If we look at first half comparison forex is only 3 cent eps extra. And this adjustment give the same earning as last year taking into consideration of high inflation and min wages. Conclusion is fpi is able to sustain the profitability even at high inflation and material environment. That mean they have achieve efficiency and better pricing to offset with raising cost. Revenue is also growing. All this is a good indication
On top and above a record quarter profit by a wide margin, year to date ended 30 June 2022 - recorded higher revenue of RM503.2M, an increase of 14% from the previous year's corresponding period.
Given its usual 50% dividend payout, we can expect expect it is going to declare another 20sen dividend end o f its FYs. Let's do some maths. Given its 1H EPS of 20sen, we can expect the company to report an EPS of 40sen easily (will be more if RM weakening toward RM4.50/ USD level). With 20sen dividend on the card, the yield will be 6% with PE of 8.12x (based on RM3.25). Still relatively cheap. TP can go to RM4 (assume PE of 10x)
Company current valuation is very low, if you remove 270M cash from market cap, we will be looking at PE of 5.3x. Hope management will initiate share buyback now when the price is really depressed. It will offset the ESOS plan awarded last year and add more value to long-term shareholder compared to dividend payout.
Technically, it has completed its consolidation phase. Start to break-out toward RM3.40 - RM3.60. Short term traders should start to load in before too late
In current environment of inflation and reduce consumer demand, it is expected to affect company in electronic consumer segment however FPI might be different, WHY?
1) inflation of labour cost has been offset with strong USD, 2nd qtr USD strengthen from 4.2to 4.40 and FPI benefit from it due to selling price in USD, reflected as RM12mil gain in forex. In the 2nd qtr. while material price like wood and copper has come down a lot will give a net positive margin to FPI.
2) reduce consumer demand, YES... by all mean we all know it however FPI benefit from the shift of order from CHINA to Malaysia due to 2 reason: A) China zero covid policy has disable productivity therefore order come to Malaysia, Ronald, the key customer of FPI has production factory in Malaysia and China, as we know order flow from China to Malaysia especially on the Ronald keyboard production segment due to restriction in China covid policy and uncertain. B) FPI customer is mostly Japanese company and the market is for US and EU, therefore due to geopolitical situation, it is benefiting FPI from the shift of order from China to Malaysia FPI).
In summary margin is protected with strong USD and softer commodity price while demand from order is not effected by consumer reduce demand as offset with FPI customer production footprint shift from China to Malaysia.
FPI is cash rich and generous in dividend payout therefore it is a good proxy to hedge against inflation, weakening of RM and dividend against interest rate hike.
Please take your own discretion decision and it is my opinion from the deep drive analysis.
Based on 50% payout ratio, FPI FY 2022 should declare at least 25 cents dividend per share. Please be patient to wait for another 6 months to get your reward.
Record quarterly revenue and profit. FPI's revenue is set to exceed 1b in 2022. FPI has been fast growing. Revenue has almost tripled since 2016, and net profit has grown many times over due to improved margin. However, some caution is warranted given that 1. Traditionally Q3 is a strong quarter anyway (though the pattern failed in 2021, probably due to lockdown effects) 2. Forex gain is a record RM18.3m . After excluding such non-core profit, this is a great but still not a record quarter. 3. What is the market outlook with Europe and probably US too getting into a recession? The management mentions the downward revision to demand outlook
I'm not pouring cold water as I like FPI and believe it's well managed. However 3Q is a good quarter for many other companies too. Below are the some of the headlines from today The Edge paper
MSIC 3Q net profit more than doubles ... Kelington's 3Q net earnings double on healthy order book ... Dayang Enterprise 3Q net profit surges on increased work orders SP Setia's 3Q profit surges over six times ... Mega First posts 34% rise in 3Q profit... Higher gross profit, finance income lift Gas Malaysia 3Q net profit by 53%
I guess many companies have performed well because of low base effects due to severe lockdown a year ago. The Malaysian GDP grew by 14.2% in this quarter. The test will come in the next few quarters as successive rate hike amidst high inflation dent the global economy.
But none of the above company has net cash, above 6% dividend yield and consistent grow without the impact of commodity price. This should be weighted into consideration as well
With a PE ratio of 6.6, FPI is currently hugely undervalued. "Irrational undervaluation as dramatic as this is often a short-term anomaly. The timing for buyback is still ripe but the opportunity will not last forever." "With such an enormous valuation gap and such a massive amount of cash on the balance sheet", we hope the board (who does not appear to have much skin in the game) will move aggressively to buy-back FPI share and add more value to shareholder.
My Letter to the board: hope more long term shareholders can follow suit and convince the board to initiate share buyback. "Dear Sir/Madam, I'm a heavy investor in FPI and would like to increase my investment. The past few years FPI has shown phenomenal earning and cash flow growth. Most of it can be attributed to good management. However, there are concerns among shareholders that the share price has not moved up in tandem. ESOS exercise has not been kind to shareholders - most employees and management are immediately exercising their ESOS options once it is made available.
With a PE ratio of 6.6, FPI is hugely undervalued. I would like to request the board to initiate immediate share buyback. Share buyback is only recommended if the share price is irrationally low. "Irrational undervaluation as dramatic as this is often a short-term anomaly. The timing for buyback is still ripe but the opportunity will not last forever." "With such an enormous valuation gap and such a massive amount of cash on the balance sheet", we hope the board (who does not appear to have much skin in the game) will move aggressively to buy-back FPI shares.
I sincerely pray the board will accept my recommendation in the spirit it is given - not specifically to increase the share price but to add more value to the loyal shareholders.
FPI dividend payout ratio is quite High, average 50% for last 5years. If Management used profit to buyback shares, dividend payout ratio will drop, hence Dividend will get smaller and smaller. Many mutual funds holding FPI might Sell bcos of lesser Dividend, net, net equal Zero--- buyback push price up but Bankers start Dumping, my 2 cents
FPI is an interesting stock, which, as highlighted by others above, appears to be trading at a deep discount. The stock has paid a dividend every year without fail at least since 1994. And, has increased the quantum of dividend paid since 2016. Based on TTM, and a PER for 10.5, the price should probably be RM 5.20 now. That said, I do have one concern, however. Despite improving earnings, the OCF and FCF appears to have dropped quite a lot last Q. Does anyone know why?
@Thirai, Net cash from operating activities in Q1 to Q3 were minus RM10m, RM58m and RM14m. Working capital continued to grow (by RM31m, RM10m, RM33m) in line with growing revenue. Subtracting purchase of PPE, which was just a few million, quarterly FCF was minus RM10m, RM56m and RM14m. Compared against previous years, both OCF and FCF hold up well. TTM EPS of 49 sen can be misleading as it greatly benefits from forex gain. Excluding such gain, core 12m EPS is only about 35 sen. Then the current share price is about 9 to 10 times historical PE, which is close to the past 5-year average. Besides the market may be worried about economic outlook at developed markets like US and Europe. Recession may trim demand and therefore revenue, which has grown a lot over the last few years. Decrease in revenue may reverse the operational leverage and compress margin. In fact the share price of many exporters are also not doing well too. That is despite some have continued to report good earnings until now.
@ Thirai Thiraviam, OCF in Q3 2022 was RM62m. Total Cash and cash equivalent at end of Q3, 2022 was RM292m compared with Q3,2021 which was RM214m. I expect total cash to exceed RM320m for year 2022 based on conservative estimate - Q3 net change in working capital was (RM33m).
A few comments on FX gain:- 1. Assuming earning for Q4,2022 is the same as Q4, 2021, 2022 will be a record year even if FX gain is stripped away. Just remember to strip the FX gain of previous years too. It is not a one-off item. Also remember FX gain shown in financial report is pre-tax 2. Will there be the same amount of FX gain this year if MYR hovers around the same range? It is anyone's guess. 3. Even if FX gain is a one-off item (which it is not), the potential FX gain for 2022 was above 20M, around 2.3% of market-cap. This amount can be used for dividend payout, share buy-back or CAPEX. End of the day the shareholder benefit.
A quick note on PE - do you remove FX gain from earning? Do you remove net cash from market cap? Each to his own. If you remove net cash from market cap, PE is less than 4.5. So we are looking at a PE range between 4.5 to 10 - all depends how you want to cut it.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
EeRickLee0714
32 posts
Posted by EeRickLee0714 > 2022-06-29 16:46 | Report Abuse
but overall FPI is good lahh steady business