Posted by kebling98 > 2023-05-30 00:18 | Report Abuse

Profit after tax should be 200-300 millions loh
Haiyah about 490m liability is from last year mah
This quarter hedging is gain lah , don’t focus eps only lah
read report please lah

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-05-30 00:50 | Report Abuse

Adui old man sing old song...

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2023-05-30 06:04 | Report Abuse

Wish him one road follow the wind, goodbye.

Posted by kebling98 > 2023-05-30 07:21 | Report Abuse

nta melonjat dari 4..579 to 5.56
Year end back to 7 lah since derivatives gains so huge



Please panic sell yah
I want buy at 2.5 yah

Posted by dompeilee > 2023-05-30 07:25 | Report Abuse

Fair value of financial instruments that were outstanding as at the reporting date are detailed
below:
Contract/
Notional amount Assets (Liabilities)
USD’000 RM’000 RM’000
Financial assets/(liabilities) – Level 2
31.03.2023
Forward foreign currency contracts 195,000 2,964 (8,689)
Forward priced commodity contracts 75,434 17,143 -
Refining margin swap contracts 185,301 55,326 (320,202)
31.12.2022
Forward foreign currency contracts 181,500 - (12,659)
Commodity swap contracts 119,734 - (40,158)
Refining margin swap contracts 235,068 116,530 (839,801)

Posted by i3lurker > 2023-05-30 07:41 | Report Abuse

HRC financial situation been deteriorating past few quarters.
Its so bad even revenue dropped RM500 million.
If US companies, entire BOD and CEO already sacked long ago,

another 4 quarters of financial deterioration and it will become irreversible.

If in paper profits, must sell
If in paper loss, depending on your percentage of loss, HRC still has some hope.
Urgent cut loss scenario not reached yet.
Still can do high risk hold depending on your risk appetite which only you know yourself.

Posted by i3lurker > 2023-05-30 08:15 | Report Abuse

Urgent cut loss scenario not reached yet.

Posted by kebling98 > 2023-05-30 08:21 | Report Abuse

Hengyuan hedge huge refining margin in 2021 4Q loh
Hedging margin around 11-12 , for every months until September 2024 loh
(Not 100% of the sales volume yah ) they hedge for above 12 in 2022 1Q , and 24-36 in 2Q. Valero and marathon no this action loh. Only crazy hengyuan doing this gambling thing.

Nowadays, us refinery suffering for low refining margin loh
They need refining margin 4-5 to break even lah
But refining margin is very very low now

The only one benefit is Hengyuan loh
They had lock in their refining margin at least 12 until Sep 2024

That’s why my cowboy sifu ask me to sell valero but follow hengyuan lah
Wait the right time to enter…. 2.5 ?
Last year lose so many money in this counter…

Posted by i3lurker > 2023-05-30 08:30 | Report Abuse

You have totally no idea what is derivative
high interest rate regime now
=> derivatives are high interest costs products.
interests are charged as swap rates and shown as cost of derivatives.

=> HRC is at borderline bankruptcy due to buying too much derivatives.
except that if recession, then interest rates will dive down and HRC will be rescued

=> If you buy HRC you better pray for recession, millions unemployed, hungry, suicide and crying everyday.
and hope people like Phillip jump from Merdeka 118 [refer sslee]

Posted by Cass > 2023-05-30 08:33 | Report Abuse

DTL become lower ( -563m ), equity cash flow hedge seem like almost finish reclass to pnl. FV loss only declare 252m really surprise me. Is it means this quarter start hedge gain?

Posted by i3lurker > 2023-05-30 08:40 | Report Abuse

ordinary investors have zero idea
thats why wise investors avoid HRC
=> HRC anytime can hedge or dun hedge, nobody knows why

to me HRC is hedging themselves to bankruptcy in this high interest rate regime.
Recession better come very soon or HRC stop all hedging.

funny thing is during recession interest rate comes down
but do you thing during recession HRC will do well?

Conclusion:-
Recession HRC die,
No Recession HRC also die from high interests
Is that an investable company?


Posted by Cass > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

DTL become lower ( -563m ), equity cash flow hedge seem like almost finish reclass to pnl. FV loss only declare 252m really surprise me. Is it means this quarter start hedge gain?

Posted by i3lurker > 2023-05-30 08:52 | Report Abuse

My analysis is that HRC ramped up hedging to billions
HRC caught unaware and unprepared when FOMC rapidly ratcheted up US interest rates.
To avoid bankruptcy HRC took 5 Billion loan as standby, [a good move]
no matter how you spin it, it comes out as very bad.

All oil derivatives in USD
and interest charged as swap rates is calculated as US interest rates

Posted by Sslee > 2023-05-30 09:14 | Report Abuse

Each barrel of crude oil is refine breakdown into 3 major component product, with largest component is diesel, second is RON gasoline and lastly refine jet fuel

1. Gasoil/diesel crack spread chart (historical highest level range)
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1%21/

2. Gasoline/petrol RON 92 crack spread spread chart (normalize level range)
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/

3. Kerosene/ jet fuel crack spread (at historical highest range level)
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD2!/

Posted by Sslee > 2023-05-30 09:15 | Report Abuse

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-AV02%21/

https://www.investing.com/commodities/nymex-singapore-gasoil-platts-c1-futures-historical-data

Posted by Sslee > 2023-05-30 09:17 | Report Abuse

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-05-30 09:19 | Report Abuse

The management treat this business like banker player table. 🎲

Posted by speakup > 2023-05-30 09:25 | Report Abuse

So bad results only down 9¢?

Posted by i3lurker > 2023-05-30 09:51 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UnicornP > 2023-05-30 09:52 | Report Abuse

Bought at 3.14 😃

Posted by kebling98 > 2023-05-30 10:15 | Report Abuse

Grab dnex at 0.38 and Hengyuan 3.14
Panic sell has no difference with transfer money to others account lah

Told you , dnex just deferred tax, don’t panic sell
Hengyuan hedging is making hundred millions, don’t panic sell
Unless you want help us collect more at 2.98 and 2.50 lah haha

Posted by FreshMango > 2023-05-30 10:18 | Report Abuse

syndicate always up to no good on Bursa😾

Posted by IshraaqNor > 2023-05-30 12:16 | Report Abuse

boleh dikatakan terdapat peningkatan dlm Q1nya, kerugian bersih telah dikurangkan. Tapi sangka HY blh menjana keuntungan...

Posted by James_Bond > 2023-05-31 11:49 | Report Abuse

Time to short HengYuan…

Posted by IshraaqNor > 2023-05-31 19:47 | Report Abuse

Susah...fikir nak masuk lagi jika ia jatuh ke Rm3

Posted by kebling98 > 2023-05-31 23:06 | Report Abuse

The cost to charter a Long Range (LR) vessel on the Middle East to Singapore route has dropped to slightly below $25 a tonne from around $34 a tonne in the last two months, they added. That is half the cost for the same ship to travel to Europe, they said.

Posted by kebling98 > 2023-05-31 23:16 | Report Abuse

Crude premium is going down loh
Hengyuan no afraid margin down lah
Hedging at 12 promise minimum gross profit of 270m lah
With condition no high crude premium lah
Since logistic cost had fallen lah
2Q anticipates minimum EPS 0.66 loh
But my cowboy sifu modelling predict that
eps will be 1.20—-2.15 lah
Lets see betul keh salah

Posted by kebling98 > 2023-05-31 23:24 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow ekovest cheap sales lah
Deferred tax again like dnex
If they panic sell
Repeat yesterday story like dnex
1 hours can make 10% profits loh

Posted by kebling98 > 2023-05-31 23:28 | Report Abuse

My sifu modeling assumptions is based on updated data yah so might changes yah
2Q left June lah , should be accurate lah
Read the quarter report carefully
You will find out
Hengyuan is enjoying hedging gains lah
Gains, a lot of gains. Juicy and yummy lah

Posted by kebling98 > 2023-06-01 10:11 | Report Abuse

If Miss dnex don’t miss ekovest yah
Kebling told u don’t panic sell dnex
Dnex results is not bad
Ekovest result is fantastic
Hengyuan result is top
My cowboy sifu team with certified accountant lah
Kebling know blowing only lah

House passes us debt ceiling bill
Senate next

Posted by kebling98 > 2023-06-01 12:36 | Report Abuse

Please check 2020 4Q result yah
Refined margin is negative USD 1
But PAT is 171 millions

2020 oil price drop like hell lah
But Hengyuan making profits in 2020 oh…

In 2020 derivatives hedging only 2.05—-23.05
Good enough to provide few hundred million gains in derivatives loh
2023 we have 12—-36.1 loh
Guess how much gains can get lei
All data available in Hengyuan report yah
Data no lies

Posted by IshraaqNor > 2023-06-01 16:53 | Report Abuse

RON 97 naik harga

https://ringgitplus.com/en/blog/petrol-credit-card/petrol-price-malaysia-live-updates-ron95-ron97-diesel.html

Posted by speakup > 2023-06-01 17:40 | Report Abuse

mesti baca:
https://www.therakyatpost.com/news/malaysia/2023/06/01/should-the-rich-pay-more-tax-and-be-denied-government-subsidies/

Posted by speakup > 2023-06-02 15:38 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2023/06/02/family-mansion-of-jho-low-is-still-in-tip-top-condition

Posted by IshraaqNor > 2023-06-02 16:52 | Report Abuse

Boleh kata miskin jd lebih miskin, kaya jadi lebih kaya pd zaman skrg

Posted by BursaTornado > 2023-06-02 20:35 | Report Abuse

Hope HY management can read this, HY management buat malu saja. Tahu eja malu? Look at Petronm.

Posted by speakup > 2023-06-03 09:53 | Report Abuse

https://www.therakyatpost.com/news/malaysia/2023/06/02/woman-criticized-for-using-free-water-at-petrol-station-to-wash-her-toyota-vios/

Posted by IshraaqNor > 2023-06-06 15:51 | Report Abuse

Dah naik. Tengok minggu ni HY mampu memecah Rm3.30 tak...

Posted by abc333 > 2023-06-06 17:03 | Report Abuse

Petron 5 , HY 3.24

Posted by abc333 > 2023-06-06 19:30 | Report Abuse

https://shipandbunker.com/prices/apac/sea/sg-sin-singapore#VLSFO

Posted by IshraaqNor > 2023-06-07 15:54 | Report Abuse

Petronm punya Q1 ada keuntungan , sebaliknya HY tak ada. Itu sebablah harga saham petronm lebih tinggi dprd HY

Posted by kebling98 > 2023-06-07 18:13 | Report Abuse

Hengyuan Ada keuntungan lah
loss is due to 2022 derivatives liabilities of 400-500 millions mah
Hengyuan record higher PAT than Petronm lah

Posted by IshraaqNor > 2023-06-08 12:19 | Report Abuse

betul, selepas pelarasan ia jadi keuntungan...

Posted by kebling98 > 2023-06-08 23:35 | Report Abuse

My cowboy sifu group continue buy slowly, 2Q pasti cantik

Posted by DickyMe > 2023-06-08 23:45 | Report Abuse

"Posted by DickyMe 2023-02-22 17:44 | Report Abuse

Paper loss will become real loss.
RM 1.50 coming soon!"
==============================

Another 50% drop could reach my target price.

Posted by abc333 > 2023-06-09 08:30 | Report Abuse

Is already June, If the hedging margin is really in the range of 12-36. Q2 should have very good return in hedging. But there is no data showing the margin is between 8.5-36 in the QR. where you guys get that info?

Posted by Sslee > 2023-06-09 08:42 | Report Abuse

Question 19: Are the refining margin swap contracts how many % are based on Singapore Mogas 92 Unleaded (Platts) Vs Brent and on Singapore Gasoil (Platts) Vs Brent?

Question 20: Notional value: USD 180,413,000. Gross margin per barrel (USD) range 9.50 to 36.10: What is the total volume (barrel) and volume weighted average gross margin per barrel?

Question 21: Of the total volume, how many (barrel) and volume weighted average gross margin per barrel refining margin swap contracts mature in quarter 1, quarter 2, quarter 3 and quarter 4 2023?

Response from HRC:

Reference to questions 19, 20 & 21: We are unable to disclose this information due to commercial sensitivity in order to protect our market competitiveness.

Posted by Sslee > 2023-06-09 08:44 | Report Abuse

Page: 134 (2022 AR)
Refining margin swap contracts (continued)
The effects of the refining margin swap contracts on the Company’s financial position and performance are as follows:
2022: 2021
Carrying amount liability, net (RM’000): (830,596): (179,886)
Notional value (USD’000): 180,413: 265,421
Maturity date January 2023 to September 2024: January 2022 to September 2024
Hedge ratio (%): 100: 100
Change in fair value of designated hedging instruments (RM’000): (829,075): (97,395)
Change in value of hedged item used to determine hedge effectiveness (RM’000): 829,075: 97,395
Gross margin per barrel (USD): 9.50 to 36.10: 8.00 to 12.30

Posted by Sslee > 2023-06-09 08:50 | Report Abuse

A 19 million barrel at gross margin at 9.50 with 1 million barrel at gross margin 36.10. The weighted average is 10.83.

The range 9.50 to 36.10 is meaningless without weighted average.

Posted by abc333 > 2023-06-09 09:02 | Report Abuse

Thanks SSlee.
Meaning
Maturity date January 2022 to September 2024 was hedge in 2021
Gross margin per barrel (USD): 8.00 to 12.30

January 2023 to September 2024:
Gross margin per barrel (USD): 9.50 to 36.10
(hedge in 2022 + some hedge in 2021)

no wonder HY lose so much in hedging 2022 Q2.

Posted by IshraaqNor > 2023-06-09 16:00 | Report Abuse

Bagus macam ni. Tapi kenapa HY beli minyak pd harga yg tinggi tahun 2021?