I think it may bounce up again once Brent above 95. Wait for what FED has to say and the game starts. Was able to buy 50% of what I sold at 56, sadly parked the other 50% at 55. Once it breaks 57.5 will jump back in.
It would take another 2 quarters profitability to remove the accumulated losses of the owners' equity (- RM 447 K ) before Armada is allowed to declare any dividend from its future profit. The market would accept its valuations better than now, I hope.
@MM78 I wouldn't want Bumi Armada to pay out dividends anytime soon. Rather them use the money to pare down debts, and to reinvest into the business. Once they reach a point where they have lots of money and no idea what to do with it, then and only then, they should be paying out dividends.
My opinion if Armada starting paying dividend with part of the retained earning could help a lot to change the market perception and improve the market valuation of PE 4.92 (way too low now).
The debts to book ratio is healthy now, the company should be no problem getting new loan for new projects and paying off the existing loan.
The first of the new transformer units was delivered approximately two weeks ago and is now online. The second new unit is expected to arrive this weekend.
@ Nikicheong, yes it can also be beneficial to investor if Armada management can make use of the future free cash flow to generate high ROE in the new investments instead of distribute the cash as dividends. The latest Kraken event and lack of timely updates subsequently does not help create trusts. Dividends may help gaining some interests among sceptical investors who want to see some cash returns sooner instead of waiting in some blur visions due to poor investors relationship management by Armada.
However, we have to take into acct the interest rate BA pays. So let the 2Q pass and hope rates drop, and BA can do the capital mgmt accordingly. Current debt to cashflow is abt 4X very manageable. But if interest rate shoots up its good to he prudent. When rates are down BA should pay out its profits
While we may applaud the prudence in the paying down of the loans aggressively by Armada management ,we should not accept the negligence in preventive maintenance or lack of redundancy in crucial system on Kraken. The MD should take a pay cut for lack of foresights in ensuring no production disruption in such an important asset. This costs the shareholders hundreds of million. He simply ignores the need for timely updates with shareholders as well. Is the market still reflecting lack of confidence in Armada’s leadership despite the strong free cash flow that should give Armada stock better valuations? We can’t rule out AK may take Armada private once again if it is valued too cheap after its debt is paid down. I hope my such fear is unfounded.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Fklim888
1,613 posts
Posted by Fklim888 > 2023-09-19 15:57 | Report Abuse
Armada degil lagi...lol