Comparison of quarter ending Dec 22 versus Dec 19 (which is the "normal" just before pandemic): Revenue: RM175m now, RM385m then (only 45% of "normal") Operating loss of RM100m now, operating profit of RM47m then
Compare against Kossan, which also released results today, at least Kossan is making a small operating profit.
The only bright spot for Supermax is the RM2.5 billion net cash could sustain bleeding for many years to come, assuming that it doesn't squander the money in its US dream.
There lies the problem for glove industries. All big players except Top Glove have ample cash. Intco Medical in China has even more cash. If they don't actively trim capacity, and just one of them harbours the dream to win market share, the price war could go on for a long time!
topglove boss went kuku with the sudden windfall. crazy dividends and share buybacks... he still thinks TG will be profitable in a few quarters... i think this is a long long battle as most glove companies are cash rich, can fight till last man standing. TG... TG naked now.
Many here been telling not to collect after 2020, but still got naive people who refused to listen and call buy. Now this "impressive" QR will let you jaw drop even more. Be prepared to stuck forever.
Breaking news: Supermx key stakeholder potentially proposed to acquire one of the profitable Electronic Vehicle (EV) company from excess internal funds.
Breaking news: Supermax to close down some cost inefficient plants and relocate to more efficient automated production plant to improve the bottom line cost performance. Analyst expected with this cost reduction activity, Supermax expected able to cushion the rising cost impact and low ASP. Analyst expected likely with this exercise, Supermax able to reach break even performance.
Breaking news: Earnings adjustments. We forecast an FY23F core loss of MYR120m from a profit of MYR33m to account for lower effective capacity, lower utilisation rates, and a weaker USD. SELL with higher MYR0.62 TP after tweaking our DCF assumptions. Our TP implies 0.3x FY24F P/B, against its pre-COVID-19 historical mean of 1.6x. We think SUCB’s previous aggressive expansion plans and OBM business model (typically carries high fixed costs) could be detrimental to its efforts to streamline its cost. Key risks: Higher-than-expected sales volumes, stronger- than-expected USD/ MYR, and lower-than-expected raw material prices.
KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 9): The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has modified the withhold release order (WRO) against imports of synthetic disposable gloves manufactured by YTY Group....
The agency announced on Wednesday (Feb 8) that shipments from YTY Group, which had been banned since a year ago due to forced labour allegations, will be allowed to enter the US effective immediately.
“Since the implementation of the WRO, YTY Group has taken numerous actions to remediate forced labour indicators within its manufacturing process and employee housing facilities,” the CBP said in a statement.
Ukraine war live updates: Putin suspends nuclear arms treaty with U.S.; hits out at oligarch traitors Karen Gilchrist This is CNBC’s live blog tracking developments on the war in Ukraine. See below for the latest updates.
Once again, if you refer back the history, you may know if this counter worth to buy or not. For me, as simple as ABC, the management has never been proactive in handling certain issue is already a big mistake. And more to come too.
Breaking news: Local institutions funds continue short Supermx with the expectation Supermx will not able to recover the business within this year due to prolonged low ASP
Supermax ODM can sub the gloves manufacturing to China companies to produce the gloves for them under their brand name bc of lower cost. The cost saving from manufacturing are able to provide more competitive price to the Europe and US market.
Management shall do something already in view of this.
In fact, supermax had already sub glove manufacturing to Blue sail china, Intco, to produce nitrile gloves for them under aurelia brand. Blue sail china. export data. 73996 AURELIA BOLD NITRILE PF 5MIL FULL TEXTU RE BLACK S 73997 AURELIA BOLD NITRILE PF 5MIL FULL TEXTURE BLACK M
Make Gloves Great Again: Look Forward Many are asking - why glove stocks are running after reporting huge losses. Simple, because stock market looks forward, not backwards, not even at the present. Usually, most take a 12-month view. Remember Mar-Apr 2020? Many stocks tumbled 50-70% as funds panicked and rushed to sell out holdings, especially tech stocks. On the other hand, retailers believed that although earnings outlook for stocks might be very bad for the next few quarters, but share price has fallen too much. They believed if they invest and hold their nose for 12 months, the outlook will eventually improve, and they could potentially make more than 100%. So they took the bold decision to start buying the stocks way before the stocks turn profitable. Sounds familiar? Let's examine if this is a déjà vu for gloves below:
ASP finally started rising - the one signal the whole market had been waiting for a long time, and now it's here. Harta raised ASP this Feb. Topg has followed suit, and will be raising again in April. Even Chinese players like Intco also said they will start raising in 2Q-3Q this year.
Customers' destocking will end in a few months' time (according to glovemakers), and inventory will go back to normalised level - so no more excess inventory. Once that happens, customers will have to start restocking again. One of the signs was, glove tenders from government and NGOs have stopped for 1.5 years, and recently, Topg saw the tenders coming back from UK, and rising enquiries from other countries. So, if we look forward, glovemakers' utilisation rate/volume could improve.
No more oversupply. All small glovemakers like Mah Sing, Salcon and many Chinese players have exited the market. Semperit also sold its glove business. Not to mention major players like Topg, Intco and Harta have all aborted expansion plans, and in fact, halted a big chunk of their existing capacities.
Costs will likely peak in 1H 2023, and could improve in 2H 2023, because natural gas prices (needed for production) will likely fall in coming months as oil prices have fallen almost 50% from last year's peak. Besides, the worst impact from electricity tariff hike will be effected in 1H 2023. Anwar said "we will only increase tariff for big companies that earn billions of profits". Are glovemakers making billions of profits now? Obviously not. So I believe electricity rates will not rise further for glovemakers in 2H 2023. So, if we look forward, costs could improve.
So how now brown cow? Yes, admittedly things are still not rosy yet right now, but if ASP climbs, volume picks up and cost improves later, doesn't that indicate the worst losses could be over by Mar or Jun 2023 quarter, and things could improve thereafter? So if we look forward and take a 12-month view, can we make more than 100% from gloves this time? I'm not sure, but pre-pandemic, Harta for instance was trading at RM5-7, now it's below RM2. Btw, TOPG, the leader of glove, has just seen MA200 breakout the first time after 2 years.
F China supply. Some may argue, China may spoil market, like steel last time. Consider this difference: more than 50% of steel supply comes from China, whereas only around 20% of glove supply comes from China while Malaysia has 60% market share. So who's the price determinant over the long term? Don't forget, some of their supplies need to go to their own domestic consumption. More importantly, consider ESG - Europe wants to phase out CPO due to ESG issues, and US banned Topg previously due to foreign worker treatment (but lifted it after Topg improved their treatment and resolved it). So what makes u think that these countries would wanna buy from China, which uses environment-killing coal? Not to mention the US-China trade tension now. Why would they prefer Chinese gloves, if glove purchases constitute such a tiny % of hospitals' expenditure? FYI, Europe and US buy 55-60% of gloves produced globally.
To both groups who have bought and have not bought - good luck.
Last time when glove companies was still making billion profit, the share price drop like shit. These investors foresee the profit and revenue dropped in next 2 years due to oversupply. Now that 2 years had passed, the same investors foresee that the revenue and profit will back in next 2 years so the share price goes up.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
pang72
47,403 posts
Posted by pang72 > 2023-02-16 18:49 | Report Abuse
QR - 4c
How come insider didn't sell but up today?