Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-07 16:45 |

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Posted by rr88 > 2022-06-07 16:47 | Report Abuse

BEARISH PENNANT formation is INTACT. Breakdown any day now. Tp 4.93. Stay away.

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-07 16:49 |

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Posted by VincentTang > 2022-06-07 16:57 | Report Abuse

BULLISH PENNANT formation is INTACT. Breakup any day now.

Posted by rr88 > 2022-06-07 16:58 | Report Abuse

Petron up 6.40 to 7.40, Hy up 6.20 to 6.40.
Petron drop back to 6.40, HY drop to 5.40.
Petron will end up unchanged, HY will lose rm1.00.

Its called a BEARISH CORRELATION.

Stay away!

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-07 16:58 | Report Abuse

Make HY rm5 and petron rm6

Posted by rr88 > 2022-06-07 16:59 | Report Abuse

I know what you know not..

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-07 17:01 | Report Abuse

Dont feel shy to kencing

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2022-06-07 17:03 | Report Abuse

https://newsus.cgtn.com/news/2022-06-02/U-S-truckers-face-diesel-fuel-shortage-1awqx6SHzVu/index.html

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2022-06-07 17:07 | Report Abuse

https://time.com/6182262/diesel-shortage-inflation/

Posted by rr88 > 2022-06-07 17:08 | Report Abuse

Once it drops to 5.40, you rush to jump in, you will kena again, because it will drop to 4.93. Because I know what you know not. I measure all the BEARISH PENNANT formation points, and it comes up neatly to 4.93 plus/minus 3 cents.

You see when a BEARISH PENNANT takes hold, its tp is crystal clear. What it doesnt tell you is when the breakdown n downward move will occur.

Wait patiently. Bcause i am waiting patiently too (while you are hu ha hu ha in n out, in n out).

You see sifu just watching quietly from a distance, while the naives hu ha hu ha buy n sell.

Posted by cactus81 > 2022-06-07 17:13 | Report Abuse

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NYMEX%3AGZ1!


Would like to confirm the above is the amount paid by goverment to HY?

Posted by VincentTang > 2022-06-07 17:21 | Report Abuse

I just bought a big hammer to break your what triangle lah, what bearish pennant lah.
Come on lah. Don't be st*pid lah. Do you think you just know technical chart meh.

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-06-07 17:24 | Report Abuse

Aiyo... rr88...you said so sibeh many times you out of here and only come back when HY at 5.00.... now only few days come back kakacaucau again.... sibeh annoying

Posted by probability > 2022-06-07 17:29 | Report Abuse

Refined products if not purchased at singapore hub crack spread locally by Shell, HY is free to sell it elsewhere at market rate

Shell retails locally buys this locally and Govn has to fork out as per subsidy structure

Govn has no way of dictating refined oil price as its free market for HY to sell elsewhere


Posted by cactus81 > Jun 7, 2022 5:13 PM | Report Abuse

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NYMEX%3AGZ1!


Would like to confirm the above is the amount paid by goverment to HY?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-07 17:46 |

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Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-07 18:09 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-07 18:22 | Report Abuse

Another ays and hiap teck in the making

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-07 18:27 | Report Abuse

Talking about FA and TA….talk cock better looo…bye guys

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-07 19:05 |

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Posted by Beltland > 2022-06-07 19:25 | Report Abuse

Money game ma ,players always will be there !

Posted by probability > 2022-06-07 19:36 | Report Abuse

www.cmegroup.com/education/articles-and-reports/introduction-to-crack-spreads.html

Example 1 — Fixing Refiner Margins Through a Simple 1:1 Crack Spread

In January, a refiner reviews his crude oil acquisition strategy and his potential gasoline margins for the spring. He sees that gasoline prices are strong, and plans a two-month crude-to-gasoline spread strategy that will allow him to lock in his margins. Similarly, a professional trader can analyze the technical charts and decide to “sell” the crack spread as a directional play, if the trader takes a view that current crack spread levels are relatively high, and will probably decline in the future.

In January, the spread between April crude oil futures ($50.00 per barrel) and May RBOB gasoline futures ($1.60 per gallon or $67.20 per barrel) presents what the refiner believes to be a favorable 1:1 crack spread of $17.20 per barrel. Typically, refiners purchase crude oil for processing in a particular month, and sell the refined products one month later.

The refiner decides to “sell” the crack spread by selling RBOB gasoline futures, and buying crude oil futures, thereby locking in the $17.20 per barrel crack spread value. He executes this by selling May RBOB gasoline futures at $1.60 per gallon (or $67.20 per barrel), and buying April crude oil futures at $50.00 per barrel.

Two months later, in March, the refiner purchases the crude oil at $60.00 per barrel in the cash market for refining into products. At the same time, he also sells gasoline from his existing stock in the cash market for $1.75 per gallon, or $73.50 per barrel. His crack spread value in the cash market has declined since January, and is now $13.50 per barrel ($73.50 per barrel gasoline less $60.00 per barrel for crude oil).

Since the futures market reflects the cash market, April crude oil futures are also selling at $60.00 per barrel in March — $10 more than when he purchased them. May RBOB gasoline futures are also trading higher at $1.75 per gallon ($73.50 per barrel). To complete the crack spread transaction, the refiner buys back the crack spread by first repurchasing the gasoline futures he sold in January, and he also sells back the crude oil futures. The refiner locks in a $3.70 per barrel profit on this crack spread futures trade.

The refiner has successfully locked in a crack spread of $17.20 (the futures gain of $3.70 is added to the cash market cracking margin of $13.50). Had the refiner been un-hedged, his cracking margin would have been limited to the $13.50 gain he had in the cash market. Instead, combined with the futures gain, his final net cracking margin with the hedge is $17.20 — the favorable margin he originally sought in January.

Posted by probability > 2022-06-07 19:50 | Report Abuse

The above is an example for hedging on refining margin swap that resulted in derivative gain as the crack spread dipped from $17.20 to $13.50.

On the other hand, if the crack spread had risen instead, the loss opportunity for having a higher margin would have reflected as derivative loss.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-06-07 19:50 | Report Abuse

The RON97 is not subsidise so everyone are free to pump RON97 at RM 4.70 ( week 2 june- 8 june) at the petrol station.

Government to do not owned any money, Government money is tax money collected from tax collection.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-06-07 19:58 | Report Abuse

By the way RM4.70 per liter is RM (4.70 x 159)= RM 747.3 per barrel = USD(747.3/4.4)= USD 169.84 per barrel.

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-07 20:06 |

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Posted by TanDavid88 > 2022-06-07 20:38 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-07 20:41 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-07 20:42 |

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Posted by TanDavid88 > 2022-06-07 20:54 | Report Abuse

I post only good information and good news on the stock.
Saya tak bolih bad mouth the stock.
It is haram for me.
Saya hanya harap semua orang untung banyak.
Saya tak suka kawan rugi di forum ini.
Saya ada good heart and no bad intention.

Posted by GrowthCapitalist > 2022-06-07 20:56 | Report Abuse

Guys don't flare so much on the price dropped. Its the market sentiment doing the job. Basically, we are seeing refined oil crunching especially diesel. Nothing to worry about. From TA point of view, HY and Petron are intact and respectively reflecting based on the recent earning.

I believe if HY produce reasonable QR, i'm sure it would soar double from where it is. Comparatively to other sector, only few sectors are on uptrend. HY is still sideway and hopefully it's a consolidation and break up higher soon.

As long the demand of refined oil needed just hold to it! Tell me which sector is reliable on bursa apart of OnG specifically on commodities.

Posted by VTrade > 2022-06-07 21:24 | Report Abuse

HY 真是 强股恒强 恒yuan

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-07 21:33 |

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Posted by OTB > 2022-06-07 22:08 |

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Posted by OTB > 2022-06-07 22:12 |

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Posted by OTB > 2022-06-07 22:21 | Report Abuse

断人财路如杀人父母，罪大恶极，有报应.

Posted by OTB > 2022-06-07 22:30 |

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Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-06-07 22:43 | Report Abuse

@Probability,
You have made it simple enough for some of us to understand the hedging effect. Thanks for your effort.
Hedging is indeed meant for covering the risk of an actual position going the opposite way due to time lag of 2 related transactions (ie timing of purchasing of crude and selling the refined products).
I fully agree to the basis put forth by you PROVIDED HY is consistent and discipline in its hedging policy in the manner illustrated by you. Imprudent hedging may results permanent losses or opportunity losses. I try to play devil's advocate in finding out if HY is indeed prudent before I decide to increase or shift my position in this counter.

I would very much appreciate if you can try to explain the relationship of the quarterly results below using the time lag effect of hedging and crack spread . For me it is just too complex.
FY2020 Pre-tax profit - Q1 :($124 m), Q2 : $0 , Q3: $152m, Q4 : $227m
FY2021 Pre-tax profit - Q1 : $34m, Q2 : ($80m) , Q3: ($56m), Q4: $230m
FY2022 Pre-tax profit - Q1 : $85m

The month end crack spread figures are as below (in the order Jan to Dec) :
FY2020: 5.99, 4.91, (5.22), (3.35), (0.91), 2.36, (1.00) , 1.77, 4.54, 2.82, 1.51, 3.92 (Avg 1.44)
FY2021: 3.51, 6.39, 7.05, 7.34, 5.82, 7.08, 9.71, 7.56, 7.61, 12.83, 7.28, 11.21 (Avg 7.78)
FY2022: 12.42, 13.33, 14.85, 21.01, 26.69. (YTD may avg 17.67)

All data above are published and can be verified.
Thanking you in advance for your effort.
------------------------------------
Probability Posted :
The below is to help one understand, why i simply just see the difference in crack spread to derive the hedging loss between months
......................................
say in Feb 22' , the below was the pricing:
Crude: 100 $/brl
Avg refined oil: 108 $/brl
Crack spread: 8 $/brl (hedged, meaning they buy crude & sell prod forward - non physical)
in Mar 22' (when physical transaction takes place):
Crude: 105 $/brl
Avg refined oil: 125 $/brl
Crack spread: 20 $/brl
Hedging loss/gain on Crude: 105 - 100 = 5 $/brl
Hedging loss/gain on Refined oil: 108 - 125 = - 17 $/brl
Net hedging loss / gain = - 17 + 5
= - 12 $/brl
The above value is the same as Crack Spread in Feb 22' - Crack spread in Mar 22' : 8 - 20
= - 12 $/brl
Both way you derive the same figure
Posted by probability > Jun 7, 2022 9:29 AM | Report Abuse X
example, say gross margin as per actual crack spread chart is as per below:
Dec 21': 7 $/brl
Jan: 8 $/brl,
Feb: 8 $/brl
Mar: 20 $/brl
Q1 gross profit: 3.5m brl/month x ( 8 + 8 + 20)
Q1 profit after hedging loss gain: 3.5 m brl/mth x ( 7 + 8 + 8)
Apr: 24 $/brl,
May: 24 $/brl
June: 30 $/brl
Q2 gross profit: 3.5m brl/month x ( 24 + 24 + 30)
Q2 profit after hedging loss gain: 3.5 m brl/mth x ( 20 + 24 + 24)
why worry on hedging loss / gain? Its just the effects of lagging 1 month trailing 3 months profit

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-07 22:44 |

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Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-07 22:44 |

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Posted by OTB > 2022-06-07 22:57 | Report Abuse

I do not attack anyone in I3.
I do not talk bad about any stock.
I post my article sincerely and honestly.
I cannot guarantee the stock sure win.
I did not point a gun to force anyone here to buy.
The final decision to buy is always yours.

All readers here know my style, only a few naysayers (less than 10 people) attack me.
Winning is not so important to me now because I have enough money to last at least 1 to 2 generations if my children do not gamble away my wealth.

Posted by OTB > 2022-06-07 23:00 |

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Posted by OTB > 2022-06-07 23:04 | Report Abuse

I was told qqq3333 lost until no more money on Serbadk.

Posted by kcchongnz > 13 hours ago | Report Abuse

There was a post dedicated to you especially.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/kcchongnz/2022-05-24-story...

So, how much have you made now?

Posted by OTB > 2022-06-07 23:14 |

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Posted by OTB > 2022-06-07 23:20 |

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Posted by OTB > 2022-06-07 23:28 |

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Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-07 23:30 |

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Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-07 23:30 | Report Abuse

Aiyaa dont fighting long2 annoy other members..focus fundamentals better

High crack spread unsustainable @ wont last beyond Q2

Good Q2 (1-off) but bad/normal Q3 onwards doesnt deserve extra valuation..easily collapse back to rm4

Posted by probability > 2022-06-07 23:39 | Report Abuse

Hi John,

(1) Firstly, if am not mistaken the crack spread you had obtained are purely from gasoline alone, excluding any effects from diesel (gasoil) crack spread which is about 40% of their yield. This means the actual refining margin could be slightly different than reported. Nevertheless, we assume these are representative.

(2) Secondly, we must realise that the cost of production is at least $2.5/brl assuming they sell about 10 m barrels per qtr. This would be the break even average crack spread margin we need.

If market average gross crack spread is say $ 3/brl for 2020, the NET crack spread would be $ 0.5/brl.
...............................


(3) The PBT reported are after the inventory gain / loss inclusion which swings wild easily. For just a $ 10/brl change between reporting period (or between buying and market pricing at the qtr closing date), the inventory gain/loss is:
= 3.3 m barrels (inventory) x $ 10 / brl change
= $ 33 m

to see the effects per barrel, simply divide $ 33m over its sales volume of 10m per qtr
= $33m / 10m brl
= $3.3 / brl


We can see from above (2) and (3) figures that the major factor that will be influencing its PBT is the inventory gain / loss and no longer the market crack spread (its simply too low to have any influence)

For 2021, though the margin is much better at say $7.5/brl, the NET refining margin is about $5/brl and its not too big compared to the inventory effects of $3.3/brl by a mere change of $10/brl in crude oil pricing.


In summary at such low refining margin, and volatile crude oil prices during this period (i believe it is the case in 2020 & 2021), its meaningless to derive any link between observed crack spread during this period and the reported PBT respectively.

You need a relatively bigger crack spread and much stable crude oil pricing to really see the effects on bottom line.




Posted by Johnzhang > Jun 7, 2022 10:43 PM | Report Abuse

I would very much appreciate if you can try to explain the relationship of the quarterly results below using the time lag effect of hedging and crack spread . For me it is just too complex.
FY2020 Pre-tax profit - Q1 :($124 m), Q2 : $0 , Q3: $152m, Q4 : $227m
FY2021 Pre-tax profit - Q1 : $34m, Q2 : ($80m) , Q3: ($56m), Q4: $230m
FY2022 Pre-tax profit - Q1 : $85m

The month end crack spread figures are as below (in the order Jan to Dec) :
FY2020: 5.99, 4.91, (5.22), (3.35), (0.91), 2.36, (1.00) , 1.77, 4.54, 2.82, 1.51, 3.92 (Avg 1.44)

FY2021: 3.51, 6.39, 7.05, 7.34, 5.82, 7.08, 9.71, 7.56, 7.61, 12.83, 7.28, 11.21 (Avg 7.78)
FY2022: 12.42, 13.33, 14.85, 21.01, 26.69. (YTD may avg 17.67)

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-07 23:40 |

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