My apology too, was commenting to SinGor. Got carried away. Politics affect the share market and every counter in it, not a little but with great effect. Will not bore you anymore, time to go away.
Gheekong, After Nazir Razak's new offer(1rhb=1.38cimb) in Business Times, I am no longer pessimistic about RHB shares. I figure at buying price for Islamic shares @ RM3.53/share. The listing of Mega Islamic Bank must be atleast 1.5X and with some run up, I will end up close to RM10/share. Now even OSK holding is running steady. I bet many MBAs already figure that out.
Rhb share price from now until merger is unfortunately linked to Cimb because of the exchange rate of share. Rhb on its own can weather the storm. What is important is how the mega bank will perform and how they communicate to investors. There are so many unstable variables now, eg. oil price, how Indonesia will perform, US interest rate, value of the ringgit, competition from other ASEAN countries not to mention economic performance of Europe and Japan and how politically stable Malaysia is. These are only a small number of things that need to be considered. Fear has gripped the share market for now. Psychology side of investing kicks in rather than the numerical side. Osk is under value that is why it is holding steady. Next year end 2015 result for Osk will be very different from 2014 as the profits from Osk property and share of Pjd profit will be taken into account. Everyone is waiting for Ong to give back some money to Osk shareholders too. I wonder how much the warrant is worth.
GheeKong- I only fear US interest rate and Europe. Low oil price is God blessing to China and Japan industries. If these 2 Giants are not collapsing, Malaysia's export will be okay. Just delay GST and lower electricity rate--this will have effect on inflation. Addicted/abused to Petronas subsidy is really a big headache now.
By the look of things, even Phd holders have a hard time analyzing. Your guess is as good as them. Something obvious like Osk shareholders will collect 7.5 cents dividend plus 15 cents special dividend which will give you 22.5 cents, that is more than 10% dividend next year, have not even taken free warrant into account but investors still panic sell. I have to stop writing for a while, happy new year to you, SinGor and everyone in this forum.
jkhoo99--pls read the latest The Edge. Some problem with asset evaluations between MBSB and the 2 banks. This is just my Day dream, EPF will scoop RHB shares and dump them in some unknown co. so that Aabar voting % will stay at 36%. Already EPF is buying CIMB shares for the last 2 days so maybe it is RHB's turn
Regardless what ppl said about Osk Hold, I will be receiving 30 cents/share in 2015. The bursa guy who rejected EPF request will be selling Salted Duck eggs in some Kampung market. But damn I really admire his courage. The whole mega bank initiative is PM Najib Pet project. He is going to park Mega Islamic Bank in Tun Razak Exchange and Mega Islamic Insurance and so forth. All these for his father Tun Razak. Do tell me what are the changes that this Mega bank not forming?
I'm just try to interpret what you mean by 'I will be receiving 30 cents/share in 2015' in your earlier post. However, the total cash dividend and warrant gain from special dividend, upcoming regular final dividend and expected at least 40sen once warrant is listed are highly achievable in 2015. This is on top of catalyst from the completion of Mega-bank through capital appreciation. Therefore, it seem safe to expect total return at least 15% for OSK. Under my radar list now, a potential core stock to enter into my portfolio.
Hng33- Actually I based dividend for 2015 to be 7.5 cents (same as 2014) after Sept 2015. Special dividend @ 15 cents. So dividend alone is 22.5. Now the hard part, warrant value? It really depend oil price on second half of 2015. I got a banker projection on oil price. So I go around asking people who know about warrant price. And the range is between 5 - 15 cents I took the mid range ie 7.5 cents. So this is how I came out with 30 cents. But a new oil projection came from China friend which place oil price @ $75/barrel-end 2015(rather upbeat) I checking with others. Even with 30cents, Osk can go down to RM 1.55 and I am still breaking even Next year. Bcos I bought between 1.72 to 2.00 average around 1.87
franceong--MBSB is Not a bank to start with. Basically it is Property Lender therefore it does not need to adhere to banking standard for its asset. That is reason MBSB is bought with Cash( no question ask). Who set the banking standard? Bank Negara. Who wants the Mega Bank- PM Najib (Bank Negara Boss). I remember reading CIMB Boss said ALL options on the Table. What ever Aabar's voting advantage has right up to now could be diluted rapidly if ALL options are on Table. Somebody already plan to take down Aabar by all means.
read my comment, did I say MBSB is a bank? Did PM Najib ever say he wants this mega bank? His brother want this mega bank not PM Najib. All options on the table? Reason why many friends selling OSK.
Why sell OSK? Because OSK is as good/bad as that person (OLH?) controlling OSK. Many companies had sold assets and rewarded their shareholders handsomely. OSK? What did shareholders get when OSKIB is sold to RHB Bank? F**T!!! So how is OSK becoming attractive when OLH practically "pockets" everything. So 15 sen plus free 1:4 warrants is still kacang putih for me. So sell OSK. BUT the problem is that when we sell OSK someone collects those shares and when OLH becomes generous who becomes FATT TAT.
Type Announcement Subject MULTIPLE PROPOSALS Description OSK HOLDINGS BERHAD ("OSKH" OR THE "COMPANY")
I. PROPOSED OSKP ACQUISITION; II. PROPOSED PJD ACQUISITION; III. PROPOSED OSKP OFFER; IV. PROPOSED PJD OFFER; V. PROPOSED DIVERSIFICATION; VI. PROPOSED EXEMPTION; VII. PROPOSED BONUS ISSUE OF WARRANTS; VIII. PROPOSED SPECIAL CASH DIVIDEND; IX. PROPOSED INCREASE IN AUTHORISED SHARE CAPITAL; AND X. PROPOSED AMENDMENTS
(COLLECTIVELY REFERRED TO AS THE "PROPOSALS")
The terms used herein, unless the context otherwise stated, bear the same meaning as those defined in the earlier announcements in relation to the Proposals.
We refer to the announcements made by RHB Investment Bank Berhad ("RHBIB"), on behalf of the Board of Directors of OSKH ("Board"), on 15 October 2014 and 8 December 2014.
On behalf of the Board, RHBIB wishes to announce that the relevant applications in relation to the Proposals have been submitted to the following authorities:-
hanting999. You are right that OLH throws some coins and pocket ALL the Big Notes. Pls dont mention OSKIB again--I burnt all ten fingers that time. I am a small fish so what ever bread crumbs OLH is throwing out I will pick it up. Looking at 2015 this 30 cents offer ( 15%+dividend+warrant) is next best things compare to Puncak. Warrant price between 30 - 50 cents is achievable now because Saudi has just projected oil price $80 for its 2015 budget and China 3rd largest oil world importer is estimating oil price @75 for 2015. I have no benchmark for OSKH share in 2015 so based on NTA 2.85 is next best things. For a small run up 5% after RHB/CIMB merger is RM 3.00 And a Good run said 20% is RM3.42 I am keeping my fingers crossed
SinGor, Sorry to hear that you had burnt all ten fingers because of the OSKIB (oops, I mention 'it' again} affair. Come to think of it; anyone who comes into contact with OLH's counters would have their fingers (plus toes) burnt. You seem to be so confident of the rise of price of OSK. Please don't expect too much from OLH. The jewel in OSK is those 10% holding of RHB shares. Nothing more. OSKP and PJD would not benefit OSK much considering the big base of OSK shares. Plus what does anyone expect from OLH? 15 sen and 1:4 free warrants. (Chicken makan). Another thing: How do you keep your fingers crossed when they are burnt? (Ha x3, no offense meant.)
Hanting999. I have bought FireRetardant lotion this time. Thanks for your advice. 10% RHB is worth 2 Billion++ Cash if OLH can sell them. What a 70++years Old man want? Money all the way to next live ( China Emperor--Live Forever)
haahaa. When Lehman Brothers goes Bankrupt in 2008, Bloomberg news said the world banking system & stockmarket would collapse. But EPF contributed 2-3 billions ringgit (maybe more )to prop up the stockmarket every year until now. Foreign investor said Bursa has the biggest stock party in asia and if you missed it--you should be sorry. Sure 2015 is going to be soft but it also depends which stock you choose. Afraid of oil price collapse Buy Airasia
SP0094701. I think AAX will suffer loads reduction too. For the whole of 2014 I am flying Qatar & UAE plane even saudi because they offer Good fares and Full service (Leg room very important for long haul). The Arabs are using oil to expand their market shares very rapidly. Local AA has monopoly.
Osk's uptrend depends on RHB (for atleast 2-3 months before Mega bank merger happens). RHB has recovered less than 1/3 from latest selloff. But TA has recommend buy on RHB because RHB has a new agreement with Tokio Marine Life Insurance that pays about 210m to RHB
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Posted by Gheekong > 2014-12-02 16:03 | Report Abuse
My apology too, was commenting to SinGor. Got carried away. Politics affect the share market and every counter in it, not a little but with great effect. Will not bore you anymore, time to go away.