Posted by elbrutus > 2019-06-08 15:09 | Report Abuse

Surewind bro ...as a guideline ..previous SD 40cts ex price was 2.64 ...with proposed 90cts SD i strongly believe around 2.30 to 2.50

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-08 15:20 | Report Abuse

ELBRUTUS....as much as i would like to answer you as to how much. AA ex price would be...but i rather not cos if i do, i am sure i will be bombarded later by some ans also being accused of promoting AA. :)

Posted by elbrutus > 2019-06-08 15:22 | Report Abuse

bro ...no worries lah ...a calculated guess is as nprmal as every other thing ..i give u d ..tham ...to guess guess ...ok

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-08 15:22 | Report Abuse

As a guidance, i quote CIMB RAYMOND valuation of 1.56. So Raymond ez price will be 1.56-0.90= 0.66:)

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-08 15:24 | Report Abuse

If i take NOMURA analyst valuation of 5.20, Nomura ex price would be 5.20-0.90=4.30

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-08 15:24 | Report Abuse

To me both CIMB and Nomura valuation for ex are quite unlikely. I would say in the middle

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-08 15:25 | Report Abuse

If u know what i mean, somewhwre in the middle will be my humble guess

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-08 15:27 | Report Abuse

ELBRUTUS...your guess of the ex price is very likely and realistic

Posted by elbrutus > 2019-06-08 15:27 | Report Abuse

so ..4.30 + 0.66 = 4.96 / 2 = 2.48 ....right on ..ok what !!!

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-08 15:28 | Report Abuse

ELBRUTUS...your guess on the ex is close to whats in my head:)

Posted by elbrutus > 2019-06-08 15:32 | Report Abuse

wise men think alike ...hahaha ...joking eh ...dont shoot d writer ..ok

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-08 15:33 | Report Abuse

ELBRUTUS....hahahaha

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-08 15:36 | Report Abuse

Again, there may be surprises along the way towards 29.07.....any news on their E platform and progress will send the price spinning...and any news that AA given approval by jokowi to build their own low cost terminal will drive it crazy....thats why i took my bet of all the possible good flow taking onto account the bad ones that o already knew i.e. high brent crude and tough operating environment

Posted by elbrutus > 2019-06-08 15:39 | Report Abuse

as always AA will come around n emerge even STRONGER ...i m sure !!

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-08 15:41 | Report Abuse

And as it draws closer to the date of phil IPO, the price will reflects..

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-08 15:43 | Report Abuse

And dun forget the Thai and Indo possible IPO. This suxker TF is good in creating value and then cash in:)

Posted by Value Investor Coo1eo > 2019-06-08 15:59 | Report Abuse

Wow! did not expect such a huge backlash and emotionally charged messages at my RM0.80 comment....take it easy guys, everyone is entitled to their view of how AA3.0 is going to pan out amid the current e-commerce and aviation landscape.
RM0.80 is my most PESSIMISTIC view (worst case) of how i see the price trading a year from now and I am asking myself if I am ok with that or not when i am looking to get in now...or "stay away"
How I get RM0.80.....I am using the worst case forward looking PEx of 13 FY19/20

Yes, track record and past achievements have a lot going for AirAisa as a leader in low cost esp in ASEAN region. Growing from 2 planes to 100s in a market where you are competing with national carriers like MAS and redefining air travel in this region then taking inspiration from Ryan Air is one thing and AA did very well.
But let's look beyond "now everyone can fly" in ASEAN.
Let's look at AAX. Let's look at Air Asia India. Here AA did not do so well...yet. AA has not been able to understand those markets. There was also AirAsiaGo in the past...and did work well.
And amid this, TF wants to go change his successful tag line to "Now everyone can travel" by taking on Grab, Expedia, Booking.com etc...
I maybe a little conservative, but when a company moves away from its core competence and want to do everything else....like enter Fintech, Logistics, OTA, e-commerce.....i have some reservations.
Dealing with a lot of "data" and trying to decode the consumer behavior....
Not saying AA 3.0 will not be successful...but there are just too many variables. Yes, Amazon did it....but many companies who moved away from their core and they to put their hands into too many things had also failed miserably....sure AA wants to be the Amazon of travel. As a Malaysian I would be so proud if AA is successful but it may take time to disrupt this space and make money. Amazon is not making money but they get such valuations....because that's Wall Street. But in Bursa do we get such valuations if you lost money?
So yes, an AA investor have to be for the long haul...and watch every move of TF. Because hiring a bunch of very expensive and good looking Ivy League executives, tweeting when having drinks, glamorizing selling assets to pay yourself RM 1 Billion and having analyst give you a buy call is not enough.
I agree...AA3.0 is a wonderful and clever PLAN. Now it's about EXECUTION...and the competitive landscape today is not like MAS in the 2000s...it's a different game all together. This space is very disruptive and unpredictable. I can akin to Laser Disc and DVD in the past....we dont know which way it will go.
If I was TF and am in for the long haul, I would not payout all the monies from the sales of planes. I would not suck my cash dry. Will keep some la.
To grow e-commerce and ancillary business and brands will need the cash...lots of it.
I read an article that to enable ROKKI (wifi) in 1 plane it cost USD 1M...and ROKKI CEO wants to enable all the AA Malaysia planes with ROKKI.
All that said....I am "cautiously excited" to see AA's dreams and plan. May decide to "wet my feet" and see what happens.
So using PEx 13...worst case RM0.80 ....base case RM1.60 and best case RM2.6?
Happy Trading

Posted by elbrutus > 2019-06-08 16:01 | Report Abuse

bro ..after such lengthy explainationnnn...bottom line ...whats d next step ???

Posted by Value Investor Coo1eo > 2019-06-08 16:05 | Report Abuse

@elbrutus Why u ask me next step? U make that choice.

As for me I already said..i will wet My feet and enjoy the feeling .. Not jump in the pond completely la.

Posted by elbrutus > 2019-06-08 16:06 | Report Abuse

ok lah ...might be a good suggestion lah ...hihihi

Posted by Secrecy > 2019-06-08 16:09 | Report Abuse

( AK) Value Investor comment: I response

If you are Tony and Kamaruddin , Malaysia will have another great brand like Air Asia.

That is called the spirit of entrepreneurship and vision.

We are just small potato with tiny brain without entrepreneurship and the courage . Just always talk cock and take others advantage.

We are just " frogs live in the well " having tiny little vision to the outside world.

Why I'm saying we are frogs......? All comments in this forum proved that we are frog.

Although we are frog, we can ride on Tony and Kamaruddin's entrepreneurship so that we can enjoy the fruitful result.

An objective question:
A: Support Tony and Kamaruddin
B: Stay neutrality
C: Oppose them
D: stay away from investment.

I choose to be a frog resting on their shoulder. They will bring us to the much bigger vision of outside world.

Posted by elbrutus > 2019-06-08 16:12 | Report Abuse

i seconded that

Posted by fitman > 2019-06-08 16:15 | Report Abuse

my guess bursa ci 1650, AA after ex 2.2, bursa 1700, AA after ex 2.5

Posted by calvincheebursa > 2019-06-08 16:15 | Report Abuse

Oklah change topic for a while .....,.Look out for Eduspec .........hihihi

Posted by fitman > 2019-06-08 16:16 | Report Abuse

bursa 1600, AA ex 2.0

Posted by fitman > 2019-06-08 16:17 | Report Abuse

so AA ex price widely depends on overall mkt condition during that time

Posted by Value Investor Coo1eo > 2019-06-08 16:28 | Report Abuse

@secrecy good decision to be that frog. Am sure would do well.

While I also will enter AA given the 3.0 dream..
I choose to be considering all the factors and be very sceptical when I invest so I am fully prepared (mentally) when things do not go as planned. I call this taking care of the downside.

End of the day. We are retail investor with limited bullets. So, little bit of caution is not a bad idea, dont u think so?

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-08 16:35 | Report Abuse

VALUED INVESTOR COO...first let me correct if i may.....we are neither emotionally charged nor backlashing you or bombarding you. For me, i am just asking whats your basis. For others they are just asking of you have any AA THEY WILL BUY IT OFF plus 20 sen premium. Are we emotionally charged? Hardly any. :)

And for your worse case scenario of assigning PER of 13x, what would be your FY19/20 EPS? And for your best case scenario, what will be your EPS? I m just a normal street person with little knowledge of valuation. Kindly enligthen me. Thanks. Also your best case do you incorporate the proceed to be received from possible phip IPO?

Also when you assigned PER of 13x is on what basis? Is it via-a-vis the other airlines or you take the average of the industry standard deviation? And why 13x? Not 10 or 8? I m curious

Posted by fitman > 2019-06-08 17:10 | Report Abuse

monday 3.0

Posted by Betkaukau > 2019-06-08 17:14 | Report Abuse

Why N17 so quiet? Where he’s hiding now? Come lah join the fun. Our beloved fun manager !!!!

Posted by Value Investor Coo1eo > 2019-06-08 17:32 | Report Abuse

Hahaha... Surely sense emotionally charged some messages. You do not need to clarify. I sense the agitation from 80 den I put out la... So Not sure why you say "we"... Suddenly seems like it's all of you vs me. Relax la. I also am a small timer trying to make sense of this.. Lol!

Difference is that I am being sceptical and put my view of AA3.0 and TF's ambition to disrupt. At this juncture to put RM1B in his pocket....maybe he has plans.

13 is just a number I use. Am no analyst or authority. So not going to defend that number. Why 13 and not 15 or 20...i cannot answer you. Take it whichever way u like.
Also I didnt consider Phil IPO in my "analysis"
FYI my Best case EPS =RM0.2x13=RM2.60

Happy trading.

Posted by free2invest > 2019-06-08 18:13 | Report Abuse

I can see many foreign tourists in KL recently. AA must be benefited from this. Have a nice weekend to all!

Posted by stockmkt101 > 2019-06-08 18:24 | Report Abuse

Ringgit getting stronger!

Posted by shrobin > 2019-06-08 18:26 | Report Abuse

Look out for the foreign shareholdings % number by early next month(early July). It should be able to tell some story. If the % reverses more than 33.59%, it is a good sign that indicates foreign shareholdings selling has ended. If it is still going lower than 33.59%. Then look at the delta whether is big or small. While i believe the local institutions have been absorbing the selling by foreigners since 2018, it is important that the selling must ease off before it can create a condition for an uptrend reversal.

33.59% is at a historical low, the historical high was about 60%. While i don't know how low it can gets to, all i can say the selling pressure should not be so great now!

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-08 19:45 | Report Abuse

集旅游时尚交通和金融服务 亚航打造一站式网站app

Posted by Value Investor Coo1eo > 2019-06-08 21:57 | Report Abuse

अंग्रेजी में बात कर मादर चोट

Posted by JN88 > 2019-06-08 22:43 | Report Abuse

관광 패션 및 금융 서비스 설정

Posted by Sifu Wang > 2019-06-09 11:50 | Report Abuse

its all depend on the last price b4 exdate. if the price can push up to 4.00 b4 exdate, then the price after exdividen is much higher around 3.00. so just wait until end of next month.

Posted by Sifu Wang > 2019-06-09 11:53 | Report Abuse

people that hold aa until the ex date will be able to judge correctly. let say the price is 4.00, that mean can earn a big fat dividend and extra capital gain after exdate. estimated 40% to 50% profit. there is a chance to hit 4.00 since more positive news are coming out

Posted by Will8080 > 2019-06-09 15:06 | Report Abuse

Anyone here is going AGM? Let’s meet up together there!

Posted by tash1 > 2019-06-09 16:00 | Report Abuse

Betkaukau don’t call that fun manager to come here again pls hahah

Posted by JN88 > 2019-06-09 18:28 | Report Abuse

No chance to hit 4.0.....100% confirmed.....

Posted by 1675875085772982 > 2019-06-09 19:37 | Report Abuse

Hit 3.50 pun sudah cukup. Hope KLSE up sampai 1700. Sure got hope. Wakkakakak

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-09 20:02 | Report Abuse

Anythg is possible either up or down. 2.50? Or 2.50? Is anyone’s guess

Posted by Sifu Wang > 2019-06-09 20:15 | Report Abuse

nothing is impossible. TF are pushing out more positive news to push up the price before exdate so that aa stock will not be undervalued. higher price means his wealth will be increased tremendously eventhough after paying dividend

Posted by Sifu Wang > 2019-06-09 20:17 | Report Abuse

as long TF and other directors hold on all the majority stocks, the price will be supported and will not go down. only need to create demand to push up the price even more

Posted by Sifu Wang > 2019-06-09 20:48 | Report Abuse

the malay investors will rush to push up the price tomorrow after raya

Posted by fitman > 2019-06-09 20:54 | Report Abuse

350 before ex pun cukuplar

Posted by 1675875085772982 > 2019-06-09 23:24 | Report Abuse

Still got 2month Goreng Goreng. Mana tau shark push lagi tinggi. 90sen tak cukup, become 1.80. Wakakakaka. Mana tau hari hari up sampai 4.00. TM before Raya 1days show pun sudah 8.00 plus...

Posted by JN88 > 2019-06-09 23:25 | Report Abuse

factorrumour....you are very smart....but you are wrong...shark will push 90 cents....then ikan bilis will push another 90 cents..so total 4.2