have any data on HRC derivatives hedging. I miss the day when HRC did not involved in excessive hedging.

Below are some useful information in 2017 I gather from the management on financial performance and operation.

In the year 2017
Margin and financial performance:
Revenue: RM 11.583 billion. NPAT: RM 930 million with sales volume of 41.104 million barrels.
The Current Cost of Stock (CCS) refining margin in 2017 was USD 7.17 per barrel and FIFO margin was USD 8.39 per barrel including stock holding gain of USD 1.22 per barrel in 2017.
The other operation gain/loss mainly comprise of forex gains/losses on USD borrowing

Operation:
Average inventories holding of 30-40 days refer to time when HRC assumes ownership of crude inventories until they are refines into products and sold to customers.
The operation planning include having sufficient crude slate inventories on site for more than a week’s production and approx 1-2 weeks of product inventories to meet customers’ demand.
Our crude purchases can range between 300,000 to 1 million barrels.