Sslee, no feedbacks from your whistleblowing queries...........so sad!!.......best and responsible shareholder and no hew you?? Took the troubles to do so much homework, gone to waste??
Dear Haniza Abdul Hamid IR Contact: HRCPD-Corporate-Affairs@hrc.com.my
I tried to follow yesterday's HRC 64th AGM (LIVE STREAM MEETING) from my Indonesia workplace but facing technical problems: “Firefox detected a potential security threat and did not continue to vimeo.com because this website requires a secure connection. What can you do about it? vimeo.com has a security policy called HTTP Strict Transport Security (HSTS), which means that Firefox can only connect to it securely. You can’t add an exception to visit this site”
I quote your previous email, “Please also be advised that the Board/Company will endeavour to answer the questions submitted through the TIIH Online Website at the AGM. If there is time constraints, the responses will be e-mailed to shareholders within fourteen (14) days after the AGM date.”
Will HRC kindly email to me a copy of BOD/Management answers to my AGM questions within (14) days after the AGM?
Hengyuan will make hundred millions/ quarter from second quarter 2023 to third quarter 2024 loh Provided crack margin keep below 12 lah
Sound weird lei. I not understand too I thought margin up up is good.
But sifu cowboys is expert in valero loh. He estimates Hengyuan will made 900millions in 2023. Right or not kebling tak tahu yah. Do your own research yah.
If take out 490m derivatives liabilities that occurred 2Q last year hengyuan dapat gross profit 440millions
this quarter is excellent lah! Gross profit this quarter actually is 440 millions lah Haiyoh
Moving forwards Hengyuan will enjoy derivatives hedging gains
Due to hedging strategies Hengyuan ni different to others refinery stock loh This year others refinery hard to make profits loh 2023-2024 sep is hengyuan harvest time They hedge from 9.5-36 loh Refining margin very thin nowadays lah Hedging contracts turn hundred millions soon lah
For April -May 2023 Global refining margins is about usd 4 by average loh Others refinery going to loss in 2Q loh
But since hengyuan hedge at 24-36 in 2Q last year Hengyuan will gains 1100 millions for the hedging done in 2Q. And 270millions for others quarter Estimate only yah
Hengyuan is difference to others refinery lah Because hengyuan is the only one crazy in hedging activity lah That’s is why hengyuan loss so much last year when others is making’s money lah
Once was trading around RM 7.xx. Already 50% became ash! Still have hope in this Chinese company? Most of the Chinese companies registered are penny stocks now. Real Hustlers!
Profit after tax should be 200-300 millions loh Haiyah about 490m liability is from last year mah This quarter hedging is gain lah , don’t focus eps only lah read report please lah
HRC financial situation been deteriorating past few quarters. Its so bad even revenue dropped RM500 million. If US companies, entire BOD and CEO already sacked long ago,
another 4 quarters of financial deterioration and it will become irreversible.
If in paper profits, must sell If in paper loss, depending on your percentage of loss, HRC still has some hope. Urgent cut loss scenario not reached yet. Still can do high risk hold depending on your risk appetite which only you know yourself.
Hengyuan hedge huge refining margin in 2021 4Q loh Hedging margin around 11-12 , for every months until September 2024 loh (Not 100% of the sales volume yah ) they hedge for above 12 in 2022 1Q , and 24-36 in 2Q. Valero and marathon no this action loh. Only crazy hengyuan doing this gambling thing.
Nowadays, us refinery suffering for low refining margin loh They need refining margin 4-5 to break even lah But refining margin is very very low now
The only one benefit is Hengyuan loh They had lock in their refining margin at least 12 until Sep 2024
That’s why my cowboy sifu ask me to sell valero but follow hengyuan lah Wait the right time to enter…. 2.5 ? Last year lose so many money in this counter…
You have totally no idea what is derivative high interest rate regime now => derivatives are high interest costs products. interests are charged as swap rates and shown as cost of derivatives.
=> HRC is at borderline bankruptcy due to buying too much derivatives. except that if recession, then interest rates will dive down and HRC will be rescued
=> If you buy HRC you better pray for recession, millions unemployed, hungry, suicide and crying everyday. and hope people like Phillip jump from Merdeka 118 [refer sslee]
DTL become lower ( -563m ), equity cash flow hedge seem like almost finish reclass to pnl. FV loss only declare 252m really surprise me. Is it means this quarter start hedge gain?
ordinary investors have zero idea thats why wise investors avoid HRC => HRC anytime can hedge or dun hedge, nobody knows why
to me HRC is hedging themselves to bankruptcy in this high interest rate regime. Recession better come very soon or HRC stop all hedging.
funny thing is during recession interest rate comes down but do you thing during recession HRC will do well?
Conclusion:- Recession HRC die, No Recession HRC also die from high interests Is that an investable company?
Posted by Cass > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse
DTL become lower ( -563m ), equity cash flow hedge seem like almost finish reclass to pnl. FV loss only declare 252m really surprise me. Is it means this quarter start hedge gain?
My analysis is that HRC ramped up hedging to billions HRC caught unaware and unprepared when FOMC rapidly ratcheted up US interest rates. To avoid bankruptcy HRC took 5 Billion loan as standby, [a good move] no matter how you spin it, it comes out as very bad.
All oil derivatives in USD and interest charged as swap rates is calculated as US interest rates
Each barrel of crude oil is refine breakdown into 3 major component product, with largest component is diesel, second is RON gasoline and lastly refine jet fuel
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
BobAxelrod
8,255 posts
Posted by BobAxelrod > 2023-05-25 11:57 | Report Abuse
Sslee, no feedbacks from your whistleblowing queries...........so sad!!.......best and responsible shareholder and no hew you?? Took the troubles to do so much homework, gone to waste??