CGS-CIMB securities head , Ivy Ng, said yesterday " For 2021, we are looking at an average of $3,700 per tonne...." I must alert Miss Ivy Ng that average for Jan - Sep 2021 is already $4,150. To get your full year average for 2021 ($3,700), CPO price for Oct-dec 2021 ought to be $2,350! How likely? Probably she is smarter than people in the industry to see CPO plunging tommorow! What a shame!
CPO will stay at least above RM4200 per tonne due to labour shortage and lower production. Also, at the middle of December, the monsoon will come, the production will start to decrease, the CPO price will be even higher.
In US the situation is even worse, labor shortage in almost all sectors, people are used to work at home, employers has to increase the salary to attract people to work. Almost all the goods price are up. Currency are devalued due to over printing money.
Wait for Nasdaq major correction to chase out hot money circulating in the Technology sector. If it doesn't happen, CPO 6k also don't help much. Bursa pool is really small nowadays.
Mabel today very busy with Mabel Energy Battleships and Super tankers as all of them cruising at full speed. So many missiles to fires....I think one of the missiles hit Mickey Mouse Plantation - MHC - Mickey Horrible Counter ...HiHiHi....
♦️ *What should investors do?* Ride the wave. This is practically one of the first times this year that share prices are moving in tandem with CPO prices. For investors who have been waiting for this sector to do something all year, now is the time to ride the wave and wait for a good opportunity to lock in some profits. ♦️ *Can this rally last?* There was no fundamental change that happened over the last few days to trigger this sudden spike. Plantation monthly stats due to come out next week are likely to show a reduction in stocks on the back of improved exports, however the reduction is expected to be minimal, therefore insignificant. We believe this jump above MYR5,000 may be short lived as we continue to expect next year's fundamentals of supply to improve, with a moderation of CPO prices in 2022. Main risk to this thesis is weather abnormalities. ♦️ *If I want to partake in the rally, what should I BUY?* We would recommend liquid big cap names like Sime and IOI. Sensitivity to CPO price movement may not be as significant as the smaller cap names, but liquidity is there so that investors are able to be nimble. ♦️ *Any change to our UW sector call?* Not at this moment. Our call is a 12 month call, and we still believe in the wake of improving fundamentals and moderating prices in 2022, earnings will be weaker YoY, while ESG concerns will still have a part to play in valuations of the sector as a whole. We continue to like the smaller cap names like SOP and Ta Ann in Malaysia, integrated players like First Resources and Wilmar in Singapore and London Sumatra In Indonesia.
Just to share some historical data of past 10 years . Plantantion share price on day closing high (H) in year 2012 were as below (adjusted for RI or BI if any)
Thplant. $2.45 Sop. $6.62 MHC. $1.46 Cepat. $1.18 Swkplt. $3.24 Taann. $4.50 Hsplant. $3.18 Bplant. $1.34 Note :Bplant H was in 2018. Listed in 2014.
CPO high was about $3,600 pmt in Mar 2012 CPO now reached almost $5,100 yesterday. Cost of production may have increased by $200 pmt since 2012. After factoring in the higher production cost , today 's CPO price is still about 35% higher than 2012. On the contrary, share price for most of the plantantions companies are trading at about 30- 50% below the high in 2012. What a divergence! I believe the share price increase yesterday is just the beginning of the recovery. Enjoy the recovery ride .
ya well said titan3322 - less than 5% shareholding but its still over 20 million shares so there's always a risk of huge selldown when they sell further
Obviously, SOP latest quarterly earning EPS is just 0.37cent more than TAANN, but the share price of SOP is almost 80cent more than TAANN. This indicates that TAANN share price got big discount. If SOP share price can hit RM6.62, TAANN also can reach at least RM6.00.
TAANN make good profit from its associate oil palm company, SWKPLNT. TAANN is the largest shareholder of the SWKPLNT. Both TAANN & SWKPLNT give dividend generously.
@Invest 888,. I also think that there's deeper value in Taann than SOP at this juncture, though both are really underappreciated by the market. If not because EPF has been dampening the share price , Taann would reached SOP's price level . Once EPF stop selling, Taann will fly .
I am pleased to share the projected full year (2021) EPS and the prospective PE of some of my favorite plantation counters. The Projected EPS is based on actual 1H + Q3+Q4. Q3 EPS can be estimated fairly accurately as Q3 avg CPO prices is known and production numbers are mostly available . I also make the assumption that Q4 EPS is same level as Q3 for reasons that ASP Q4 seem to be even higher and labourers for plantantion sector are coming in to maximize crop recovery. Given that Nov/Dec is usually seasonally lower crops, but the higher ASP and labour availability should be enough to offset that, On above basis , the FY 2021 EPS and prospective PE based on yesterday closing share price as as follows:
Bplant. EPS 9.6sen , PE 7.1x THplant. EPS 16.5sen , PE 4.4x SOP. EPS 73.0sen. PE 5.3x MHC. EPS 20.9sen. PE 4.5x Cepat. EPS 13,9sen. PE 5.2x Swkplt. EPS 48sen. PE 5.2x Taaan. EPS 67.9sen PE 4.6x Hsplant. EPS 23.6sen. PE 9.3X.
Historical PE for plantation counter is 15 to 25x As such, plantation counters are seriously underappreciated by the market , especially amid poor KLSE sentiment.
Can 2021's earning be sustained in 2022? You will be surprised! Hope this perspective helpful for your investment decision.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
OnTime
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Posted by OnTime > 2021-10-01 15:48 | Report Abuse
manipulation