Posted by probability > 2022-09-04 14:34 | Report Abuse

no theory is perfect ..but its definitely better than speculating without any basis
investing is all about taking calculated risk

we have done the calculation, its up to you to take the risk
Posted by stockraider > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Thats why i say....u cannot inferred from SSLEE simply guessing by trying very to fit into the margin for gasoline loh!

Dynamic can or has change mah!
Like type of crude, processes of refinery and management intention to churn type of product mix etc loh!

Any misuse of assumption & data will derail this SSLEE very crude model mah!

The possibility of SSLEE model is highly inaccurate is possible mah!

Lu tau boh ??

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 14:35 | Report Abuse

You see the reporters very panlai or not. Tulis explosive EPS 222sen big big. Derivative loss pun never mentioned at all. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-04 14:35 | Report Abuse

The hedge derivaties have amt hedged, price hedged and mature date contract.
On mature date, it will be by cash settlement since it is a swap contract. Thus what you loss/gain in the hedged cash settlement will be offset by your physical better/poorer margin earned. (Not cash yet because of physical payment term given to customers and also payment term allowed by your suppliers. Receivables and payables)

Posted by SinGor > 2022-09-04 14:36 | Report Abuse

Give 10sen to spread Crack, people dumping like crazy thinking HY is moving into illegal Biz

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-04 14:38 | Report Abuse

MM just answer one question what is the finished products produce by HRC from refining the crude oil?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 14:38 | Report Abuse

Theory is just base on own assumptions and many times also not correct leh. You see local IB analists with so much so called experience on theory pun made wrong assumptions and keep changing TP leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-04 14:40 | Report Abuse

i3lurker,
Your advice is well received and noted.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-04 14:40 | Report Abuse

we actually want raider to lead the comrades...but unfortunately he is a broken soldier....extremely pessimistic and apprehensive lor! :(

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 14:41 | Report Abuse

Haiyoh you mari kah. Now you think HY is in illegal bz kah. Haiyoh. Correct?

SinGor

Give 10sen to spread Crack, people dumping like crazy thinking HY is moving into illegal Biz

4 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 14:42 | Report Abuse

Raider has a mission that is saving AhFah son leh. Haiyoh. Correct?


probability

we actually want raider to lead the comrades...but unfortunately he is a broken soldier....extremely pessimistic and apprehensive lor! :(

51 seconds ago

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 14:43 | Report Abuse

The other point is hedging will definitely result in Profit or LOSS in the case of Hengyuan mah!

Take June QTR....hengyuan reported more than Rm 600m losses but its hedging losses is more than Rm 1 billion mah! Net losses exceed Rm 400m loh!
But hengyuan play magic reported operation profit of Rm 600m & ignore the Rm 1 billion hedging losses loh!

Now say base on 3rd qtr sept 2022 coming report....Hengyuan will report operation losses due to negative crack spread....but for its derivative, even positive contribution if any...should it not cover the existing outstanding hedging losses leh ??

That means Hengyuan P&L will still report a huge operating losses for SEPT QTR....whereas the hedging gain will will use to cover some its outstanding culmulative losses mah!

Thus HY will not have a position of Head win N Tail also win....like playing magic loh!

Petron P&L is different loh....refinery operation losses in q3....can be covered by hedging gain plus retail profit of petrol station mah!

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 14:44 | Report Abuse

Ular now wondering after so much of debate about hedging loss at here. Will the reporters pickup the pieces from here then start to write about HY hedging loss in the coming days. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 14:45 | Report Abuse

If the reporters also ada write such articles then Ular can assume they also copy from I3 forum lah. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by probability > 2022-09-04 14:46 | Report Abuse

HEDGING can never results with loss (this is a simple common sense that MIRACULOUSLY many in i3 STILL cannot understand)....

When its a loss, COHR only shows the 'greater opportunity lost' compared to smaller opportunity gained by hedging - by locking down the margin.

When its a gain, COHR only shows the 'benefit of opportunity locked' compared to if you had not locked the opportunity available earlier.

only reason HY had ever reported loss earlier is becoz they only hedge 20% of their sales volume and when they could not find opportunity to hedge at good cracks from futures

Posted by eagerinvestor > 2022-09-04 14:46 | Report Abuse

hy profit or loss is based on margin not derivatives. so yes it can make money when head win tail also win when got margin.

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-04 14:47 | Report Abuse

sslee
I bet with you that BOD of HRC will tell you "Yes"

if answer is No or evasive... ...
you just cut off Dragon punya kukujiao
and immediately inside AGM click SELL on all your HRC shares

and you mentally scratch Raider punya ... MYVI whether answer is yes or no for giving you doubts

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 14:49 | Report Abuse

I m trying to be positive but seeing such a huge losses of HY derivative, i see no hope loh!
But i have faithed in Petron loh!

Posted by probability > 4 minutes ago | Report Abuse

we actually want raider to lead the comrades...but unfortunately he is a broken soldier....extremely pessimistic and apprehensive lor! :(

Posted by probability > 2022-09-04 14:50 | Report Abuse

dont wait till Q3 results is out.. NTA is more than 12 by then!

Posted by stockraider > 2 seconds ago | Report Abuse

I m trying to be positive but seeing such a huge losses of HY derivative, i see no hope loh!
But i faith in Petron loh!

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 14:50 | Report Abuse

Takda baca news article many China companies also hedging on commodity lah. Not only HY leh. Where got hedging surewin one leh. If thats the case no need so hard run the refinery terus hedge enuf lah. Haiyoh.
Correct?

eagerinvestor

hy profit or loss is based on margin not derivatives. so yes it can make money when head win tail also win when got margin.

25 seconds ago

Posted by probability > 2022-09-04 14:51 | Report Abuse

prove on the effects of hedging when crack spread drop below hedging level for balance hedged contract is here

Posted by Sslee > Sep 3, 2022 6:17 PM | Report Abuse

If you look into HRC quarterly report.
On 31/12/19. NAPS is RM 6.7045.
Q1 end 31/03/20 EPS negative 41.37 cents but NAPS is now RM 7.4418

Posted by Sslee > Sep 3, 2022 6:32 PM | Report Abuse

You can check what is the mogas92 crack spread on 31/03/2020.
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 14:52 | Report Abuse

True loh!
Chinese Nickel billionaire nearly bankrupt betting on nickel future loh!

Lucky russian -ukraine war save him from the brink

Posted by UlarSawa > 17 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Takda baca news article many China companies also hedging on commodity lah. Not only HY leh. Where got hedging surewin one leh. If thats the case no need so hard run the refinery terus hedge enuf lah. Haiyoh.
Correct?

eagerinvestor

hy profit or loss is based on margin not derivatives. so yes it can make money when head win tail also win when got margin.

Posted by tehka > 2022-09-04 14:52 | Report Abuse

Let market tell in next few weeks who menang judi and who kalah judi loh! If kalah judi no need to be sour loh! Win or lose is part of the judi world. Good luck

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 14:53 | Report Abuse

Even NTA 12 you think market can accept the share price also worth rm12. Haiyoh. Correct?

probability

dont wait till Q3 results is out.. NTA is more than 12 by then!

Posted by stockraider > 2 seconds ago | Report Abuse

I m trying to be positive but seeing such a huge losses of HY derivative, i see no hope loh!
But i faith in Petron loh!

8 seconds ago

Posted by probability > 2022-09-04 14:53 | Report Abuse

@ular, please elaborate how hedging can lead to loss? example with hedging contract and consequence please...

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-09-04 14:54 | Report Abuse

In South China Morning Post :
Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand lead Southeast Asia stock boom in face of China economic concerns, global doom

Scrapping of pandemic-era restrictions have been a key boost to markets, with Malaysia more than doubling its annual target for tourists
Revival stands in stark contrast to China, where a lockdown in megacity Chengdu has cast even more gloom over its economy

Posted by eagerinvestor > 2022-09-04 14:54 | Report Abuse

no wor ular which one go bankrupt becoz of hedging?

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-04 14:54 | Report Abuse

Hedging is very expensive

1) there is the "Gap", the Gross Profit for Market Makers, ie the Bid & Offer Gap just like shares
2) sometimes got commission
3) there is a swap rate [some says it never goes to 20%, wink wink]

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 14:56 | Report Abuse

Already explain loh!
In case of Hengyuan kena margin call of Rm 1.5b due to derivative losses loh!

What happen if Hengyuan cannot pay up leh ??

Bankrupt loh!

All the hedge position will get liquidated with hedge losses mah!

Posted by probability > 5 seconds ago | Report Abuse

@ular, please elaborate how hedging can lead to loss? example with hedging contract and consequence please...

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 14:56 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 14:58 | Report Abuse

Hedging is betting mah. Mana ada surewin one in betting. If really the case why HY loss so much. Ular OKU mah. DUNNO the detail leh. Haiyoh. Correct?



probability

@ular, please elaborate how hedging can lead to loss? example with hedging contract and consequence please...

3 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 15:00 | Report Abuse

Go goggles lah. Should have very good examples for case study purposes. Haiyoh. Correct?

eagerinvestor

no wor ular which one go bankrupt becoz of hedging?

4 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 15:00 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 15:01 | Report Abuse

Hedging not betting like play big or small kah. Haiyoh. Correct?

probability

hedging is betting kah? ok i become OKU now..

29 seconds ago

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 15:01 | Report Abuse

I think Hengyuan share price will fall & its bad behavior pull down Petron to Rm 2.50 loh!

And Raider will buy more Petron at Rm 2.50 but raider will not buy Hengyuan whatever price, bcos of potential kon loh!

Posted by probability > 2022-09-04 15:02 | Report Abuse

@Ular, very smart leh...we are all predicting earnings & NTA, now he wants to have TP...

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-04 15:02 | Report Abuse

Raider
You are getting wiser in old age.
Your kukujiao went to brain already so brain is now supercharged

This is very likely
Thats why Wise Old Men sold down HRC on Friday
HRC was careless with their hedging
all Crude Oil purchases, you got the payment deducted from Bank account when LC is issued

I see HRC with cash flow issues.

However Raider, with the RM 5 Billion loan, this issue will be solved / already solved.

=> so there.

Posted by stockraider > 10 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Already explain loh!
In case of Hengyuan kena margin call of Rm 1.5b due to derivative losses loh!

What happen if Hengyuan cannot pay up leh ??

Bankrupt loh!

All the hedge position will get liquidated with hedge losses mah!

Posted by eagerinvestor > 2022-09-04 15:03 | Report Abuse

ular u bring up the topic without giving example now ask me to google like tat betul meh?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 15:05 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by tehka > 2022-09-04 15:07 | Report Abuse

Haiyoh ular, don't ask me, I am newbie only. I am align to god of gambler and yin yang sifu

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-04 15:08 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 15:12 | Report Abuse

This exactly like JAKS power plant story loh!
Posted by MoneyMakers > 42 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Only probability/sslee think HY hedging always perfect/profitable

Dunno whether they blind or what - never see HY soo many prev QR got losses

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-09-04 15:12 | Report Abuse

All the malicious attackers on HY must have bought HY at $17 in Jan 2018 and cut massive losses at $4-5. It’s been so painful for so long that it can not be forgotten and forgiven. But that’s not HY’s fault ,but their own fault. Why attack HY as a company?
So buying at $4-5 now is very safe , especially HY makes historical level of earnings for FY2022 that no other listed companies has ever achieved on PEx basis.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-04 15:15 | Report Abuse

Especially that raider....Ouch !!!

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 15:15 | Report Abuse

Look at the fact & figures mah!

All back up mah!
Nothing malicious mah!
Why General Raider says Sifu Sslee analysis on Hengyuan is dangerous flawed ?

1. Looking at the balance sheet HRC hedging losses as at 30-6-2022 amounted to rm Rm 1,329M of this sum of losses Rm 1189m or 90% are contributed by just 6 mths of operation result for the latest 30-6-2022 Financial result loh!

2. HRC derivative outstanding liabilities todate is Rm 1,781M whereas is derivative assets is Rm 261m, meaning net derivative negative exposure is Rm 1,520M.....meaning the counter party should be able received payment of Rm 1,520M from Hengyuan, it is just like your share margin losses loh!

3. Then why counterparty did not ask for margin call , since HRC has a huge negative equity of Rm 1520M leh ? Yes the counter party did ask for margin top up and hengyuan already paid, this can be seen from other receivable & prepayment payout increases by Rm 1,542M for the 6 mths mah!

In otherwords, Hengyuan 6 mths operating cashflow b4 working capital changes should be Rm 939m, after less Rm 1542M derivative top up amounting to negative cashflow of Rm 603M mah!

The route to potential financial collapse of Hengyuan, are written all there in the Derivative mah!

Do not get into this trap loh! Despite Hengyuan generated record positive operation cash flow of Rm 939m, its negative cashflow from derivative losses is rm 1,542m ( which already payout as other prepayment} thus HRC negative cashflow is Rm 603M.

Most importantly, Hengyuan borrowing & derivative liabilities had ballooned to Rm 3285M from just Rm 705m as at 31-12-2021 which a staggering increase of Rm 2580M, just within 6 mths and of this sum Rm 1542M is due to margin top up of derivative losses in the form of prepayment mah!

Lu tau boh ? The rot of Hengyuan has intensified alot loh!
Be very careful mah!

Posted by Johnzhang > 15 seconds ago | Report Abuse

All the malicious attackers on HY must have bought HY at $17 in Jan 2018 and cut massive losses at $4-5. It’s been so painful for so long that it can not be forgotten and forgiven. But that’s not HY’s fault ,but their own fault. Why attack HY as a company?
So buying at $4-5 now is very safe , especially HY makes historical level of earnings for FY2022 that no other listed companies has ever achieved on PEx basis.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 15:16 | Report Abuse

Your student tehka asked ular open judi table one leh. Ular dont mind to create the judi table lah. You TP earning and NTA rm12 and eps rm1.xx is not what you can get the share price mah. Haiyoh. Correct?


probability

@Ular, very smart leh...we are all predicting earnings & NTA, now he wants to have TP...

10 minutes ago

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-09-04 15:16 | Report Abuse

Aiyaa no use Q2 PE (+rm2) but Q3 PE (-rm2)

Hedging loss 1.07Bil cannot hide Q3

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 15:17 | Report Abuse

No point talked past tense when you judi at present lah. Haiyoh. Correct?


Johnzhang

All the malicious attackers on HY must have bought HY at $17 in Jan 2018 and cut massive losses at $4-5. It’s been so painful for so long that it can not be forgotten and forgiven. But that’s not HY’s fault ,but their own fault. Why attack HY as a company?
So buying at $4-5 now is very safe , especially HY makes historical level of earnings for FY2022 that no other listed companies has ever achieved on PEx basis.

3 minutes ago

Posted by tehka > 2022-09-04 15:18 | Report Abuse

Ular, I ask open judi table for entertainment nia. We never open our cards at judi table. Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 15:20 | Report Abuse

Wei you still newbie from 2018 kah. Why takda upgrade level one kah. Haiyoh. Correct?


tehka

Haiyoh ular, don't ask me, I am newbie only. I am align to god of gambler and yin yang sifu

9 minutes ago

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-04 15:20 |

Post removed.Why?