Why no research house tracking FPi after so many years ? Vs PIE and Scope, which one of the company u guys think will have more solid and sustainable growth going forward for the next 4-5 years?
Halo. I think it is not the yield that is critical. It is the earnings/order book sustainability and growth prospect for the next years. For FPi, the management doesn't disclose much thus not much funds have any first hand information which always keep market in balance.
A few quick notes:- 1. FPI management has always been very conservative in their projection and disclosure. FPI's Earning, Dividend, FCF and Revenue has been growing at a CAGR above 20% (/ year) the past 7 years. The management never projected the growth in any previous AGMs or reports. It is up to you to decide if this is good or bad. 2. With current low PE valuation, there is little downside risk and significant upside potential. You get future growth free of charge. PE < 8 simply means no future earning growth projection is included at current price. 3. FPI's Year 2022 Revenue, Dividend, FCF and Earning is expected to be at least 18% higher than year 2021 even if you assume Q4 results are the same as Q4,2021.
FPI's performance in the short-term will be ultimately relying on the sales of the end product of its 3 major customers. In the long-term, in addition to that it will also include its ability to secure new customers or projects with reasonable profit margin. The future of the industry where FPI is participating is bright. However, the long-term success of FPI depends on its strength compares to other contracted manufacturers. Lack of transparency in this area may hinder quite a lot of investors from taking the risk to invest and hence the low PE.
I could be wrong but I think FPI have 4 major customers:- 1. Wistron 2. Sony 3. Roland 4. Yamaha - This is a new customer and will drive 2023 revenue growth
I estimate: 2022 Q4 EPS is 7.xx sen due to slow down of customers' sales dividend is 25 sen fair price is RM 3.57 FPI share price after 2022 Q4 result will be more stable than before, fluctuating around the fair price
only company finance people who do forex hedging will know whether there is forex gain/loss, but since it is a hedge, so even there is forex losses it will be off-setted by the gain in sales price...but in Q4 i don't foresee forex losses as the company sell USD first to lock the rate...as MYR strengthen in Q4 after change government, i am seeing there is forex gain instead. but a hedge is still a hedge, any forex gain will be off-setted by lower sales profit when company changed their USD back to MYR...what we shud be see is how the company perform in term of revenue and core profit rather than focus on forex gain/loss
Its an undervalue stock.. Net cash company which pay good dividend.. But need patience... Famous value investor, "Coldeye" also invest in FPI for many years
With wistron the controlling shareholder, their business will grow larger and larger.. Wistron is the world’s third-largest contract manufacturer of laptops and other devices could channel new businesses to FPI given the Taiwanese group’s large scale of operations.
The global portable Bluetooth speakers market attained a value of USD 7.2 billion in 2022. The global portable Bluetooth speaker market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.4% in the forecast period of 2023-2028 to attain a value of USD 14.5 billion by 2028.
The easy and very conservative way to calculate the intrinsic value is to look at the gap between the current PE and average PE the past 5 years. PE in the past has been around 10. Intrinsic value is (Past PE) * (Current Price)/ (Current PE) = 10 *3.53 / 7.18 = RM4.9. Anyway, we hope reversion to the mean happens soon. As FPI is a growth company, I believe the above calculation is too conservative. The actual PE should be much higher than 12x. This PE can only be achieved if share buy-back is initiated or institutional investor put FPI in their radar.
Some people are scared. There are lots of small shareholders in this counter and therefore price is more volatile. Current price is fair if one wants to buy, althought not "wonderful". I think the chances of price getting lower is smaller compare to the possibility of going up further. Upside opportunity is higher than downside risk.
Since early February, already pushed up and selling everyday from there.. Later a false breakout of the pennant to 3.6 9 and selling from there again...
No one expected 13M forex loss. Really disappointing Q4 results. Some good news: 1. Cash and cash equivalent up 36% to 361M from 265M in year 2021 2. Earning up 9%, revenue up 4.8% on yearly basis
I don't think so. Probably a temporary setback due to fear and confusion. But price will quickly stable between 3.30 and 3.50. If you study back a few of previous quarter report, you'll find out that earning without counting forex loss or gain is quite stable in the range of 7.xx to 10.xx sen per share, including 2022 Q4. Those who studied carefully won't get surprised and do panic sell. But there are groups of people who thought 12.xx and 17.xx sen quarter EPS were purely driven by customer order and projected very high growth rate and rate the stock at RM 5++ or RM 7++ might be caught in the trap that they setup for themselves. These people might be panic due to over position in this stock and got into a panic. The shares will change hand from these people to conservative investors.
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Posted by pantor > 2023-02-02 21:18 | Report Abuse
Eps 15 sen and dividend 25 sen. Just a guess..