SELLING RECOMMENDATIONS from Alliance 15 May 2012 JCY (5161) – Cut loss JCY was recommended as a short term buy on 25 April at RM1.57 after breaking above the short term 30-day moving average with good volume. Since then, the price has failed to rally and moved downward. Yesterday, JCY dropped RM0.10 to close at RM1.37, which was below our initial stop loss level of RM1.40. Therefore, we recommend a sell for JCY to cut loss.
This is a typical example of a wrong TA call from a broker firm. The 30-day moving average @ 25 April should be RM1.25. On 25 April, the price traded beyond upper bollinger band (consider widely stretched at the time) with volume around 22m which was less than the previous day. It opened gap up @ 1.59 and closed@ 1.58 with a high of 1.62 and a low of 1.53. To me this is a sign of weakness as the price movement and closing indicated distribution or profit taking. Technically speaking, when the price is traded beyond upper or lower bollinger band especially when the upper and lower band are wide apart, there is a tendency for the price to move back towards the middle band. Since then the price had been moving south.
Buy @1.57 and cut loss @1.4 a loss of ~11% is really a violation of the principle Buy Low - Sell High.
Likewise for FA, OSK called to sell 30 Nov 2011 when a Buy should be called. We all knew, JCY was unaffected by Thai Flood whereas its competitors suffered heavy losses. Common sense will tell you JCY, being unaffected, surely will benefit from it all. Yet OSK called to sell JCY.
Be it FA or TA, when misinterpreted could result in losses.
All this said and done, we should be doing our homework before entering our trade. Hope this help.
Mr Lamken,Appreciate you time and information,Please share with me your information.I hope to gain more knowledge for you. My E-mail meljohnsg@yahoo.com
thats not half of it. after nice last quarter rpt, shares bulled, in spite of warrants. interesting to see how far it can go now, no warrants in near term step around... :)
The announcement is about the second factory in China officially operating. This second factory is about 3 time the size of 1st factory. Is about 237000 sf. they spend about 45 millions to get the factory done.
1. can you imagine what will the future profit like with 3 times of the size of current output? Maybe more 2. Can you imagine with such capabilities, Seagate might gave out the LTA to JCY soon
Exactly the question I have been waiting for. More details on appetizer 1 will be provided tonight. And no it got nothing to do with Q2 announcement or factory in China. All I can say for now is as of tommorrow, the cowboys strangle hold on this counter will be over.
Diablo: If you are JCY top management, will you spend so much putting up a new factory when the LTA is not confirmed? My guess is that, they already got it in hand, just yet to announce to public only. Profit will sure be maintained if not increased (discounted by the fact that the HDD prices are getting lower back to pre-flood level)
usry - i don't think there will be a mega sale. there will be ur usual contra kaki's but over-all i thk price will still be holding or trending due to earnings and dividends. just my opinion.
Hi Mr. Lamken, I have been reading this forum for sometime now. And I have always valued your postings and others too. You have been a very useful source. Today i registered in this forum just to provide you my email so that you will not count me out on your "knowledge sharing". My email is mmariasusai@yahoo.com. Cheers to all the postings shared so far
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
meorwz
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Posted by meorwz > 2012-05-16 11:04 | Report Abuse
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