Posted by nikicheong > 2022-05-25 17:10 | Report Abuse

Some key points:

- No necessity for further impairment for now
- The Mumbai FSRU project discussion period has been extended 3 mths to June 2022, and can be extended further. Announcement will be made once the contract is final.
- not focusing on redeployment opportunities, only new projects as it'd be easier to integrate green components
- Discussions ongoing to sell Armada Claire with a party, carrying value on the books is negligible and the asset has been fully depreciated in Dec 2021. If not sold, it will be scrapped by year's end.

Posted by nikicheong > 2022-05-25 17:15 | Report Abuse

1st TP Update: Maybank RM0.58 (no change)

Posted by Thirai Thiraviam > 2022-05-25 17:22 | Report Abuse

I voted against the rights issue. I felt it makes no sense to dilute the shares that are performing so terribly. But good to know it is not being actively planned.

Posted by Thirai Thiraviam > 2022-05-25 17:31 | Report Abuse

Two items mentioned during the AGM caught my attention: 1) Armada Sterling V will finally go into production in Q4 of 2022; and 2) the usage of a Combine Cycle Gas Turbine (not sure where).

Posted by nikicheong > 2022-05-25 17:32 | Report Abuse

2) the usage of a Combine Cycle Gas Turbine (not sure where).

This is for their future prospects I believe, as part of their green initiatives.

Posted by nikicheong > 2022-05-25 22:58 | Report Abuse

TP Update:

Maybank RM0.58 (no change)
CGS-CIMB RM0.45 (from RM0.55)
Macquarie RM0.48 (no change)

Curious to know why CGS-CIMB has downgraded the stock rather heavily.

Posted by Raymond Tiruchelvam > 2022-05-26 05:38 | Report Abuse

this Q eps at 3.14, and with good strong orderbook, and assuming 3.14 x 4 = 12.56, thats puts p/e with current price of 44c at 3,5x, even if the earnings was discounted 20% to then p/e is 4.4x .... isnt that too low for energy company? cud it be because no div therefore shunned by institiunal investors?

Posted by hng33 > 2022-05-26 08:45 | Report Abuse

The earning will getting higher in next Q result, why? merely due to strengthen USD as all it profit is USD denominated, use its operating cash flow in USD to trim USD debt every quarter, trim down interest expense, boosts up profit in RM, increasing EPS staggering up on every Q forward

Posted by nikicheong > 2022-05-26 09:08 | Report Abuse

TP Update:

Maybank RM0.58 (no change)
CGS-CIMB RM0.45 (from RM0.55)
Macquarie RM0.48 (no change)
Citibank RM0.68 (from RM0.65)
Kenanga RM0.63 (no change)
KAF RM0.60 (no change)
JF Apex RM0.53 (no change)
Hong Leong RM0.84 (no change)


Curious to know why CGS-CIMB has downgraded the stock rather heavily.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-05-26 09:12 | Report Abuse

1. Subsea Construction (“SC”) vessels at work in the Caspian Sea (Russian client, Lukoil), contract value is approximately USD50.0 million. Offshore construction work is expected to be completed in 2022. These is goods news against rumour Russian risk default due to invasion

2. Mumbai Port FSRU project is being progressed and we will make an announcement on further details of the project once these are available. Likely will be mid june

3. Armada Claire to be sold or scrapped in 2022. Significant writeback provision will record once it materialize as these vessel already fully devalue/fully depreciated last year 2021. Therefore, any value created either through outright sell or scrap for few million USD, will boost armanda cash hoard, allowing it to further trim USD debt, cut interest expense, up profit attributed to shareholder. In additional, any final outcome from legal course over armanda claire claim against client will bring extra bonus cash as interim court show Armanda entitle few million claim already

4. Since almost all non performing OSV already disposed off (only 3 OSV remaining which already fully integrated for own operation). Thus, for now onwards, Operations segment results mainly boost through continue trim down debt, reduce interest expense, boots up net profit + bonus through strengthen USD currency + commencement of new 98/02 FPSO end of 2022 + upcoming new contract from India
revenue and lower operating costs in Q1 2022.

Posted by itch > 2022-05-26 10:27 | Report Abuse

CIMB downgraded it's TP as they said right issue may be imminent...the premise they used is Yinson's price declined as much as 26% since it called for right issue in 2021

Posted by itch > 2022-05-26 10:28 | Report Abuse

RHB latest report maintained it TP at 58c

Posted by nikicheong > 2022-05-26 10:31 | Report Abuse

TP Update:

Maybank RM0.58 (no change)
CGS-CIMB RM0.45 (from RM0.55)
Macquarie RM0.48 (no change)
Citibank RM0.68 (from RM0.65)
Kenanga RM0.63 (no change)
KAF RM0.60 (no change)
JF Apex RM0.53 (no change)
Hong Leong RM0.84 (no change)
RHB-OSK RM0.58 (from RM0.65)

So far mainly downgrades or no change to TP. Very weird, does not tally with the reality.

Posted by itch > 2022-05-26 10:46 | Report Abuse

sorry, yes RHB downgraded from previous TP, not maintain.

Posted by nikicheong > 2022-05-26 10:55 | Report Abuse

CIMB Report (all investors should read as it is very detailed):

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?file=47d5fd0d-de0e-482a-b3f6-430801a1f4ba

Posted by nikicheong > 2022-05-26 10:55 | Report Abuse

So the actual SOP has increased from RM0.61 to RM0.65, but they have imposed a 30% discount premised on an imminent rights issue. I may not necessarily agree with this, as Bumi Armada is generating cash hard and fast, and might yet be able to fund the equity portion of one large project using internally generated funds, especially if they can sell off Armada Claire, as well as since Tranche 1 of their term loans has been almost fully repaid as of March 2022. Also, as shared during the AGM, Bumi Armada will be partnering with co-venturers for all large scale FPSO projects, so we can assume a 50-50 split in equity commitment, further lowering the likelihood of a rights issue (which CIMB seems to not have mentioned about).

Posted by Thirai Thiraviam > 2022-05-26 11:46 | Report Abuse

Why does the analyst think the Revenue will continuously decline for the next three years? And, that the PE will remain well below 4.0 throughout the period? The analysis is generally positive; but no so the financial summary.

Posted by nikicheong > 2022-05-26 12:20 | Report Abuse

Based on current orderbook, revenue is expected to continue falling. Armada TGT lease revenue is recognised on a decreasing basis. I know Armada Olombendo and Armada Mediterenia revenue is recognized in a straight line basis. I'm unsure if Armada Kraken revenue recognition is decreasing or straight line. Armada TGT lease expires in 2024, Armada Kraken firm charter period expires in 2025.

OSVs have been practically sold (only 3 left, from 40+ just a few years ago), so revenue contribution from them will continue falling too.

Bumi Armada has two projects in hand, Armada Sterling V (for 98/2 project) and Mumbai Port FSRU. For both projects, the revenue will NOT be recognised by Bumi Armada, as they are accounted for as associate and JV respectively.

As such, given how things stand, revenue has pretty much flatlined, and will likely be falling in the coming years. But curiously, the net profit will continue inching up due to lower finance cost (as loans are pared down), lower depreciation charges and higher profit contribution from associates/JVs as the two new India projects come on stream.

Posted by Macgyver11 > 2022-05-26 14:01 | Report Abuse

nikicheong

TP Update:

Maybank RM0.58 (no change)
CGS-CIMB RM0.45 (from RM0.55)
Macquarie RM0.48 (no change)
Citibank RM0.68 (from RM0.65)
Kenanga RM0.63 (no change)
KAF RM0.60 (no change)
JF Apex RM0.53 (no change)
Hong Leong RM0.84 (no change)
RHB-OSK RM0.58 (from RM0.65)

Results TP:-
1) 2 IB - downgrade
2) 6 IB - maintained unchange TP
3) 1 IB - increased TP

Conclusion:-
8 IB buy meanwhile 1 sell

Posted by winmal > 2022-05-26 15:02 | Report Abuse

Armada have order book of Rm13Billion, its will keep them busy for next 5-6 years without extension order in pipe line and future order. Indeed company continue to paredown his debt, company might propose dividend in coming year.

Posted by Macgyver11 > 2022-05-26 15:18 | Report Abuse

Shit! All the way down again...

Posted by Macgyver11 > 2022-05-26 15:19 | Report Abuse

After the excellent qtr...unbelievable.

Posted by nikicheong > 2022-05-26 15:27 | Report Abuse

Quite inexplicable the share price movement. It's as if there is no positive, and in fact many negatives, priced into the share price.

Then again, if the share price continues to hover at around RM0.40-RM0.42 I might increase my position.

Balance sheet risks are no longer a concern, and the company is now all set to grow. Discounting all that, just looking at what Bumi Armada is already doing, and we're still rather undervalued. Add to the fact that Armada TGT will be renewed, as will Armada Kraken, I am just lost for words.

Posted by Macgyver11 > 2022-05-26 15:36 | Report Abuse

Many stuck above 0.50...bleeding man.

Posted by Macgyver11 > 2022-05-26 15:39 | Report Abuse

Aiya! Uncle AK kasi naik ni stock. Jgn bikin ni mcm sama lupunya royal investors....

Posted by HuatlaiOnglai > 2022-05-26 16:13 | Report Abuse

Depress price due to weak sector result from some bad apples in the industry. Most are caution but given time with consistent growth while actively paring down their debt, surely BA will shine then. Probably another few qtrs from now.....my 2cents nia.

Posted by curiousq > 2022-05-26 22:19 | Report Abuse

cannot already

Posted by abcd11111 > 2022-05-27 00:00 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by bjgdila123 > 2022-05-27 07:32 | Report Abuse

anak anda tlg kasi lambonglah sudah byk tahun tidoq

Posted by CHLEONG888 > 2022-05-27 07:45 | Report Abuse

Good result, also down, what the hell?

Posted by OrlandoOilSemiconIoT > 2022-05-27 09:27 | Report Abuse

CBSCIMB trying to b funny

Put in a 30% discount on unannounced RI?

Somemore downside risk to its 0.46 is RI?

Posted by OrlandoOilSemiconIoT > 2022-05-27 09:30 | Report Abuse

0.46

If price remains

RI price say 25% discount is 0.345

Posted by OrlandoOilSemiconIoT > 2022-05-27 09:31 | Report Abuse

RI price is 0.345 or 0 46???

Posted by OrlandoOilSemiconIoT > 2022-05-27 09:37 | Report Abuse

CBSCIMB at the most should put FV 0.65 with a downside risk to is valuation due to adverse response to RI

NOT priced in not even a 50:50 RI

Posted by OrlandoOilSemiconIoT > 2022-05-27 09:37 | Report Abuse

Where is the science???!!???

Posted by Beltland > 2022-05-27 12:45 | Report Abuse

OrlandoOilSemiconIoT

CBSCIMB trying to b funny

Put in a 30% discount on unannounced RI?

Somemore downside risk to its 0.46 is RI?


Who says CBSCIMB cannot be lying or makes mistake ?

Posted by Fieldbus > 2022-05-27 15:26 | Report Abuse

That's why we always called those so called analyst "sin ka lan"

Posted by abcd11111 > 2022-05-27 23:15 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by bullmarket1628 > 2022-05-28 07:01 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 1pingpong > 2022-05-28 15:08 | Report Abuse

wow, another bullish Harami!!.. ini kali mau show full power.

Posted by yangkwang99 > 2022-05-28 15:13 | Report Abuse

Break 45cents convincingly first!

Posted by Mabel > 2022-05-28 23:20 | Report Abuse

Friday, May 27th, 2022

Oil prices have been edging higher this week as improving demand signals highlight the lack of supply options in oil markets if there is a drastic contraction in Russian production, a likely outcome if the European Union bans Russian oil. With both US crude and gasoline inventories continuing their decline, whilst recent altercations between the United States and Iran have rendered any JCPOA breakthrough largely impossible, analysts are anticipating another surge towards the $130-140 per barrel range this summer.

Posted by Ninja _07 > 2022-05-29 22:39 | Report Abuse

Oil price naik but O & G counters down..

Posted by bullmarket1628 > 2022-05-31 07:48 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by VenFx > 2022-05-31 10:53 | Report Abuse

Base building before breakthrough 0.460 major resistance, patient shall be rewarded.

Posted by nicholas99 > 2022-06-01 08:07 | Report Abuse

dead stock.. no momentum.

Posted by TimCoke > 2022-06-01 09:13 | Report Abuse

can buy now, good news

Posted by alenac > 2022-06-01 11:07 | Report Abuse

Wait for the big boss to Goreng, then this counter will move.

Posted by marqdesade > 2022-06-01 12:20 | Report Abuse

wait for it to break resistance before take up position

Posted by Gold_Ticker > 2022-06-01 12:21 | Report Abuse

<Attention>: Resistance close @ 0..455. Mid upward force. | 20220601_121058