Some people worry no cheap sale and some people think now is cheap already .... and finally, JAKS doesn't disappoint them by givig cheap offer to them again ....
Value investors take this opportunity to load more .... they obsrve a supporting level around 75sen, they don't want to miss the opportunity!
Some ppl fully loaded and don't have extra cash to buy more as they wish .... some ppl have extra cash but after buying in cheap, the stock offers even cheaper and they don't have enough extra cash again ......
Don't they worry after they bought in, it become cheaper? or they only worry no cheap sale coming?
DK, thank you for your response on the issue of cashflow from the power plant by inferring from AES's 51% stake in its Mong Duong II power plant. As usual, my reponses in BOLD.
1. Chuckie1, you should visit the official website of AES corporation and check up the dividend information before assuming the information shared here is from private conversation and non public info.
I HAVE READ YOUR ARTICLE ON THE POTENTIAL CASHFLOW OF AES'S POWER PLANT. YES, I AGREE WITH YOU THAT THERE THE SIMILARITIES OF JPP AND AES'S POWER PLANT ARE ALMOST MIRROR-LIKE, AND IT IS NOT TOO FAR FETCHED TO INFER THE POTENTIAL CASHFLOW FROM JPP'S POWER PLANT FROM THAT OF AES. HOWEVER, ONE CANNOT BE ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN THAT THE DEBT REPAYMENT SCHEDULES OF THE 2 POWER PLANTS ARE THE SAME. IT CAN BE ARGUED THAT AES'BARGAINING POWER, BEING A FORTUNE 500 COMPANY, WITH THE FINANCIERS OF THE POWER PLANT PROJECT WILL BE STRONGER THAN THAT OF JPP'S (IN MY OPININ WILL JUST TAKE WHATEVER TERMS AND CONDITIONS BEING PRESENTED BY THE FINANCIERS) AS AES'S FINANCIALS ARE STRONGER AND MAY HAVE OTHER ALTERNATIVE FINANCING AVENUES. WHO KNOWS ? IT MAY BE THAT JAK'S CEO MAY HAD MANAGED TO SWEET TALKED INTO SECURING A SWEETHEART DEAL. WHO KNOWS? MY RESPONSE IS.. WHY MAKE SUCH GUESSES. WHY DONT WE JUST POSE THIS CRUCIAL QUESTION TO THE MANAGEMENT OF JAKS IN THE UPCOMING EGM. WITH CASHFLOW CLARITY FROM THE POWER PLANT, ONE WOULD BE ABLE TO ASSESS WITH GREATER ACCURACY THE SOLVENCY OF THE JAKS (WHICH NOT IN ABSOLUTE EXAGGERATION BORDERING ON INSOLVENCY ESPECIALLY IF IT WERE TO LOSE THE LEGAL CASE WITH STAR MEDIA).
The success of the Rights issue is absolutely crucial for the going concern position of JAKS (meaning.. if the Rights issue does not go through, JAKS could potentially face insolvency) which obviously have a major impact on the share price. As of now, the major shareholders of JAKS ie. the CEO and ED, are committed to take up RM50 mil of the Rights Issue. What is ABSOLUTELY CRUCIAL to watch out for is for the rights issue is FULLY UNDERWRITTEN under the minimum amount to be raised scenario. There are certains terms and conditions that need to be fulfilled in order for the underwriter to agree to do so. and it was mentioned that these terms and conditions will be laid out the Abridge Prospectus. So, guys,at this stage, the issue whether JAKS shares are cheap or expensive shld take the backseat. The crucial issue is whether JAKS can overcome the financial crunch that it facing in the immediate months. But having said this, at RM0.76 per share, in my humble opinion, it is not reflecting the insolvency risks/dangers that the company is facing.! (why not ? I guess not many people believe or is aware of the insolvency risks..).
Chuckie1, you are a very careful guy but you are too pessimistic. You should look for answers for your "maybe". If you don't think Jaks is worth your time, don't bother making so many guesses. I think you should wait for Jaks to see earnings from JHDP first before making your decision.
Nice analysis Chuckie1....If Jaks is credit-worthy, it won't do so much equity raising la....The mall is valued at RM1k psf plus in the book.....Doubt they can even sell half of that....So, I think you're right...It's a freaking Zombie
DK, if I may response to your commment again, respectfully..again my response in BOLD.
Chuckie1, you are a very careful guy but you are too pessimistic. You should look for answers for your "maybe".
GIVEN THE WEAK MANAGEMENT AND BOARD OF JAKS, IT IS BEST THAT ONE WERE TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION THAN, CLEARLY, TAKE UNNECESSARY RISKS. I HAVE READ THROUGH ALMOST ALL THE POSITIVE REPORTS ON JAKS AND WHILE THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF THOSE REPORTS WHICH IN MY OPINON MAY HAVE BEEN STRECHED A BIT, I DO NOT DISPUTE AT ALL THE POTENTIAL CASHFLOW (ALBEIT AT LATER YEARS VIS-A-VIS THE OPTIMISTS) AND VALUE OF THE POWER ASSETS. IT IS NOT INCORRECT THAT SOME OF THE POSITIVE REPORTS WERE BASED ON ASSUMPTIONS, OR IN YOUR WORDS, BASED ON "MAYBE' AND HERE IS WHERE I DIFFER WITH THE OPTIMISTS. WHY GUESS, WHY CONJECTURE. CLEARLY, AND I AM SURE YOU WOULD ALSO AGREE AND WILL DO, PRESENT THE UNCERTAINTIES OVER KEY ISSUES TO THE BOARD AND MANAGEMENT OF THE COMPANY IN THE UPCOMING EGM FOR ALL THE STAKEHOLDERS TO GAIN INSIGHTS AND CLARITY.
If you don't think Jaks is worth your time, don't bother making so many guesses.
I USED TO BE A SHAREHOLDER OF JAKS BUT HAD SINCE SOLD OUT. I AM STILL A HOLDER OF THE WARRANTS. YOU HAD CORRECTLY POINTED IN ONE OF YOUR EARLIER COMMENT, YES, I HAVE JUST STARTED LOOKING INTO THE DETAILS OF JAKS, JUST LAST WEEK. THERE ARE CLEARLY SOME VERY POSITIVE POINTS IN JAKS BUT I HAVE ALSO CAME TO A CONCLUSION THAT THE MARKET (ALSO KNOWN AS INVESTORS/SHAREHOLDERS) HAVE NOT FULLY AWARE OF SOME OF THE RISKS, SPECIFICALLY THE FINANCIALS RISKS, AND I THINK IT IS AN INJUSTICE OF THE MANAGEMENT AND BOARD FOR NOT CLAFYING THE ISSUES ASAP. AS AN PRIVATE INDIVIDUAL, MY CONSCIOUS HAVE GUIDED ME TO SHARE SOME OF THE CONCERNS HERE IN THIS FORUM. OF COURSE, EVERYONE HAS CAN MAKE UP THEIR OWN DECISIONS AND THEY ARE WELCOME TO REJECT MY VIEWS AND POINTS, BUT ALMOST (DARE I SAY ALL !?) ALL OF MY POINTS ARE BASED ON FUNDAMENTALS AND REASONABLE ASSUMPTIONS, AND I AM MORE THAN HAPPY, TIME AND EFFORTS GRANDED, TO DISCUSS THE VALIDITY OF MY POINTS. I HOPE THAT I AM ABLE TO ATTEND THE UPCOMING EGM AND POSED TO THE BOARD MY CONCERNS AND THAT THE BOARD WILL RESPONSE WITH CLARITY AND CERTAINTY FOR THE SAKE OF ALL THE STAKEHOLDERS.
I think you should wait for Jaks to see earnings from JHDP first before making your decision.
NOT NCESSARY. IF JAKS SHARE PRICE WERE TO FALL BELOW RM0.50 (JUST A NUMBER), MY RISK-REWARD JUDGEMENT WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD ME TO BUY THE SHARES AS IT WILL BE MY JUDGEMENT THAT ALL THE NEGATIVES HAVE BEEN FULLY FACTORED INTO THE SHARE PRICE. ONE MUST BE ABLE TO DISTINGUISH THE FUNDAMENTAL VALUE OF THE COMPANY VIS-A-VIS THE SHARES.
I hope in future everybody should refrain from typing in Bold as it makes reading very difficult. And yes Chucki I think with all the cashflow problems in theory it should close shop, sell the 30% power plant to the China partner for $600 millions cheep and sell all the properties at 60% market value to the vultures. This I think is the best solution. Settles all loans and return the balance to shareholders. This will actually be worth more than 70sens by my sinkar financial estimate.
Icwin, my sense is that the CEO of Jaks is pretty strong in securing deals, but based on its corporate developments history, it is clear to me that the corporate finance and operation execution of JAKS are terrible, not to mention the extremely weak investor relations. The Board has no qualm in issuing new shares at deep discount, i.e. the upcoming Rights issue at 50% discount, topping it off with warrants ! How much more diluition can the poor shareholders ask for.My sense reading from the comments here is that not many shareholdres are objecting to the deep issue price. As for your scenario of crystallising the underlying value of the assets especialy the power assets shares, I dont think the management under the concept and therefore is unlikely to adopt such discipline financial approach. So, as minority shareholders, please band together and present your views on how the management and Board shld manage the company..
Chucki yes the management is not strong.There is actually no positive cashflow beside PP construction which is delayed by covid. Given the circumstances the right issue is definately needed to ensure the cpy can survive this few mths before PP can contribute. Jaks is not a developer but took an opportunistic bet during the property booms then. Its just like now everybody is trying to produce mask ,gloves vaccines labels . Many will fail. Even PP is not Jaks expertise but Jaks got lucky after the Chinese cpy is willing to take up the whole resposibility of developing the PP. It was a time when China was ramping up new laws to limit Coal PP. A lot of coal PP project was shelves so it was at that time Jaks got a sweet deal. Right issues at low price n warrants is a typical manipulative moves that signal the fact that Goring time is not far. Go looks at all those counters that does this stunts...
"Chuckie1--> In the Rights Issue circular, it was highlighted that under the Maximum Scenario of funds raising, there will be a total of 59.0 mil of new shares to be issued under the LTIP programme to the management of the company !! Please, can someone please clarify for me, are these shares, please tell me that I am wrong, are issued WITHOUT any considerations (ie WITHOUT ANY PAYMENTS) to the CEO and Executive Directors and managemnets !! If in the event that I am wrong, and these shares are indeed going to be issued FREE, there are absolutely NOTHING the shareholders can do ?"
Not all new shares under LTIP can be given free. Jaks has already given out most of the free LTIP portion. Current outstanding LTIP has exercise price of 1.40. You owe yourself a duty to find out more.
There is no need to frighten yourself and others unnecessarily. Always do more studies before making "scary comments" or unless you have other intentions ??
JAKS IRR 11% pa is in Dong.... U borrow USD n u receive Dong during the concession loh...anything can happen mah...!!
1. U may have teething problem. 2. There maybe dispute with the Govt. 3. There maybe dispute with JV partner. 4. Jaks maybe unable to raise the finance. 5. There maybe over spending on capex. 6. The operating cost may be wrong calculated. 7. The loan interest may go up. 8. The dong value may come down
Too many variable to say sure guarantee profit loh...!!
Many are already suffering huge losses here. So the least you can do is to stop adding salt to injury. If you can only see the negatives but none of the positives you are telling people that you can't even respect yourself. So it will do you good to just shut up.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
chonghai
482 posts
Posted by chonghai > 2020-08-10 09:59 | Report Abuse
No cheap sales today. No Kang Tao to collect cheap.