Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-13 23:23 | Report Abuse

I do not have evidence that FPI did not benefit from Sonos, but based on the revenue I believe so. I didn't see exploding growth of revenue in 2022.

Posted by pinnaclegrade > 2023-04-14 10:32 | Report Abuse

I trust the management to pivot, also good dividend yield to ride through the waves. Reward outweigh risk for me

Posted by kwteoh > 2023-04-14 14:50 | Report Abuse

Hi Sardin,
Looks like you hv reliable source, nice to hv those valuable infos. Btw, Wistron is holding FPI 27% share, and some contracts will awarded to FPI, isn't it? Wish to hear fr u. Thanks

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-14 22:21 | Report Abuse

Hi Kwteoh, you're right that Wistron holds FPI shares. Wistron used to give some business to FPI, but contribution from Wistron has gradually reduce for the past 3 years (this is a public info you can get from Annual report). Why isn't possible for Wistron to take back a good business that she had once before awarded to its associated company (FPI) "to reward her shareholders"? If you as a Wistron's major shareholder and you win Sonos' contract through your own effort, why share it with people when you have already built your capacity to DIY?

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-14 22:24 | Report Abuse

Only when you can't take down that buffalo alone then only you look for a partner to do it, right? You look for a partner or associated company only when this is more profitable than you doing it alone, at least this is what normal shareholders think.

Posted by kwteoh > 2023-04-16 15:58 | Report Abuse

Hi Sardin, yes, it make sense; thanks for your sharing 'bro', do u think FPI will declare special dividend, as they hv so much cash in hand (I guess the wealthiest EMS in KLSE)
and looks like they are not going to hv huge capex in any near future, What's ur views?

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-16 18:19 | Report Abuse

Not likely to declare special dividend this year because the CEO mentioned before that they do not wish to increase the frequency of paying dividend in order to save cost. But we should not exclude the possibility of such corporate proposal in coming years. And of course, I will give this proposal a warm welcome.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-17 10:55 | Report Abuse

Technical rebound

Posted by cwc1981 > 2023-04-28 12:20 | Report Abuse

Thanks for the dividend FPI.

Posted by kavirteoh93 > 2023-04-29 16:39 | Report Abuse

i was purchase at price at rm 1.3 XD

Posted by donald770 > 2023-05-04 20:50 | Report Abuse

Wisron Corp in India is facing problems n quitting supply Apple. Does this affect Fpi?

Posted by donald770 > 2023-05-04 20:52 | Report Abuse

To me this is bad news for Fpi. Your take?

Posted by Dhando > 2023-05-05 11:11 | Report Abuse

It is actually good news as Wistron price has more than doubled the past 6 months - from 26.8 TWD last November to 49.55 TWD today. The plant was sold to Tata for more than USD$600M.

Posted by donald770 > 2023-05-06 12:10 | Report Abuse

Dhando, is Fpi a good price to purchase now? Your information is useful to me.

Posted by Dhando > 2023-05-07 13:42 | Report Abuse

donald770, as most value stocks it is difficult to predict the price movement in the short term. If you have a long term view, I think it is a good buy. But please do your own research as I could be wrong. Anyway the pros and cons below:-
Pros:
- Wistron as a 27% stake. It would assist the company and will not let it go under. This can be viewed as a moat.
- Very low valuation with PE < 7. A lot lower if you minus net cash from price
- Conservative management (conserve cash, do not take unnecessary risk or diversify unnecesarily, etc.)
- Low CAPEX , yearly equipment expenses are low
- High ROIC >20%. A lot higher if you minus cash
- Consistent Revenue, FCF, Earning, and Equity growth the past 7 years (>10% per year)
- Uninterrupted dividend payment for more than 20 years (perhaps 30 years)
- Net cash position >300M (43% of market cap)

Cons:-
- Customer concentration - only 3 main customers that contribute more than 10% revenue.
- Low CAPEX (not a huge moat, competitor might encroach easily)
- Conservative management (reluctant to buyback share even at this low valuation and only one time dividend payment)
- Yamaha is replacing Sony as one of the big customers. Not sure Yamaha can provide the same size revenue. My information is based on US import data. I could be wrong here.
- Q1 '23 might not be great (subsequent quarters will be better - I think but could be wrong)

Posted by donald770 > 2023-05-08 05:10 | Report Abuse

Got it, Dhando.

Posted by pinnaclegrade > 2023-05-08 13:46 | Report Abuse

FPI's Price to Earnings Growth Ratio < 1 , lots of upside potential. PEG Ratio = 0.18 (may have upside potential)
[6.48 divide by 35 approximately]

Posted by Stirmungle > 2023-05-10 17:07 | Report Abuse

Hi Dhando, FPI doesn't just export to US, am I right? How about other market like Europe, Japan, etc.?

Posted by Dhando > 2023-05-11 09:43 | Report Abuse

You are right. FPI export to a lot of other countries too. Unfortunately I do not have that data. As such my view is narrow and limited to just US import only.
Anyway, overall I think FPI is a well run company.

Posted by pinnaclegrade > 2023-05-11 15:26 | Report Abuse

Hi Dhando, may I know your what is your average price for FPI? Mine is 2.828 ..

Posted by Dhando > 2023-05-11 17:34 | Report Abuse

3.19

Posted by pinnaclegrade > 2023-05-11 17:42 | Report Abuse

probably can start averaging down, I started buying from 3.25 lol

Posted by Stirmungle > 2023-05-11 23:05 | Report Abuse

Hi Dhando, I'd like to correct that Wistron contributes only 10.5% of the total revenue according to annual report FY 2022, not 27%.
May I know how long have you been using that US import data and so far in actual case do you think it helps you to do good estimation?

Posted by Sardin > 2023-05-12 12:00 | Report Abuse

1) How much EPS you think FPI will deliver for 2023 Q1?
2) How much EPS for 2023 Q1 would be enough to satisfy your expectation?
I will update and share my view by next Friday, if I do not forget. :)

Posted by Dhando > 2023-05-12 14:31 | Report Abuse

Two different things:-
1. Wistron has 27% share of FPI
2. Wistron contribute 10.5% revenue to FPI

You can find US import data below:
https://www.seair.co.in/us-import/e-formosa-prosonic-industries-bhd.aspx
The import data gives a very rough estimation, as it only provide information on US import and not other countries.
To get updated and not 1-2 months delayed data, you will need to purchase the service.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-05-12 16:04 | Report Abuse

Price too attractive today. Stop thinking about how good this stock is or you as a fundamental investor if you don't buy some at this price and but bought at price a lot higher before this. W.B. said if you are not going to buy more when the price drops heftily then don't buy it at all in the beginning.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-05-12 16:07 | Report Abuse

If you have been watching this stock... and following this blog... and you think this stock is good... and you had the intention to buy... I don't know what are you waiting for...

Posted by Sardin > 2023-05-12 16:09 | Report Abuse

After asking yourself these questions and looking back at yourself, you'll understand yourself better.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-05-12 21:27 | Report Abuse

Hi Dhando, after looking at the US import data, what are the good insight that you could draw from there? I'm not lazy to look at it myself but just want to know how other great minds think.

Posted by Dhando > 2023-05-13 10:41 | Report Abuse

My best guess based on limited US import data:-
- Last Sony shipment was on Aug,'22. It was also the biggest export qtr of Sony speakers. Q4, '22 inventory went down due to Sony inventory clearance
- Revenue attributed to Yamaha guitar amplifier is slightly more than half of Sony revenue. But I believe margin should be higher as guitar amplifier is a niche product.
If forex gain/loss is excluded, Q3,'22 was not that great, and Q4,'22 was not bad. Briefly, EPS excluding forex gain/loss and one-off prosperity tax were:-
Q4 = 8.6cents
Q3 = 10.2
Q2 = 7.7
Q1 = 6.7
In fact Q4 was better than Q2 and Q1. Anyway with PE=6, there is limited downside.
Exclusion - I'm still learning and could be wrong. Please double-check what I mentioned above and inform me if I'm wrong.

Posted by Vincent8864 > 2023-05-13 10:43 | Report Abuse

What is expected dividends payout ?

Posted by Sardin > 2023-05-13 18:02 | Report Abuse

Hi Vincent8864, to be conservative, just assume 21 sen.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-05-13 18:18 | Report Abuse

Hi Dhando, did you use the paid service?
Your 2022 Q1-Q4 EPS interpretation is about the same as mine. Unfortunately your averge price is higher.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-05-13 18:30 | Report Abuse

The very recent sell down especially yesterday is not likely from "early informed", unlike what was suspected before the announcement of Q4 result. This is because they would have already jumped off the boat long before and don't have to wait until now. More likey this time it is caused by "scared uninformed" and those who excercised share options but somehow failed to sell at good prices.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-05-13 18:33 | Report Abuse

It could also be partially due to more expensive finance cost to hold the shares as BNM had just raised interest rate few days ago.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-05-13 18:41 | Report Abuse

It is very understandable if 2023 achieve slightly less than 2021 and 2022, say 10% less revenue and profit. This is because 2021 and 2022 were an unacceptional years with lots of one-off events. A performance that is 10% or even 15% less would be still an excellent result.

Posted by donald770 > 2023-05-13 20:52 | Report Abuse

We r lucky to have access to information through our friends.

Posted by donald770 > 2023-05-13 20:52 | Report Abuse

We r lucky to have access to information through our friends.

Posted by donald770 > 2023-05-13 20:52 | Report Abuse

We r lucky to have access to information through our friends.

Posted by donald770 > 2023-05-13 20:52 | Report Abuse

We r lucky to have access to information through our friends.

Posted by donald770 > 2023-05-13 20:52 | Report Abuse

We r lucky to have access to information through our friends.

Posted by donald770 > 2023-05-13 20:52 | Report Abuse

We r lucky to have access to information through our friends.

Posted by donald770 > 2023-05-13 20:53 | Report Abuse

We r lucky to have access to information through our friends.

Posted by pinnaclegrade > 2023-05-15 11:45 | Report Abuse

Just buy & hold over a long period of time, can't go wrong

Posted by Sardin > 2023-05-15 13:58 | Report Abuse

Next Q EPS 6.2 sen to 8 sen. More likely to be around 7 to 8 sen.

Posted by cwc1981 > 2023-05-24 10:04 | Report Abuse

Looks like going to stuck forever. Haizzz

Posted by curiousq > 2023-05-24 10:23 | Report Abuse

OMG!! going to report best qr??

Posted by pinnaclegrade > 2023-05-24 10:34 | Report Abuse

panic selling today for some reason..

Posted by troy88 > 2023-05-24 11:03 | Report Abuse

warning signs already appeared since last QR

Posted by Sardin > 2023-05-24 12:49 | Report Abuse

I believ it is due to bad news of another subsidiary of Wistron, not related to FPI.