Expert another round of USD strengthening and wti oil price hover around USD70 for the SPR to buy back. At least a few weeks. US market should go side ways with a few bear market rallies . This cycle should continue until at least 3rd qtr. So sideways trading strategy applies.
Not sure if this means first oil will come earlier, or if May is the intended first oil date. Either way, seems like a slight delay. Not sure if the delay is due to FPSO operator (the vessel was hooked-up at the end of Dec 22), or with ONGC / other components of the 98/2 field.
Now that I think about it, first oil should be imminent (in the coming days/weeks). May 2023 is the likely target date for the "full acceptance" of the FPSO vessel and commencement of oil production charter.
Bumi Armada is a cash cow, but it's just "unexciting" for now. Kinda boring. We need some positive newsflow people! Curiously, the analyst briefing slides also seem very boring - nothing new in there.
HIS punya barang always privatised cheap cheap one you dunno meh? look at HIStory take any TP like 80 sen with many pinches of salt like say one million tonne of salt
Posted by ageetkumar > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse
If valuation continues to be low, could easily become target for privatisation
Uncle! when your age getting old you starting to worry about this worry about that. Share market is a dangerous place for you Uncle! You better put all your money in FD.
Look at the management team's effort in Armada in the past few years, the turnaround from a company almost bankrupted to a profitable company now.
Don't forget AK saved the company from bankruptcy in 2019 with his personal loan to Armada almost RM 2 billion. How many listed company big bosses have did the same to rescue a company? Tony Fernandes?
He has the rights to privatize this company, he deserves it! I'm willing to sell back my shares to him, if he make this call!
Yes that US$75m loan from Mezzanine Equities (Ananda's vehicle) was absolutely necessary at the point in time. Today, that amount looks like chump change. And mind you, that was right before Covid happened, and Bumi Armada weathered through as they were already on a corrected trajectory.
I don't believe Bumi Armada will be an easy privatisation target as Ananda doesn't own much of the company to begin with (around 35%). But there may always be an option to merge with MISC or Yinson to create a global flagship FPSO company.
After this result, TP won't be 60 cts anymore. I will be diving in deeper if price go below 58. I will expect counter to go above 80 once they announce a project win.
alenac Will Monday be the big boss day? Or will the following earnings report another burst of profits for Armada? Armada had never had such a good year since 2013. Oil price is back in play as long as Putin keeps the onslaught on Ukraine.
If this type of stock also rate at a sell, then there are no stocks you can buy in Bursa, better save your hard earn money in FD else you will be all time looser in your investment. My sincere advice!
dun involve emotions keep it business you might lose some money if technicals prove wrong, sometimes sheet happens on average plus minus over many counters if dun involve emotions, generally technicals will make net profit
OK dun pun emotions in the discussion. Let the time telling us the truth.
A company that fully recovered from the storm, trying hard to minimize the debts, generated billion cash last year and hit record profit this year. I believe the market will give a fair value for Armada within the next 6 months. I'm talking about PE 15X.
1) Award of Cameia FPSO project in Angola from TotalEnergies - This is only an EPC contract and will only sustain earnings for 2-3 years. This is NOT a long-term charter contract 2) 1 Minor FPSO contract win (either a small/medium scale FPSO 100% owned) - Active bids in Tuna field (Indonesia) and Palok field (Mexico) 3) 1 Major FPSO contract win (large scale FPSO, likely with a JV partner) - Unlikely to be soon as there are no known large scale bids from Bumi Armada, but possibilities exist in West Africa / South America 4) Non-FPSO contract win (either 100% owned or JV) - e.g. FSRU, FSU, FSO - The Mumbai Port FSRU project has been deferred. No other publicly known bids for now 5) New contract win for the 2 SC vessels in the Caspian Sea and 1 JV-owned SC vessel in Indonesia. Potential for new wins for the Caspian Sea vessels as flurry of work in the region due to high oil price environment. All 3 vessels as at 31 Dec 2022 are laid up
Green energy: 1) "Green energy" initiatives for future FPSO/non-FPSO wins (e.g. zero flaring or fully electrified FPSO) 2) Decarbonisation for existing fleet of FPSO 3) Diversification into floating CCS and other "green" structures materialise
Business as usual: 1) First oil achievement and then full acceptance of Armada Sterling V FPSO by ONGC at the 98/2 field in India 2) Confirmation of sale or scrapping of Armada Claire FPSO 2) Full divestment of the remaining offshore vessel
Contract extensions: 1) Confirmation of contract extension for Armada TGT FPSO in Vietnam - Might only be announced in Q4 2024, but it's all but certain the contract will be extended as new wells are still being drilled in the aged TGT field 2) Contract extension of Armada Sterling II (due in Q4 2024) 3) Positive development at the Kraken field such as drilling of the Kraken Western flank or tieback to the nearby Bressay and Bentley fields - This would signal long-term contract extension for Armada Kraken FPSO which is due to expire in Q3 2025. For now, Enquest has indefinitely deferred drilling due to commence in 2023
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Note: All the above comes from my own research. Let me know if I've missed out on anything. I maintain that the Q4 2022 results, while extremely solid, were wholly "unexciting". We need positive developments that would enhance the long-term wellbeing of the company, only this will ultimately push the share price to higher levels.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Fieldbus
10 posts
Posted by Fieldbus > 2023-02-22 16:00 | Report Abuse
For this wave I expect it to hit 0.52/0.53 before a rebound upward.