last quarter was not as profitable as previous in tradition. this quarter the revenue does not grow higher YoY as previous in tradition. signs that something not right.
bcause md ceo. the business result like that. not unusual executing officers buy. even BoD will force them buy if they dont. b it build public confident or punishment.
gestation and the upfront resources scaterred far2 away from home make ROE drop. EV/EBIDTA at 9 times compared to 12-13 times of big cap towerco. What make OCK so special at this price?...
Look at tenancy ratio at 1.2-1.3 per tower, is OCK Vietnam, Myanmar & Indon operation is a charity biz?...i still remeber back then somewhere in 2013/2014 that MD Ooi said operation in IndoChina operation require big cap as there is lot of intergrity issue with authority there.
Always remember that quantity of tower if not cover sufficient tenacy, will make operating cash flow down as you can see although number tower growth substantianly but operating cash flow were negative.
Operating tower company required high capex if you were the one who plan, build & operate.
I predict maybe operating cash flow may come FY2018 or FY2019. For carefull valuation i put OCK at RM 0.30.
Who is EPF collecting share from? I see this few months the price is artificially suppress for collection. Share seem to be exchanging hand at a fixed price.
Analysts have high expectation in 2016 on towerco project in Myanmar (to build 920). Due to some changes of focus by the telco, the numbers of tower built was slower than analysts initially expected. Despite the delay, lately, OCK reported about 830 towers built with 1.4x tenancy ratio, which is equivalent to about 1,200 towers in 1Q18. Earnings from towerco growth will accelerate from now.
2018 1H milestone 1.Bagged 3y full turnkey fiberisation frame contract from Maxis (valued at over MYR150m). 2.Awarded managed services contract with Ericsson for DiGi which comprised >8,000 active and 4,400 passive sites nationwide
My point of view is, the price building is too fast for this counter. People had expected big profit from this company even thou that the business they involved in has long gestational period. Expansion is good as it will translate into larger profit, but in OCK terms, if they expand in such pace, they will have another cash-call or required to pay hefty finance cost due to the large capex....
As usual, I won't be touching OCK until i can see the FCF flowing in (i rather play as Telco tower REITs)
Note : Cash stood on 54M , LT borrowing at 177.85M , ST Borrowing at 283M , With interest payment of nearing 20m per annum (effective rate is 4.28%)....
@CFTrader Note : Cash stood on 54M , LT borrowing at 177.85M , ST Borrowing at 283M , With interest payment of nearing 20m per annum (effective rate is 4.28%)...
+ Trade and other receivables RM300m - Trade and other payables RM110m = net trade receivables RM190m (It looks better after taking into account the net trade receivables - work/service done, waiting to be collected.
- the larger profit expected by analysts in FYE16, but will only happen in FYE18 (better than expected tenancy ratio). It's like a machine not use up to optimum capacity until 2 years later. So, contribution from towerco will grow exponentially from FYE18.
Myanmar & Vietnam TowerCo (forms about 70% of UOB Valuation of about RM1.0b)
Continue to ride the growing telecommunication wave in Myanmar. OCK has completed and hand over 830 sites (as of 25 th of May) of which 754 sites were delivered to Telenor Myanmar and 76 sites to Mytel. While Telenor Myanmar sites deployment appears to be slow (with 166 sites yet to be delivered), OCK has secured and delivered more co- location sites (335 vs. 83 sites in 4Q17) during the quarter. The tenancy ratio for the current 830 sites (including the co-locations) stands at 1.4x vs. 1.29x (with 713 sites) in the preceding quarter. Noteworthy, the group has achieved a milestone in leasing its telecom towers to all four major mobile operators in Myanmar (i.e. MPT, Telenor, Ooredoo and Mytel).
SEATH updates. The group’s Vietnam operation, meanwhile, have a tenancy ratio of 1.29x (with 2,732 tenants under its tower count of 2,118) currently, following the recent acquisition of 118 towers for c.USD1.5m. We understand that the group is having discussion with several towercos to acquire another 700 tower assets, with funding coming from internally generated fund.
If I am a big towerco player (like edotco), I will pay a premium and takeover the entire group, since OCK towerco in Myanmar and Vietnam is growing steadily with very healthy tenancy ratio. Analyst may catergorise them into telecommunication sector, which is facing the headwind recently (OCK's telco services only comprise about 30% of the entire valuation).
On contrary, the towerco business (valued around 70% of the SOTP), is doing quite well, and the profit growth is "incremental", as a result of increases in number of towers AND increases of tenancy ratio. Hopefully, the next 2-3 quarters, the earnings improvements is substantial enough to attract "foreign" and "local" institutional investors. Until the figures comes in, it may be difficult for retail investors to understand this towerco business model, as non was listed in Malaysia.
(Of course, many are disappointed as the price have not reflect the forthcoming growth).
more fiberisation project in Malaysia soon after TM & TNB terminate JV......more tower project as well when Gobind push for lower broadband price and wider coverage....Q3 & Q4 seem bright..
China Tower IPO next few weeks (use as reference, cannot be compared as restructuring done by China Tower is unique as shown by VFTRADER "very creative" article). Hopefully bring some positive awareness to local and foreign institution investors in Malaysia. Also good for edotco. With 5G on the way, potential is great.
Filipino company ISOC Infrastructures has teamed up with Malaysia’s OCK Group Berhad to build 25,000 cell towers across the Philippines in seven years.
We began operations in Myanmar with 1,250 towers and a 1.54x tenancy ratio. In the two years since, edotco Myanmar has grown its tower count by approximately 30%, with 3,400 tenancies and a 2.0x tenancy ratio (as of March 2018).
Zai Zai Filipino company ISOC Infrastructures has teamed up with Malaysia’s OCK Group Berhad to build 25,000 cell towers across the Philippines in seven years.
I went and asked the fund managers during the dinner time. When i quoted OCK to them, they said don't like because this Company basically just burning money. Growth is good but profitability and cashflow is a must. The founder of this Company basically because of his ego just wanted to spend like nobody business
@warchest, thanks for the insights. Perhaps you can elaborate. The 1Q18, shows that the net interest expense is about RM4.7m, and EBITDA is about RM20-22m, it looks ok to me, unless I missed out something. (of course, I think they need to pay the principal as well, but the EBITDA is set to grow from RM100m to RM140m in next one or two years). Do share your view.
Post a Comment
People who like this
New Topic
You should check in on some of those fields below.
Title
Category
Comment
Confirmation
Click Confirm to delete this Forum Thread and all the associated comments.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
abang_misai
2,590 posts
Posted by abang_misai > 2018-06-02 06:56 | Report Abuse
Ock now recovering from its low. Soon Sifu will come out from caves and ask bilis to buy. Hehe. This has been Sifu’s modus operandi.