Posted by Win288288 > 2020-08-03 14:37 | Report Abuse

all human x willing to sell at loss n blif will go up again, cheers

Posted by Good123 > 2020-08-03 14:46 | Report Abuse

KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 3): AirAsia X Bhd (AAX) fell as much as two sen or 28.57% in active trade Monday morning, as analysts warned that the worst is yet to come for the carrier after it posted its biggest-ever quarterly loss.

At 11.45am, the long-haul low-cost carrier's shares traded 1.5 sen or 21.43% lower at 5.5 sen, with 53.63 million shares exchanging hands. 

Foreign exchange losses and wrong hedges against higher crude oil prices pulled AAX into a massive net loss of RM549.7 million for its first quarter ended March 31, 2020. 

CGS-CIMB Research has maintained the stock at "reduce" with a lower target price of RM0 (from 0.4 sen), as AAX already fell into a net liability position as at March 31, with the worst yet to come. 

The research house said AAX is now in a desperate attempt to grasp at all the straws it can find. It also believed that the group has not been paying its lessors, maintenance providers and suppliers since fourth quarter 2019 (4Q19).  

“AAX burned through RM140 million in cash during 1Q20 (first quarter ended March 31, 2020) and only has RM219 million left as at March 31. Assuming 1Q20 salary costs of RM105 million are reduced to RM70 million per quarter for the rest of the year, AAX only has enough cash to pay salaries until the end of 2020, not even considering its obligations to its suppliers,” according to the research house's note dated July 31. 

It noted that AAX is currently negotiating with suppliers to reduce aircraft lease rates and to pay on a per-use basis, to early return leased aircraft that is in excess of future requirements, to reduce airport charges, to revisit terms with business partners, and to restructure its fuel hedges with the remaining 30% of counterparties that have yet to agree to defer payments. 

Going forward, CGS-CIMB said AAX’s survival will depend on it securing a new RM500 million bank loan. AAX is negotiating with banks for a new RM500 million loan and it will approach Danajamin Nasional Bhd to guarantee 80% of that loan once gotten approval from the banks. 

“Our view is that it will be unlikely for any bank to agree to provide liquidity unless there is shareholder support. But we have no evidence of either the individual shareholders of AAX, or AirAsia, willing to top up equity, and the Malaysian government has so far not offered state backing (apart from the offer of a Danajamin loan guarantee). 

"In short, we believe that AAX is unlikely to secure the debt or equity funding it needs to see it through the Covid-19 pandemic,” the research house added. 

“Our 'reduce' call is premised on the more probable outcome of AAX failing to secure the new RM500 million financing, and/or failing to secure new equity capital, which may make it the first airline casualty in Malaysia from the Covid-19 fallout,” it further added.

Posted by Good123 > 2020-08-03 14:50 | Report Abuse

On the contrary, CGS-CIMB said its earnings forecasts are premised on AAX successfully securing the RM500 million loan and continuing to defer a significant portion of payments to suppliers in the next 12 to 24 months, which may be unrealistic assumptions, but necessary for the purposes of producing forecasts on a going concern basis. 

The research house now anticipates the group to register a widening net loss of RM2.53 billion in the financial year ended Dec 31, 2020 (FY20). This was compared to its RM489.48 million net loss booked in FY19.

It also expects AAX to continued sinking into red, projecting a net loss of RM1.05 billion for FY21 and RM725 million for FY22. This translates into a loss per share of 61 sen in FY20, 25 sen in FY21 and 17 sen for FY22. 

As AAX is a long-haul airline and it needs to wait a lot longer for international borders to reopen, CGS-CIMB forecasts assumed that AAX’s available seat kilometre capacity in FY20 will only be 22% of its FY19 baseline, with FY21 at 40% of the baseline, and FY22F at 50% of the baseline. 

Even if borders reopen, it added that AAX may have to be a lot more selective on the routes that it flies. 

Meanwhile, PublicInvest Research in a note today said AAX's 1QFY20 net loss was below house and consensus’ loss estimates. 

The research house has widened the core loss estimates for AAX further by RM303.8 million to RM617.3 million for FY20 to FY22, compared to RM73 million to RM283 million previously due to ongoing travel restrictions and longer recovery anticipated for travel demand. 

PublicInvest Research said AAX is now in a severe bind given its negative shareholders’ equity position — which has triggered caution by its external auditors on its ability to continue as a going concern — with the worst of its financial troubles likely yet to be seen.

“Based on our estimates, the group may require at least RM1.2 billion of equity funding to convert its current negative shareholders’ equity to a positive position, though we understand that the bulk of its negative equity were caused by unrealised forex loss and aircraft lease liabilities (under Malaysian Financial Reporting Standards 16 [MFRS 16]). 

"The group could also opt to issue perpetual bonds, though it could be a challenge given its current financial plight and the likelihood of extremely exacting requirements by investors,” said the research house. 

The research house is troubled over AAX's near- to mid-term outlook, with its viability as a going concern an immediate priority. As such, it has maintained its “underperform” call on AAX with a lower target price of one sen. 

According to Bloomberg, AAX has seven analysts covering the stock. Six of them have "sell" calls while one has a "hold" call. 

Year-to-date, AAX has declined 65% from 16 sen on Dec 31, 2019.

Posted by zacseng > 2020-08-03 15:08 | Report Abuse

I wrote a short post about my perspective as a US investor on AirAsia Group https://zacharyseng.blogspot.com/2020/08/airasia-group-highly-levered-malaysian.html

Posted by stockwinner > 2020-08-03 15:11 | Report Abuse

AA kuat LAO SAI, cabut lo kawan kawan. No future

Posted by stockwinner > 2020-08-03 15:14 | Report Abuse

Low cost carrier, how to cut cost lagi? Ban flight here, ban flight there. No income. Cost tinggi. Competition high. Hopeless la...

Posted by stockwinner > 2020-08-03 15:18 | Report Abuse

The route disruption is the killer. How to plan their flight if flights are cancelled here and there?

Posted by Gekzj > 2020-08-03 15:19 | Report Abuse

ban flight is seem like not appropriate solution...Gov. or IATA should resume air flight operation with proper SOP for international flights... Bus can commute already, why not flight? buy n hold for 3-5 years.

Posted by IronShirt > 2020-08-03 15:28 | Report Abuse

only 25 days to next 2Qr results. Why are so eager to loss to your wife savings?

Posted by stockwinner > 2020-08-03 15:31 | Report Abuse

IronShirt Better lose ur wife's than ur oldman's.

Posted by Cyrogx6 > 2020-08-03 15:56 | Report Abuse

20 cents lai !

Posted by tkl88 > 2020-08-03 15:57 | Report Abuse

Damn attractive at current record lowest price @0.60
but no more bullets to add on more shares already... Haiz...

All my bullets use to Sailang yesterday @0.64 already...
Now have to wait for my salary come out on this month end only can top up more Airasia Shares...

Hope it’s share price won’t spike up so fast, so that i able to accumulate more Airasia shares at around @0.60 cents...

Posted by stockwinner > 2020-08-03 16:01 | Report Abuse

tkl88 Good luck gambler.

Posted by winghong996 > 2020-08-03 16:08 | Report Abuse

continue throw this share until covid is end

Posted by profitgrow > 2020-08-03 16:23 | Report Abuse

gg.com for airasia

Posted by 209291 > 2020-08-03 16:34 | Report Abuse

i think will drop to 0.50...just my 2 cent

Posted by IronShirt > 2020-08-03 16:38 | Report Abuse

If RI at 50c at 1 to 1, after RI, AA should be 25c...If you don't have money to pick-up RI, your
loss your Wife and Oldman savings

Posted by IronShirt > 2020-08-03 16:42 | Report Abuse

After RI, outstanding shares is 6.6Bil. AA got to earn 200--300mil per Qr for the rest of 2021 to
push price back to 50C. Look at Sap, you know what i meant

Posted by CUTLOST > 2020-08-03 16:55 | Report Abuse

Technical rebound tmr morning

Posted by tkl88 > 2020-08-03 17:11 | Report Abuse

Not bad, closed at => 0.60 (-0.04) (-6.25%) !
Strong rebound is imminent !

Huat ah ! Heng ah ! Ong ah !

Posted by Stock Wizard (know yourself) > 2020-08-03 17:12 | Report Abuse

can drop more ? wish to buy at lower price

Posted by Good123 > 2020-08-03 17:13 | Report Abuse

RI, 2:1 at 50sen, RM3.3bil masuk AA, mau? those without money can sell their rights

Posted by EatCoconutCanWin > 2020-08-03 17:13 | Report Abuse

waiting below than 0.50

Posted by BlameMeLor > 2020-08-03 17:18 | Report Abuse

hhahah wait la..0.04

Posted by sampooler > 2020-08-03 17:18 | Report Abuse

relax la...

Posted by tkl88 > 2020-08-03 17:23 | Report Abuse

If really got RI implemented, I will standby bullets to subscribe all the RI @0.50

This is golden opportunity time to loaded as much as possible Airasia Shares at current record lowest price...

Huat ah ! Heng ah ! Ong ah !

Posted by lexxi012 > 2020-08-03 17:24 | Report Abuse

The only short-term solution is to convert to air-freight, otherwise byebye....

Posted by lexxi012 > 2020-08-03 17:25 | Report Abuse

Every gloves can fly!

Posted by sampooler > 2020-08-03 17:29 | Report Abuse

today not just AA down... all others also same... cimb, genting, ...many.. etc

Posted by Martingale > 2020-08-03 17:32 | Report Abuse

Thai AirAsia (“TAA”) posted a passenger load factor of 52%, decreased from the same period last year,
due to the unprecedented Covid-19 pandemic. As the government began easing some lockdown
measures, TAA gradually resumed domestic flights in May 2020 with the social distancing measure onboard to comply with the advice and regulations from government and health authorities. The social
distancing was eased in mid of June. In 2Q2020, TAA operated at 8% of total capacity compared with
the same period last year. With the encouraging rebound traffic seen, we operated at 18% of total
capacity in June 2020, which was more than doubled the May 2020 capacity. The number of passengers
carried during the quarter stood at 283,601 or declined by 95% Year-on-Year (“YoY”) to support the
movement of essential travellers and businesses. Available Seat Kilometres (“ASK”) dropped by 95% YoY
as there was an international flight ban during the period. This is reflected in the drop of average stage
length by 42% YoY. In 2Q2020, TAA has resumed service to 18 of its domestic destination, including
Bangkok to Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Hat Yai, Khon Kaen, Nakhon Phanom, Nakhon Si Thammarat,
Roi Et, Surat Thani, Trang, Ubon Ratchathani, Udon Thani, Buri Ram, Krabi, Nan, Narathiwat, Phitsanulok,
Phuket,and Sakon Nakhon. As a result, TAA has the leading capacity market share in Thailand

Posted by EatCoconutCanWin > 2020-08-03 17:46 | Report Abuse

i believe i can fly...i believe i can touch the sky... hahaha

Posted by Lee Kim Chong > 2020-08-03 18:58 | Report Abuse

2nd/3rd wave exploded over in HK, Australia, korea, Vietnam... US 1st also haven't over. The days ahead look no good.

Posted by B4b4 > 2020-08-03 19:04 | Report Abuse

No worries, the vaccine is otw

Posted by infinity888 > 2020-08-03 19:11 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/fdnews/248528.jsp

Singapore airline suffering from 3b loss in Q1, what about airasia next qr? TP RM 0.30

Posted by yong99 > 2020-08-03 19:16 | Report Abuse

buying at 30c

Posted by Good123 > 2020-08-03 19:17 | Report Abuse

regardless, aa needs cash now to survive

Posted by Good123 > 2020-08-03 19:19 | Report Abuse

casino, hotel and airlines related stocks, more to come due to recurring covid wave

Posted by Good123 > 2020-08-03 19:19 | Report Abuse

investors' appetite for airlines stocks is low now.

Posted by Good123 > 2020-08-03 19:21 | Report Abuse

RI , 1:2, Rm1.6bil Akan masuk ... waiting :)

Posted by Good123 > 2020-08-03 19:22 | Report Abuse

RI at 50sen per share is likely

Posted by Good123 > 2020-08-03 20:14 | Report Abuse

Is GE good for airasia if any? Dr Mahathir said those who do not have the capacity to venture into a new business could use gig economy platforms, such as Grab and Foodpanda, to sell their products straight from their own backyard. 

At the end of the session, he reminded the people to be more tolerant of one another to turn Malaysia into an advanced nation. This, he stressed, is because the country is very rich and there are many opportunities for the people to improve themselves, although they have often been distracted by political matters.

“Therefore, the people must be smart in making an assessment of the country. If there is a choice during the general election, then choose as best as possible,” he said while advising the people not to be extremists towards anything.

Posted by mf123 > 2020-08-03 20:36 | Report Abuse

collect on TP 0.40

Posted by Good123 > 2020-08-03 20:40 | Report Abuse

if right issue, Fernandez

Posted by Good123 > 2020-08-03 20:41 | Report Abuse

if major shareholders have no money, then very reluctant for RI

Posted by Good123 > 2020-08-03 20:45 | Report Abuse

RI for rich shareholders. poor shareholders suffer dilution if sell their rights

Posted by Godofgambler > 2020-08-03 21:35 | Report Abuse

Cool down.... Vaccine on the way...
From sputnik russia with love...
Once vaccine out... People will travel normal

Posted by newbie1111 > 2020-08-03 21:39 | Report Abuse

why RI at 50 cents when they can do it at 25 cents?

Posted by Good123 > 2020-08-03 21:48 | Report Abuse

talk about now, no blood now no cash now, can't wait for vaccine haha

Posted by sharewiz118 > 2020-08-03 22:01 | Report Abuse

waiting for tp 0.40

Posted by tkl88 > 2020-08-03 22:15 | Report Abuse

Wow, Oil price continues to spike up !
As at 10.15pm,
Nymex=> $40.82 ‪(+0.55) (+1.37%) !‬
Brent=> $43.88 ‪(+0.36) (+0.83%) !‬