Out of expection again.. This quarter report might be good but not next quarter. More than 6 hours all the pots are dead already. Bintulu plant has to be shutdown in order to rebuild the all the pots. It will take 1 year to resume back full operation. Some more neqative sales news again these couple months. I calculate the warrant probably only worth at the initial value. It looks good in FA but this disaster is unpredictable. No hope.. I have closed all already. Maybe on next year April 2016.
I have switched to eforce.. Eforce quarter report is out end of this month,. Handsome profit from pmetal. Eforce also just started. Not yet reach to the peak. Peak is at 2.00
Press Metal Berhad (PMETAL) announced that there was a fire incident at the group’s Samalaju smelting plant on 17th May 2015.
The cause of the fire and full impact of the incident is yet to be ascertained. However, based on a preliminary estimate, the impact is not expected to be substantial and it is adequately insured.
Comments
We were surprised with the news. Nonetheless, we are not overly concerned as it will not substantially impact the group’s financials. According to the management, the fire incident will have very minimal impact to the production in Samalaju plant as the disruption only affects a small area of the factory. Hence, we believe it will not lead to any major negative impact to PMETAL’s earnings.
Time to buy on weakness. We would also not be surprised if this news led to negative reactions to PMETAL’s share price today. In fact, PMETAL’s share price has already taken a beating recently, down by 16.3% MoM due to falling aluminium prices. We reaffirm our view that PMETAL’s fundamental remain intact given that: (i) the incident will not substantially impact the group, and (ii) we expect aluminium prices to recover in the near-mediumterm. Therefore, we believe this could be an opportunity for investors to accumulate on weakness. Furthermore, note that there is a high possibility that the stock may be included into the Shariah-compliant universe during the upcoming review in mid-2015, which should garner some support from Shariah funds.
Outlook
Remain bright in the near-medium term as we expect earnings growth from the new capacity to start kicking-in from January 2016 onwards.
We also reaffirm our aluminium price assumption at USD1,900/MT, as we expect aluminium prices to stabilise in the later part of 2H15 when demand is expected to recover, driven by growing usage of aluminium in the auto sector.
Forecast
Unchanged.
Rating
Maintain OUTPERFORM
Valuation
At current price level, the stock is relatively cheap, trading at only FY16E PER of 8.0x, significantly lower than that of FBM70 fwd. PER of 15.0x.
All said, we reiterate our TP of RM5.41, based on unchanged fwd. PER of 15.0x (in line with FBM70’s) on FY16E FD core EPS of 36.1 sen.
so, who knows, friday might have dead cat bouncing after some luck trying on falling dagger. anywhere, this PMETAL had become a conspiration counter. i am holding, but, the amount is only 50 lots, which i afford to hold till RM 2.00.
comments by 360capital were not without basis. aluminium price hit PM more than anything else. wonder why kenanga set latest price target at more than rm5.00.
Kenanga reported on very basic fa calculation. Main dropping not because of this plant shutdown. Billet demand is reducing. Ingot price also lousy. These factors are not included in their actual calculation.
Quarter report out. We see it again whether the profit is in full amount or not. If not something very wrong. More faster it drop. Then it really out of expectation again. Again and again hurting the price. So watchout la.
Drop la~ Drop more.. why worry? worry if you trade using the money you needed for living. Otherwise just hold it. Aluminum price drop is a good opportunity for the survival of the fittest. A chance to grab more market share. The fire loss will be mitigated by insurance. It's a one off event. Look at longer term and the potential of this company. Anyway, that's all. Go ahead and sell more so i can pick up at lower price. Thank you very much!
"Hence, in the interest of safety for the plant and its operations as well as the workers, the Company has decided to cease its operations ....................The Company estimates to re-start its operations by commencing the initial ramp-up for these pots within one month from now."
Kindly be advised that trading in the above PMETAL's securities has been halted with effect from 2.30 p.m., Thursday, 21 May 2015. Accordingly, all structured warrants relating to PMETAL have also be halted at the same time.
Trading in the above securities will resume with effect from 3.30 p.m., Thursday, 21 May 2015.
Your attention is drawn to the PMETAL's announcement dated 21 May 2015.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
洁杰绝
97 posts
Posted by 洁杰绝 > 2015-05-20 16:32 | Report Abuse
I really grab till no more bullets... wahahahahaha