Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-03-08 15:49 | Report Abuse

dun worry myongcc5... my valuation was conservative...

if u calculate like what most investors like to do (using PE)...

annualize 2 latest Q to full year... 24.23sen x 2 = 48.46 sen EPS... just apply PE 10.. it is worth RM 4.85

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-03-08 16:03 | Report Abuse

myongcc5... another share with good EV/EBIT and ROIC is Prlexus... somemore they are expanding (which is what most investors like, haha)

see by end of this year or early 2018.. i think Prlexus price will shoot up..

this share has not gone up much yet.. my average price around RM1.40... but have bought enough for a big portion % of my total share value... now waiting for it to go up.... i wont add more even though now the price is still low... i need to diversify my portfolio not to concentrate too much on one share

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-03-08 16:03 | Report Abuse

if you are interested.. can study Prlexus urself...

Dun trust me yet.. haha

Posted by 8u29song > 2017-03-08 16:11 | Report Abuse

why not..

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-03-08 16:17 | Report Abuse

yes, Magni also good... i did a comparison before.. equally good for both... Magni slightly higher Dividend yield.. but other ratios almost the same...

but imagine urself.. from RM5.00 to RM10.00 easier or from RM1.40 to RM2.80 easier?

Posted by Alex Lim Jun Xiong > 2017-03-08 16:31 | Report Abuse

Icon8888, what is ur tp for this counter?

Posted by nocindycat > 2017-03-08 23:47 | Report Abuse

rm4

Posted by chankp7010 > 2017-03-09 09:53 | Report Abuse

Can "Success" continue its climb? It depends a lot on the Board of Directors. If only they decide to declare dividend at this juncture, then the climb will continue otherwise, it will be trading sideway till next QR

Posted by Contender > 2017-03-09 10:07 | Report Abuse

Running ahead of successful transformation .... overly successful. what is the catalyst for share price meteoric rise ?

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-03-10 14:45 | Report Abuse

as I mentioned earlier, this stock is worth at least RM4.29. Believe it or not... time will prove.. let's see :)

Posted by csan > 2017-03-12 02:15 | Report Abuse

got the target price at RM4.28. haha amazingly close.

Posted by RonnieKimLondon > 2017-03-12 11:27 | Report Abuse

Dear friends,

Success looks like a stock to buy. Is there any broker promoting Success?

I have not seen any. Strange.

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-03-13 13:29 | Report Abuse

u r right myongcc5.. i seldom trust analysts from any investment banks...
most of the time they are helping some tycoons to promote shares... but u can read as reference.. then analyze on ur own to decide.. no harm..

just like what i tell u.. dun trust me.. do ur own homework... ^^

Posted by ginvin > 2017-03-13 14:08 | Report Abuse

collect again @ $3.00

Posted by suregain > 2017-03-14 11:03 | Report Abuse

sold 2.99...thx

Posted by goody99 > 2017-03-15 08:49 | Report Abuse

undervalued at the moment. Just wait...

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-03-17 09:09 | Report Abuse

csan, how did you come up with yr TP of RM4.28?

Mind to share?

everyone has own way of calculating the intrinsic value. I have shown mine above.. would like to see how you got to yours...

Posted by goody99 > 2017-03-17 11:28 | Report Abuse

slowly slowly up towards the next QR is good enough

Posted by chankp7010 > 2017-03-20 09:34 | Report Abuse

Wow! Success is going to touch new height. Now at RM3.10 and soon RM3.50 after the 3QR is released.

Posted by csan > 2017-03-22 12:29 | Report Abuse

dolly_chai2, actually i looked into it in detail and counted again, the maximum TP is only RM3.23

Posted by csan > 2017-03-22 12:30 | Report Abuse

there were some one-off gains, also i notice the market values Success at a PE of 8.5x max. so maximum it can go is RM3.23

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-03-27 12:32 | Report Abuse

csan... not sure how you calculated that.. anyway, i will still keep to my calculation... it is ok, everyone has difference ways of calculating the intrinsic value...

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-03-27 12:33 | Report Abuse

just do not forget about one very clear sign: the process equipment section has turnaround from losses so this is a double boost for SUCCESS on top of the increasing sales of its lighting & transformer business

Posted by csan > 2017-03-27 21:42 | Report Abuse

dolly, u used 24.23sen as your EPS. you have to take out RM3.1 million from net profit due to impairment reversal(this income is definitely one off and not recurring).

also i would take out RM4 million in FOREX gains because i think ringgit will strengthen. the current actions of trump and what is happening in the US will most likely weaken USD.....or stronger MYR.

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-03-28 12:41 | Report Abuse

indeed very well said ragingharrypotato... all the points that you raised up are also the main reasons why i bought it last time...

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-03-28 12:43 | Report Abuse

i am actually using EV/EBIT multiple to calculate the intrinsic value of SUCCESS (instead of using PE) as it can reflect the debt/cash in a more accurate way:

Trailing 4 Q valuations:

Assume EV/EBIT = 10, EV wil be: RM 529960
Market Capitalization (MC) will be: RM 491038

Intrinsic Value RM 4.2933

and bear in mind that this valuation is very conservative.. as I took last 4 quarterly results (where the first 2 quarters are not so good... in Q6, they even made some loss due to process equipment division)....

If you annualized 2017 2 quarters... u will even see much higher valuation...

but again, i wanna play conservatively so i take last 4 quarters...

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-03-28 12:46 | Report Abuse

Note that:

Enterprise value = Market capitalization + long and short term debt + minority interest - cash & cash equivalents

Posted by ragingharrypotato > 2017-03-29 15:09 | Report Abuse

hrm wonder y my comments were deleted. did i say offend anybody?

Posted by suregain > 2017-03-30 14:49 | Report Abuse

so wats d conclusion? Fair value how much?

Posted by ragingharrypotato > 2017-03-31 10:39 | Report Abuse

Once upon a time, someone blogged that Success has poor cash flow and the profit was not as good as it seems so in order to dispel that rumour have a look at the financial position of Success:
Q42015: Net debt equals RM63 mil
Q42016: Net debt equals RM8 mil.

55 mil worth of debt was pared down over the course of a year. Once this company turns net cash, then i guess the EV/EBIT or EV/EBITDA valuation will deserve a rerating.

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-03-31 11:14 | Report Abuse

agree with what ragingharrypotato said...

SUCCESS financials have improved tremendously... that is also why i bought into it...

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-03-31 11:14 | Report Abuse

another reason of course is its improvement in revenue and profit...

Posted by ragingharrypotato > 2017-03-31 11:19 | Report Abuse

Quite confident that profit even netting off the 4 mil forex gains (on the assumption that we treat it as strictly once off, and with SEB contribution being muted and insignificant (for the sake of being conservative and with additional kicker if it performs), Success is primed to make very close to RM50 million a year PATAMI for FY17 (2 months away). At 10x PE (not unreasonable for a company doing close to 20% growth), Success should technically trade at RM4.28.

10x PE is again quite conservative as other LED stocks are trading at 12-15X PE. There's a theoretical upside of 40% but with additional kickers from recovery from SEB + PE expansion + outperformance of expectations.

Posted by ragingharrypotato > 2017-03-31 11:19 | Report Abuse

2 quarters away i mean

Posted by suregain > 2017-03-31 11:49 | Report Abuse

bought 3.03

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-03-31 12:23 | Report Abuse

well said ragingharrypotato...

Posted by suregain > 2017-03-31 14:37 | Report Abuse

go go go

Posted by ragingharrypotato > 2017-04-03 11:11 | Report Abuse

According to the edge weekly, Success is number 19 best performing stock YTD for 2017. Furthermore all LED associated counters are running like mad, while Success will be a slow turtle and continue to appreciate in value once people come to terms of their recovery of earnings and strong LED growth.

Posted by ragingharrypotato > 2017-04-03 12:06 | Report Abuse

TP: RM4.20

Posted by suregain > 2017-04-03 15:42 | Report Abuse

go go go

Posted by tecpower > 2017-04-03 18:30 | Report Abuse

This may be a multibagger stock!

Posted by samsambank > 2017-04-03 19:27 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/119664.jsp

Success ranks 19th.

Posted by suregain > 2017-04-04 11:38 | Report Abuse

just buy success

Posted by ragingharrypotato > 2017-04-04 16:11 | Report Abuse

One of the cheapest stock in Bursa right now!

Posted by ragingharrypotato > 2017-04-05 11:58 | Report Abuse

3.22?!!! Market finally wake up to this stock???!!!

Posted by suregain > 2017-04-05 13:31 | Report Abuse

go go go

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-04-05 14:43 | Report Abuse

wow.. seems like it has caught more attention today... well done SUCCESS... indeed an undervalued share.. glad that i had purchased it earlier...

Posted by Special4U > 2017-04-05 14:44 | Report Abuse

3.30 now

Posted by suregain > 2017-04-05 14:50 | Report Abuse

sangat garang!!!!! yahhooooo

Posted by suregain > 2017-04-05 16:28 | Report Abuse

yahhhhhhoooooooo