FY2015 Total Profit Estimation Per Annum After Minority Interest = RM1008 Million or RM 1.008B Ordinary Shares In Circulation/Issued = 550 mil Shares Earning Per Share = RM1.83
Fair Value :- P/E 10 Times : RM18.30 P/E 15 Times : RM27.50 P/E 20 Times : RM36,60
Every hike of USD100 in aluminium price will bring in additional profit of RM135mil to 145Mil per year and hence will reduce the P/E ratio.
just curious, since can convert fr wc to mother share, isn't it better to buy wc, add rm2.20 to convert to mother? expecially if one can get wc around 5?
Undertaker... Can I ask something? When the bonus issue approves, mother will b split into 2, no change to wc right? It will still b 1:1, 2.20? Tat time the mother may be cheaper then wc plus 2.20. Hence conversion shd b done b4 ex-date for mother 1:1?
Hi AbbyLoo, dun worry too much... Normally after ex the wc price will be adjusted & conversion price will remain unless amended. My Strategy now is to accumulate wc when the wc still in cash warrant position & will convert all to mother shares after Egm approval (estimate on Oct)... Coz can get the Dividen on Dec as well as the Bonus issue which is arround Dec i think... :-)
Based on All In Aluminium Price at USD 2500 Per Metric Tonne, PMetal,s profit will reach RM1Billion with Earning Per Share = RM1.83 , if P/E 10 Times, the fair value is RM18.30.
Looks like RM15.00 can be achieved before exBonus on Nov/Dec 2014, and hence give a Best Return of 100% within 90 day.
PMetal is a solid and fundamental sound stock. Its superior earning will be hottest topic or headlines soon due to Aluminium Price rally caused by curtailed of production capacities by Smelters and new demand from automotive and aircraft sectors.
The EPS of RM 1.83 per share or 46 cents per quarter in 2015 should be very conservative estimation and should have great potential to hit 60 cents per quarter once LME spot rate hit USD2500 to 2600 while premium remain at USD400 to 500 range,
My Only Advice is convert your loss making stock portfolio and convert into PMetal to recover your losses and make handsome gain in PMetal.
Chance in a lifetime, The Only Stock that can make your retirement plan come true...
I actually never see a stock like that.. admit i'm still learning. actually a stock goes up will go down. but it seems this stock never come down yet.. it is going up non stop.. WHY? Can i really go in? it's my hard earn money!
Hi 360Capitalist - your thoughts and comments on this please ? Thank you.
Trading Buy with a Target Price of RM8.87 based on a target Fwd. P/E of 14.5x on FY15E EPS of 61 sen. Our Fwd. P/E is based on a 5% premium to FBM Mid 70 Index FY15E Fwd. P/E of 13.8x. We believe our benchmark is appropriate as the average FBM Mid 70 (FBM70) market cap of RM4.6b is comparable to PMETAL’s current market cap of RM4.0b. Our premium is justified by strong FY14E-FY15E expected earnings growth of 91%-28%, well exceeding FBM70’s expected 16%-6% growth. At our current TP, we expect a potential total return of 24.1% (21.7% upside, 2.5% dividend yield) which warrants a trading buy recommendation.
As usual.. stock analyst always conservative in their forward looking analysis..
Read carefully :- Thus, we expect aluminium prices to increase to an average of USD1900/MT (+3%) in FY14E and USD2100/MT (+11%) in FY15E. >>> I think they have not include the Premium pay by the buyers.. USD400 per MT
Based on our sensitivity analysis, every USD100/MT increase in aluminum prices could directly translate into a 5% increase in Press Metal (PMETAL)’s bottom line. >>> Additional Profit of RM135 to 145 Mil per USD100 hike in aluminium price
Hence, we believe PMETAL should benefit directly from the higher price trend as 97% of revenue is derived from its Manufacturing & Trading (M&T) division, which sells aluminum ingots, billets and extrusion products. • Margin expansion in M&T division to drive earnings growth.
My View :- 1) The current LME Spot Rate is USD2080 Vs USD1900 by Kenanga exclude premium and RHB is using USD2200 for FY2014 and USD2400 for FY2015 in its last report (with Premium) 2) The PAT given by Kenanga is lower that RHB projections.. yet it give a higher target price of RM8.87 than RHB RM 7.38.
We should wait for RHB new report with new Target Price as I believe should be release soon as the current prevailing price of RM 7.42 already exceeded RHB target price. of RM7.38.
Riding on aluminium price recovery. We hold a bullish view on aluminium prices, premised on the increasing popularity of aluminium in the auto industry as a steel alternative, growing demand in emerging markets, and declining global production rates. Thus, we expect aluminium prices to increase to an average of USD1900/MT (+3%) in FY14E and USD2100/MT (+11%) in FY15E. Based on our sensitivity analysis, every USD100/MT increase in aluminum prices could directly translate into a 5% increase in Press Metal (PMETAL)’s bottom line. Hence, we believe PMETAL should benefit directly from the higher price trend as 97% of revenue is derived from its Manufacturing & Trading (M&T) division, which sells aluminum ingots, billets and extrusion products.
Margin expansion in M&T division to drive earnings growth. We are expecting M&T division’s margin to expand significantly by 4.5 times to 8.6% (from 1.9% in FY13). Note that the large quantum of growth is due to a low base effect in FY13 as a result of the Mukah plant shutdown which depressed FY13 earnings. Our margin expectation is on the conservative side, as it is similar to the FY12 level of 8.6%, even though margin should see improvement vs. FY12 due to the new and higher energy-efficient Samalaju plant. As for FY15, we expect PBT margin improvement to 9.2% as the Group is embarking on additional logistics upgrades, which should lower average manufacturing cost per MT. Furthermore, the company is targeting to increase its alloyed aluminum production to 40% by FY16E, which commands a better price premium with minimal additional capex. Overall, we expect the margin expansion to flow straight to bottom line as M&T division contributed 97% of PMETAL’s revenue and 99% of PBT in FY13.
Expect FY14E revenue to surge 25% due to capacity expansion. On top of margin expansion, we are also expecting superior revenue growth of 25% to RM3.9b in FY14E on additional capacity expansion. PMETAL has continued to ramp up production at the Samalaju plant by 33% to its full rated capacity of 320k MT/year of aluminum production. We expect the newly-added capacity to boost revenue immediately. This is because each ‘potline’ consists of about 150 aluminium smelting pots which are operated as a batch. The smelting process runs continuously with each pot producing almost 3 MT of aluminium per day. Hence PMETAL’s new expansion should enjoy optimal capacity utilization from the new potline upon commencement of operations. As for FY15E, we expect revenue growth of 16% to RM4.5b, driven mainly by rising aluminium prices and a shift towards value-add alloyed aluminium products, which command a 15-20% price premium above the market price of aluminum.
Sustainable operating margin due to attractive electricity cost. Based on our estimates, PMETAL has a higher-than-average expected FY14E operating margin of 10.8% compared to its regional peers’ average FY14E margin of 4.5%. The margin advantage is due to the attractive electricity costs compared to other aluminium smelters in the region. We expect the high margin trend to be sustainable as the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) signed between PMETAL and Sarawak Energy (Sesco) in 2011 should be effective for another 22 years. Lastly, we note that PMETAL’s subsidiary Press Metal Bintulu (PMB), which operates the Samalaju smelter, may get an additional 5 years extension for its pioneer status upon expiry in Dec 17 (the current extension started Jan 13).
Trading Buy with a Target Price of RM8.87 based on a target Fwd. P/E of 14.5x on FY15E EPS of 61 sen. Our Fwd. P/E is based on a 5% premium to FBM Mid 70 Index FY15E Fwd. P/E of 13.8x. We believe our benchmark is appropriate as the average FBM Mid 70 (FBM70) market cap of RM4.6b is comparable to PMETAL’s current market cap of RM4.0b. Our premium is justified by strong FY14E-FY15E expected earnings growth of 91%-28%, well exceeding FBM70’s expected 16%-6% growth. At our current TP, we expect a potential total return of 24.1% (21.7% upside, 2.5% dividend yield) which warrants a trading buy recommendation.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
3930
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Posted by 3930 > 2014-09-08 11:56 | Report Abuse
today is t+4 off 2295.3 lots