Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-07 23:43 | Report Abuse

EPS/profit lower than prev qtr but alrdy goreng soo high..makes no sense at all

Posted by information > 2022-06-07 23:46 | Report Abuse

Valero hit all time high: 142 USD

https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/VLO#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-

Posted by subwayzzz > 2022-06-08 00:14 | Report Abuse

Nice analysis probability .

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-08 00:15 | Report Abuse

Subwayzzz, you should believe money makers

Posted by NoobRookie > 2022-06-08 00:22 | Report Abuse

Should I buy hengyuan? or wait for more drop

Posted by blackgold77 > 2022-06-08 00:56 | Report Abuse

lol those who believe the bogus accounts here deserve to lose all their money. just do your diligence, check back the history and see how these useless accounts disappear when price goes up, and then new names will appear again to fear monger. not too hard to observe this pattern, when they make money they disappear.

Posted by searchingmoney > 2022-06-08 06:54 | Report Abuse

For those who says Shanghai already free from lockdown

https://twitter.com/i/status/1533968232209522688
https://twitter.com/i/status/1533978296681082881

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-06-08 07:09 | Report Abuse

Hi Probability,
There were minimum inventory write down or gain during all the qtrs in 2020 and 2021, except Q1 2022. Here are the numbers :
Inventory (write down)/ Gain :
FY2020 - Q1 : $0, Q2 : $0, Q3: $0, Q4: ($28m)
FY2021 - Q1 : ($4m) , Q2: ($10m), Q3: ($1m) , Q4: $1m
FY2022 - Q1 : ($132m)
As such, you can eliminate the impact of inventory write down or gain on the qtrly results except for Q1 2022. Likewise, forex impact were minimum too.
We can now take that the qtr to qtr profit change are largely impacted by crack spread change and the hedging effect (be it crude or refined products hedging). Can you apply the time lag hedging effect to explain the qtr to qtr results ?

Yes, the crack spread i based on is Spore Mogas 92 unleaded (platts) Brent crack spread. Although HY has various refined product mix, the numbers can still be applied as a good reference as profit trend for refinery.
--------------------------------------------------------
Hi John,
(1) Firstly, if am not mistaken the crack spread you had obtained are purely from gasoline alone, excluding any effects from diesel (gasoil) crack spread which is about 40% of their yield. This means the actual refining margin could be slightly different than reported. Nevertheless, we assume these are representative.
(2) Secondly, we must realise that the cost of production is at least $2.5/brl assuming they sell about 10 m barrels per qtr. This would be the break even average crack spread margin we need.
If market average gross crack spread is say $ 3/brl for 2020, the NET crack spread would be $ 0.5/brl.
...............................
(3) The PBT reported are after the inventory gain / loss inclusion which swings wild easily. For just a $ 10/brl change between reporting period (or between buying and market pricing at the qtr closing date), the inventory gain/loss is:
= 3.3 m barrels (inventory) x $ 10 / brl change
= $ 33 m
to see the effects per barrel, simply divide $ 33m over its sales volume of 10m per qtr
= $33m / 10m brl
= $3.3 / brl
We can see from above (2) and (3) figures that the major factor that will be influencing its PBT is the inventory gain / loss and no longer the market crack spread (its simply too low to have any influence)
For 2021, though the margin is much better at say $7.5/brl, the NET refining margin is about $5/brl and its not too big compared to the inventory effects of $3.3/brl by a mere change of $10/brl in crude oil pricing.
In summary at such low refining margin, and volatile crude oil prices during this period (i believe it is the case in 2020 & 2021), its meaningless to derive any link between observed crack spread during this period and the reported PBT respectively.
You need a relatively bigger crack spread and much stable crude oil pricing to really see the effects on bottom line.
-------------------------------

Posted by Johnzhang > Jun 7, 2022 10:43 PM | Report Abuse
I would very much appreciate if you can try to explain the relationship of the quarterly results below using the time lag effect of hedging and crack spread . For me it is just too complex.
FY2020 Pre-tax profit - Q1 :($124 m), Q2 : $0 , Q3: $152m, Q4 : $227m
FY2021 Pre-tax profit - Q1 : $34m, Q2 : ($80m) , Q3: ($56m), Q4: $230m
FY2022 Pre-tax profit - Q1 : $85m

The month end crack spread figures are as below (in the order Jan to Dec) :
FY2020: 5.99, 4.91, (5.22), (3.35), (0.91), 2.36, (1.00) , 1.77, 4.54, 2.82, 1.51, 3.92 (Avg 1.44)

FY2021: 3.51, 6.39, 7.05, 7.34, 5.82, 7.08, 9.71, 7.56, 7.61, 12.83, 7.28, 11.21 (Avg 7.78)
FY2022: 12.42, 13.33, 14.85, 21.01, 26.69. (YTD may avg 17.67)

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-06-08 07:58 | Report Abuse

@Probability,
What you have so far explained about the hedging effect on qtr to qtr profit are all THEORETICALLY correct. No doubt about it.
I merely want to find out if it is PRACTICALLY the same in HY's case. Would appreciate if you can share the official or substantiated information that HY's is actually adhering to the hedging policy and discipline advocated by you.

Posted by searchingmoney > 2022-06-08 08:22 | Report Abuse

messages getting longer...discussion getting deeper...unless all of us are company's decision maker...otherwise...

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-06-08 08:37 | Report Abuse

Congratulations to the investors, sorry to the consumer.

"Energy Supply Chains Face Worst Crisis In Five Decades As Extensive Shortages Push Prices To Explode"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13TfWA8uCMc&t=505s

Posted by probability > 2022-06-08 09:56 | Report Abuse

Hi John,

just saw this, the figures here are too small to say that its purely caused by the crude oil price fluctuations as we usually see during Shell owner ship time

just $10/brl price change will easily cause USD 33m impact on bottom line

as such some other tools on hedging on their inventory is involved


Posted by Johnzhang > Jun 8, 2022 7:09 AM | Report Abuse

Hi Probability,
There were minimum inventory write down or gain during all the qtrs in 2020 and 2021, except Q1 2022. Here are the numbers :
Inventory (write down)/ Gain :
FY2020 - Q1 : $0, Q2 : $0, Q3: $0, Q4: ($28m)
FY2021 - Q1 : ($4m) , Q2: ($10m), Q3: ($1m) , Q4: $1m

Posted by probability > 2022-06-08 09:57 | Report Abuse

these are figures as good as zero

Posted by hng33 > 2022-06-08 09:58 | Report Abuse

Crack spread on correction mode, peak level already over, hengyuan technically weak, nope for rebound until next Q to proof it profit. Cut exposure now

Posted by Kim33 > 2022-06-08 10:09 | Report Abuse

Fxxk!!! petronm Naik tak ikut,petronm Turun ikut pulak

Posted by investor2021trading > 2022-06-08 10:20 | Report Abuse

crack spread dropped is temporary n an excuse to lower d share price! still haven't heard a dropped in price of fuel, gasoline in M'sia or worldwide! d price dropped these 2 days r due to price correction (up to fast)!

Posted by The St. Goreng > 2022-06-08 10:22 | Report Abuse

This is another crap stock. Trap bilis punya

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-08 10:30 | Report Abuse

Okay boleh tutup kedai

Posted by williamtkb > 2022-06-08 10:31 | Report Abuse

Not yet below rm5.90. No need to worry much.

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-06-08 10:43 | Report Abuse

0.10 coming.... sell~

Posted by investor2021trading > 2022-06-08 10:52 | Report Abuse

LMAO, shame on u! same old scary story repeating again n again!

Posted by investor2021trading > 2022-06-08 10:58 | Report Abuse

true chinese saying " big fish eat small fish"! u hv yr days, cheers!

Posted by Russel > 2022-06-08 10:59 | Report Abuse

As mentioned, When grandpa Koon buy call, you sell, when he sell call, you buy. "Time Tested Proven Strategy"...Don't take my words, go check his blog and read the chart to see yourself!

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-08 11:00 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-08 11:05 | Report Abuse

Still waiting syndicate run

HY very low floating shares..few big sell orders (syndicate run) easily 10%-20% bloodbath in 1day

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-08 11:08 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by investor2021trading > 2022-06-08 11:09 | Report Abuse

ok smart guy, go play PetDag! u will b played out by bigger fish!

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2022-06-08 11:13 | Report Abuse

again bottom fish at 6.10-6.13...

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-06-08 11:14 | Report Abuse

hng33 wants you to sell so uncle can collect ma

Posted by Investing_Bursa > 2022-06-08 11:19 | Report Abuse

Petronm really rebounding fast . Hy soon to come

Posted by investor2021trading > 2022-06-08 11:22 | Report Abuse

this is d only gud stock in uncertain time (inflation)! why happy make ppl lose money?

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-06-08 11:22 | Report Abuse

Crack spread correct down from USD32/bbl to USD27/bbl over the last few day is considered very normal after the spectacular surge from May. Don't have to cry until the house come down (some said cry father and cry mother). Just keep your mind cool and see the historic numbers below :
(note : Avg crack spread (based on Spore Mogas 92 unleaded (PLATTS) Brent ) for year 2013 to 2022 which are computed by averaging 12-months end closing numbers of each year)
FY2013 USD6.82/bbl
FY2014 USD8.03/bbl
FY2015 USD12.10/bbl
FY2016 USD8.04/bbl
FY2017 USD10.34/bbl
FY2018 USD5.82/bbl
FY2019 USD4.90/bbl
FY2020 USD1.44/bbl
FY2021 USD7.78/bbl
Average 2013-2021 : USD7.25/bbl
--------------------
Q1 2022 USD13.53/bbl
YTDMay22 USD17.67/bbl
Today USD27.43/bbl
You must go to match the earnings of Petron and HY to the respective years' crack value and convinced yourself that these refinaries still made reasonable/good amount of profit during those years when crack spreads were below USD8/bbl most of the time!
Barring any exceptional expenses or loss, Petron and HY only need crack spread of about USD2/bbl to breakeven.
So, no need to cry father, cry mother, cry grandfather and grandmother too !
Stay invested and avoid the trap of manipulators/sharks who are waiting for you to dump.
Numbers can not lie, human being do.

Posted by investor2021trading > 2022-06-08 11:29 | Report Abuse

looked at PMBTech? d dropped is natural (acceptable) but not fuel/gasoline industry when d cost of buying this essentials has spiked greatly!

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-06-08 11:33 | Report Abuse

I added more Petron and HY at bargain prices this morning and prepared to hold them for 6-9 months.

Posted by OTB > 2022-06-08 11:47 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-06-08 12:08 | Report Abuse

Yeah, sell now so uncle can buy more

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-08 12:08 | Report Abuse

Historically low crack spreads just proves high crack spread unsustainable

Oil fundamentals will squeeze spreads back to normal range

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-08 12:12 | Report Abuse

Good Q2 (1-off) but bad/normal Q3 onwards doesnt deserve extra valuation

Just need crack spread further drop (bad fundamental) & oil price drop (bad sentiment)..perfect storm 4 bloodbath

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-06-08 12:15 | Report Abuse

@MoneyMakers, when you are so bearish why are you here in this forum many times in a day ? Don’t waste time here and move to stock/forum that you are assured of making money.

Posted by stockwin > 2022-06-08 12:22 | Report Abuse

@Johnzhang
Well said. I added more HYC today.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-06-08 12:23 | Report Abuse

@OTB,
Many people said unsubstantiated things with motives in mind and purposes to achieve.
They are some choose to bury their head underground . Some don’t want to know the truth because knowing the truth hurts .
All kind of people around. So, avoid getting too irritated by them .

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-08 12:33 | Report Abuse

John HY epic collapse inevitable

No way im missing the show

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-06-08 12:34 | Report Abuse

Thanks for selling for uncle to collect

Posted by Silemak > 2022-06-08 12:36 | Report Abuse

@john, well said! I wonder why these ppl here to spread negativity if they hv no interest in this counter. Or they have bad intentions???

Posted by upshare > 2022-06-08 12:49 | Report Abuse

Oil price at 123...

Posted by Tobby > 2022-06-08 12:53 | Report Abuse

Best to take profit and buyback many times! Hengyuan will be in this formation until the next quarter result!

Posted by klee > 2022-06-08 12:58 | Report Abuse

Usa driving season started yesterday with their refineries valero energy n marathon petroleum surging n reached all time high....monkey makers dont know a thing.Further goldman predicted brent to top USD 140.00.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-06-08 13:04 | Report Abuse

MM,
You hope to watch an unhappy show in HY? That is sadistic characteristic . I advise you to see a psychiatrist soon . Hehehe….

MoneyMakers posted ;
John HY epic collapse inevitable
No way im missing the show

Posted by profit profits > 2022-06-08 13:05 | Report Abuse

look at the warrants ib added into hy and petronm, you can imagine how badly these 2 counters being manipulated . hope newbies avoid buying thouse toilet papers aka waran with their hard earned money. [NEVER BUY THOSE TOILET PAPERS ABOVE 10SEN, TO ME EVEN 5SEN IS ALREADY VERY EXPENSIVE]

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-08 13:16 | Report Abuse

John Have to watch these collapses to learn from them

Learn from glove collapse..current ASP/crack spread doesnt mattter

Only future spreads matter..history alrdy prove high crack spreads unsustainable