Yesterday break 200 SMA, most trader (if not the last batch) would have left, those who remain must have read sifu rr88 buy call and play on rebound! ______________________________________________________________________________
Tobby
Haix! My timing not very good already! After i sold all yesterday, then Hengyuan turn green! What a luck!
Ought to be cautious. Bursa value remains 1.8B and not enough for the pool sharing. Set the investment right. 8-15%. Take all you want if you have went in the right timing. Don't buy and chase unless you are very certain.
After a 36% fall from peak, is Hengyuan worth a second look?/ theedgemarkets.com
June 21, 2022 20:05 pm +08
KUALA LUMPUR (June 21): Share price of Hengyuan Refining Co Bhd has had a roller coaster ride. The stock soared to a near four-year high of RM7.40 in the middle of last month, riding the positive sentiment spurred by expectations of higher oil consumption as travelling activities pick up.
But soon it fell to a low of RM4.34 on Monday amid a global selldown of equities after the US Federal Reserve raised interest rate by 75 basis points. The stock rebounded strongly on Tuesday, climbing up 36 sen or 8.29% to RM4.70, valuing it at RM1.41 billion.
Market sentiment aside, judging by the current landscape of the oil refining industry, Hengyuan's earnings prospects are likely to be rosy in the coming quarters, if not longer.
To put things into perspective, Bloomberg data showed that the margin, or crack spread, between crude oil and refined products have widened substantially since the start of the year.
Singapore Dubai FCC Refinery Margin (Singapore crude oil refining margin data) surged to US$33.38 per barrel as at June 20, up nearly six-fold from US$5.81 on Dec 31, 2021. The margin spread hit an all-time high of US$35.18 early this month. It was barely four US cents a year ago as the benchmark showed.
Meanwhile, Asia Tapis Crude Oil 211 crack spread spiked more than five times to US$37.047 per barrel on Tuesday (June 21) as at press time, up from US$7.155 per barrel as at Dec 31, 2021.
Another index, US Mid-Continent WCS Crude Oil 321 Crack Spread, also jumped by US$47.61 or 154% to US$78.517 per barrel, from US$30.909 per barrel at the beginning of this year.
Brent crude oil price stood at US$115.63 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude stood at US$111.85 a barrel as at press time. Year-to-date, Brent crude oil has gained US$37.85 or 49% from US$77.78 a barrel at end-2021, while WTI crude oil has rallied US$39.07 or 54% from US$72.78 a barrel.
Using the above as yardstick, oil refiners are expected to enjoy fat profit margins.
The one fundamental factor that has shaped the existing industry landscape is the tight refining capacity worldwide due to the sanctions against Russia's oil production, which is likely to persist.
"We think the sanctions and supply challenge around Russia's refined products will persist even if the war is over tomorrow," Oaklands Path Capital Management Ltd chief executive officer and chief investment officer of Ngoi Se Chai commented.
Russia is the world's second-largest exporter of refined products, said Ngoi, with a total refining capacity of six million barrels per day (bpd), but many refineries in Russia have stopped producing due to limited demand for their products after the sanctions imposed by the Europe Commission and the US.
Secondly, Ngoi highlighted that China's policy to cut its export quota for refined oil products is also unlikely to change as the country has mapped out a national carbon emission reduction plan.
He noted that the Chinese government halved its oil product export quota in the first quarter of this year in a bid to reduce its carbon emissions.
On top of that, Ngoi said after several years of downturn post 2014, global refining capacity has been reduced by 1m bpd since 2019.
Market sentiment aside, judging by the current landscape of the oil refining industry, Hengyuan's earnings prospects are likely to be rosy in the coming quarters, if not longer.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
param1
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Posted by param1 > 2022-06-21 16:37 | Report Abuse
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