Posted by swtay > 2018-11-30 19:53 | Report Abuse

Thanks! Chang

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-11-30 19:55 | Report Abuse

thank you Chang. You're the best =)

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-11-30 19:59 | Report Abuse

It's easy in hindsight to comment. The phrase 'sunset' attributable to HDD industry is not a novel attempt. And yes, I mentioned about the improved HDD tech (point 2), and Big Data trend needs huge storage at affordable pricing, something that SSD (for some reason) couldn't catch up for now.

Too bad I missed the opportunity for re-entry. I should learn more from people like Chang who is willing to share his homework, something that not everyone likes to do in open space like i3.

Question to Chang: Do you think Dufu has moat? As in securing the major customer contract for years to come.

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-11-30 20:01 | Report Abuse

2nd question: What do you feel about the director's credibility? You should know that issue.

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-11-30 20:02 | Report Abuse

The figures are right, the balance sheet looks light. And there's dividend showing the realness of cash inflow. But Fisher's comment on checking management credibility really stops me here.

Anyway, Mr. Market has already proven me wrong. Hence my opinion is irrelevant. Thus, congrats to shareholders who hold it from RM1 to RM4 pre split.

Posted by godhand > 2018-12-01 08:45 | Report Abuse

its more like a niche. hdd will dominate high capacity market. ssd will dominate low capacity market. 2 totally different markets. And dufu revenue works in tandem to its spacer sold which also works in tandem to the increase in capacity of hdd.. we cannot call this a moat but dufu has a very special niche in market because spacer is one of the component which grow with data size. 1gb 1piece 4gb 4 pieces 10gb 10 pieces.

Posted by godhand > 2018-12-01 08:54 | Report Abuse

risk may include technology disruption. but looking at hdd market, spacer has been use since the beginning of time, it just got smaller and smaller. so im not worried

Posted by pang72 > 2018-12-01 08:55 | Report Abuse

It is enterprise HDD will dominate high capacity market." Cloud"

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-12-01 10:07 | Report Abuse

Ah Chang bro... Do you pay to have access to all annual reports? Can share share how you get it?

Posted by Chang Yee Fong > 2018-12-01 12:16 | Report Abuse

Hi Alex,

First check out my posts on the DUFU forum page in August 2nd this year. I am just reiterating what I said post to you.

To answer your first question about DUFU's Moat. DUFU doesn't have a Moat. It has a competitive advantage from being the first manufacturer to retool their manufacturing to take advantage of new technology in 2012. In fact check out my previous posts in August 13th where I showed how DUFU did a lot of capital expenditure to take advantage of the new technology that is coming out. In theory any other manufacturer could also do the same thing to retool their machines to make the component required for the new technology.

The fact that you would think DUFU has a Moat tells me you've read some of the investment literature but barely understand them.

Warren Buffett and his partner Charles Munger used the word Moat to depict the market situation they witnessed, because it is a very special situation.

Lets go back to some history and try to understand the Moat analogy. A Moat is big pile of water surrounding the medieval castle. If we look at the castle as the company we see the Moat as a powerful defensive structure to protect the castle or the company. Compared to other defense structures like a wall a Moat takes a lot of work to build just like a business moat because it takes a lot of effort by a company to build a brand into a Moat like Coca Cola for instance. But why did Warren Buffett and Charles Munger used the word Moat and not a wall. Because if we take the defensive castle analogy further a Moat is a very powerful defensive structure that takes a lot of work and manpower to break. You cannot directly assault it without already losing men as they drown trying to swim the moat. They have to take time to drain it of water, fill it with rocks so they can walk over or build bridges over the Moat. All of these is risky and give the defender time to do more damage to the attacker.

So we take that to actual brands that have a Moat. Coca Cola for instance the first company Buffett and his team said had a Moat. The name Coca Cola is so famous that it will defend the companies revenue in all sorts of times that will assault a company's profitability. In economic recession people would buy less designer clothes but they never stop drinking Coke. If we have an analogy for a Moat in Malaysia it would be Nestle and Milo. When times are bad children still drink Milo.

A Moat is a powerful business position to have whereby your brand or your product cannot be easily copied so it become hard for other business to fight your company to get more market share. At the same time it defends your business in bad economic times because you will still expect a good level of sales of your brand or product in bad times.

As for where I get the company annual reports I'm not sure I understand your question. Are you asking where I can get all the data organized in a way that is easily readable and comparable? Or are you just asking where I can get all the annual reports for a specific company?

Finally don't call me Bro. I'm a pedantic person and Bro to me means "Brother in Arms" since I came from a Military College and I am certain you never served, you haven't earned the right to call me brother.

I'll answer your second question about credibility tonight as that one is another long post.

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-12-01 21:58 | Report Abuse

Thank you Mr Chang. Please let me know the proper way to address you. My apology for not earning the right to call you brother. Please forgive me.

For annual report, yes I'm asking how do you get the data organized in that way. Do you pay for that? Or do you do it manually?

Thank you for teaching me on moat. I learned a lot from you.

Awaiting your comment on Dufu's director's credibility, citing the purchase using shareholder's money in personal name.

Thank you.

Posted by Chang Yee Fong > 2018-12-02 23:10 | Report Abuse

Hi Alex,

Just call me Chang, or CYF like everybody else is doing. Familiarity is not something I give lightly.

When I started investing I organized all the data myself and did the raw number crunching. It's only recently in the past 3 years that I started using Equities tracker and their equities management tool. https://equitiestracker.com/ It's not cheap however I find they have a pretty good beginners and intermediate course on Value Investing that I recommend to a lot of people also.

Ok lets tackle the issue with the directors credibility.

Your asking for my view point. Short answer is, I personally do not care a lot about what happened. The business operation is more important than ethical management.

In DUFU's situation I consider the Ethical breach to be inconsequential to the overall running of the business. Let me break it down for you.

- Yong the former CEO had embezzled some money from the company.
- He wasn't attempting to manipulate the companies annual reports to make the company profits look better, to manipulate share prices.
- The manager was fined by the SEC not jailed
- The reason the SEC fined the management is because they repaid the money they embezzled from the company.
- Which mean in the end no real harm was done to the companies finances.
- The fact that the SEC has already investigated the company means that DUFU is now under their radar.
- Which means any further whiff of wrong doing by DUFU will immediately cause bring the SEC down on them.
- For now DUFU's directors have to walk on some eggshells to make sure they don't bring further SEC scrutiny.
- I'm not entirely happy with Li being the head of the Board of Directors in DUFU and the CFO of the company.
- However since Li also owns the largest single share of the company I trust him to not piss on his own well.

This situation whereby the head of the board also holds an administrative position in the company is not that rare in Malaysia. Look at Lim Kok Thay and Genting. As long as the guy on the top holds a large chunk of share in the company they wont do much harm to the long term prospects of the company.

I long learned to accept that since I live in Southeast Asia I'm going to have to live with a degree of Ethical Flexibility in regards to corruption.

I recommend you read the following book.

False Economy by Alan Beattie
https://www.amazon.com/False-Economy-Surprising-Economic-History/dp/1594484449

I read the book about 8 years ago and one portion stood out. The arthur compared the most honest ruler of an African nation in history Julius Nyerere to one of the most corrupt Leaders in Southeast Asian history Suharto and concluded this. Even though Nyerere is universally revered as honest he made his nation poorer while Suharto made his nation richer.

Posted by pang72 > 2018-12-03 07:40 | Report Abuse

Yeap:)

Posted by plroo7 > 2018-12-03 08:50 | Report Abuse

G morning to all... Most of d market up today... Have a nice day everyone....

Posted by PW888 > 2018-12-03 14:49 | Report Abuse

Another great sharing. Thanks CYF.

Posted by swtay > 2018-12-03 16:39 | Report Abuse

Thanks CYF! Good sharing! I think mostly will agree with your explanation.

Posted by Oliver Ooi > 2018-12-03 17:06 | Report Abuse

looks like some1 wrong on dufu aspect...wakakakka,i felt sad for those listen to them.poor guy

Posted by RJ87 > 2018-12-03 19:40 | Report Abuse

My bad guys...It's just announcement that major share holders announcing they got more shares from bonus issue....

Posted by Dan Mohd > 2018-12-04 07:20 | Report Abuse

Dow n Nasdaq up again, see how Dufu perform

Posted by godhand > 2018-12-04 16:56 | Report Abuse

calvin shit all over the place and left. at least give ur price target la ask ppl run only

Posted by apolloang > 2018-12-04 17:19 | Report Abuse

I told nenek dufu better than dnounce,he stubborn no wanna listen

Posted by plroo7 > 2018-12-04 17:20 | Report Abuse

Godhand - he teachs us not to be greedy... It depends on us to decide when to sell or hold on.... 10q

Posted by Dan Mohd > 2018-12-05 07:06 | Report Abuse

Dow n Nasdaq dive

Posted by godhand > 2018-12-05 15:54 | Report Abuse

what is ur definition of greedy.

Posted by EatCoconutCanWin > 2018-12-05 18:00 | Report Abuse

DUFU major customer is Micron and Intel.

Posted by Chang Yee Fong > 2018-12-05 18:46 | Report Abuse

EatCoconutCanWin huh where did you learn that, or why do you say that?

Intel and Micron are computer chips makers meaning Semiconductor based manufacturing. DUFU makes precision metal components. That is totally unrelated to what Micron and Intel needs for their business.

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-12-05 18:49 | Report Abuse

Thank you Chang

Posted by pang72 > 2018-12-05 19:47 | Report Abuse

Wow...dufu out of sudden secure two major customer, micron and Intel?

Posted by EatCoconutCanWin > 2018-12-06 10:26 | Report Abuse

go go dufu TP3

Posted by Kawkaw > 2018-12-06 23:11 | Report Abuse

Chang yee fong..
Flip the edge for the while..

Posted by stockholm999 > 2018-12-07 16:08 | Report Abuse

why free fall???

Posted by calvintaneng > 2018-12-07 16:29 | Report Abuse

Why free fall?

Syndicates bought over 20 million Dufu shares before and after announcement of bonus issue to Jack up Dufu share price artificially

Now with margin loan interest plus little retail buying they are unable to prop up further

Posted by DL60 > 2018-12-07 18:37 | Report Abuse

Closing of Rm2.51 is equivalent to RM3.77 pre bonus issue.

Posted by celaw0412 > 2018-12-10 10:15 | Report Abuse

Today free fall again..

Posted by plroo7 > 2018-12-10 12:25 | Report Abuse

Down again... Calvin knows everything...

Posted by pang72 > 2018-12-10 12:58 | Report Abuse

Every day fall fall fall...
What else can do?

Posted by trulyinvest > 2018-12-10 13:00 | Report Abuse

Masturbate la.,wat else

Posted by Sslee > 2018-12-10 13:53 | Report Abuse

Dear YFChang,
I happen to look into DUFU forum comments page and I am impressed with your resourcefulness and sharp eye in looking at the small detail that many general people overlook (DUFU vs JCY) and your approach in fundamental analysis. But I had to say I beg to differ from your view, “Suharto made his nation richer” I am working in Indonesia for many years and wrote this in my update:

I was in Medan, North Sumatra, Indonesia in June 2001.
What is Indonesia? Indonesia is an archipelagic country of 17,000+ islands stretching along the equator from Sumatra in the West to East Papua in the East with land area 1,904,569 KM2 (5.8 times) and population 237.6 million (8 times) bigger than Malaysia. Indonesia was formally a Portugal and then Dutch colonial. Declare independent in 1945 by the then charismatic leader the first President Sukarno. An attempted coup in 1965 was conveniently blame to communist party and lead to a violent army lead (General Suharto) anti communist purge which resulted in about half a million genocide of suspect communist members or its sympathizers. (Mostly innocent Indonesia Chinese. The western world indirectly consents to the killing due to unfound fear of communist taking over the world. A foolish legacy of cool war) General Suharto politically out-manoeuvre President Sukarno and was appointed president in 1968, thus started an authoritarian army regime which will be remembered for its excess in corruption, collusion and nepotism.
The 1998 financial crisis where Indonesia Rupiah was forced to devalue at unprecedented rate from RP 3,000 per US dollar to almost RP 30,000 per US dollar lead to popular protest and again the innocent Indonesia Chinese became a common scapegoat where staged riot were targeting the Chinese business area in the capital Jakarta. President Suharto finally succumbed to popular demand and resigned from the presidency and vice president Habibie was appointed as president. President Habibie will to hold the presidency for one year and then a hang parliament appointed Wahid to the presidency. Two year later President Wahid was forced to resign from office due to alleged involvement in corruption scandal and handed over the presidency to vice president Megawati. (Head of PDI party and daughter of Indonesia first President Surkarno) In 2004 Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono won Indonesia’s first free direct presidential election.

By 2001 Indonesia had reformed itself from an authoritarian regime to a relatively stable young democratic country where rule of laws had replaced the rule of man. It was under these relatively stable conditions and rule of law which attracted foreign and local investment.

I agreed with your stand on Ethical Flexibility in regards to corruption as thing is not what you see a black and white judgment as there are so call grey area or common good. I even ask my son which one you prefer:
1. A black corrupted town mayor who pocketed all the allocation from central government for his own lavish living and the town became a poorly keep town and young man had to migrate to other town in order to find a job.
2. A white incorruptible honest mayor that even use his own salary to maintain the town hence you have a well maintain town but still void of young man because not many job opportunities were created.
3. A grey capable mayor who go out and get the foreign investment to come in, incorporate a land corporation with landowners and gave himself 10% cut. The town became thriving with business and plenty of job opportunities and every original residents of the town can now have whole three generation living together with a comfortable living. This is what happening in China.

By the way can I ask you do you think Inari has any competitive advantage?

Thank you.
P/S: I had not read the book “False Economy by Alan Beattie” but will read it if I can find one in the book store

Posted by dinpolo > 2018-12-10 13:53 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockholm999 > 2018-12-11 09:19 | Report Abuse

another fall today

Posted by EatCoconutCanWin > 2018-12-11 09:27 | Report Abuse

rebounding

Posted by plroo7 > 2018-12-11 09:30 | Report Abuse

Market still down... Hard to rebound....

Posted by EatCoconutCanWin > 2018-12-11 09:38 | Report Abuse

buy liao...

Posted by plroo7 > 2018-12-11 10:00 | Report Abuse

Ok...

Posted by EatCoconutCanWin > 2018-12-11 10:24 | Report Abuse

i sold...paper loss..soli my mistake

Posted by godhand > 2018-12-11 10:38 | Report Abuse

look at him talking. artificially lol

Posted by plroo7 > 2018-12-11 12:07 | Report Abuse

Hee!!!... What to do?... Hope market rebound again....Hv a nice day to all -

Posted by Chang Yee Fong > 2018-12-12 13:32 | Report Abuse

Hi Sslee

Let's break down my original comment.

I was comparing Julius Nyerere with Suharto and their legacy.

Unfortunately we do not have accurate numbers on GDP of Tanzania during Julius Nyerere time and compare them with the same period with Suharto.
But it is generally accepted by all economist that Indonesia economy grew under Suharto time while Tanzania's economy shrunk during Juliis Nyerere time. These two links will show.

This article belows states that.
https://www.indonesia-investments.com/culture/economy/new-order-miracle/item247?

These article praises Nyerere but admits that economically Tanzania isn't doing so well.
https://www.nytimes.com/1975/12/12/archives/economic-woes-and-drought-peril-tanzanias-gains.html
https://www.nytimes.com/1990/10/24/world/nyerere-and-tanzania-no-regrets-at-socialism.html


But lets look at the numbers during Suharto period.
These statistics is from the world bank data.
https://knoema.com/mhrzolg/gdp-by-country-statistics-from-the-world-bank-1960-2017?country=Indonesia

There are no data during Nyerere time but the data on Tanzania after he left can be seen.
https://knoema.com/mhrzolg/gdp-by-country-statistics-from-the-world-bank-1960-2017?country=Tanzania


If you note, those numbers on Tanzania which is after Nyerere time with GDP per capita in the 1980's showing that doesn't even match Indonesia GDP per capita during the 1970's. In Raw numbers alone Indonesia was doing better economically during Suharto's time than Tanzania is doing before, during and even after Nyerere time to the current day.

Ignore the numbers and lets look at the base infrastructure developed during Suharto's time and during Nyerere time.

After 1998 Financial crisis Indonesia still had banks, International Airports, Manufacturing Industries and a transportation network to rebuild the nations economy after 30 years of corruption.

While after Nyerere there were no banks because the financial institutions had been wrecked when the Tanzania nationalized the banks during his time, there was no manufacturing factories to help rebuild, their airports barely reached 1000 international visitors at the end of his presidency. Etc etc etc.

Even Nyerere with deep honesty and Humility admitted he failed when he stepped down as president in 1985.
http://internationalpublishers.tripod.com/id25.html


Which circle back to my original comment. Indonesia was richer after Suharto while Tanzania was not. The rulers of both nations existed in the same period. They both choose very different paths to ruling their nation.

Nyerere legacy was a poorer but stable nation from the time he took power. His honesty and idealism kept the nation stable. But it did not make the nation or it's people richer, though an argument can be made that the stability itself is a good legacy.

Suharto legacy is a richer nation from when he took power. A nation that had a strong enough infrastructure to take advantage of good stable and honest government to make the country even richer and better after he lost power.

Was Suharto regime a corrupt regime? Hell Yes.

Could things have been better with somebody less corrupt? Most likely, we all look at Singapore as the example.

Does Suharto deserve praise for his accomplishment? Not really. The reason Indonesia is richer is because he himself wanted to make himself richer. It was by accident not deliberate policy to make things better for everyone.

Did Suharto leave a big debt problem for his nation that needed to be fixed by future leaders? Definitely.

Disagree with me but the numbers do not lie and we have to accept the history as it is and only try to make future decisions on the lessons it gives us.

Posted by Sslee > 2018-12-12 21:33 | Report Abuse

Dear YFChang,
Thank you for the below link:
http://internationalpublishers.tripod.com/id25.html
Reading the article I have my sympathy for President Julius Nyerere and I think the western world and IMF were too harsh to condemn him for his "disastrous" economic policies as describe “By the late sixties, which was not long after independence, it was still one of the world's poorest countries. And like many other developing countries, it suffered from a heavy burden of foreign debt, a decrease in foreign aid, and a decline in the price of its export commodities; problems which continued in the seventies and eighties. Nyerere tried to tackle these problems by implementing a series of measures which included large-scale nationalization and establishment of ujamaa villages to boost agricultural production, although his policy of ujamaa, what has been called African socialism, was influenced by his strong belief in the merits of the traditional African communal way of life from which he drew inspiration when he enunciated his socialist ideology. The ujamaa failed miserably because many people resented being put together into ujamaa villages, a move which did not encourage hard work and ownership, led to low morale and low productivity. Couple with social programmes of free education, free medical service, free water, as were many other social amenities, for everybody. People didn't have to pay a cent for all those services including those with enough money who could easily afford to pay for that are destined for failure” and later “implemented austerity measures mandated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and by the World Bank as conditions for aid. Yet the structural adjustment programmes {(SAPs) The forced opening up of the economy to the private sector in most areas entailed disposition of state assets for acquisition by local and foreign investors, (Free open market capitalist economy) failed to produce results anticipated by the donor countries and their economic experts and development strategists.}

These failures have it root cause in one sentence: “At the World Bank these people asked me to speak. Then they asked me the questions. The first question they asked was how did you fail? I responded that we took over a country with 85 per cent of its adult population illiterate. The British ruled us for 43 years. When they left, there were 2 trained engineers and 12 doctors. This is the country we
inherited.”

Compare this with Indonesia during Suharto rule, Indonesia had already a trading nation with a good pool of well education population: Professional, Administrator, Banker, Trader, Planter, Business people and etc. Hence what Suharto needed to do is maintain political stability and an open market capitalist economy policy.

So by concluding: “Nyerere even through is universally revered as honest but he made his nation poorer while Suharto a corrupt man made his nation richer. Is very superficial, only true base on economical data but overstate the contributions of Suharto and unfair to Nyerere.

Thank you

Posted by Chang Yee Fong > 2018-12-12 23:42 | Report Abuse

Let's just agree to disagree. Good night.