Posted by bsngpg > 2013-09-24 07:04 | Report Abuse

心痛的感觉

Posted by ctyap > 2013-09-24 08:15 | Report Abuse

suddenly up too much .. dividend less than 5% ady

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-24 08:15 | Report Abuse

曾经心痛

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Go92DhuaY7o

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-09-24 13:02 | Report Abuse

I want to copy the Chinese word, but keep on pressing "abuse" wrongly. Do not mean it. Sorry. Screen of iPhone is too small for old finger of me.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-24 13:38 | Report Abuse

I posted the following comments in the Kfima thread less than a year ago. Since then it has gone up by 39%. Is Zhulian overvalued now at RM3.82?

Posted by kcchongnz > Oct 19, 2012 01:45 PM | Report Abuse X
NZ,Is Zhulain a great company? Absolutely.
Zhulian's financial performance, balance sheet and cash flows are absolutely awesome. I did a detail analysis and made a valuation of Zhulian on 27/7/12 when it was 2.17. It has now gone up 27% to 2.75 now. Is it still a good investment at this price? Absolutely in my opinion. My discount free cash flows of owner's earnings using conservative assumption of 8% growth for the next 5 years and 3% thereafter with a discount rate of 10% shows the intrinsic value of Zhulian at 3.40, still another 24% upside. Well done NZ.

Bear in mind that the intrinsic value changes when the business changes in term of growth in revenue and earnings.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-24 13:40 | Report Abuse

Including dividend yield, anybody who has bought Zhulian a year ago would have made at least 45%.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-09-24 14:06 | Report Abuse

intrinsic value calculated last yr was 3.40. Now it is 3.80, about 10%>int value. So do u think it is now fully valued. As value investor should we sell now ?

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-09-24 14:10 | Report Abuse

As I shared before, I calculated the fair value by my way at 2.50 and sold half at 2.50 of the holding. Look at now, 3.80. 心痛的感觉.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-09-24 15:08 | Report Abuse

心痛的感觉

A beautiful girl walked in a romantic restaurant. While browsing thru the menu, a special drink called心痛的感觉 attracted her eyes, costs RM50 a glass. Expecting for a special feel, she decided to order one with money she just earned from selling Zhulian this afternoon. After almost finishing the served plain water, she called the waiter asking for the special drink that she ordered.
Beautiful girl : "can I have 心痛的感觉 which I ordered just now ?"
Waiter points at the glass at front of her chest: "Miss , that is your 心痛的感觉. Would you like to have one more ?"

Beautiful girl :"................Ah !!!心痛的感觉......."



.......not long after Zhulian ups from 2.50 to 3.80.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-24 15:08 | Report Abuse

The 3.40 intrinsic value was based on an estimate growth rate of 8 percent. However last year growth in earnings was much better at about 20 percent. However, I don't use such a high growth rate for estimation of intrinsic value. If I revise the rate to 10 percent, zhulian at 3.82 is already fully valued.

So it all depend on what is the expected growth rate, something which we cannot see but just guess. If zhulian earnings can continue to grow at 20 percent, for the next 5 years, something which I won't bet on, it is worth much more.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-09-24 15:14 | Report Abuse

10 % growth is very reasonable and achievable. Last few years from 2009 to 2013, growth rate on PAT were 27%,10%,6%,9% and 23%.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-24 15:34 | Report Abuse

The mathematics of discount cash flow analysis is exact. If I were to use the last year's growth in earnings of 23% for the next 5 years, and a required return of 10%, the intrinsic value of Zhulian will be RM6.40.

Alas, I don't have a crystal ball and I won't know its future growth rate. to me if a company can compound its growth rate of 15%, that is already very liberal, and I won't use that rate to justify my buying or even holding of a stock.

Zhulian has a compounded annual growth rate of 10% for the last 5 years. In my opinion, if it can sustain that kind of growth rate every year for the next 5 years, it is already quite a feat.

The high growth rate of a company cannot carry on forever. it eventually will slow down because of many factors; size, competitions, economic cycle etc.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-09-24 22:34 | Report Abuse

Hi : Relevance articles in The Star, 24 Sep 2013
1) Re-rating in store for Zhulian? by Kenanga
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/09/07/Rerating-in-store-for-Zhulian.aspx

2) Zhulian could be expanding into Myanmar at the end of this year or early 2014
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/09/24/Boost-for-direct-selling-firms-Zhulian-and-Amway-trading-near-or-at-alltime-high.aspx

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-09-24 22:43 | Report Abuse

Ah Ha : I found the lyric of 曾经心痛 :...這些道理我懂　可是真正面對(2.50 to 3.80)教我如何放得下.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-09-24 22:56 | Report Abuse

Hi : FYI. Main market and contributor of the beloved Zhulian.

The Nation(Thai English Daily, 24Sep2013) : Headline on the front page: A poll found that half of the Thai population is tightening their belts against the tougher times ahead.
The Thai government admitted that Thai exports would increase by only 4%, sharply down from the official target of 7-7.5%.

Posted by wwwcomment > 2013-09-24 23:10 | Report Abuse

To bsngpg, I know the feeling, I once hold myeg and sold at 0.86. See what is the price now.

Posted by bfjn4455 > 2013-09-24 23:20 | Report Abuse

As long as we r happy with the profit we made, nobody can really buy low sell high.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-09-24 23:35 | Report Abuse

COURT HER EVERYDAY :
Only with Pain, I appreciate Love. Having Love in heart, I have passion and persistent. Consequently I COURT HER EVERYDAY till the day she matches me and we tie the knot. Then we live happily ever after as Snow White and the Prince.
Good night.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-09-24 23:45 | Report Abuse

红股派发能力衡量法 - chengyk
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/37426.jsp

Posted by iQBE189 > 2013-09-26 23:29 | Report Abuse

last month my friend told me only rm3.05 now already fly so high... bye ZhuLian

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-10-08 10:06 | Report Abuse

Latest report : possible re-rating. http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kenangaresearch/38157.jsp

Posted by wwwcomment > 2013-10-08 17:07 | Report Abuse

Too bad. Sold all liao.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-10-17 10:49 | Report Abuse

Hi : Pls allow me to 嗮命+ LS(Cantonese) a bit. This "How Xiao(Hock Kian)" Zhulian just keeps on going up in earning and share price, "jiao bei liao lol(Hock Kian)".

In 2011, I have noticed that its PAT was approaching 100mil/year, it is amazing to see that the 100 mil PAT is now exceeded in just 9 months.
One of the reasons I chose Zhulian instead of Amway in the earlier years was the higher PAT by Zhulian.

Will the uptrend in PAT continue? I am pretty confident that it will. Will the uptrend in share price continue ? Sorry I am not sure. But at least I can temporarily “shiok sendiri” at the moment. Ha ! Ha!. Thank you for allowing me to “LS” and “shiok sendiri” a bit.

Please read the latest research report from Kenanga.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kenangaresearch/38634.jsp

Posted by iafx > 2013-10-17 10:53 | Report Abuse

good pick, congratulation!

Posted by wwwcomment > 2013-10-17 22:56 | Report Abuse

Again, sold all too early, too bad

Posted by ppginvest > 2013-10-18 18:42 | Report Abuse

Market value going to take over the lead as compared with amway...

Posted by ktsk88 > 2013-10-19 08:44 | Report Abuse

Still got another that will revalued soon...............HAI-O. Watch out.

Posted by wwwcomment > 2013-10-20 15:58 | Report Abuse

What happen to zhulian? Keep going up.

Posted by ktsk88 > 2013-10-21 13:00 | Report Abuse

Rerating of the stocks due to improved earning. Good dividend payout previously but now the share price is much higher so the payout has drop in tandem unless they announced higher dividend to compensate back this.

Overall a good stock for long term..........................look at Hai-O too. Later will be re-rated too since have similar business model.........Amway already too high.

Posted by cecelia > 2013-10-22 17:01 | Report Abuse

whats wrong today... sell down?

Posted by Stockman > 2013-11-14 21:43 | Report Abuse

up again

Posted by sayandquoteit > 2013-11-15 09:14 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Yin Young Kim > 2013-11-16 15:25 | Report Abuse

Above sayandquoteit is try to seduct you to join trader in pajamas.

Binary Options. ------ It is not stock trading, legally speaking.

Mathematically, it is GAMBLING. You are very likely to lose $. Thank You. OTB

Posted by sasopi87 > 2013-11-18 19:10 | Report Abuse

another counters like DSONIC......

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-18 20:52 | Report Abuse

有点被侮辱的感觉

Posted by Stockman > 2013-11-20 02:36 | Report Abuse

Up as Christmas & Chinese New Year coming

Posted by ctyap > 2013-11-20 08:24 | Report Abuse

unstoptable

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-20 08:48 | Report Abuse

Can you pls elaborate more on "Unstopable".

Posted by ctyap > 2013-11-20 13:10 | Report Abuse

@bsngpg No la .. just suddenly push up from RM3.xx until now in few weeks time. But the PE is little bit high in general but still lower if compared to Amway

Posted by wwwcomment > 2013-11-20 13:38 | Report Abuse

This is another counter I sell too early. The other one is myeg. But if I know TA, will I make different decision?

Posted by 林俊松 > 2013-11-20 17:36 | Report Abuse

I just bought Zhulian on Monday. Up so fast ya.
I expect it to grow steadily.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-21 00:05 | Report Abuse

My assessment on Zhulian (Do Not Buy and DO NOT SELL):

9MFY13, eps=23.32sens. Assume another 8sens from Q4FY13, total eps for FY13 is 31.32sens, PE is 16.3x @RM5.10(the highest since listing in 2007). Div @ 60% DPO=18.8sens=4.2% yield @RM5.10(is still >FD at 3.1%).

At RM5.1 @ PE 16x, the risk of price dropping is higher than the chance of increasing, in my opinion. Nevertheless I do not want to sell a biz with

i) yearly PAT at ~RM150mil(2013) with 26%-31% of net margin
ii) very likely to grow for 10-15% annually for the next few years
iii) 4.2% div yield (2013) and will increase by 10-15% going forward along with PAT
iv) at PE 16x(2013), 14.8x(2014),13.5x(2015), assume 10% growth rate.

At the worst scenario, Bear hits and drags the PE down from 16x to 12x, the price would be RM3.80. That would be OK to me although I will face RM1.3(5.1-3.8) in paper loss, as I still will receive 4.2% yield yearly (assume entry price at RM5.1). 2 yrs later in 2015, RM3.80 is equal to PE 10X with projected eps 38sens(10% growth/yr from 31sen in 2013 to 2015).

If the PE increases to 13.5x in 2015, my stuck entry price at RM5.1 will be fully recovered on top of the 4.2% div yield. It is equal to putting RM5100 in FD with annum rate 4.2% for 2 years.

So, why should I sell now?

Better opportunity elsewhere? I am a simple and not-smart investor who does not know which counter will be better than Zhulian with the same baseline as at today. Therefore I prepare to give back the paper gain so far in exchange for the bright potential future growth in biz and share price.

On optimistic side:

Why should Amway commands higher PE at 20x while PAT(9M: 80mil vs 107mil) and net margin(9M: 12.5% vs 31%) are both less attractive than Zhulian. The only reason which I can think of is that Amway is a Mat Saleh company where people generally having stereotype that the moon of Mat Saleh is rounder than local’s.

Hey men, if Zhulian commands the same PE at 20x as Amway, Zhulian will be traded at RM6.3. He! He! Honestly, I am a conservative guy who does not expect it to reach RM6.30.

Good Luck to all of my dear partners in Zhulian. Cheers !

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-21 07:38 | Report Abuse

Hi KC Chong :
I hope you can again generously share your thinking process on Zhulian.

You calculated in last year the Intrinsic Value of Zhulian at RM3.40 with assumption 8% growth rate and RM6.40 with 23% growth rate. You also said that you would not bet on high growth rate albeit it is possible.

Now it is at RM5.10, do you think Len Yan(冷眼) and you as value investors will still hold on it ? Or should we reap the fruit now?

In this case, I am mature enough to hold myself full responsibility upon whatever your comment is. In fact I have disclosed my position in the above post, just want to learn your thinking process for self improvement.

Thank you.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-11-21 10:08 | Report Abuse

bsngpg, it is always nice to talk to you.

I think you should by now know very well that I am very poor in guessing stock price in the future. No way.

However I do have a personal opinion about Zhulian, a very good company, one of the best in bursa.

I always say a great company may not be a good investment. That depends on the future of the company, how good it generates cash flows. And one can put this estimated future cash flow into a finance model and see what is it worth at present, and then compared with the market price and see if it is worth holding or not. Mathematics is precise, but assumptions aren't.

I have written three posts about Zhulain here putting forward my opinion on Zhulian and I think my opinion is clearly expressed. Your post also showed that you clearly understand what I feel.

You have to make your won judgement. As I have said, I always get wrong in future share price.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-21 10:28 | Report Abuse

Thank you very much on Zhulian.

I am monitoring your MBL for sometimes already. Have not taken any action yet. Do you want to give some booster? Thank again.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-21 10:31 | Report Abuse

I believe we will have more same counters in the next Bear. But not now.

Posted by Tang Michael > 2013-11-21 10:36 | Report Abuse

Mbl is in the same business as boilermac....Boiler is now at the higher end while mbl is still waiting yo advance......good to collect......good day

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-21 10:40 | Report Abuse

Hi Michael: can we go to thread of MBL, I have few questions to ask. But I need to attend a meeting soon, will ask questions after work. Thank you very much in advance.

Posted by Tang Michael > 2013-11-21 11:06 | Report Abuse

Mbl is very generous with its dividens......better than fix deposit......another good counter is yilai..........nice dividen...can collect

Posted by sayandquoteit > 2013-11-25 17:55 |

Post removed.Why?