Knock....knock.......knock........ Anybody there.............?? Where is my dear bro CCH, sis spidee, sicheh newdesk and other siheng?? All the smart beings already exited from the market? These are all smart investor.......so smart......:)
hi my bro STKoay, how are you? Nice to read your fond mentioning of the hum sup committee's names & yes, it has been some time since the hum sup committee congregated here:))
Pls be informed I still have investment in KSL & remain convinced of the sound value of this stock. May month is traditionally a lousy month & also not helped by political news. But I have no doubt its true value will shine in the not too distant future. Cheers to the hum sup committee members & all members herein :))
Q1 EPS = 8.82sen, annualized 35sen, valuation at very undemanding of just 5x. Based on KSL 40% dividend policy payout from 2015 financial year onward, the EPS translate into 14sen total dividend or yield 7.9% !! I think is one of the highest yield stock in bursa, even much better than REITS.
These dividend is expected to be payable semi-annually: interim dividend in next Q2 result, follow by final dividend in Q4 result.
Remark: KSL currently trade cum 5 sen final dividend for last 2014 financial year
According to KSL latest financial result, property development command gross profit margin 40%, investment properties command as high as gross profit margin of 62.5%. KSL balance sheet also show great improvement: reduce borrowing to RM 143m (-8.6%), increase cash level to 87.8m (+31%), reduce net borrowing to just RM 55m. With KSL such strong quarter net profit of RM 88m per quarter, it is expect to turn KSL into net cash position when it release next Q2
KSL also report increase in shareholder equity to RM 1216m (+7.3%), further improved net gearing ratio by almost half from 0.078 to just 0.045, and such net gearing ratio will become 'irrelevant' once KSL turn into net cash position very soon in next Q2 result.
If KSL's management want the price to rise to its true value, it will have to aggressively counter the wolves now that it is arming itself with a share buy-back policy. Much like what Hapseng is doing.
I more prefer KSL to payout dividend instead of use cash to buyback from open market. With 40% dividend policy, KSL will payout interim 7sen in Q2 and another 7 sen in Q4, These 14sen dividend will offer very good support to the share price. It will be alike UOAdev, in which share price will be less susceptible to market volatility for high yield stock. In addition, similar to UOAdev, KSL also adopt dividend reinvestment scheme to minimize cash payout, increase equity as most of the shareholder will opt for these scheme to continue enjoy and growth their stake in these high margin, high ROE, high yield stock.
Contrarily, share buyback tend to render opportunity to 'wolves' trading and capitalize company buyback. It is less efficient, and stock unlikely to gain good support through share buyback. There are many such example: Parkson, IOI prop, IOI corp, kulim, WCT etc.
Of course, if company afford, it can payout high dividend + aggressive share buyback. But, it will deplete company cash resource fast. In view of current property glut, it is best for KSL to preserve its.0 cash hoard but at the same time reward shareholder through dividend reinvestment scheme, gradually turning company into net cash position in next few month ahead for such company with huge landbank 2100 ares, sustainable earning with market demanding landed property in klang and johor (gross profit margin 40%), great high margin investment properties, mall, hotel, hypermarket (gross profit margin 62%), trading at undemanding valuation PE 5x, high dividend yield 7.8%.
hng33. Your points noted. But I have done my calculations. It doesn't take much to deter the wolves. Just an about RM8 million revolving fund to buy and sell or retain in Treasury and/or use to distribute in lieu of cash dividend. Dividend payout at 40% of say RM250m to RM320M is RM100M to RM128M. So RM8m for share support and share dividend is a miniscule 6.25% to maximum 8% of cash dividend payout. Company loses nothing in terms of additional cash-out flow. It is just using committed cash-outflow to support the share price. With investors' confidence returning, less share support will be required and the share price will rise to its fair value. Then more will opt for shares instead of cash dividends and share price for dividends can then be higher, leaving more cash available for business investment, pare down borrowings and therefore less interest expense. E.g. if the share price is RM2.8, the share price for dividend in lieu can be set at RM2.50. So if 50% opt for shares instead of cash, KSL will only have to issue 40 million to 51.2 million new shares instead of 63.7 million to 81.5 million new shares if the price is set at RM1.57 as previously. Share dilution will also be less and share price will go higher. So it is in the interest of all (but the wolves hoping to collect on the cheap) if the price commensurate with its fair value. But the share price support must be robust and timing skillful to maximise the punishment for the wolves in order to deter them. Not passive like what is now observed; which allows the wolves to time and execute their raids with precision (like in February 2015)!
For those who are not so proficient with figures, let me summarise: If KSL's management effectively support the price and neuter the wolves, then price will rise to fair value, less shares issue for dividend in lieu, less share dilution, DY/share will be less diluted, share price will rise consistently, no extra cash out-flow, long term investor confidence cultivated, share price will then command a premium as it moves towards blue-chip status. The exact opposite/reverse will be true if no effective/skillful share price support. Even cash out-flow for dividend cash payout will increase because more will opt for cash due to unstable share price and share dilution. Therefore the bottom-line: KSL's management must not allow its share price to be thrashed and counter the wolves skillfully and aggressively. If not the costs to KSL and investors will increase exponentially with each successful raid by the KLSE wolves! KSL's insiders will also be under credible suspicion of direct involvement!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
stkoay
6,490 posts
Posted by stkoay > 2015-05-28 12:11 | Report Abuse
Knock....knock.......knock........
Anybody there.............??
Where is my dear bro CCH, sis spidee, sicheh newdesk and other siheng??
All the smart beings already exited from the market?
These are all smart investor.......so smart......:)