Posted by johoran > 2020-09-10 17:29 | Report Abuse

cpo 2825, company still make money. no need worry, fundamental still good

Posted by Boringguy > 2020-09-10 19:25 | Report Abuse

slow slow collect... drop again collect....current CPO price benefit to TSH... beside that COCO price also recover...last during 2017 they acquire ekowood company it will generate very good profit..

Posted by power88 > 2020-09-11 06:01 | Report Abuse

Now hopefully kwsp buy more

Posted by power88 > 2020-09-11 06:12 | Report Abuse

Director Tan , add 13,500,000 share 0.985-1.00

Posted by Investorrr > 2020-09-11 10:47 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/09/11/new-plantings-set-to-help-tsh-resources-grow

Posted by Investorrr > 2020-09-11 12:11 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/analysts-neutral-plantation-sector-after-jump-palm-oil-supply

Posted by greenland > 2020-09-11 18:47 | Report Abuse

HLIB Chye Wen Fei, based on your report, I have a few queries to your bosses.
1. You are basing your assumptions for the remaining parts of the year BUT do you know that we plantation companies sell forward and our sale is already locked in for shipment Dec 2020/Jan 2021.
2. India is gradually opening the hotel and restaurant sectors. The current level of consumption is still a far cry from India's normal consumption of 4million tonnes per year.
3. The current stockpile is only 1.7million tonnes. BUT are you aware that the rate of increase in consumption is picking up faster than 2019?
All facts available in the MPOC site.

Posted by johoran > 2020-09-11 20:08 | Report Abuse

KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 11): Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research has reiterated its "neutral" rating of the plantation sector after palm oil inventory closed marginally higher at 1.7 million tonnes in August as higher output and lower exports were partly offset by lower imports and higher domestic consumption.
Following this, the research house named TSH Resources Bhd as its top pick with a "buy" call and target price (TP) of RM1.14.

Posted by johoran > 2020-09-11 20:13 | Report Abuse

TA has maintained its “buy” recommendation on TSH with an unchanged target price of RM1.31.

Posted by johoran > 2020-09-11 20:15 | Report Abuse

TSH had an aggressive new planting programme in financial year 2014 (FY14) and FY15, which reached 2,800ha each year. Subsequently, the company slowed down new planting in FY16 to FY19 to a few hundred hectares each yer, to conserve cash and reduce its net gearing level.
As at end-2019, it had 57,400ha of unplanted and 42,100ha of planted land bank.
The recent disposal will reduce the group’s total planted and unplanted land bank to 42,000ha and 32,100ha respectively.
The land in Indonesia alone accounted for 85% of its total planted area.
“We believe the unplanted land bank of 32,100ha would provide some room for the group to expand its plantation footprint and be the engine of growth for future earnings.
“The expected disposal proceeds of around RM518mil will provide greater capacity for the group to accelerate the development of its remaining unplanted land in Indonesia.
“Based on our estimate, it can help the group to fund around 23,000ha-25,000ha of land, assuming the new planting cost to be around RM20,000-RM22,000 per ha.
“However, the new planting area could be lower since the group intends to pare down its existing borrowings to improve its gearing level, which stood at 0.83 times in FY19, ” said TA.
TSH’s aggressive planting in the past had enabled it to generally enjoy double-digit FFB production growth in the past 12 years, except for selected years.
Its oil palm age profile has improved significantly compared to five years ago.
While the company’s management is expecting a flattish FFB production growth this year, growth is expected to be in the range of 7% to 11% for FY21 and FY22.
More importantly, said TA, its CPO production cost (ex-mill) of around RM1,400 per tonne reflects the efficiency of the business.

Posted by johoran > 2020-09-11 20:15 | Report Abuse

ex-mill 1400.. so low

Posted by johoran > 2020-09-11 20:24 | Report Abuse

We maintain BUY on TSH Resources with an unchanged fair value of RM1.21/share. Our fair value for TSH is based on an FY21F PE of 25x.

Posted by johoran > 2020-09-11 20:24 | Report Abuse

Operationally, we have assumed that TSH’s FFB production would improve by 2.0% in FY20E (1HFY20: 5.2%) and 7.3% in FY21F. Unlike other plantation companies, TSH’s FFB production in 2HFY20 may soften compared to 2HFY19 as FFB yields weaken after last year’s robust productivity. In 2HFY19, TSH’s FFB production jumped by 7.0% YoY.
Due to a higher cost of wages, we think that TSH’s ex-mill cost of production would rise to RM1,490/tonne (FY19: 1,466/tonne) in Malaysia and RM1,750/tonne (FY19: RM1,723) in Indonesia in FY20E. TSH’s fertiliser costs are expected to be flat in FY20E.

Posted by johoran > 2020-09-11 20:27 | Report Abuse

LATEST TP
TA-1.31
AMINNVEST= 1.21
HLIB=1.14

Posted by johoran > 2020-09-11 20:31 | Report Abuse

Palm
Additional rains in Southeast Asia could boost palm oil production, while the industry could also benefit from lower output of rival soy oil, Tai said.
There has already been more rain in Southeast Asia, particularly in Sabah and Kalimantan, since June, said Ling Ah Hong, director of plantation consultant Ganling Sdn. La Nina’s impact on the palm crop would depend on how strong it is, Ling said.
“A weak to moderate La Nina is usually beneficial to palm production in the following year,” he said. “However, the heavy rains, if any, may cause immediate short-term disruption to harvesting and crop quality.”
Palm oil production usually declines in December and January, after rising in August and September, said Derom Bangun, chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Board. More rain in those typically drier months could be positive for monthly output, providing conditions aren’t extreme, he said.

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2020-09-14 15:22 | Report Abuse

Counter hardly moved. FCPO hit 3,000 mark but TSH stuck at this low level.

Posted by LuckyG > 2020-09-14 18:46 | Report Abuse

2892 only for nov cpo future . but up alot today

Posted by greenland > 2020-09-15 18:01 | Report Abuse

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/business/2020/09/15/indias-palm-oil-imports-expected-to-return-to-usual-volumes-this-month/

Posted by greenland > 2020-09-15 18:12 | Report Abuse

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/business/2020/09/15/indias-palm-oil-imports-expected-to-return-to-usual-volumes-this-month/

Posted by johoran > 2020-09-15 18:21 | Report Abuse

cpo 2941, very soon 3000

Posted by johoran > 2020-09-15 18:22 | Report Abuse

buy before late

Posted by johoran > 2020-09-15 18:22 | Report Abuse

52 Weeks Range:
0.56 - 1.59

Posted by johoran > 2020-09-15 18:22 | Report Abuse

1.59 soon

Posted by greenland > 2020-09-15 18:39 | Report Abuse

http://mpoc.org.my/monthly-palm-oil-trade-statistics-2020/

Posted by greenland > 2020-09-15 18:40 | Report Abuse

We can assume the demand to pick up steadily from now onwards. Price should stay at this level at least for the next 3 months

Posted by greenland > 2020-09-16 12:06 | Report Abuse

https://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/malaysias-sept-1-15-palm-oil-exports-rise-122-mm-its

Posted by Mabel > 2020-09-18 16:33 | Report Abuse

Hujan Emas Glove sedang bekembang
Hujan Emas Vaccine mula nak jadi
Hujan Emas Bandar Malaysia mula di sembang
Hujan Emas Sawit sudah berbunga berseri seri

Meow Meow Meow

Posted by zhexiangxd > 2020-09-18 18:39 | Report Abuse

jtiasa already breakout, when TSH gonna show its true colour? hehehe 1.25 faster come

Posted by greenland > 2020-09-19 11:28 | Report Abuse

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/news/palm-oil-set-for-8-weekly-rise-on-higher-soyoil-slower-output-growth-forecast/articleshow/78180069.cms

Posted by greenland > 2020-09-19 11:45 | Report Abuse

In my past experience in the last oil CPO boom, the months building up to it felt very frighteningly similar to this round. The stocks were very sluggish despite the rise in CPO.
1. But the last peak on CPO in 2016 Dec was 3200RM/Ton. We are positioning to cross the 3200 very soon.
2. Most of the other peaks 2008, 2011 all happens around Dec/Jan. Therefore, we should be prepared to hold for a breakout at the end of the year.
3. Given the current CPO prices and the current FFB production, TSH should record another record earnings for the next 2 quarters forward.
4. Retained earnings should be sufficient to declare another round of bonus issue. Why? Looking at the pairing down on borrowings lately, TSH has bigger plans to forgo the matured and maturing plantations sold to KLK. Currently, it is not the TOP 5 plantation stock in Malaysia yet. So, in order for TSH to go international and make itself a full fledge Oleochemical player, such as IOI, KLK, United Plantation, they will first have to increase their paid up to tap international cheaper funds.
5. My judgement is that TSH will need to move very fast from now onwards as the window to tapping cheap funds might be bottoming out.

Posted by greenland > 2020-09-19 11:48 | Report Abuse

Besides, I suspect, some major acquisition might be in the pipeline already. TSH has not had any major corporate moves for a long time.

Posted by greenland > 2020-09-19 11:51 | Report Abuse

Its stake in Innoprise Plantation has delivered very strong results as well. TSH is a very value for money proxy to the Palm Oil counter. ROI is concern.

Posted by power88 > 2020-09-20 20:52 | Report Abuse

KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 20): Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Sept 1-20 rose 9.4% to 1,035,041 tonnes from 946,338 tonnes shipped Aug 1-20, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said on Sunday.

Posted by StarDust > 2020-09-21 16:26 | Report Abuse

another conman?

Posted by power88 > 2020-09-21 17:30 | Report Abuse

（吉隆坡21日讯）IJM种植（IJM Plantations Bhd）指出，原棕油供不应求可能会推高食用油价格，这有利于生产商。
该公司在股东常年大会后发布声明表示，棕油生产商将能够“驾驭价格波动”。
该公司指出，原棕油价格已从今年5月的低点每吨2000令吉反弹至每吨3000令吉，分析员将价格上涨归因于库存补充、棕油库存水平下降和竞争性食用油价格上涨。
尽管如此，IJM种植表示，对截至2021年3月31日财年（2021财年）前景持谨慎乐观态度。
“尽管上述因素可能是看涨的，但在年底前库存水平上升的压力下，价格总有可能回落，这与棕油产量可能超过总出口和消费的情况一致。”
“然而，最近的情况显示，许多种植者确实存在严重的工人短缺，从而妨碍了他们的经营，特别是在季节高峰期间，影响了从树木中恢复的作物，为当前的原棕油价格提供了支持。”
与此同时，2021财年的整体农作物产量和原棕油产量可能会低于2020财年。
该公司预计，今年的作物产量将会下降，因为受到大马和印尼棕油种植区在2019年8月和11月的干旱天气延迟影响，加上种植者减少了化肥投入。
劳动力短缺还将影响作物生产，特别是在大马，因为这会妨碍即将到来的生产高峰季节的收获，整个行业的作物产量预计将损失很大。
许多工厂的原棕油产量也会降低，这是由于干燥天气导致授粉效率降低后，导致油榨取率较低。
此外，9月至11月发生La Niña（潮湿天气）的可能性也从之前的30%增加到了60%。
IJM种植说：“今年年底出现的La Niña现象也将进一步抑制农作物增产的前景。在持续的雨季，从收割到作物撤离以及棕榈产品质量的操作都将受到阻碍。”
尽管如此，全球对棕油的需求仍将复苏，因市场放宽管制，且中国和印度等主要消费国为补充不断减少的库存而进行提振市场的采购。
在生物燃料中使用更多的棕油，特别是在印尼，也将有助于降低库存和提高价格。

Posted by power88 > 2020-09-21 17:31 | Report Abuse

KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 21): Tighter supply and higher demand for crude palm oil (CPO) are likely to push prices of the edible oil up in favour of producers, according to IJM Plantations Bhd.
In a statement following its annual general meeting (AGM) today, the upstream plantation company said palm oil producers will be able to “ride the price wave”.
The planter noted that CPO prices had rallied to RM3,000 per tonne from a year-to-date (YTD) low of RM2,000 per tonne in May, with analysts attributing the higher prices to stock replenishment, lower palm oil inventory levels and rising prices of competing edible oils.
Nonetheless, IJM Plantations said it is adopting a cautiously optimistic outlook for the financial year ending March 31, 2021 (FY21).
“While the above factors can be bullish, there could always potentially be a pullback in prices amid pressure from rising stock levels towards year end, in line with palm oil production potentially outweighing total exports and consumption.
“However, recent revelations that many planters are in a real and substantial shortage of workers, thus hampering their operations, especially during the seasonal peak affecting crop recovery from the trees, rendering support to present CPO prices,” it said.
At the same time, it noted that overall crop production and CPO production in FY21 may end up lower than in FY20.
The planter said crop production is expected to be lower this year due to delayed effects of the dry weather in August and November 2019 across palm oil cultivation areas in Malaysia and Indonesia, combined with reduced fertiliser input among growers.
The labour shortage will also affect crop production, especially in Malaysia, by impeding harvesting in the coming peak production season, with industry-wide losses in crop yields expected to be high.
CPO production of many mills is also expected to be lower given lower oil extraction rates (OERs) due to poor bunch formation following lower pollination efficiency due to the dry weather.
In addition, the likelihood of La Niña (wet weather) from September to November has increased to 60% from 30% previously.
“The reality of a La Nina at the end of the year would also further dampen any prospects of higher crop production. During the incessant wet season, operations from harvesting to crop evacuation as well as palm product quality will be hampered,” IJM Plantations viewed.
That being said, global demand for palm is poised to recover due to easing lockdowns and major consumers such as China and India making market-boosting purchases to replenish dwindling stock.
The usage of more palm oil in biofuels, particularly in Indonesia, will also serve to lower stocks and increase prices.

Posted by LuckyG > 2020-09-21 17:37 | Report Abuse

tsh can make money when cpo price is 2400-2500. why worry so much when cpo price is above 2800 ??? is cheap sales . just collect !

Posted by Valgrovest > 2020-09-22 08:47 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/tighter-supply-and-higher-demand-push-cpo-prices-%E2%80%94-ijm-plantations

same for TSH too...

Posted by johoran > 2020-09-22 18:27 | Report Abuse

CPO closed 2956

Posted by johoran > 2020-09-22 18:27 | Report Abuse

tomorrow will up, back to 1.1 level

Posted by greenland > 2020-09-24 17:23 | Report Abuse

should buy on dip. Nothing to worry.

Posted by Happy Investing > 2020-09-24 22:37 | Report Abuse

palm oil future dropping these few days, could it be one of the reason for TSH's price drop?

Posted by terence775 > 2020-09-28 15:36 | Report Abuse

Yes, definitely. All plantation stocks follow FCPO. Even if not directly, they will follow somewhat.

Posted by johoran > 2020-09-28 20:59 | Report Abuse

KMloong result good

With the recent volatile movements in CPO commodity price and sharp recovery from a level near RM2,000 per MT in May 2020 to the current level of above RM2,900 per MT, the management is of the view that CPO price could hold above RM2,700 per MT in near term. However, CPO price is generally susceptible to fluctuation of currency exchange rate, demand and supply of commodity and import policies of major importing countries.
With the impressive performance for the first six months which has surpassed the profit made in the whole of the preceding year, we foresee the Group’s performance for the financial year 2021 will be good.

Posted by Investorrr > 2020-09-29 12:16 | Report Abuse

correction phase is deemed over

.consolidation and base building around 0.97 to 1.00.

Posted by Mabel > 2020-09-29 22:17 | Report Abuse

CPO prices has bottom out at RM2757 at up again at RM 2822s level .., price firming uptrend.

Malaysian has Become the Top Palm Oil Supplier to China (Malaysia even beat Indonesia World No 1 Palm Oil Producer)

Malaysia’s palm oil exports to China increased by 31.9% or 316,400 MT over last year to 1.31 million MT from January to June 2020, while Indonesia shipped 1.28 million MT of PO to China, decreased by 42.7% or 956,400 MT. As a result, PO market share commanded by Malaysia in China up to June this year rose from 30.7% held last year to 50.3%, and Indonesia’s share slid to 49.2% from 69.2% for the same period in comparison. Malaysia has become the top PO supplier once again since 2015.

Posted by Mabel > 2020-09-30 08:47 | Report Abuse

There are several risks factors on any Plantation earnings estimates, price target and rating. Key risks to the palm oil sector are:

(i) weather anomalies resulting in poorer-than-expected output growth -*Let's hope for a good weather the next coming 3 months*.

(ii) lower than-expected CPO price achieved – *On Target and currently CPO is Up trending*

(iii) negative policies imposed by import countries – *Positive*. The exemption of CPO export duty by the government of Malaysia till Dec 2020 will be positive for CPO exports (especially to India) and will help support CPO price which is expected to be under pressure in 3Q20 due to the anticipated stockpile build-up amid seasonal production recovery

(iv) unfriendly policies imposed by the Malaysian and Indonesian government on upstream or downstream segments – *Already factored on India’s move to restrict the importation of refined palm oil*. This will result in quicker build-up of MPOB stockpile when output recovers from 2Q20, and cap CPO price upside

(v) sharply lower crude oil prices which makes palm biodiesel demand not viable – *Brent has already breached USD 40*

(vi) weaker competing oil prices (like soybean and rapeseed- *On Target*. Alternative Oil Prices is on the rise which make Palm Oil very attractive.

Meow Meow Meow

Posted by veelucky > 2020-10-02 17:38 | Report Abuse

Cpo 2914

Posted by Investorrr > 2020-10-08 12:17 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/tsh-resources-may-be-staging-rebound-says-rhb-retail-research

Posted by power88 > 2020-10-09 07:31 | Report Abuse

"Look out for a La Nina-induced price rally from January 2021 with soyoil leading the way," said Dorab Mistry, director of Indian consumer goods company Godrej International.

Vegetable oil prices next year should be higher due to improved demand and tighter supply of soft oils such as soyoil and sunflower oil, Mistry said.

Thomas Mielke, the executive director of Oil World, forecast Indonesian crude palm oil price in January-June 2021 would rise to US$700 a tonne.

Malaysia's benchmark crude palm oil contract has slumped about 7% so far this year, to RM2,888 (US$695.90) a tonne on Thursday, as the COVID-19 pandemic hurt demand.

Losses were pared by a recent rally in edible oil prices due to stockpiling by top buyer China for food security measures.

The rally in sunflower oil due to a lower crop has also been making soyoil and palm oil attractive to price sensitive buyers.

China's stocking policy is expected to continue with fund buying and, combined with problems in Argentina's soybean crushing, could further increase palm prices, Mielke said.

"If consumer buying plus funds buying (come together), it is possible that we temporarily reach RM3,200," he said.

Argentina's soy crushing volume is set to drop around 9.5% this year, as growers in the world's top exporter of processed soymeal and soyoil hoard beans due to unfavourable prices and taxes.