As per mentioned in the previous post, CPO is expected to rise until December due to few factors as follow -
1- La Nina could disrupt soybean and other oilseeds supplies in 2021 2 -Weak CPO supply and current tight palm oil stocks limit downside with worker shortage issues 3- Stronger CPO demand as global economy recovers from the pandemics 4- Wider CPO price discount against other oil supportive of demand 5- CPO usage for biodiesel purpose could decline due to INSUFFICIENT from the government (Indonesia) or export levy in 2021
TSH's plantation located in Indonesia they sold their palm oil with indonesia price instead Malaysia MPOC's CPO price Indonesia government imposed CPO export levy US$ 55 per tonne and going to increase it further to US$ 60 per tonne. . TSH upcoming quarter report might show earning but export levy already took around 8% to 9% of their revenue. Besides,due to export levyIndonesia CPO price per tonne is lower than Malaysia price.
Palm oil plantation who located in Malaysia especially land bank in Sabah or Sarawak performance might better compare to those land bank in Indonesia
Indonesia tough operating environment.TSH oil mill's locality is in a sweet spot { favourable } can shipped directly at mill's jetty. Unlike others at Kalimantan Timur area no connectivity
Anyone know the "MONTHLY PRODUCTION FIGURES (MINING / PLANTATION / TIMBER)" obtained from Malaysiastock.biz for TSH, this number is only for Malaysia operation right?
Current PE is 32. After the results come out, PE will drop to 20s.. and final quarter will be around 10. Current price does not reflect current earnings. CPO at 3200.
Very informative article. You should know what shall do after read this. It also stated palm oil company in Indonesia doesn't face labour shortage issue there. https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/753109
Without prejudice - Labour & manpower issues has always plaque planter's in Peninsular Malaysia. in Sabah & Sarawak is less severe. Presence of undocumented migrant workers in both the States {Sabah & Sarawak} has somewhat offset the pressing needs
Indonesia is somewhat different with certain regions facing worker's shortages. Kalimantan Timur has workers related issues compared to Kalimantan Tengah area. Workers preference for certain areas and companies partly contributed to this shortages. Big established planter's do not have this issues only the smaller ones. In addition local workers are very parochial and protective against other migrant groups coming into their areas { Dayaks in Kalimantan}
Its fair. CNY is coming up. China mopped up world soybean supplies for the revival of pig farm feed. Palm oil buy is ongoing and expected to increase in view of CNY. Secondly, increased consumption in India is not just because of Deepavali. The covid cased have come down and the domestic economy is opening up as well. Withoit soybean oil available, Palm Oil is the only choice. CPO will hover above 3000 for at least till Feb March when the harvest of soybean starts. Indonesia is pressing for B40 and Malaysian Gov will want to keep current prices so that farmers will be happy. So, Malaysia will have to push for B20 at least.. china already foresaw the shortage and the Foreign minister cane to pledge buying 1.7 mio tonns for next 3 years.. means they foresee a continuous shortage when economies open up worldwide.
CPO price @ rm 3391 will definitely benefit TSH, further more TSH has alot of young mature trees which will produce more fresh fruits now and in near future, a 50 % surge in price is not a dream.
Today FGV announced its result with a much improved Q-o-Q profit.I am sure TSH will also show a similar result if not better especially in terms of profit margin.
KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 18): TSH Resources Bhd saw its third quarter ended Sept 30, 2020 (3QFY20) net profit skyrocket by nearly 300% following higher crude palm oil (CPO) and palm kernel (PK) prices.
Cumulative 3 Qtr result totalling 84.328 million { PBT} ending 30 September. 4qtr result forecast to be much higher than the 3Qtr result {34 Million} PBT
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Investorrr
647 posts
Posted by Investorrr > 2020-10-29 12:22 | Report Abuse
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/mpic-average-cpo-price-rm2800-tonne-2017