PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDINGS BERHAD

KLSE (MYR): PMETAL (8869)

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Last Price

5.32

Today's Change

-0.04 (0.75%)

Day's Change

5.30 - 5.38

Trading Volume

1,019,500


18 people like this.

15,895 comment(s). Last comment by Augustine 1 week ago

3930

27 posts

Posted by 3930 > 2014-09-08 11:56 | Report Abuse

today is t+4 off 2295.3 lots

ahlee

1,292 posts

Posted by ahlee > 2014-09-08 12:18 | Report Abuse

quite disappointed..

Joel

4,580 posts

Posted by Joel > 2014-09-08 12:42 | Report Abuse

Cannot always journey to the North.

Must have some correction price.

Correction price will attract more investors to join in@PMETAL.

Posted by 360Capitalist > 2014-09-08 15:12 | Report Abuse

PMetal very strong sign to break new high soon...

FY2015 Total Profit Estimation Per Annum After Minority Interest = RM1008 Million or RM 1.008B
Ordinary Shares In Circulation/Issued = 550 mil Shares
Earning Per Share = RM1.83

Fair Value :-
P/E 10 Times : RM18.30
P/E 15 Times : RM27.50
P/E 20 Times : RM36,60

Every hike of USD100 in aluminium price will bring in additional profit of RM135mil to 145Mil per year and hence will reduce the P/E ratio.

Posted by 360Capitalist > 2014-09-08 15:20 | Report Abuse

7.20

8wpwtmt8

2,949 posts

Posted by 8wpwtmt8 > 2014-09-08 15:21 | Report Abuse

7.19 is broken. So, can it surge all the way to 8.30?

Joel

4,580 posts

Posted by Joel > 2014-09-08 15:25 | Report Abuse

Once rm7.19 is break, the next price will be at RM7.50 for this week in any day fr now !

Joel

4,580 posts

Posted by Joel > 2014-09-08 15:33 | Report Abuse

大家请留意!

PRESS METAL@New TP fr RHB Investment 可能会在近期内公布。

Posted by newbie123456 > 2014-09-08 15:42 | Report Abuse

Buy now.

Joel

4,580 posts

Posted by Joel > 2014-09-08 15:51 | Report Abuse

Comment : Collect Pmetal !

Posted by newbie123456 > 2014-09-08 16:05 | Report Abuse

Buy now.

Posted by 360Capitalist > 2014-09-08 16:10 | Report Abuse

Target price for this week.. RM8.30

Joel

4,580 posts

Posted by Joel > 2014-09-08 16:12 | Report Abuse

Short term in 45 Minutes TP fr today RM7.38 !

shlyw

719 posts

Posted by shlyw > 2014-09-08 16:19 | Report Abuse

THIS YEAR THE STOCK PRICE CAN BE UP TO RM10.00

Posted by newbie123456 > 2014-09-08 16:25 | Report Abuse

Last call for BUY under 7.30.

Joel

4,580 posts

Posted by Joel > 2014-09-08 16:25 | Report Abuse

Short term in 45 Minutes TP fr today RM7.38 !

明天或后天PRESS METAL股价预料将达RM7.50 以上!

Posted by newbie123456 > 2014-09-08 16:37 | Report Abuse

Bye bye 7.30.

AbbyLOO

222 posts

Posted by AbbyLOO > 2014-09-08 16:55 | Report Abuse

just curious, since can convert fr wc to mother share, isn't it better to buy wc, add rm2.20 to convert to mother? expecially if one can get wc around 5?

i am holding only wc...

undertaker

146 posts

Posted by undertaker > 2014-09-08 18:28 | Report Abuse

AbbyLoo, u r right. This is what i do now...

AbbyLOO

222 posts

Posted by AbbyLOO > 2014-09-08 18:39 | Report Abuse

Thxs undertaker. Gonna hold wc tight tight.

AbbyLOO

222 posts

Posted by AbbyLOO > 2014-09-08 19:18 | Report Abuse

Undertaker... Can I ask something?
When the bonus issue approves, mother will b split into 2, no change to wc right? It will still b 1:1, 2.20? Tat time the mother may be cheaper then wc plus 2.20. Hence conversion shd b done b4 ex-date for mother 1:1?

undertaker

146 posts

Posted by undertaker > 2014-09-08 21:39 | Report Abuse

Hi AbbyLoo, dun worry too much... Normally after ex the wc price will be adjusted & conversion price will remain unless amended. My Strategy now is to accumulate wc when the wc still in cash warrant position & will convert all to mother shares after Egm approval (estimate on Oct)... Coz can get the Dividen on Dec as well as the Bonus issue which is arround Dec i think... :-)

AbbyLOO

222 posts

Posted by AbbyLOO > 2014-09-08 21:44 | Report Abuse

Ic ok. Understand. Must Mirror ur strategy. Can keep us updated here? ^o^
Hope it's not too much to ask. Wats ur ave wc price collected?

Posted by 360Capitalist > 2014-09-09 09:35 | Report Abuse

Based on All In Aluminium Price at USD 2500 Per Metric Tonne, PMetal,s profit will reach RM1Billion with Earning Per Share = RM1.83 , if P/E 10 Times, the fair value is RM18.30.

Looks like RM15.00 can be achieved before exBonus on Nov/Dec 2014, and hence give a Best Return of 100% within 90 day.

Aggressive Buy now...

Posted by Ravin Cheema > 2014-09-09 09:51 | Report Abuse

:) :) :) :)

ss20_20

91 posts

Posted by ss20_20 > 2014-09-09 09:54 | Report Abuse

360Capitalist: wow... RM18.30

jrjs

193 posts

Posted by jrjs > 2014-09-09 10:07 | Report Abuse

7.44 now...

stanleysee

130 posts

Posted by stanleysee > 2014-09-09 10:08 | Report Abuse

360Capitalist, I think you are too optimistic on your forecast. within 90 days? that will need a lot of money to push the price.

Posted by 360Capitalist > 2014-09-09 10:12 | Report Abuse

This week Target Price RM8.30

Posted by Beginner1989 > 2014-09-09 10:13 | Report Abuse

It's crazy.. can i still go in at this price?

Posted by 360Capitalist > 2014-09-09 10:24 | Report Abuse

PMetal is a solid and fundamental sound stock.
Its superior earning will be hottest topic or headlines soon due to Aluminium Price rally caused by curtailed of production capacities by Smelters and new demand from automotive and aircraft sectors.

The EPS of RM 1.83 per share or 46 cents per quarter in 2015 should be very conservative estimation and should have great potential to hit 60 cents per quarter once LME spot rate hit USD2500 to 2600 while premium remain at USD400 to 500 range,

My Only Advice is convert your loss making stock portfolio and convert into PMetal to recover your losses and make handsome gain in PMetal.

Chance in a lifetime, The Only Stock that can make your retirement plan come true...

8wpwtmt8

2,949 posts

Posted by 8wpwtmt8 > 2014-09-09 10:37 | Report Abuse

I agree, one time chance of a lifetime.

Posted by Beginner1989 > 2014-09-09 10:37 | Report Abuse

I know it/s one time chance.. but it's so high now.. i don't really dare to go in..

Posted by newbie123456 > 2014-09-09 11:05 | Report Abuse

Buy now. Next wave coming.

pathew

2,028 posts

Posted by pathew > 2014-09-09 11:10 | Report Abuse

too fast go up also scary, it should rest a bit before next upswing... just my 1 sen thought

Posted by Beginner1989 > 2014-09-09 11:13 | Report Abuse

I actually never see a stock like that.. admit i'm still learning. actually a stock goes up will go down. but it seems this stock never come down yet.. it is going up non stop.. WHY? Can i really go in? it's my hard earn money!

CCV2013

121 posts

Posted by CCV2013 > 2014-09-09 11:17 | Report Abuse

Hi 360Capitalist - your thoughts and comments on this please ? Thank you.

Trading Buy with a Target Price of RM8.87 based on a target Fwd. P/E of 14.5x on FY15E EPS of 61 sen. Our Fwd. P/E is based on a 5% premium to FBM Mid 70 Index FY15E Fwd. P/E of 13.8x. We believe our benchmark is appropriate as the average FBM Mid 70 (FBM70) market cap of RM4.6b is comparable to PMETAL’s current market cap of RM4.0b. Our premium is justified by strong FY14E-FY15E expected earnings growth of 91%-28%, well exceeding FBM70’s expected 16%-6% growth. At our current TP, we expect a potential total return of 24.1% (21.7% upside, 2.5% dividend yield) which warrants a trading buy recommendation.

Source: Kenanga

undertaker

146 posts

Posted by undertaker > 2014-09-09 11:39 | Report Abuse

Still uptrend now. Never too late to enter, advisable enter before EGM approval. Otherwise, too late to make big profit! Good Luck & Hold tight!...

Posted by 360Capitalist > 2014-09-09 11:40 | Report Abuse

As usual.. stock analyst always conservative in their forward looking analysis..

Read carefully :-
Thus, we expect aluminium prices to increase to an
average of USD1900/MT (+3%) in FY14E and USD2100/MT (+11%) in
FY15E.
>>> I think they have not include the Premium pay by the buyers.. USD400 per MT

Based on our sensitivity analysis, every USD100/MT increase in aluminum prices could directly translate into a 5% increase in Press Metal (PMETAL)’s bottom line.
>>> Additional Profit of RM135 to 145 Mil per USD100 hike in aluminium price

Hence, we believe PMETAL should benefit directly
from the higher price trend as 97% of revenue is derived from its
Manufacturing & Trading (M&T) division, which sells aluminum ingots, billets
and extrusion products.
• Margin expansion in M&T division to drive earnings growth.

My View :-
1) The current LME Spot Rate is USD2080 Vs USD1900 by Kenanga exclude premium and
RHB is using USD2200 for FY2014 and USD2400 for FY2015 in its last report (with Premium)
2) The PAT given by Kenanga is lower that RHB projections.. yet it give a higher target price of RM8.87 than RHB RM 7.38.

We should wait for RHB new report with new Target Price as I believe should be release soon as the current prevailing price of RM 7.42 already exceeded RHB target price. of RM7.38.

8wpwtmt8

2,949 posts

Posted by 8wpwtmt8 > 2014-09-09 12:23 | Report Abuse

Press Metal Berhad - Time to Shine

Author: kiasutrader | Publish date: Tue, 9 Sep 10:18

Riding on aluminium price recovery. We hold a bullish view on aluminium prices, premised on the increasing popularity of aluminium in the auto industry as a steel alternative, growing demand in emerging markets, and declining global production rates. Thus, we expect aluminium prices to increase to an average of USD1900/MT (+3%) in FY14E and USD2100/MT (+11%) in FY15E. Based on our sensitivity analysis, every USD100/MT increase in aluminum prices could directly translate into a 5% increase in Press Metal (PMETAL)’s bottom line. Hence, we believe PMETAL should benefit directly from the higher price trend as 97% of revenue is derived from its Manufacturing & Trading (M&T) division, which sells aluminum ingots, billets and extrusion products.

Margin expansion in M&T division to drive earnings growth. We are expecting M&T division’s margin to expand significantly by 4.5 times to 8.6% (from 1.9% in FY13). Note that the large quantum of growth is due to a low base effect in FY13 as a result of the Mukah plant shutdown which depressed FY13 earnings. Our margin expectation is on the conservative side, as it is similar to the FY12 level of 8.6%, even though margin should see improvement vs. FY12 due to the new and higher energy-efficient Samalaju plant. As for FY15, we expect PBT margin improvement to 9.2% as the Group is embarking on additional logistics upgrades, which should lower average manufacturing cost per MT. Furthermore, the company is targeting to increase its alloyed aluminum production to 40% by FY16E, which commands a better price premium with minimal additional capex. Overall, we expect the margin expansion to flow straight to bottom line as M&T division contributed 97% of PMETAL’s revenue and 99% of PBT in FY13.

Expect FY14E revenue to surge 25% due to capacity expansion. On top of margin expansion, we are also expecting superior revenue growth of 25% to RM3.9b in FY14E on additional capacity expansion. PMETAL has continued to ramp up production at the Samalaju plant by 33% to its full rated capacity of 320k MT/year of aluminum production. We expect the newly-added capacity to boost revenue immediately. This is because each ‘potline’ consists of about 150 aluminium smelting pots which are operated as a batch. The smelting process runs continuously with each pot producing almost 3 MT of aluminium per day. Hence PMETAL’s new expansion should enjoy optimal capacity utilization from the new potline upon commencement of operations. As for FY15E, we expect revenue growth of 16% to RM4.5b, driven mainly by rising aluminium prices and a shift towards value-add alloyed aluminium products, which command a 15-20% price premium above the market price of aluminum.

Sustainable operating margin due to attractive electricity cost. Based on our estimates, PMETAL has a higher-than-average expected FY14E operating margin of 10.8% compared to its regional peers’ average FY14E margin of 4.5%. The margin advantage is due to the attractive electricity costs compared to other aluminium smelters in the region. We expect the high margin trend to be sustainable as the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) signed between PMETAL and Sarawak Energy (Sesco) in 2011 should be effective for another 22 years. Lastly, we note that PMETAL’s subsidiary Press Metal Bintulu (PMB), which operates the Samalaju smelter, may get an additional 5 years extension for its pioneer status upon expiry in Dec 17 (the current extension started Jan 13).

Trading Buy with a Target Price of RM8.87 based on a target Fwd. P/E of 14.5x on FY15E EPS of 61 sen. Our Fwd. P/E is based on a 5% premium to FBM Mid 70 Index FY15E Fwd. P/E of 13.8x. We believe our benchmark is appropriate as the average FBM Mid 70 (FBM70) market cap of RM4.6b is comparable to PMETAL’s current market cap of RM4.0b. Our premium is justified by strong FY14E-FY15E expected earnings growth of 91%-28%, well exceeding FBM70’s expected 16%-6% growth. At our current TP, we expect a potential total return of 24.1% (21.7% upside, 2.5% dividend yield) which warrants a trading buy recommendation.

Joel

4,580 posts

AbbyLOO

222 posts

Posted by AbbyLOO > 2014-09-09 13:29 | Report Abuse

Joel, 买 wc 再加2元20分转母股也不错吧?

ss20_20

91 posts

Posted by ss20_20 > 2014-09-09 14:19 | Report Abuse

the uptrend will be un'press'able ? :)

Joel

4,580 posts

Posted by Joel > 2014-09-09 14:50 | Report Abuse

今天应该会超过RM7.50 !

Joel

4,580 posts

Posted by Joel > 2014-09-09 15:16 | Report Abuse

http://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?type=A&value=P&source=M&securityCode=8869

注意它的:Earning per Share & NTA !

1. Earning Per Share fr 5.48 cent increased to 11.57 cent !

2. NTA fr RM2.50 increased to RM3.29 !

Posted by newbie123456 > 2014-09-09 15:39 | Report Abuse

Buy now.

Posted by newbie123456 > 2014-09-09 15:48 | Report Abuse

Last call to buy below 7.40

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