Grab dnex at 0.38 and Hengyuan 3.14 Panic sell has no difference with transfer money to others account lah
Told you , dnex just deferred tax, don’t panic sell Hengyuan hedging is making hundred millions, don’t panic sell Unless you want help us collect more at 2.98 and 2.50 lah haha
The cost to charter a Long Range (LR) vessel on the Middle East to Singapore route has dropped to slightly below $25 a tonne from around $34 a tonne in the last two months, they added. That is half the cost for the same ship to travel to Europe, they said.
Crude premium is going down loh Hengyuan no afraid margin down lah Hedging at 12 promise minimum gross profit of 270m lah With condition no high crude premium lah Since logistic cost had fallen lah 2Q anticipates minimum EPS 0.66 loh But my cowboy sifu modelling predict that eps will be 1.20—-2.15 lah Lets see betul keh salah
My sifu modeling assumptions is based on updated data yah so might changes yah 2Q left June lah , should be accurate lah Read the quarter report carefully You will find out Hengyuan is enjoying hedging gains lah Gains, a lot of gains. Juicy and yummy lah
If Miss dnex don’t miss ekovest yah Kebling told u don’t panic sell dnex Dnex results is not bad Ekovest result is fantastic Hengyuan result is top My cowboy sifu team with certified accountant lah Kebling know blowing only lah
Please check 2020 4Q result yah Refined margin is negative USD 1 But PAT is 171 millions
2020 oil price drop like hell lah But Hengyuan making profits in 2020 oh…
In 2020 derivatives hedging only 2.05—-23.05 Good enough to provide few hundred million gains in derivatives loh 2023 we have 12—-36.1 loh Guess how much gains can get lei All data available in Hengyuan report yah Data no lies
Is already June, If the hedging margin is really in the range of 12-36. Q2 should have very good return in hedging. But there is no data showing the margin is between 8.5-36 in the QR. where you guys get that info?
Question 19: Are the refining margin swap contracts how many % are based on Singapore Mogas 92 Unleaded (Platts) Vs Brent and on Singapore Gasoil (Platts) Vs Brent?
Question 20: Notional value: USD 180,413,000. Gross margin per barrel (USD) range 9.50 to 36.10: What is the total volume (barrel) and volume weighted average gross margin per barrel?
Question 21: Of the total volume, how many (barrel) and volume weighted average gross margin per barrel refining margin swap contracts mature in quarter 1, quarter 2, quarter 3 and quarter 4 2023?
Response from HRC:
Reference to questions 19, 20 & 21: We are unable to disclose this information due to commercial sensitivity in order to protect our market competitiveness.
Page: 134 (2022 AR) Refining margin swap contracts (continued) The effects of the refining margin swap contracts on the Company’s financial position and performance are as follows: 2022: 2021 Carrying amount liability, net (RM’000): (830,596): (179,886) Notional value (USD’000): 180,413: 265,421 Maturity date January 2023 to September 2024: January 2022 to September 2024 Hedge ratio (%): 100: 100 Change in fair value of designated hedging instruments (RM’000): (829,075): (97,395) Change in value of hedged item used to determine hedge effectiveness (RM’000): 829,075: 97,395 Gross margin per barrel (USD): 9.50 to 36.10: 8.00 to 12.30
haiyoh we all know refinery companies need crack margin 4 to break even loh Imagine lah if you are the hedging manager lah When you see refining margin goes up to 12 What is your action lei? Push the buy button lah of course Lock in gross profit of 8*4.2*10millions = 320 millions loh Who knows russian will attack Ukraine lei at that time?
So, the manager hedge maybe 1 ~2 million barrels every months until 2024 loh. It is possible to hedge 5 millions barrels for 33 months? Impossible lah.
In 2022, refining margin surge to the moon lah The manager continues hedge loh.
Checking CME data, hedging price after July 2022, is below 9 lah So, the manager no more hedge after July loh.
That’s why we see the margin is 9.5~36.1 loh
One more things yah The margin in 2022 is 8~12.30 lazy explain lah Go check the data, you will find in which quarter they were hedging lah Is FIFO one lah. Most of margin below 12 had been closed position in 2022lah. Forwards, Hengyuan enjoy very high very high crack spread margin lah.
Noticed this year, refining margin is above normal loh
Diesel maybe a bit lower but they already hedge it high mah
shipping cost & insurance premiums pun dah turun lah
Btw we already full load in petron m loh. Hengyuan no rush, buy slowly while others tak Percaya loh
WTI is 68 means China refiners is buying unlimited Russian Urals, refine to diesel and dump into international markets. With cheap Urals, 3 Gorges, low China salaries, HRC is having a headache
to rescue HRC from PN17 will need rapid defeat of Russia
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
i3lurker
13,606 posts
Posted by i3lurker > 2023-05-30 09:51 |
Post removed.Why?