Posted by strattegist > 2020-10-09 11:15 | Report Abuse

sustain...

Posted by 5354_ > 2020-10-09 11:19 | Report Abuse

CPO now is above avg but FGV very below avg.

Posted by 5354_ > 2020-10-09 14:38 | Report Abuse

MSM acting CEO appointed.

Posted by 5354_ > 2020-10-09 15:02 | Report Abuse

CPO RM 2939.

Posted by Mabel > 2020-10-09 16:36 | Report Abuse

5354

Can you share how you get the latest CPO prices. I always received one day late..

Thanks in advance

Meow

Posted by strattegist > 2020-10-09 17:12 | Report Abuse

closed green

Posted by Mabel > 2020-10-09 19:10 | Report Abuse

CPO Prices for March to May was Between RM2,100 to RM2,300

From June to August CPO prices have gone up to between RM2,400 and RM2,600

SO IT IS BENEFITTING FROM CPO PRICE SURGE (AND TODAY CPO TOUCHES RM3,000 (OCTOBER 9th 2020)

Meow Meow Meow

Posted by Mabel > 2020-10-09 19:25 | Report Abuse

9th October hari ini
Harga Sawit naik lagi
Perlabur Sawit pun banyak senang hati
Sudah Lima Mercedes Mabel sudah beli..

Meow Meow Meow

Posted by strattegist > 2020-10-09 21:31 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mabel > 2020-10-10 07:43 | Report Abuse

Futures are also supported by dry weather in Brazil, which threatens the soybean crop and is bolstering prices of rival soybean oil.

“Sentiment has been underpinned by good demand and prospects of higher exports to China and India, ” said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, head of trading and hedging strategies at Kaleesuwari Intercontinental. Weather concerns in Brazil are adding to this, he said.

India’s palm oil imports are seen rising to 8.85 million tons in 2020-21 from 8 million tons a year earlier, Thomas Mielke, chief executive officer of Oil World, said in an online seminar Thursday.

Palm oil prices will depend entirely on the performance of Indonesia’s biodiesel mandate to blend 30% of palm-biofuel with 70% diesel, known as B30, according to veteran analyst Dorab Mistry, a director at Godrej International.

Palm’s premium over gasoil has surged in recent months, making mandatory biodiesel programmes much more expensive to run.- Bloomberg

Posted by Mabel > 2020-10-10 12:43 | Report Abuse

Plantation - Key Takeaways From Globoil's Webinar
Date: 9th October 2020

Solvent Extractors Association of India organised a webinar yesterday titled “World Price Outlook for Vegetable Oils and Meals”. There were three speakers i.e. Thomas Mielke from Oil World, Dorab Mistry from Godrej International and James Fry from LMC International. Here are the key takeaways from the webinar: -

James Fry said that rains and good palm prices would encourage better estate maintenance in Malaysia and Indonesia, leading to improved palm production in year 2021F. Rains would boost CPO supply in early-2021F and in the meantime, there would be a seasonal pick-up in production in 4Q2020. Peak palm production may be delayed by a month or two from the usual month of October or November in Malaysia.

In terms of demand, many companies in the HORECA sector (hotels, restaurants and catering) may not survive without government support. Families in low income countries may be trading down to smaller bottles of cooking oil. James Fry did not give a price forecast.

Thomas Mielke said that CPO prices may hover around US$700/tonne (RM2,905/tonne) in 1H2021. He forecasts global production of palm oil to increase by 3.5mil to 4mil tonnes in 2021F. CPO output in Indonesia is estimated to rise by 3mil tonnes in 2021F from about 43mil tonnes in 2020E. Thomas Mielke expects CPO production in Malaysia to be flat in 2021F.

He added that global soybean supply is ample currently in spite of weather-related losses in the US. He expects world soybean supply to increase by 21mil tonnes in 2020E/2021F as Brazil is envisaged to record a record output of 132.5mil tonnes (2019/2020E: 126.5mil tonnes).

Dorab Mistry believes that CPO production in Malaysia would be flat at 19.9mil tonnes in 2020E compared with market expectations of a decline. We believe that this implies that 4Q2020 production would be strong as Malaysia’s CPO output fell by 4.7% YoY in 8M2020. He did not give a production forecast for 2021F although he said that palm supply would be good.

Dorab has suggested a dynamic biodiesel mandate to the Indonesia government whereby if CPO prices exceed US$600/tonne, the biodiesel mandate would be reduced to B25 from B30. If CPO prices exceed US$700/tonne, the biodiesel mandate would be reduced further to B20. With this, the biodiesel mandate would still be implemented but at the same time, the smallholders would not be affected by the CPO export levy. Currently, Indonesia implements the B30 biodiesel mandate with subsidies from the CPO export levy of US$55/tonne.

Mabel Research House

Posted by newbie5354_ > 2020-10-11 08:31 | Report Abuse

KWAP CEO to be removed soon nobody hear news? Any idea who successor or any job vacancy news?

Posted by Mabel > 2020-10-11 11:05 | Report Abuse

Mabel Motivation for collecting FGV - for long term.

If you look at all plantation company FGV actually aggressively re-planting. FGV is a 440 Hectares Plantation. It’s the 2nd biggest plantation after SimeDarby. All lost making JV are being disposed. Right sizing employee WIP. Cost Saving also achieved and more to come. Dairy business and Animal Feed business. Paper pulp – WIP. Bio Gas /FMCG and cross plantation. For Asian Plantation Limited Ventures — which FGV impaired some RM700 million on goodwill in 2018 — the group has seen five interested parties, and is looking forward to complete a sale by year end. Potential right back that will improve FGV Balance Sheet!

REWARDS

Trading at 35.9% below our estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 68.68% per year

RISK ANALYSIS

Has a high level of debt
Dividend of 1.87% is not well covered by earnings
Highly volatile share price over past 3 months

Meow Meow Meow

Posted by Mabel > 2020-10-11 11:32 | Report Abuse

Unlike Sime Darby, KLK, IOI Corps, Sarawak Oil Palm, TaaNN (My Blue Chip Plantation), FGV's share price has been volatile. It was listed into KLSE at RM 5.39. Friday closing is RM 1.07..

Hugh Potential for Capital Gains...

Meow Meow Meow

Posted by TigerWoods > 2020-10-11 13:03 | Report Abuse

Utd Plantation is the king of palm oil stocks. Revenue not as high as others but somehow their profit margin is way higher.

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-10-11 13:06 | Report Abuse

staff there do not steal

no cctv, no security, staff just dun want to steal.

Posted by TigerWoods > Oct 11, 2020 1:03 PM | Report Abuse

Utd Plantation is the king of palm oil stocks. Revenue not as high as others but somehow their profit margin is way higher.

Posted by daretocutandchange > 2020-10-11 14:46 | Report Abuse

looking for low pe oilpalm stocks?bumitama 48.5cts(p8z.sg)half year eps 2.3ct.sg,total planted area 187,679ha,which were 132,578ha nucleus and 55101ha plasma.ioi is the one subtantial shareholder with 32.039% and average age was 10.6years.km loong and sarawak plantation,after ta ann took over the management of sarawak plantation,the efficiency increase dramatically to boost up the net margin.must be patient.......

Posted by dam82 > 2020-10-11 17:27 | Report Abuse

agree with Mabel for now FGV is a company which with a lot issues from the past ...yet look at what they are doing if all those goes well ... FGV earning should be improving next few years .... don't forget their forry to FMCG and integrated farming something to watch out also this will not be another MAS thats for sure .. ..i will buy ... also i holding utdlpt as well .

Posted by Mabel > 2020-10-11 22:20 | Report Abuse

#TigerWoods Utd Plantation is the king of palm oil stocks. Revenue not as high as others but somehow their profit margin is way higher.
11/10/2020 1:03 PM

#supersinginvestor Utdplant
Treats staff well...they use research to make trees.
Got lots of coconuts too..
If u go to their jenderata plantation u can see why they r king of all..very well managed... why bother with other plantations if u got utdplnt n klk aldy...
11/10/2020 2:29 PM

Sure Guys. I have already take note of your advise. United Plantations Berhad is one of the most efficiently managed, eco-friendly and integrated plantation companies in Malaysia and is well known globally for its best agricultural practices and high quality standards. In Malaysia UP´s total Land Banks consist of approximately 40,855 hectares which is smaller than my SOP

Like I said, any plantation should be good to capitalise on the upcoming rally. United Plantation is currently already under my watch list. Currently Utd Plantation is overbought. I usually starts buying when it is oversold stage and when consolidation phase starts. Anyway, will consider buying only if it passed ST Resistance Level entry at RM 14.80 or pullback entry at RM 14.38. Medium TP is RM 16.620...

Like I said, everyone has different views and reasons for choosing their favourite plantation. There's no right or wrong answers. Every Plantation has its own value proposition. My motivation is to feed more than 3 billion in more than 200 countries. Hence size really matters. We gals love something big and gorgeous. Here's the size of Mabel Plantation in hectares

Mabel Plantation and Size in Hectares
KLK 285,000
IOI Corp 217,937
SOP 46,248
FGV 439,725
TSH 115,000
Sime Darby 1,000,000
JTIASA 83,000
TDM 33,638
TaaNN 87,000
THPlant 98,000
BPlant 100,000

Total 2,505,548 Hectares.

FGV Value Proposition

If you look at all plantation company FGV actually aggressively re-planting. FGV is a 440 Hectares Plantation. It’s the 2nd biggest plantation after SimeDarby. All lost making JV are being disposed. Right sizing employee WIP. Cost Saving also achieved and more to come. Dairy business and Animal Feed business. Paper pulp – WIP. Bio Gas /FMCG and cross plantation. For Asian Plantation Limited Ventures — which FGV impaired some RM700 million on goodwill in 2018 — the group has seen five interested parties, and is looking forward to complete a sale by year end. Potential right back that will improve FGV Balance Sheet!

REWARDS

Trading at 35.9% below our estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 68.68% per year

RISK ANALYSIS

Has a high level of debt
Dividend of 1.87% is not well covered by earnings
Highly volatile share price over past 3 months

Always remember, we are World Biggest Producers of Glove and the 3rd Biggest Producer of Rubber. That's why this round, I put more effort to collect FGV since FGV has both Oil Palm and Rubber which complement my Gloves Fantastic Four collection. Malaysia is also the 2nd Biggest producers of Palm Oil.

Plantation do have some challenge this year. Last year was challenging too but I believe those that has invested in FGV in the last cycle has already profited. FGV has paved way for me to buy into more planantion. I end up having 11 Plantations. I'm actually looking for another round of capital gain from FGV to buy into United Plantation as my 12th Plantation.

12 is actually is actually a nice number. Currently I have 12 Healthcare Companies and 12 O&G Fossil Fuel Battleships (after I consolidate my collection from 18 into 12 companies). It will be lovely to have 12 Biofuel Plantation in my collection too.

Always stay invested!

Meow...

Posted by Mabel > 2020-10-11 22:21 | Report Abuse

@dam82 agree with Mabel for now FGV is a company which with a lot issues from the past ...yet look at what they are doing if all those goes well ... FGV earning should be improving next few years .... don't forget their forry to FMCG and integrated farming something to watch out also this will not be another MAS thats for sure .. ..i will buy ... also i holding utdlpt as well .
11/10/2020 5:27 PM

Meow dam82!

Listen to dam82. He knows what he's doing and also a smart guy...

I always adore smart man...

Meow..

Posted by strattegist > 2020-10-12 07:03 | Report Abuse

sawitdikapppp

Posted by BN_better > 2020-10-12 07:37 | Report Abuse

Cannot understand your language. Thais is it?

strattegist sawitdikapppp
12/10/2020 7:03 AM

Posted by BN_better > 2020-10-12 07:42 | Report Abuse

Miss BN appointed KWAP CEO. Why BN time KWAP RM 2 FGV can buy not PH appointed CEO?

Posted by Jeffreyteck > 2020-10-12 08:31 | Report Abuse

Simple job for FGV:
List down average income of all level within the company. Show income discrepancy coefficient. Prove exploitation does not exist or compensate accordingly as like top glove which initially claimed can be resolved soon, ended need to compensate.

Posted by BN_better > 2020-10-12 09:01 | Report Abuse

Changing of the guard at GLICs... again

Posted by strattegist > 2020-10-12 10:08 | Report Abuse

maintain

Posted by Mabel > 2020-10-12 10:32 | Report Abuse

KUALA LUMPUR: The crude palm oil (CPO) futures contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives is expected to trade higher this week, buoyed by expectations of stronger demand from India ahead of the Deepavali festival.

Singapore-based Palm Oil Analytics’ owner and co-founder Dr Sathia Varqa said the Festival of Lights, to be celebrated on Nov 14, would boost Indian demand for the golden crop in the near term.

"Traders also anticipate weaker production due to the rainy season which could contribute to the reduction of stockpiles in the country.

"Furthermore, they would also be waiting for the Malaysia Palm Oil Board’s (MPOB) report to be released on Monday,” he told Bernama.

On a Friday-to-Friday basis, the CPO futures contract for October 2020 rose RM174 to RM3,020 per tonne, November 2020 jumped RM201 to RM2,967 per tonne, December 2020 strengthened RM203 to RM2,911 per tonne, and January 2021 climbed RM191 to RM2,865 per tonne.

Weekly volume down to 241,460 lots from 318,816 lots in the previous week, while open interest surged to 258,490 contracts from 245,116 contracts.

On the physical market, October South stood at RM3,010 per tonne. - Bernama

Posted by strattegist > 2020-10-12 10:40 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by strattegist > 2020-10-12 10:48 | Report Abuse

steady

Posted by strattegist > 2020-10-12 11:44 | Report Abuse

green

Posted by Mabel > 2020-10-12 12:56 | Report Abuse

Meow Meow Meow

Posted by Mabel > 2020-10-12 12:56 | Report Abuse

Plantation Updates

Bloomberg reported that Malaysia’s palm planters have condemned the USA’s ban on FGV Holdings’ products, saying that the move will affect more than 32,000 farmers. The National Association of Smallholders Malaysia called the ban a “reckless act” and said it will worsen palm oil’s reputation as it is also facing anti-palm oil campaigns in Europe. The US Customs Order is the result of a year-long investigation that revealed labour abuses, deception, restriction of movement, isolation, intimidation and physical and sexual violence, according to its statement.

Reuters reported that Argentina has temporarily cut soybean export taxes by 3 percentage points to 30% to help stimulate trades. Processed soybean meal and soybean oil levies will temporarily be cut to varying rates starting at around 28% according to a detailed breakdown of the tax rates made available by the Economy Ministry. All of the rates would then rise again incrementally until January 2020. Argentina’s CIARA soybean crushing companies’ chamber called the tax cut plan insufficient. CIARA said that all export taxes and restrictions on grains and their derivatives are distorting the market. The association would support a schedule for the reduction and elimination of such duties.

FGV Holdings said that it plans to expand its rubber business to Europe and North America through the appointment of UK-based rubber marketing agency, Rubber Heart Ltd. Rubber Heart will develop strategy to market FGV’s technically specified rubber and specialty natural rubber-based materials for the two regions. FGV operates four rubber processing facilities in Malaysia with an annual production of 230,000 tonnes.

Bloomberg cited Brazil’s rural economy institute Imea as saying that soybean seeding in Mato Grosso has stalled on dry weather. Seeding was 1.7% completed in Mato Grosso as at two weeks ago, down from 6.7% a year earlier and the five-year average of 9.6%. Also, an official with Aprosoja, which is a farm group, said that fieldwork has completely halted as farmers do not want to take risks after forecasts showed that rains may not arrive until 10 October. Seeding delays for soybeans may disrupt the timing for planting cotton and corn after the soybean harvest.

According to EU’s Transport and Environment website, adults in Europe do not want to promote the burning of palm oil or soybean oil in diesel cars and trucks. According to a YouGov poll in seven European countries, 34% of Europeans want to stop the use of palm oil in diesel fuel as soon as possible after being told about EU’s decision to phase out palm biodiesel by year 2030F. About 22% want to do it sooner than 2030F. Only 8% opposed EU’s decision to end the use of palm oil in power vehicles.

Posted by strattegist > 2020-10-12 13:39 | Report Abuse

green

Posted by dam82 > 2020-10-12 13:52 | Report Abuse

For 2018, we are forecasting average CPO production cost (ex-mill) at RM1,666 per MT. In 2019, we are targeting average CPO production cost (ex-mill) at RM1,469 per MT.

Through its transformation plan, FGV will correct its legacy issues and restore operational integrity. It is estimated that at an average CPO price of RM2,500 per MT, FGV should be able to earn profit before tax (PBT) of RM1.0 billion a year. All shareholders, especially FELDA will stand to benefit.


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throughout this year w saw CPO above 2500 can FGV Deliver Q3 and Q4 ?

Posted by Mabel > 2020-10-12 14:43 | Report Abuse

@dam82 For 2018, we are forecasting average CPO production cost (ex-mill) at RM1,666 per MT. In 2019, we are targeting average CPO production cost (ex-mill) at RM1,469 per MT.

Through its transformation plan, FGV will correct its legacy issues and restore operational integrity. It is estimated that at an average CPO price of RM2,500 per MT, FGV should be able to earn profit before tax (PBT) of RM1.0 billion a year. All shareholders, especially FELDA will stand to benefit.
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throughout this year w saw CPO above 2500 can FGV Deliver Q3 and Q4 ?
12/10/2020 1:52 PM

Absolutely dam82!. All my Blue Chips are indicating good forecast for 2020 and 2021. SimeDarby for instance are indicating 6% growth in revenue with profit growth of 10X.

All cleaning are being done through the FGV Transformation Plan and do not forget the RM700 million on goodwill in 2018 — the group has seen five interested parties, and is looking forward to complete a sale by year end. Hence we are talking another potential right back that will improve FGV Balance Sheet!

On a Friday-to-Friday basis, the CPO futures contract for October 2020 rose RM174 to RM3,020 per tonne, November 2020 jumped RM201 to RM2,967 per tonne, December 2020 strengthened RM203 to RM2,911 per tonne, and January 2021 climbed RM191 to RM2,865 per tonne.

Weekly volume down to 241,460 lots from 318,816 lots in the previous week, while open interest surged to 258,490 contracts from 245,116 contracts.

On the physical market, October South stood at RM3,010 per tonne.

Meow Meow Meow

Posted by rlch > 2020-10-12 14:45 | Report Abuse

CPO > RM 3K sure benefits FGV.

Posted by strattegist > 2020-10-12 14:50 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by strattegist > 2020-10-12 15:01 | Report Abuse

green

Posted by strattegist > 2020-10-12 15:24 | Report Abuse

sustain green

Posted by strattegist > 2020-10-12 17:56 | Report Abuse

closed green

Posted by Mabel > 2020-10-12 21:49 | Report Abuse

Slowly and Surely...

Meow...

Posted by Mabel > 2020-10-13 08:52 | Report Abuse

Presently, the four largest sectors on the KLCI with a combined weight of 66% are Banks (e.28.4%), Gloves (e.15.2%), Utility (e.11.8%) and Telco (e.10.6%).

If Gloves Supermax and Kossan feature in the next constituent review, these four sectors would make up about 70% of the total weight: Banks (e.27.7%), Gloves (e.19.8%), Utility (e.11.6%), Telco (e.10.3%)

Plantation currently is only 8.9% which means there lots of room to grow since there are similar advantages of medical gloves and palm oil due to the tropical climate of Malaysia

1. Why China cannot compete against Malaysian Medical gloves?

Answer:

Because China don't have rubber trees for fresh latex

And China got cold winter which is bad for glove chemical as cold weather hardens rubber fast unless they use heater which add to cost of production

2. Same reason applies to palm oil

Soybean cannot grow in winter. So from November to March USA don't have soybean

For Brazil and Argentina now got very very hot dry weather so planting is delayed even though it is Spring time in the Southern hemisphere

Palm oil is evergreen and is harvested twice a week throughout the whole year round

So, for 4 months when there is no soyoil or other vege oil then palm oil will reign as king oil

SO, FROM NOW TILL FEBRUARY PALM OIL MIGHT GO UP INTO STRONG UPTREND

SHOULD BRAZIL & ARGENTINA GOT DROUGHT THEN PALM OIL WILL GO INTO FULL FLEDGE MULTI YEAR HIGH BULL RUN.

Meow Meow Meow

Posted by Hidup_PN > 2020-10-13 10:54 | Report Abuse

Promoters on leave so must down?

Posted by yesyesyes > 2020-10-13 10:58 | Report Abuse

meow meow .. i am in .

Posted by lck1300 > 2020-10-13 12:56 | Report Abuse

Oh no down so much

Posted by dam82 > 2020-10-13 13:02 | Report Abuse

No eye see for at least 1 year

Posted by zzzzzz > 2020-10-13 13:42 | Report Abuse

supersinginvestor did you invest in FGV?

Posted by zzzzzz > 2020-10-13 14:45 | Report Abuse

You're so generous. Spending your time warning others on stocks you don't buy. Keep up the good work

Posted by yongyong88 > 2020-10-13 15:11 | Report Abuse

pls sell n run,I am buying n keep... good time to collect

Posted by wilxom > 2020-10-13 15:23 | Report Abuse

Today announcement from Hishamuddin that China is buying palm oil from Malaysia 1.7 million tan.

https://mobile.twitter.com/HishammuddinH2O/status/1315905196753526786?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet