Can I ask something as I am not well versed in CBIP or Plantation area...
1) What is the PBIT contribution breakdown for CBIP such as plantation, oil mills sales, repair and maintenance service, others.
2) Does CBIP rely on CPO trading in their PBIT? Will the previous profit sustain in coming quarters?
3) I understand you mention "oil mill must buy modipalm" always. Could you please enlighten me by using the modipalm what is the unit processing cost per tonne of CPO production? Is it the most lowest compare to other technology supplier?
4) How do you value the profit margin from modipalm sales?
5) What make you think CBIP will unleash again? New oil mill contracts from Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Africa????
don't see the growth of profit is minimal. actually dig into the notes to income statement. Very impressive. the plantation land with almost planted area of 10,000 HA almost break even and soon profitable and its 30% associates also plantation company also showing quite impressive growth probably due to age of the trees (turning into maturity)
No growth prospect. The earnings has peaked for this counter. Unless cbip sees a big drop in earnings, there is no way to earn much from this counter. We are looking for a turn around play in this kind of mature company
1) Revenue up. Profit up. NTA also increased. All round positives.
2) Cash position remain positive in relation to its debts.
3) Growth from 14,500 acres of young and now maturing Oil Palm trees in Indonesia has accelerated.
Rm2.118 millions for 3 months revenue ended March 31st 2017 Rm3.981 millions for 3 months revenue ended June 30th 2017
So there is a huge jump of 88% in revenue growth from last quarter. This shows the fast increasing growth of the now maturing Oil Palm trees.
FANTASTIC & POSITIVE GROWTH RATE!!
4) Selling of some investments to Cash out. CBIP has investments in Indonesia which are being cashed out.
5) Good progress and profits from special vehicles job done
"The revenue and profit before taxation of the special purpose vehicles segment increased by 125% and 201% respectively as compared to the last financial period. The increases were mainly due to higher projects implementation and completion in the current quarter resulting from the substantial projects order-book brought forward from the last financial year."
6) 24 April 2017 - CBIP ventured into a New Growth Zone of Central America. IMMENSE POTENTIAL FOR MODIPALM SALES.
"ii) On 24 April 2017, CB Industrial Product Sdn. Bhd. (“CBIPSB”), a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company incorporated a new subsidiary in Republic of Guatemala, Modipalma Latin America, Sociedad Anonima (Modipalma”). CBIPSB subscribed 548 shares of DTQ100 each for a total consideration of GTQ54,800 (equivalent to RM32,272), representing 99.6% of the issued and paid-up capital of Modipalma. For further details, please refer to our announcements to Bursa Securities on 4 May 2017."
7) SEEING GREAT FUTURE VALUE INSIDERS ARE LOADING UP MORE CBIP SHARES
Think longer term and look further into the future.
Steel prices up or down does not matter longer term as Modipalm is a Monopoly. Pricing power is found in monopoly like Milo, Water Utility & Toll Roads. So is the Fully Automatic Modipalm.
Just raise prices in tandem with steel price rise as there is no competitor anywhere nearby for the next 5 years.
Dolphin a competitor? Forget it. Dolphin will go bankrupt like Hubline.
So any price weakness just follow Insiders & load up.
I am attracted to this stock for the EPS. Stocks with this sort of price and EPS have given me profit before. While the past is not conclusive, the fundamentals make me want to invest in this stock.
1) Assuming there will be 4*3 sen dividend ex-dated before expiry of WA, and divide it by the duration from now to expiry, to get the Dividend Yield.
2) Historical Volatility of 10.7%, for the last 90 trading days.
3) Risk Free Interest Rate of 6%, take note that in calculation of WA fair value, it is assuming the return of mother share is equal to this Risk Free Interest Rate.
With the above input, WA fair value is 3.4 sen, only about 10% of the market price of 34.5 sen.
How come the fair value of WA is so much lower than its market price?
Why people want to buy WA at a market price of 10 time higher of its fair value?
Are these people idiot?
No, no, no, they are not idiots.
Just that they have high confidence in CBIP's future performance.
What we can do is, trial and error the Risk Free Interest Rate until the fair value become equal to market price of 34.5 sen.
What I get is, Risk Free Interest Rate of 21.5% will make the fair value become 34.5 sen.
Wow, annual return of 21.5%!
With this result of calculation, I bought some CBIP this morning.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
yfchong
5,743 posts
Posted by yfchong > 2017-08-09 19:07 | Report Abuse
tempting after 12 aug....