Kadir...most punters buying now, look foward to some improvement in the coming 2nd Qtr results. I take a longer term view to ride with the up-trend. re Sunright, I prefer to have a direct stake in KESM.
well actually they are looking further ahead... ie this next qtr results also might not be good...but its expected... the ceo expect better results in 2nd half 2019 once/if the trade war is over....ie.. US and China likely to sign a deal by march or april...2019
FY Ended 31 July (RM ‘000) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Revenue 254,365 263,122 285,734 337,988 349,777 Profit Before Tax 19,804 24,039 36,239 47,843 43,686 Net Profit Attributable to Owners of the Company 10,883 17,031 30,683 43,994 39,338 Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 245,459 260,466 286,718 329,139 356,507 Basic Earnings Per Share (sen) 25.3 39.6 71.3 102.3 91.5 Dividend Per Share (sen) 3.0 6.0 7.5 12.5 18.5
2014 /2015 earnings were even better, but then the share price was only rm2-3
The earnings result for this stock is very bad. Sorry to say, sure lao sai tomorrow. The prospect given by management also quite bad. Seems like the downturn of semiconductor industry will last for sometimes. It will get worse before it recovers.
golden rules can't apply here. slow down in manufacturing will impact slowly. Osram and lumiled cut cost by reducing manpower. more and more company going to follow in 2019
2Q19 result of only RM470k in profit shows how the business environment for the semiconductor industries has become more challenging. With global semiconductor sales to see a slowdown in growth in 2019 due to the downturn of demand for memory chip market (this can be confirmed by the decreasing price of SSD), investors need to expect that KESM will deliver similar small quarterly profit in 3Q and 4Q19 as well. Even if the company managed to deliver a profit of RM10mil in FY19 (3Q & 4Q19 average profit need to reach around RM3.5mil per quarter), At the current share price the company would have already been valued at a PE of 36x.
During the share price peak of around RM22 per share or RM950mil market cap and using the highest FY profit reached in FY18 or RM39.4mil, the company was valued at a PE of 24x. This is actually quite high for a company that is actually in the business of testing the semiconductor components (and not actually developing it themselves). That being said, the high PE was mainly attributed to investors believes that the more than 30% average annual growth rate from FY15 profit of only RM17mil to FY18 peak profit of RM39.4mil would continue in the future. When this failed to materialised, some investors decided to sell the shares. This shows the risk of investing in very high valuation companies. Investors need to make sure that the high valuation should always be compensated by a high growth in profit as well.
If you are looking to hedge your portfolio outside of Kesm (due to its weak earnings outlook and relatively high valuation), I would recommend you to look at MBMR. (https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/pt/5983.jsp)
MBMR is a direct proxy to Perodua via its 22.6% interest in the company. Valuation is cheap at only 6.3x PE based on FY18 profit of RM166mil. PB is low at only 0.7x BV.
FY19 should deliver another profit growth year to the company. Profit growth will again be driven by the performance of Perodua (via MBMR 22.6% holdings in Perodua) from the still strong sales of new Myvi, sales of SUV Aruz and the introduction of the newly revamp Alza sometime in the 2H19. Aruz which commands a higher margin compared to other models, will help improve the total profit margin of Perodua (which will flow to MBMR’s bottom line as well).
MBMR is expected to achieve a profit of RM200mil in 2019. At the current share price, the company is being valued at only 5.1x which is a lot lower than the industry average of 15x PE. As an example, UMW (another company with exposure to Perodua) is currently trading at a PE multiple of almost 20x.
I guess they are hoping for an instant rebound. Based on fundamentals, the company looks intact, just lower profits for the quarter. Its not even a loss to begin with...
That is what they want you to believe. But in reality the past is the key. Most stock valuation are based on past result. Future anyone can cooked up a story, past is fixed.
MikiMouse23 Investors always look forward . Not the past. Why the selldown before the bad result came out. They are always ahead.
aiyah.. anyway they have a few hundred million in cash...that alone is worth $4 to $5..and if asset included its probably around $8++... right now is already $8++..... its priced at bomb up levels.... lol
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
cefiro22
383 posts
Posted by cefiro22 > 2019-02-26 09:19 | Report Abuse
It broke RM10 = 1lot done at 9.13...cheers to all.