Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-05 10:07 | Report Abuse

Yes. Correct?

Income

Are you willing to lose money on a trade? If not, then don't take it. You can only win if you're not afraid to lose.

3 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-05 10:09 | Report Abuse

Gambling mah. Correct?

qqq3333

ular..............this company always at risk due to factors outside its control, and madmad take so much futures contracts................................................................

1 minute ago

Posted by vinc3362 > 2022-09-05 10:09 | Report Abuse

UlarSawa

Yes. True also. If you dont sell how can the price go up Haiyoh. Correct?

6 seconds ago
______________________________________
Ha ha ha ........ Looks like Ular also knows the game that is being played.

Or are we being played by you ? : )

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-05 10:12 | Report Abuse

Thats what ppl saying mah. Haiyoh. correct?


vinc3362

UlarSawa

Yes. True also. If you dont sell how can the price go up Haiyoh. Correct?

6 seconds ago
______________________________________
Ha ha ha ........ Looks like Ular also knows the game that is being played.

Or are we being played by you ? : )

2 minutes ago

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-05 10:13 | Report Abuse

I did not say I am professional but I just work out as below:

H1 2022, RM 982,535,000 profit before tax with volume of 21 million barrel.
Per barrel PBT is USD 982,535,000/(21,000,000 × 4.4) = USD 10.63 per barrel which I think is acheivabled for H2.

As of profit after tax and EPS let the professional work out the figure.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-05 10:17 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-05 10:20 | Report Abuse

Ular,
It just happen I view PE 10 as a fair value.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-05 10:22 | Report Abuse

And ular please work out from PBT of RM 1,965,070,000 what should be the profit after tax and EPS?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-05 10:24 | Report Abuse

Now PE 1.73 base on current price 4.84
If PE 10 then 10/1.73 x 4.84 = 27.98
Walao like siapa mau follow one. Can sapu all the saham available in the market. lagi mau tunggu apa lah. Millionaire in the making soon. Correct?

Posted by IshraaqNor > 2022-09-05 10:29 | Report Abuse

Rusia menangguhkan pembukaan semula Nord Stream, dan ini akan menyebabkan permintaan dan harga O&G menaik

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-says-nord-stream-gas-supplies-still-risk-stoking-european-fears-2022-09-02/

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-05 10:34 | Report Abuse

Ular panlai,
To me HRC is now super undervalued.
Ular nak kasi PE berapa untuk ular punya TP?

Posted by tehka > 2022-09-05 10:36 | Report Abuse

Dear sslee, PE 10, sounds good!

Posted by myongcc5 > 2022-09-05 10:36 | Report Abuse

Dirt cheap but do not buy if you hv no holding power

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-05 10:37 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-05 10:37 | Report Abuse

MM do you know what is the Q1 and Q2 hedging losses? And yet HRC make H1 2022, a profit before tax of RM 982,535,000.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-05 10:37 | Report Abuse

Ular only can agak agak what market PE leh. Less than 2 lah. Kira high already. Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-05 10:40 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-05 10:40 | Report Abuse

Ular itu MM favorite punya TP RM 3 ikut 2021 itu PE berapa?
Ikut saja dia punya PE untuk tahun 2022.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-05 10:41 | Report Abuse

When Shell sold to HY that time how was the profit ada good kah. why can distribute high divvy every year. What happen when changed ownership. Haiyoh. Correct?

qqq3333

That is why shell sell to them for $ 2 a share

2 minutes ago

Posted by tehka > 2022-09-05 10:43 | Report Abuse

Dear ular, yes can accept. PE 1.72 now. PE 2 in short term, PE 10 in longer term sounds nice. Thank you

UlarSawa

If Ular say Ular like PE 2 you can accept or not. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-05 10:43 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-05 10:46 | Report Abuse

If PE 2 then 2/1.73 x 4.84 = 5.96 . this is the upper limit for ular. Then last rally pun ada hit 6.08 leh. sudah hit ceiling leh. Correct?


tehka

Dear ular, yes can accept. PE 1.72 now. PE 2 in short term, PE 10 in longer term sounds nice. Thank you

UlarSawa

If Ular say Ular like PE 2 you can accept or not. Haiyoh. Correct?


5 seconds ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-05 10:48 | Report Abuse

Now important is to find the lower PE limit. Ular pick PE 1.50 for lower limit.

1.50/1.73 x 4.84 = 4.20

Boleh accept or not.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-05 10:50 | Report Abuse

Aiyoyo ular,
Itu 2021 EPS baru RM 0.28 kalau TP RM 3 itu PE (3/0.28)= 10.71

Posted by rr88 > 2022-09-05 10:52 | Report Abuse

Its over. Pls abort any plan to enter at any price.

It was a DEAD CAT BOUNCE 4.00 to 6.00.
Will return to 4.00 as its MACD will stage a dead cross in a day or two.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-05 10:53 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by tehka > 2022-09-05 10:54 | Report Abuse

Dear Ular, yes PE 1.5 also can accept.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-05 10:54 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-05 10:57 | Report Abuse

Wei you just now said Ular ada motive collect TP from the forum and now you accept Ular punya TP. Ungrateful person. Haiyoh. Correct?


tehka

Dear Ular, yes PE 1.5 also can accept.

1 minute ago

Posted by myongcc5 > 2022-09-05 10:58 | Report Abuse

There bound to be some losses in certain quarter but making good $$$ on av in a yr.

Posted by myongcc5 > 2022-09-05 10:58 | Report Abuse

Tis is the nature of refinery business

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-05 10:59 | Report Abuse

Got lah. electric cars not petrol cars. So refinery pun mau ove capacity soon kah. Haiyoh. Correct?

qqq3333

No one drive car already?

36 seconds ago

Posted by probability > 2022-09-05 11:00 | Report Abuse

HY refinery margin update - 2/09/22 (DIESEL CRACK BLASTED ABOVE 50$/brl!)
...........

Diesel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1!/

Jet Fuel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

Gasoline Mogas 92: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
Gasoline Mogas 95 premium: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

From above:

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 50.36/bbl
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 38.40/bb
3. Gasoline Mogas 95 at 35% yield, cracks USD (4.07 + 3.71) / bbl
4. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 7.77/bbl

Gross refining margin:

= (0.46 x 50.4 ) + (0.07 x 38.40) + (0.35 x 7.77)+ (0.12 x 7.77)
= 23.18 + 2.70 + 2.72 + 0.93
= US $ 29.5 / brl

Gross Profit :

= (10.7 million barrel sales per qtr) x ( US $29.5/brl) x (MYR 4.45/USD)
= 1.404 Billion MYR
...................


Gross refining margin (Gasoline hedged at 12.7 USD/brl):

= (0.46 x 50.4 ) + (0.07 x 38.40) + (0.35 x 12.7)+ (0.12 x 7.77)
= 23.18 + 2.70 + 4.44 + 0.93
= US $ 31.2 / brl

Gross Profit at above derived present refining margin

= (10.7 million barrel sales per qtr) x ( US $31.2/brl) x (MYR 4.45/USD)
= 1.485 Billion MYR
...................

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-05 11:00 | Report Abuse

Itu MM Q1 belum keluar dia sudah kasi TP RM 3 ikut EPS tahun 2021.
Sekarang Q1 dan Q2 sudah keluar dia masih belum tahu itu Q1 dan Q2 banyak cantik dan masih TP 3.00.

Posted by myongcc5 > 2022-09-05 11:01 | Report Abuse

Professor Prob, guess u r exhausted due to overworked. Thanks

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-05 11:02 | Report Abuse

So tunggu Q4 keluar MM punya TP masih RM 3.00.

Posted by myongcc5 > 2022-09-05 11:03 | Report Abuse

Oops, I dislike crowd. Leaving forum fr good. All the best to genuine investors.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-05 11:04 | Report Abuse

myongcc5, of different time zone, yup whatever need to be said - done

market is voting a machine...and it has time on its side

Posted by myongcc5 > Sep 5, 2022 11:01 AM | Report Abuse

Professor Prob, guess u r exhausted due to overworked. Thanks

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-05 11:04 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-05 11:06 | Report Abuse

wei you sound like hardcore shareholder leh. Then you shouldnt come out leh. Only those everyday pun look at the share price one need to come out leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

myongcc5

Oops, I dislike crowd. Leaving forum fr good. All the best to genuine investors.

41 seconds ago

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-05 11:06 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by myongcc5 > 2022-09-05 11:07 | Report Abuse

Thanks to the hard work of SSlee too. All the best.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-09-05 11:07 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by SinGor > 2022-09-05 11:08 | Report Abuse

Half hearted technical rebound. More downside needed for a bottom

Posted by myongcc5 > 2022-09-05 11:09 | Report Abuse

Dragon, I admit I hate yr style. No substance yet busybody. But can't help to admire yr energy. Hope u talk less but learn to make more $$__

Posted by myongcc5 > 2022-09-05 11:09 | Report Abuse

God bless you

Posted by myongcc5 > 2022-09-05 11:10 | Report Abuse

I hv other matter to attend to. Sorry

Posted by probability > 2022-09-05 11:11 | Report Abuse

@Zhuge,

Among the two possibility below derived by sslee, only gasoline fits the hedged crack value as found in 2021 annual report page 130 where the max margin was around 12 USD/brl.

The lowest crack spread closing on 30 June 2022 is only for gasoline around 31USD/brl (others like Diesel & Jet Fuel is way higher).
Only using the lowest mark to market crack spread end of June 22, you can derived the low value hedged crack spread as per annual report of about 12 USD/brl.

Using gasoline the hedged barrels is 18 millions as derived by sslee below.


Since we have passed 2 qtrs in 2022, the average crack spread hedged on the latest notional amount of USD 226 million is much higher than what was reported at end of 2021 (on annual report). It has been displaced by maturing hedged contract of gasoline at 0.75 million barrels/month x 6 = 4.5 million, with fresh ones as per market crack spread in future for gasoline in Q1 and Q2.


Posted by Sslee > Sep 2, 2022 8:59 AM | Report Abuse

Dear probability,
The outstanding Refining margin swap contract as on 30/06/2022
Notional amount: USD 226,945,000
Assets: RM 261,065,000
Liabilities: RM 1,751,332,000
Hence unrealized loss RM (1,751,332,000-261,065,000) = RM 1,490,267,000

On 30/06/2022:
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578
Diesel crack spread: USD 56.125
Average of the two USD (31.578+56.125)/2= USD43.85
USD to MYR: 4.397

V: Volume of outstanding refining margin swap contract (Barrels)
A: Average outstanding margin per barrel hedged (USD)

Equation:
from notional amount: V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A
from unrealized loss: V x (43.85 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397

226,945,000 x (43.85 – A) = 338,928,133 x A
9,951,538,250= (338,928,113 + 226,945,000) x A
A= 9,951,538,250/565,873,133
A= 17.586
V=226,945,000/17.586
V=12,904,746

If you use only Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.58
Equation:
V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A
V x (31.58 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397

226,945,000 x (31.58 – A) = 338,928,133 x A
7,166,923,100= (338,928,113 + 226,945,000) x A
A= 7,166,923,100/565,873,133
A= 12.665
V=226,945,000/12.665
V= 17,918,718



Posted by Zhuge_Liang > Sep 5, 2022 10:57 AM | Report Abuse

Post by probability
The reason why HY shows large unrealized loss on Cost of hedging reserve (COHR) is because it has around 18 million barrels of refined products, e.g Gasoline crack spread that is hedged for next 24 months at 12.7 USD/brl margin.


This is the Refining Margin Swap Contract (RMSC) shown as USD 227 million (USD 12.7 crack x 18 million barrels hedged).
-------------------
@probability,
I have 2 questions on your posting here.
1.) 18 million of refined products hedged at USD12.70/brl.
Is it all gasoline only ? No diesel and jet fuel or mixture.

2.) 18 million of refined products hedged at USD12.70/brl.
Is this hedging for 1 year or 2 years ?

Please advise.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-09-05 11:17 | Report Abuse

Thank you probability.
Noted.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-05 11:17 |

Post removed.Why?