Based on the readings on the comments made in i3, most are unable to make "independent decision", i.e. they have no choice but to follow this guru or that guru or unable to do "adequate homework. Of course, there is also stockist/syndicates at play. Average volume for past few months is about 1-2m, today (11m, half day) and the other day (28m).
Some are also making "careless" remarks. But, if we look at the situation rationally, the current situation (volume > 10m) is really great for "prospective buyers" and "ESOS participants" (employee is smiling). They are smiling because, they can buy at about 19% discount from the peak price, and make more money when they grow the company. Otherwise, the ESOS is useless for them if the Company do not manage to grow at a reasonable rate.
As for the amount given for the proposed ESOS, it is also quite high, in percentage (>10%), but I believe it is also guided by SC or Bursa guidelines (within the law). Imagine, if the company is RM610m (@ RM2.75), 10% is RM61m. How many employee have such amount other than the MD (even MD is not paid more than RM2m a year). So how are they going to pick up the ESOS, even though it is selling at a discount of 10% to them?
Last but not least, for information only, at RM2.75 less net cash of 32sen and dividend 7 sen, the company you are paying is RM2.36 or RM610m. Average profit next 3 years about RM100m. Looks ok. Will be rerated once they secured another project of >RM500m. 07/11/2016 13:39
This phenomena of many "investor gurus" reminded me of the "property gurus", an indication of properties speculations (easy money from bank). I must said, I do not know the current "stock margin" given out, if the trend is very high, then, one have to be cautious, remember in China? (Will try to find out this data, if available, or anyone know this information).
Sell on strength. 50% of Gadang net profit comes from property developments sold during the hot years. Future property sales are unlikely to come online soon and margin is gonna be much lower. Gadang looks fully valued to me. In one or two years, its profit gonna crash at least 25% with or without MRT 2 contracts.
By Flintstones.
Never ever annualized the earnings of a cyclical company. Extrapolating the past into the future naively is one mistake that many investors succumb too. Many things tend to revert to its mean. Before holding Gadang, you must ask whether the profit margin is sustainable. Gadang net profit will never exceed its current peak for the next few years. You can pay 8x PE on Gadang. But if the profit crashes half, you are looking at a 16x PE.
On dangerous ground ... best to wait for share dilution after bonus and observe transaction behaviour after that before deciding on your next move for Gadang.
It is still a good counter but wide opinion on its future TP causing extreme volatility
Directors cheat you meh? Cheat you dun tell you 5.2bil order tender la, will said tender 12bil or 15 bil la. Tender ma. not accounting record. Auditors oni can keep quiet.
can tell syndicates pushing down to collect cheaper, wait for RM2.60, sure a lot of people sell warrants and free shares, that's time you whack, not now, koon yew yin sold last Friday
He didnt said sell..he just said he sold all at rm3.. sell or buy is still up to you guys to decide. it is just like he said he exit and migrate out from malaysia..and he didnt ask you guys to follow him to quit from malaysia, and is your own choice
ColdEye really said he sold 3 at d talk? Or just hearsay from others? Just curious cz he never announced his buying or selling all this while. People usually find out from the annual report.
Still having hope with GADANG? Be aware that dividend ex tomorrow 7.0 sen, so the market going to adjust for 7.0 sen! Usually after ex dividend, the trend is down a bit further, dare to contra?
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
enning22
2,942 posts
Posted by enning22 > 2016-11-07 13:19 | Report Abuse
you really know, or just another really don't know,but pretend to know.