Posted by member41 > 2013-07-12 09:10 | Report Abuse

sorry i saw wrongly is the pre opening q.. now 1.75

Posted by hng33 > 2013-07-12 10:03 | Report Abuse

Hold on and wait for EGM to be call and KHSB divestment and special dividend of 26.6sen to be approved

Posted by hng33 > 2013-07-12 10:18 | Report Abuse

KPS share in the short term is affected by Director ESOS issue at RM 1.00. These director is taking advantage to quick sell their ESOS to market for windfall profit. Their corporate spirit is in doubt. Nonetheless, the ESOS is going to expire by end of these month. All the selling from ESOS should be absorb and end by then

Posted by member41 > 2013-07-12 10:22 | Report Abuse

Wow director sold at 1.91... nice profit

Posted by iafx > 2013-07-12 10:24 | Report Abuse

ya kah? since u (otb?) believe directors r going to continuously dump kps shares massively, why still ask ppl to hold on and wait?! to pay the directors is it? hahahaa... when need to hold u sell, when need to sell u hold, buta lah! :D

Posted by member41 > 2013-07-12 10:28 | Report Abuse

hng buy back already?

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-07-12 10:31 | Report Abuse

The difference between 1.72 and 1.60 is small. I will not buy at 1.9, but I am interested if it is at 1.60.

Thank you.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-07-12 10:38 | Report Abuse

I do my homework, I will not simply comment without any fact. I keep on discourage people to buy at high price.

Posted by fzank > 2013-07-12 10:51 | Report Abuse

mr ooi, it's very difficult to wait for low price .... i didn't give a thought & just wallop at 1.72 just now (someone sold to me) ... every 5 cents down i will wallop again ....

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-07-12 11:02 | Report Abuse

Dear valued members,

It is not a recommendation to buy, I just want to show the Intrinsic value of this stock (KPS). This analysis was done when the price was at 1.94.

Special note :
This analysis is not taken into consideration the information given by hng33, I agreed with hng33, the value should be higher until the dust settled.

KPS IV Calculation

Total Net Profit Years 9/10

Total Positive Operating Cash flow Years 6/10

Total Dividend Payout Years 10/10

Total Positive free Cash flow Year 4/10
29/40
Growth%
10 Years Average Turn Over 343973
Latest 4 quarters 336852 -2.07%

10 Years Average Net Profit 29177
Latest 4 quarters 61359 110.30%

2011 2012 2013 Growth%
EPS 9.74 12.38 12.86 3.88%
PER 19.92 15.67 15.09 3.73%
ROE 4.35 5.19 4.71 -9.25%
NTA 2.28 2.38 2.43 2.10%
D'dend 2 2 0

2011 2012 2013
Net Profit 46440 59028 61359
Total equity 1068415 1137313 1303313
ROE 4.35% 5.19% 4.71%

Price CAGR % (Buy and Hold)
Average Return History 0.76%
3 yrs Return 13.41%

Method 1
EPS 0.13
g 6.50
Y 7.0
IV= (EPS*(8.5+1.5g)*4.4)/Y 1.48
Current price 1.94
Margin of Safety -31.51%
Potential gain -23.96%

Method 2
Discounted Cash Flows Calculator
Discount rate 12.00%
EPS 0.13
Earning expected to grow (annually) 6.5
for the next (? Years) 3.0
before leveling off to an annual growth 3.00
Calculate Stock Value per share 1.63
Current price 1.94
Margin of Safety -19.02%
Potential gain -15.98%

Method 3
ROE 4.71%
Rr 8.00%
NTA 2.43
IV= ROE/ Rr*NTA 1.43
Current Price 1.94
Margin of Safety -35.60%
Potential gain -26.25%

Method 4
(22.5*EPS*Book value per share)^0.5
EPS 0.13
Total equity 1303313
Number of shares 477000
(22.5*EPS*Total Equity/share)^0.5 2.81
Current price 1.94
Margin of Safety 31.00%
Potential gain 44.94%

The price ranges from 1.43 to 2.81.
Technical support is 1.55

I will be interested if the price is around 1.60, preferably 1.56.

Thank you.
Ooi

Posted by iafx > 2013-07-12 11:12 | Report Abuse

otb = hng33 = kcchongnz = kcloh? hahahaa...

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-12 13:05 | Report Abuse

Posted by iafx > Jul 12, 2013 11:12 AM | Report Abuse
otb = hng33 = kcchongnz = kcloh? hahahaa...

otb is an expert chartist. Nowadays he has written some valuation posts. hng33 has specialist knowledge in companies with potential corporate moves and high dividend companies. KCLoh is an experienced and knowledgeable trader and investor, also with a lot of feel of the market, like the others. They are all good in their fields. That is what I have gathered through i3.

Me, I am a fundamental retail investor, besides a call warrant punter, if you base on what i have been writing about so far. I know nothing of technical analysis (maybe a little lah). Neither I have any market information like hng33 and KC Loh have.

If all of them are of the same person, that would be a good combination.

What about you? What kind of investor are you? Since you have been very critical of at least two of the above.

Oh yeah, btw, have you collected evidence of me copy and paste, bullshitting, pusing etc so far? I am sure you can find some, can't you since I have posted scores of postings?

I am still waiting!

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-07-12 13:13 | Report Abuse

iafx, how did you come to the conclusion i am otb=kcchongnz=hg33?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-12 13:16 | Report Abuse

That shows his analytical skill

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-07-12 13:22 | Report Abuse

LOL

Posted by hng33 > 2013-07-12 13:23 | Report Abuse

Ooi Teik Bee

For your information, although the 56.6% stake sale in KHSB is for 193.467m (76sen), but the actual net proceed form disposal is much higher after taking account write back provision. It has been classified held for sale assets and liabilities in KPS last Q1 balance sheet. Lets me update to you now:

Total assets classified held for sale: RM 850.548m
Total liabilities classified held for sale: RM 523.774m

(remark: The figure is base on offer price at 76sen)

Expected net gain to be recognized:
Net gain from disposal of KHSB: RM 326.774m (additional gain of RM 19.347m to 346.121m based on revise offer price to 83.6sen)

No of share: 477m
Net gain per share: 68.5sen (offer price at 83.6sen: 72.6sen)
NTA: increase from RM 2.43 to RM 3.16

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-07-12 13:42 | Report Abuse

Thank you. hng33. I buy your information. You are great.

Posted by iafx > 2013-07-12 14:22 | Report Abuse

wow... family gathering, hahahaa...

Posted by moneyking96 > 2013-07-12 14:35 | Report Abuse

y keep dropping

Posted by hng33 > 2013-07-12 14:44 | Report Abuse

Selling from ESOS share by KPS director will keep price on weakness now. However, once the ESOS share is over, KPS share will be more stabilize.

All ESOS share must be exercise before the expire by end of these month

Posted by limitup5053 > 2013-07-12 14:48 | Report Abuse

why are the directors selling the shares ?...WHY ?...

Posted by FreeThink > 2013-07-12 14:52 | Report Abuse

free money for sleeping partners...

Posted by hng33 > 2013-07-12 14:58 | Report Abuse

These director are appointed, they are not a shareholder of KPS. However, as a director, they are entitle to ESOS offer by company at RM 1.00. With the expiry date on 31 July 2013, they must all exercise their right to subscribe ESOS now and sell back to market for quick wondfall profit.

Posted by iafx > 2013-07-12 15:10 | Report Abuse

don't touch puncak, kps, jaks, yli, engtex, especially derived WA, until new development arise

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-12 15:27 | Report Abuse

Posted by iafx > Jul 12, 2013 11:12 AM | Report Abuse
otb = hng33 = kcchongnz = kcloh? hahahaa...

Posted by iafx > Jul 12, 2013 02:22 PM | Report Abuse
wow... family gathering, hahahaa...

Posted by iafx > Jul 12, 2013 03:10 PM | Report Abuse
don't touch puncak, kps, jaks, yli, engtex, especially derived WA, until new development arise


With this kind of analytical skill, I don't think it is advisable to follow this guy's advice.

Btw, what the hell is "derived WA"?

Posted by iafx > 2013-07-12 15:32 | Report Abuse

whenever si-tipu-roti-canai start to "punt" a counter with wonderful cerita, making formula here and there, that counter is sure to drop. now kps $1.66... tks to this taufu-fa again

don't believe? juz briefly follow his bogus posting and c for yourself. hahahaaa... can't even get the roe def correct, yet so shameless

time will tell, when market goes down all these taufu will disappear :D

Posted by gordan85 > 2013-07-12 15:57 | Report Abuse

so great if they are same person, in this forum i only learn from ooi, kcchongnz, kcloh and sephiroth, lol. if u guys are same person, pls use 1 id, ezier for me to read

Posted by smartly > 2013-07-12 16:00 | Report Abuse

LOL !!!!

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-12 16:13 | Report Abuse

Posted by iafx > Jul 12, 2013 03:32 PM | Report Abuse
whenever si-tipu-roti-canai start to "punt" a counter with wonderful cerita, making formula here and there, that counter is sure to drop. now kps $1.66... tks to this taufu-fa again
don't believe? juz briefly follow his bogus posting and c for yourself. hahahaaa... can't even get the roe def correct, yet so shameless
time will tell, when market goes down all these taufu will disappear :D

Ooooi hng33, where are you (not me)? KPS down you (not me) disappear ah (oop, i am here)?

You (not me)made that ifax fellow lose money oh and he got angry fight already. But I (I mean kcchong, not hng here) made lah. When I (not hng33)read your (not mine) initial recommendation, kps was less than 1.55. So if I (not hng33) sell now at 1.66, i (not hng33) still make a lot oh. Thank you (not me) thank you (not me).

Posted by gordan85 > 2013-07-12 16:18 | Report Abuse

haha, kcc u r funny, please use 1 id, easier for us^^

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-12 16:28 | Report Abuse

Posted by gordan85 > Jul 12, 2013 03:57 PM | Report Abuse
so great if they are same person, in this forum i only learn from ooi, kcchongnz, kcloh and sephiroth, lol. if u guys are same person, pls use 1 id, ezier for me to read

So gordan85 you have really learned from me (not us) ah? You saw me (not us)disappear anywhere or not when kps is down? People call me (not us) taufu, si-roti canai, bogus and shameless postings woh. Still want to read my (not ours) postings ah?

Posted by hng33 > 2013-07-12 16:28 | Report Abuse

Please respect other opinion. There is no obligation at all to recommend any stock here to make money. I'm only here to share my thought and hopeful to exchange with like minded investor here.

Posted by gordan85 > 2013-07-12 16:37 | Report Abuse

kcchongz, seriously only read u guys comment. learned from others doesnt mean need to follow their step to buy or sell, buy at own risk la, haha. if u have 4 id then u are really superman 36hrs in a day infront of pc

Posted by gordan85 > 2013-07-12 16:42 | Report Abuse

of course will continue to read u,ooi and seph,kcloh posting, if u guys dun mind to share more

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-12 16:43 | Report Abuse

gordan85, luckily I have readers like you. All of my readers are like you, except one, who is not actually a reader, but read my comments secretly and see if there is anything to attack or not.

I believe I got a lot of mistakes here and there. After all I am only human. But you know what, even there are mistakes, he can't spot any because he knows nothing about finance and investment. It is ok not to know because we all have different background. But attacking others with degrading terms but own-self knows nuts? May tahan.

Posted by hng33 > 2013-07-12 16:52 | Report Abuse

With so many information around, if we can together take initiative to digest and put effort together, we can minimize stock market risk

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-07-12 16:57 | Report Abuse

it takes a lot of time and effort to do research and post the information here.... much of the information shared by ooi tb, kc loh kcchong and hng33 are very useful and much appreciated and I ve learnt a lot since joining this forum.... entry and exit price is solely own decision..

Posted by iafx > 2013-07-12 17:08 | Report Abuse

"otb = hng33 = kcchongnz = kcloh?" this sentence has nothing to do with "it takes a lot of time and effort to do research and post the information here". it is what it is, it's not so be it, what's the fuzz here? hahahaaa...

notice only the si-tipu-roti-canai who can't wait to explain herself above, as usual

hng33 post a fact, kps share deep dived is also a fact. hold & wait? first time see a share dive is it? hahahaa... patient, this state gov company will have a long way to go, sure there will be a next time, hopefully before raya

enjoy your weekend!

Posted by hng33 > 2013-07-12 17:12 | Report Abuse

High return = high risk
High return = (high risk - knowledge) = calculated risk

Posted by iafx > 2013-07-12 17:18 | Report Abuse

that's merely halfway only, calculated risk -> risk response plan -> trade plan!

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-12 17:26 | Report Abuse

hng33, I could understand your statements very well. but the other fellow's statement, eh, make me one head full of dew water.

Can elaborate ah?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-12 17:32 | Report Abuse

Posted by iafx > Jul 12, 2013 05:08 PM | Report Abuse
"otb = hng33 = kcchongnz = kcloh?" this sentence has nothing to do with "it takes a lot of time and effort to do research and post the information here". it is what it is, it's not so be it, what's the fuzz here? hahahaaa...
notice only the si-tipu-roti-canai who can't wait to explain herself above, as usual

First of all, it really shows your analytical skill (or totally lack of it) to come out with that conclusion.

What fuzz? No fuzz! I am so honoured to be implied that I have the skill and knowledge of hng33, OTB and KCLoh. Like what gordan85 said I am a superman man!

Again anybody else consider me as si-tipu-roti-canai? And also I told you again and again, I got kukuchiu one, I am not a "her", ok? Not everybody is like you!

Posted by hng33 > 2013-07-12 17:33 | Report Abuse

While trading plan can be trade daily, weekly, monthly depend on individual risk profile. So long we have investment plan and target price, we just need to accord to the plan and of course subject to change depending on new development.

Sometime do nothing is better than too responsive. Buy and hold is also a strategy if the expected development still ongoing like water restructuring. Since both Fed and state gov are eager to resolve the outstanding water issue as soon as possible, adopting buy and hold strategy is my preference option now.

Posted by hng33 > 2013-07-12 17:56 | Report Abuse

There is urgency now to resolve Langat2 water plant. It involve transfer of raw water from Pahang to Selangor through tunnel and multibillion already spent to build facility in Pahang portion. With 80% completion of it, it must start its Selangor portion as soon as possible to connect the tunnel.

State gov wish is to gather all water treatment plant under its umbrella, including these langat 2 together with exiting plant under Splash + Puncak Niaga + Abbass. These upstream will then will consolidate with downstream operator (Syabas) in order to streamline the whole water distribution.

Whereas, Fed gov wanna to separate the deal and emphasize just on langat 2 construction.

The final deal could be, Fed gov and state gov reach compromised agreement whereby, Feb opt its golden share in Syabas to force Puncak divest its stake in Syabas to KDEB in exchange for State gov grant land development order to build langat 2.

If you check Puncak last Q1 result, syabas only contribute less than RM 5m profit before tax or <4% to the Puncak earning. The major contribution is its wholly own subsidiary Puncak Niaga that operate 2 water treatment plant in SSP2 and wangsa Maju. If puncak opt to divest Syabas but retain Puncak niaga, there will be very minimum on its earning and easily recoup back by increase contribution from its oil and gas business.

These is compromised solution as the major issue is due to Syabas, the downstream distributor not the upstream water treatment plant.

KDEB can at least solve the partial issue by consolidate the these Syabas, the downstream water distributor and half of the upstream operator, the water treatment plant (Abbass + splash), and allowing other to continue (Puncak Niaga + langat 2)

Posted by andyhard > 2013-07-12 18:15 | Report Abuse

Ooi Teik Bee

For your information, although the 56.6% stake sale in KHSB is for 193.467m (76sen), but the actual net proceed form disposal is much higher after taking account write back provision. It has been classified held for sale assets and liabilities in KPS last Q1 balance sheet. Lets me update to you now:

Total assets classified held for sale: RM 850.548m
Total liabilities classified held for sale: RM 523.774m

(remark: The figure is base on offer price at 76sen)

Expected net gain to be recognized:
Net gain from disposal of KHSB: RM 326.774m (additional gain of RM 19.347m to 346.121m based on revise offer price to 83.6sen)

No of share: 477m
Net gain per share: 68.5sen (offer price at 83.6sen: 72.6sen)
NTA: increase from RM 2.43 to RM 3.16


Hi hng33,

I just wonder the net gain is the difference assets held for sale and liabilities held for sales? Isn't the net gain should be Selling price- initial investment?

Posted by hng33 > 2013-07-12 18:31 | Report Abuse

The net gain will higher in KPS balance sheet as KPS can write back previous provision from KHSB which have been consolidate previously in KPS balance sheet. This is because KHSB is 56.6% subsidiary of KPS.

Posted by andyhard > 2013-07-12 18:37 | Report Abuse

Okie, you are saying under the liabilites held for sales..some of the provions last time can now be written back as the liaibilites is also sell to KDEB?

Posted by Greenpower > 2013-07-12 18:54 | Report Abuse

Hi, kps, now so many complain. Pls do some explanation
.tq

Posted by nightrader > 2013-07-12 21:49 | Report Abuse

does all this deal making depend on political will of Fed and State gov
since they each have desire to do something abt water problem in Selangor What if this deal collapse bcos politics get too rough? Risky deal?

Posted by 9696 > 2013-07-13 09:55 | Report Abuse

How come keep dropping frm 192