Posted by ragingharrypotato > 2017-05-31 15:05 | Report Abuse

Good good, continue hating on a solid company with cheap valuations. I love the hate. Cause mama told me, one man's thrash is another's treasure.

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-06-05 12:38 | Report Abuse

haha.. well said ragingharrypotato... if not bcoz of these haters.. how could we collect at good price?

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-06-05 12:40 | Report Abuse

EPS fluctuates from quarter to quarter... that we cant even predict.. but we should look at more solid fundamentals such as trailing ROIC & EV/EBIT (magic formula), CY, DCF model etc...

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-07-03 14:55 | Report Abuse

Some sharing on my latest calculation on the intrinsic value of SUCCESS:

Assumption: Q4 2017 is same as Q3 (which is a very conservative estimation as Q3 is the softest among the 3Qs in 2017).

Assume EV/EBIT = 10, EV wil be: RM701.910mil
Market Capitalization (MC) will be: RM663.065mil

Intrinsic Value based on EV/EBIT = RM5.7732

Assume PE = 12, Share price = RM4.763765542

Average (PE & IV) selling price = RM5.2685

I normally take the average of PE valution & EV/EBIT... this is my own method, of course there are other methods...

But a high level view shows that the share price should be around RM4.76 to RM5.77.

Let's take the average of RM5.27. Today's price = RM3.63
margin of safety = 45%

Other valuations (trailing 3Q 2017+ estimated Q4 2017 result):
EY = EBIT/EV = 15.17% (Excellent)
ROIC = EBIT/IC = 21.47% (Excellent)
ROE = 15.64% (Great)
FCF at Mar 31st 2017 = RM54.363mil, CY = 12.83% (Excellent)
Price/Book = 1.45 (OK)
Operation cash flow/net profit = 1.31 (great)
FCF/invested capital = 16.63% (excellent)
FCF/Revenue = 13.76% (excellent)

Posted by nikicheong > 2017-07-13 23:10 | Report Abuse

LOL dude that's how you calculate intrinsic value? Pluck some figure out of your back and peg EV/EBIT at 10 and PE at 12? Damn that's sad.

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-07-17 15:03 | Report Abuse

niki, everyone has his own way of defining intrinsic value... u sound super expert so why don't u point out to me which part of my calculation is plucked from the sky and is baseless?
and why don't you share to all of us how you do ur own calculation?
i believe many of us are very interested to know..

pls enlighten us instead of just the pure mockery...

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-07-17 15:04 | Report Abuse

i do use some other methods like DCF (discounted cash flow), DDM (discounted dividend model), etc to do my valuations sometimes.. but it varies from case to case...

pls enlighten us....

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-07-17 15:17 | Report Abuse

of course, that does not mean i do not look into the business and prospect of the company.. what i wanted to say is that, business must be supported by real numbers...

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-07-18 09:54 | Report Abuse

most ppl are only interested in the business prospect/expansion but many have neglected the valuations that are supported by numbers. That is the purpose why I am pointing these out.
Value investment is a metric method that must be supported by actual fundamental numbers...

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-07-18 10:01 | Report Abuse

nikicheong, I saw some of your comments in Prlexus forum. Though most of them are rather silly and made me feel sick/super funny, i did not bother to even comment about it bcoz i think that is your own way of investing.

Since you wanted to openly discuss this, let me ask you back...
you acted and sounded like a "prediction expert" in predicting how low prlexus price can go to...
i guess u must have a crystal ball in front of u... but what is funny is.. u kept revising/lowering your target entry price (for you to buy)... haha... how did u derive that target entry price? pluck from sky? why keep lowering (just bcoz u see it drops more so u lowered it)?

u may end up not buying any share as you think you can time the best price and bottom fish...
that is super funny... a value investor will buy a share when it is trading below its intrinsic value and has room for safety margin. It is impossible to time the bottom price.. as long as it is undervalued, we can still buy if we still have bullets... and then sit there and wait for it to realize its value..

Posted by ragingharrypotato > 2017-07-18 16:08 | Report Abuse

A hedge fund manager with impeccable track record once said, if i do good valuation work, he guarantees that the market will agree with me. He just doesn't tell me when.

So to the naysayers, enjoy the victory while it lasts. The market will prove eventually by investing in Success, I will be right and you will be wrong.

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-07-20 12:28 | Report Abuse

well said ragingharrypotato...

Posted by ttluck > 2017-08-28 12:45 | Report Abuse

its moving......time to get some...

Posted by chankp7010 > 2017-08-30 16:09 | Report Abuse

Still no news on QR this afternoon. Do you think QR is bad? I would think so as most companies would do so if the QR is bad and push till the last day of the permitted time to release its results.

Posted by ginvin > 2017-08-30 19:51 | Report Abuse

Superb! This is so undervalue now!

Posted by nocindycat > 2017-08-31 11:47 | Report Abuse

wow, super good profits and operating cash flow

Posted by ginvin > 2017-08-31 13:28 | Report Abuse

Net cash company soon to be! Wohoo.... bottom line will further improve with no interest charges

Posted by Harold Huong > 2017-08-31 20:23 | Report Abuse

Fly High...

Posted by LogicTradingAnalysis > 2017-09-03 21:30 | Report Abuse

sure fly

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-09-05 11:36 | Report Abuse

wow... superb quarterly results but today the price goes down?
haha.. too fishy... must be some operators purposely pulling it down to collect...

EPS of over 40sen a year.. and look at how much they paid back the bank loan this quarter.. and the strong operating cash flow... now cash at hand almost catch up with the total short + long term loan... going to be net cash soon maybe next quarter...

so u can understand now why operators keep pushing the price down despite the excellent result...

i am still holding it tight.. not to let go a single share yet.. hehe

Posted by ttluck > 2017-09-05 12:45 | Report Abuse

i think due to market sentiment.....North Korea missile issue....but good....keep more dropping...then can enter more....

Posted by ttluck > 2017-09-05 15:25 | Report Abuse

nice drop....time to accumulate....yum yum..

Posted by ginvin > 2017-09-05 16:18 | Report Abuse

me too, collect collect, bargain bargain!

Posted by ttluck > 2017-09-06 15:42 | Report Abuse

good.....get some first....

Posted by Alibabah > 2017-09-07 10:20 | Report Abuse

Dropped again...

Posted by ttluck > 2017-09-07 11:27 | Report Abuse

time to get more...slowly...

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-09-07 14:51 | Report Abuse

an intentional suppress on the price is quite obvious, especially after the release of superb result...
something super fishy now.. haha... interesting...

Posted by Kays > 2017-09-08 12:35 | Report Abuse

The calling price spread is wide, can't figure why this company doesn't attract investors, even though its a good company.

Posted by ttluck > 2017-09-12 10:17 | Report Abuse

this comp need time to be SUCCESS!!!
will be rewarded soon...

Posted by ginvin > 2017-09-13 09:45 | Report Abuse

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5542005

Posted by ginvin > 2017-09-13 09:48 | Report Abuse

5c div declared

Posted by ttluck > 2017-09-13 10:14 | Report Abuse

good....comp tried to reward shareholders...

Posted by ginvin > 2017-09-13 10:24 | Report Abuse

comp tried hard to reward, but the share price somehow work the other way round ^^p

Posted by Kays > 2017-09-27 11:31 | Report Abuse

Still can't figure out what's wrong with this stock, every day ending red!

Posted by monkeyinvestor > 2017-10-03 17:29 | Report Abuse

drop more buy more hold until rich

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-10-04 15:00 | Report Abuse

glad to see that the price is finally picking up steam now, after the release of superb results

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-10-04 15:03 | Report Abuse

per my calculation based on an average value of EV/EBIT & PE, the share price should be worth at least RM5. This has not even taken into account of the bright future of SUCCESS in its particular industry.

Posted by lilu > 2017-10-04 20:37 | Report Abuse

Agree. That growing sales, margin, and minimal capital expenditure make it so attractive

Posted by Mc_Wei > 2017-10-07 10:18 | Report Abuse

Now makes sense why price was pushed down last month. To set reinvestment price at RM3.10.

Posted by sklyte > 2017-10-09 20:39 | Report Abuse

Share split! 3.80 tomorrow!

Posted by ginvin > 2017-10-11 21:36 | Report Abuse

good qr, good dividend, share split..... but no price movement! what is going on?!?!?

Posted by apolloang > 2017-10-11 22:20 | Report Abuse

good one mostly no up,except for the bad apples.rotten stocks only up,maybe nowdays non education people only trade in bursa is it?

Posted by Desirees > 2017-10-13 15:18 | Report Abuse

operators no goreng .

Posted by Victor Tan > 2017-10-28 01:05 | Report Abuse

this stock has too little liquidity and many are holding at a low price and still unwilling to sell because it is undervalued. U will see some action after the split.

Posted by chankp7010 > 2017-11-01 17:12 | Report Abuse

No more "Success"! as the market price has taken a beating, so severe that months ago, it was RM4.00-RM4.20. Hardly any hope to recover to attain RM4.00 level.

Posted by Kays > 2017-11-20 14:40 | Report Abuse

Wow, keep dropping !

Posted by apolloang > 2017-11-20 14:52 | Report Abuse

fri lowest 3.00 only more worst

Posted by Yu_and_Mee > 2017-11-30 11:05 | Report Abuse

Gap down so much, beware

Posted by 20012015 > 2017-11-30 13:03 | Report Abuse

Why down so much?

Posted by Kays > 2017-11-30 15:02 | Report Abuse

Wow, soo much hammering !