Posted by SamuelLuke > 2019-01-07 17:03 | Report Abuse

Wait till they announce dividend

Posted by Victor Yen > 2019-01-09 11:30 | Report Abuse

Looking forward to above rm5

Posted by Jaya > 2019-01-10 08:42 | Report Abuse

Victor Yen
Will happen patience bro

Posted by firehawk > 2019-01-10 15:24 | Report Abuse

fat ass hardly moves ....

Posted by Hartalega > 2019-01-10 15:25 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by predictor1234 > 2019-01-10 23:08 | Report Abuse

coming

Posted by Orange88 > 2019-01-11 00:22 | Report Abuse

News inkambing

Posted by SamuelLuke > 2019-01-11 16:46 | Report Abuse

Someone bring this Korean lady to gym pls ....moving slow....

Posted by miketyu > 2019-01-14 11:22 | Report Abuse

same fate with PCHEM?

Posted by Joseph > 2019-01-14 11:23 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by chshzhd > 2019-01-15 14:17 | Report Abuse

good counter to invest..

Posted by Slimy > 2019-01-15 19:34 | Report Abuse

http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1829277/%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82%E4%BB%8A%E5%B9%B4%E6%96%99%E5%A2%9E43%EF%BC%8E%E7%9F%B3%E5%8C%96%E9%A2%86%E5%9F%9F%E7%9F%AD%E6%9C%9F3%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9%E7%BC%A0%E8%BA%AB

Posted by carry > 2019-01-15 20:33 | Report Abuse

beware

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-16 09:59 | Report Abuse

coming Q profit supposed to be good as naphtha raw material price has come down

its business model different from petchem

Petchem relies on natural gas, LCTitan uses naphtha

something like that... I also don't know details... agak agak only

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-16 10:01 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/48458.jsp

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-16 10:05 | Report Abuse

LCT, a large consumer of naphtha at c.2-2.3m MTPA would be a significant beneficiary of depressed crude oil prices, in our view.

We expect product spread to improve as naphtha and ethylene prices have dropped in tandem; this is positive for its profit margins as PU at its Indonesian ops is also ramping up.

We estimate that for every US$10/mt drop in average naphtha price would rake in savings of c.US$23m in feedstock costs.

We reiterate our BUY recommendation on the stock with an unchanged SOP-derived TP of RM7.25. We believe prolonged lower oil price is a key catalyst to the stock price.

Key beneficiary of low crude prices

The plunge in crude oil price has sent naphtha prices lower; naphtha price is now at c.US$500/mt, over 20% lower than 3Q18 average price of US$680/mt. We believe LCT is a key winner in the current low crude price scenario; its annual consumption of c.2-2.3m MTPA of naphtha (produced mainly from crude oil) as its main production feedstock accounts for c.50-70% of total operating cost.

RM18m savings for each US$10/mt drop in naphtha

Prior to 2018, LCT consumes 2m MTPA of naphtha, on average. With the new TE3 plant (began operation at end 2017), LCT now consumes c.2.3m MTPA (Table 1). We estimate that every US$10/mt drop in average naphtha price could net annual savings of US$23m (RM92m @ RM4/US$) in feedstock cost. Assuming it retains 20% of the savings (from being passed on to buyer), LCT’s could add c.RM18m in gross profits or +1.5%.

Ethylene-PE spread widened

The plunge in ethylene price has widened the ethylene-PE spread to c.US$300/mt (Chart 2). We expect the PU at LCT’s Indonesia plants to improve as management noted PU was kept low at c.70% during unfavourable ethylene-PE spread market.

Maintaining utilisation rate

Its 9M18 PU stood at 84% (9M17: 69%), slightly below the guidance of 85% for 2018. Management noted that the TE3 plant is currently under a 3-month general maintenance shutdown and would resume by Jan 2019. Still, management believes it is on track to achieve its target as other downstream plants will be running as normal.

Reiterate BUY call, undemanding valuation

Reiterate BUY with an unchanged SOP-derived TP of RM7.25. We note that the stock currently trades at undemanding multiple of 9.3x FY18 ex-cash P/E before easing to 8.1x in FY19. We believe prolonged lower oil price is a key catalyst to share price.

Source: BIMB Securities Research - 27 Nov 2018

Posted by Ricky Kiat > 2019-01-16 10:55 | Report Abuse

bro icon888, my concern is petchem build a new plant at pengerang(2019),likely use naphtha as material. pls check.

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2019-01-16 11:13 | Report Abuse

never trust TP { analyst call }

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-16 11:24 | Report Abuse

yes, same concern here

but all these becomes non issue when you put on a long term investor cap

why pick this for long term ?

ask yourself what kind of company is this ?

answer : a world class company. It has economy of scale, financial resources, expertise and proper governance to go very far

I can see traces of moat in this group (anyway, I am not a big fan of moat, I am not obsessed with it. I believe it is a topic that need to be revisited and challenged, after Buffett promulgated it as the holy grail for long term portfolio success)

buy now, put aside, hold for lets say, 10 years, ride the cycles, let it grow organically (yes, nowadays I have become very patient). Let your money works for you

no guarantee it will work, but it is a rational bet

that is my game plan


Posted by Ricky Kiat > Jan 16, 2019 10:55 AM | Report Abuse

bro icon888, my concern is petchem build a new plant at pengerang(2019),likely use naphtha as material. pls check.

Posted by Ricky Kiat > 2019-01-16 12:01 | Report Abuse

thanks,bro icon888, i agree ur game plan.

Posted by wilsonchan87 > 2019-01-16 17:19 | Report Abuse

hold for long term. the rebounding of recent oil price still in weak, dont think oil able to climb up 80 end of this year

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2019-01-16 17:35 | Report Abuse

Long term la..

It's in my secondary core holdings (potential blue chips) along with HLIND, SAM, ORIENT etc...

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-16 17:38 | Report Abuse

wah our portfolio very similar woh

Lctitan, hlind , oriental, sam

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2019-01-16 20:20 | Report Abuse

Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 16, 2019 05:38 PM | Report Abuse

wah our portfolio very similar woh

Lctitan, hlind , oriental, sam


Lol great mind think alike...

those are my core holdings. i have exposure to 28 stocks.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-16 20:24 | Report Abuse

My portfolio 35 Malaysia stocks

2 foreign stocks : Taiwan semicon and Nvidia

Posted by cheoky > 2019-01-16 20:27 | Report Abuse

Icon8888 very active recently....Ate Viagra? Hopefully your stocks too.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-16 20:32 | Report Abuse

Market hot mah

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2019-01-16 20:39 | Report Abuse

wow Icon...u have more stocks than me

I thought i'm one of the rare breeds who cant stop buying stocks.

Posted by abang_misai > 2019-01-16 20:40 | Report Abuse

Too active. Content penned as if not from him.

Posted by sharkcoming > 2019-01-18 15:46 | Report Abuse

worth to stock in now? the coming quarter report will be very good due to low cost of sales hehehehe

Posted by Jururawat > 2019-01-19 10:00 | Report Abuse

Wo wo wo icon8888 was here... Waiting time to get in

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-19 10:04 | Report Abuse

It is a good company

We humbly and patiently hold on lah

Hopefully one day can make money

Right or not ?

Posted by soojinhou > 2019-01-19 10:17 | Report Abuse

There will supposedly be a deluge of naphtha when rapid fires up. That's great news for lctitan for it is their feedstock.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-19 10:20 | Report Abuse

Oh really ? I read from analyst reports that Rapid is supposed to increase competition for Lctitan. Didn’t realise there is a raw material angle

Posted by Her Sin > 2019-01-19 16:09 | Report Abuse

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=289323125275315&id=232966120911016

Posted by SamuelLuke > 2019-01-22 11:07 | Report Abuse

After new yr if they announce dividend....lagi......

Posted by eunsung > 2019-01-22 12:52 | Report Abuse

2019-02-12 for Korea Lotte chemical 2018 4Q announcement.
LCT should be same day or 1day before.

Posted by Dakewlest > 2019-01-22 13:58 | Report Abuse

Good to buy?

Posted by foreverchung > 2019-01-22 18:42 | Report Abuse

I think after div ex date should be okay? I don't anticipate too much tbh lol. But I willing to invest long term.

Posted by MrStark > 2019-01-23 20:31 | Report Abuse

From the previous financial data, the revenue for LCTitan is increasing steadily. Lower crude oil price was also observed in the last quarter of 2018. Couple with the probable announcement of dividend, higher share price is anticipated

Posted by somo1 > 2019-01-25 12:57 | Report Abuse

Lotte is testing everyone's patience. Good company yet no price performance thus far. Guess it'll only move upon release of the quarterly end January. Sit tight...

Posted by Victor Yen > 2019-01-25 18:54 | Report Abuse

Real angpow

Posted by ccoolkai > 2019-01-26 20:00 | Report Abuse

Don't expect a outstanding result. Naphtha price discount will not take effect so fast.

Posted by Infinite > 2019-01-26 21:01 | Report Abuse

Previous Q4 result so good, don't expect better results, the most is stagnant

Posted by LouiseS > 2019-01-27 07:42 | Report Abuse

Only listed for less than 2 years, have one year full earning records only. The PE ratio is 9.2, ROE 9.4%, and dividend yield 4.97%, continue to observe performance

https://louisesinvesting.blogspot.com/2019/01/preliminary-screening-of-counters-with_56.html

Posted by SamuelLuke > 2019-01-28 16:05 | Report Abuse

Louise if taking your chart as reference lctitan is a better buy comparing petchem, if check it’s NTA n DY right???

Posted by staind86 > 2019-01-30 09:35 | Report Abuse

Usually when oil price drop, the nearest quarter will suffer. Because the inventory is produced using high cost raw material, but selling at lower price due to resin price drop.

My bet is profit will drop significantly.

Posted by enning22 > 2019-01-30 09:48 | Report Abuse

don't be silly, oil price already slided for quite a long time, atleast few months already, every thing was averaged out, shouldn't be a issue.

Posted by Dericlock > 2019-01-30 09:51 | Report Abuse

There's a delay on the selling price as reflected to the raw material price movement. Previous quarters LCTitan at lower margin due to higher raw material price.

So this coming quarter, selling price is mostly still maintain and thus margin believed to be improved due to lower raw material price.

Posted by staind86 > 2019-01-30 10:36 | Report Abuse

Later quarterly out, see who is silly. Drop 80 to 90% you don't be surprise.