Posted by AbangRedTea > 2023-02-15 17:39 | Report Abuse

EPF got a lot of bullet withdrawn from myeg, just stay tune and wait it to break RM10. Blue chip FTW in current market.

Posted by planta2 > 2023-02-16 08:06 | Report Abuse

Will today finally break rm10?

Posted by speakup > 2023-02-16 08:10 | Report Abuse

TP 12

Posted by speakup > 2023-02-17 10:30 | Report Abuse

Once 10 pecah, 11 will.be very fast

Posted by cwc1981 > 2023-02-20 11:21 | Report Abuse

Should have got news coming from the budget

Posted by flyhub888 > 2023-02-20 19:31 | Report Abuse

bila budget announce

Posted by cwc1981 > 2023-02-20 20:01 | Report Abuse

This Friday

Posted by speakup > 2023-02-20 21:30 | Report Abuse

if u believe rm10 will pecah, better buy now. Cos once rm10 pecah, very fast will touch rm11

Posted by planta2 > 2023-02-21 12:55 | Report Abuse

Once tariff hike announced for big companies, touching rm12 should be easy peasy

Posted by TreeTopView > 2023-02-22 10:20 | Report Abuse

As it follows the overall market down, the 9.77 Fib. point has been broken and it's currently floating around the next lower Fib. point of 9.72. Considering how the KLCI has performed over the past week it's probably not surprising it's sitting at current levels.

No fatal damage done to the chart yet. Let's see if the budget and the quarterly can put a bit of gas in the tank and move it in the direction most of us want to see it going.

Good luck.

Posted by planta2 > 2023-02-22 11:18 | Report Abuse

Wait for Friday

Posted by TreeTopView > 2023-02-22 11:22 | Report Abuse

I hope it doesn't close below 9.62.

Currently falling on relatively small volume, so I'm hoping it will bounce off the 9.62 price point. Looking lacklustre, though.

Posted by ismetulamraja > 2023-02-22 12:59 | Report Abuse

take this opportunity to top up some shares

Posted by sasword > 2023-02-22 16:08 | Report Abuse

The power of EPF money laundering

Posted by prudentinvestor > 2023-02-22 17:06 | Report Abuse

@sasword, don't bother to post any comments on the i3investor forums if you can't comply with the rules. I am surprised you have not been banned for life from the forums.

Posted by LadyRepins > 2023-02-23 12:54 | Report Abuse

concur with @TreeTopView trend is intact if viewed on weekly. Fib levels being followed, though depends where you pull the peak/low from. My fib view is derived from the major downside move 30th May 2022 till 27th Jun 2022. Looks like the play is along these technicals, bearing in mind past couple of weeks was continued outflow of foreign funds. When they return... probably onward to 13.65 the very least. For near term moves, looking to accumulate at 9.25/8.99.

The US FED is still hawkish; US inflation is sticky; labour numbers stubborn. Weighs down Asian markets somewhat.

Posted by cwc1981 > 2023-02-23 15:30 | Report Abuse

The current government committed to reduce debts and subsidy for the riches so should have good development for TNB

Posted by speakup > 2023-02-23 15:52 | Report Abuse

besok 20sen dividend mali

Posted by kevinobc > 2023-02-23 22:35 | Report Abuse

https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2023/02/882826/review-electricity-subsidy-t20

Posted by cwc1981 > 2023-02-24 21:29 | Report Abuse

With EV coming. Utilities companies will share the pie with Petro companies. No worries

Posted by TreeTopView > 2023-02-25 11:48 | Report Abuse

Below is a copy and paste of the post I made on the 13th February of the Fib. points.
I'm reposting them as I believe they are still relevant and currently in play.

Current Fib. points.
To the upside:
9.62
9.68
9.72
9.77
9.91
10.05

To the downside, retracement points:
9.62
9.53
9.44

If you look at the above price points you will see how relevant they actually are (to date) when you look back at the daily prices of Tenaga since the date of posting, Feb.13. If I was to add two more price points to the above Fib prices, they would be 10.15 and 10.29 if the price was to continue to move upwards.

Let's see what the quarterly delivers on either Monday or Tuesday and whether Tenaga can make a formidable attack on RM10 to move forward.

My current sentiment is positive and remain mildly hawkish that this will move forward. Having said that, the quarterly may make a fool of me and be lacklustre and poorly accepted....lol.

Anyway, let's see. All the best to holders.

Posted by KimSua > 2023-02-27 12:50 | Report Abuse

Expect quarterly revenue to be flat or lower compare to Q3 based on the net energy demand on TNB website. Just a rough comparison Q3 Vs Q4 , slight drop of ~10MWH daily demand especially in Dec 2022. But they will reduce operating costs by spinning less as the load factor remains the healthy. Anyway, i suspect if no extra taxation the PAT should improve slightly and also govt ICPT receivables payment should be healthy. IPP generation revenue of both YTL power and Malakoff turns out to be stellar. How will TNB fair? Eager to find out if ... Good luck fellow prospectors.

Posted by planta2 > 2023-02-27 13:04 | Report Abuse

If today can close green albeit +0.01sen, technical charts indicate tenaga will breach rm10 soon

Posted by Novice296 > 2023-02-27 15:16 | Report Abuse

when the dividend announcement launched, the price will go up. when the announcement will be?

Posted by TreeTopView > 2023-02-27 15:58 | Report Abuse

@Novice296,

The Ex Date and Payment Date will be announced in mid March, so in just over two weeks time.

The Ex Date will be late March.
The Payment Date will be the middle of April.

Posted by Deekay > 2023-02-27 17:42 | Report Abuse

Qtrly results out ....Dividend 26 sen..

Posted by cwc1981 > 2023-02-27 17:47 | Report Abuse

Yup. Not bad. Next quarter should have better earning with the increase of surcharge for commercial customer

Posted by speakup > 2023-02-27 21:08 | Report Abuse

expected dividend 20sen, but dapat 26sen! HEBAT!

Posted by RWG > 2023-02-27 21:35 | Report Abuse

coal price and gas price drop , good for tnb

Posted by speakup > 2023-02-27 21:40 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/02/27/tnb-posts-rm34bil-net-profit-for-fy22-declares-26-sen-dividend

Posted by KimSua > 2023-02-28 07:56 | Report Abuse

The only thing troubling me is the receivables increase from 22.8 Bil from 10.5 bil in 2021. I don't see the paid receivables in the cash flow. Current assets balloon from 27Bil to 45 bil in2022. The total equity of 61 bil looks promising but receivables is still annoying. Have the ICPT being paid up as earlier agreed, i am not very sure as not really visible at the moment. Have to wait for the professional to dig this.

Posted by KimSua > 2023-02-28 08:11 | Report Abuse

btw, how did the revenue drop so much qtr to qtr? As I only see a ~3% drop on the electricity demand qtr to qtr. It looks like we were in lock down in Q4 :(

Posted by TreeTopView > 2023-02-28 09:34 | Report Abuse

Hi KimSua, I can understand your confusion over the top line numbers, as I was in the same position last night. I decided to dig deeper into the quarterly (BIG mistake), eventually going round in circles looking for definitive answers.

I got there in the end but it was a headf*ck tryinf to balance up numbers. There is no point in me trying to explain most of the numbers, as it will just add to the confusion. What I'll do is lift some quotes from the quarterly that address your queries.

"Performance of the current quarter (4th Quarter FY2022) against the preceding quarter (3rd
Quarter FY2022):
The Group reported lower profit after taxation of RM807.9 million in the current quarter as
compared to RM972.7 million in the preceding quarter, a reduction of RM164.8 million. This was
mainly due to higher operating expenses recognised in the current quarter under review."

My note: Revenue is actually marginally higher than the previous quarter. The big variance you mention is in regards to how the ICPT is reported. In the previous quarter the ICPT was included in the total revenue figure of Rm19.071 B, whereas in the current quarterly it's reported as Revenue Rm12.915 B with a separate line entry for ICPT of Rm6.397B.

Re another query you had........

"TNB has fully recovered RM5.8 billion from the Government as at the end of the financial year for
the 1H 2022 ICPT. However, the continued high fuel prices in 2H 2022 has resulted in TNB carrying
higher receivables and borrowings balances. The recovery of the receivables will be subjected to
the next ICPT cycle, in which the Government has agreed to fund the rebate and the surcharge
amounting to RM10.8 billion."

Posted by TreeTopView > 2023-02-28 09:40 | Report Abuse

For me, the result was not what I was hoping for this quarter. I expected a higher net profit but ICPT, extra interest payments and various tax payments have softened the end results.

The dividend is higher than I thought, around 4 cents more than my expectations.

In a word, lacklustre, but certainly not fatal.

Posted by TreeTopView > 2023-02-28 09:43 | Report Abuse

As for the technical, the 9.62 resistance/support seems to have now been blown out of the water.

A new cycle begins :)

Posted by KimSua > 2023-02-28 09:51 | Report Abuse

Thanks TTV. The market is punishing the stock base on this quarterly. They need clarify the accounting principles to the investors. By right receivables paid should part of the credit to the accounts receivable and no impact to revenue

Posted by TreeTopView > 2023-02-28 10:02 | Report Abuse

As I said buddy, it was a total headf*ck going through the report but once I started I couldn't stop. Perhaps I should have had a bottle of wine next to me as I tried to work it out !!...lol

Many will just look at the bottom line and EPS and decide that it was a poor quarterly. For me, there are just too many moving parts to say definitively that it's a fail. The ICPT payment deliveries with related interest costs and Prosperity Tax really cloud their actual performance, imo.

Anyway, let's see if it can bounce off that 9.44 Fib point, at least for the short term.

Posted by M55555 > 2023-02-28 10:07 | Report Abuse

If want to keep 2 to 3 years , going down is good wat..... best is going below 9 again and collect more to average down more

Posted by TreeTopView > 2023-02-28 10:13 | Report Abuse

No thanks, M55555......we have already been through that cycle and I'm not keen on going back there :)

Posted by KimSua > 2023-02-28 12:33 | Report Abuse

All in all the major IB analyst are not bashing the stock. To me just retailers are selling and a correction before it move ups further. This quarter does not define the long term prospects of TNB. Good news is no more cukai makmur, no more EPF 3.0 withdrawal, coal price continue to reduce, ICPT payments seems more predictable. It seems dividend is irrelevant at this point of time.

Posted by Deekay > 2023-02-28 12:34 | Report Abuse

Thanks for insights, TTV & Kimsua

Posted by TreeTopView > 2023-02-28 15:24 | Report Abuse

Analysts see TNB’s receivables at peak, recommend ‘buy’ on improving cash flow.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/node/657121

Posted by planta2 > 2023-02-28 17:08 | Report Abuse

Wow drop 27sen. Should have run at rm10. Haiyaa

Posted by prudentinvestor > 2023-02-28 20:09 | Report Abuse

Didn't perform as well as bank stocks. The recent bull run of Tenaga, from RM7.89 to RM10.00 in just 4 to 5 months is probably too much.

Posted by speakup > 2023-02-28 21:39 | Report Abuse

TP12

Posted by KimSua > 2023-03-01 10:29 | Report Abuse

Shorts are active again, since yesterday not much ~50K shares were shorted, today will continue now at 0.17% net short position. How low will it go until the dividend ex date. Usually they will need to cover the shorts to prevent the 0.26 div payment unless it is too lucrative to short it down further. Longer wait :(

Posted by Deekay > 2023-03-01 10:37 | Report Abuse

Shorts having their field day again huh...

Posted by speakup > 2023-03-01 22:22 | Report Abuse

dropped so much despite giving out big dividend

Posted by snowball2000 > 2023-03-02 12:36 | Report Abuse

rightly so, i guessed. receivables at all time high. while some analysts opined that this has peaked, is the recoverability assured?

Posted by TreeTopView > 2023-03-02 13:56 | Report Abuse

Yes, as stated by the Ministry and Tenaga Execs..