Posted by Val-Elta > 2020-04-30 10:36 | Report Abuse

When in future someone new want to invest in LCTITAN, there will be almost no more shares available for sale from the usual public share holders like you and me, basically top 30 shareholders will be holding close to 98% of the shares already.

Posted by BornToSpeculate > 2020-04-30 10:42 | Report Abuse

If they privatize, big funds are the losers going in at IPO at RM6.5 and now exiting about this price. Not sure if SC will allow that to happen. I would think parent co is buying back some shares now and planning to push up the price and sell some back at a higher price to comply with shareholder spread.

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-04-30 10:43 | Report Abuse

Yes. ONly top holders can buy this much. Let me tell you, the retail investors were scared the shit out of their pants when it dropped to 1.50 and most ran off. Only big players are able to buy these many shares. Non other than EPF / LOTTE CHEM KOREA

Posted by Val-Elta > 2020-04-30 10:49 | Report Abuse

What i want to say is, as 2018 AR report, top 30 share holders owned 95.2% of the shares.
And in just these 4 days' trading volume, 7.5% of total shares is traded.
95.2+7.5% exceed 100% of the shareholding already...

So it's possible that top 30 shareholders now even hold 100% of the entire shareholding spread.
These 4 days trading volume is certainly not done by you or me.....

When top 30 shareholders owns 98-99% of the shares, the share price will be very very steady, especially considering they have the holding power and is looking at 1-2 years time frame of investment.

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-04-30 10:50 | Report Abuse

Spot on. Push out the retailers. We are sitting on small pile of shares available for sale. Supply < demand and price goes up naturally

Posted by Teo Hock Song > 2020-04-30 10:53 | Report Abuse

RM2 mou man Tai la

Posted by FreshMango > 2020-04-30 10:56 | Report Abuse

noob retailers . baka . go away .

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-04-30 11:06 | Report Abuse

this is the price of naphtha which accounts for 60%-70% of their material cost. Drop of 75%. Their total cost of goods sold should drop by 75% x 60% = 45%. So say this quarter the cost is 1.6b. For the same volume their cost should drop by 45% for next quarter = RM 720m- ish. THAT IS GROSS PROFIT.

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-04-30 11:06 | Report Abuse

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/naphtha

Posted by BornToSpeculate > 2020-04-30 11:12 | Report Abuse

From old article.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/lotte-chemical-titan-debuts-on-main-market-of-bursa-malaysia-9022556


Lee said the company today is the largest integrated producer of olefins and polyolefins, as well as the sole producer of butadiene in Malaysia, and the largest polyethylene producer in Indonesia.

Although LCT may face competition from the Petronas Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated Development (RAPID) project, he noted that the industry is in a strong demand growth area, and the market should be able to fully absorb the supplied materials.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2020-04-30 11:13 | Report Abuse

not really xterror, you cannot just calculate like that, when the cost of production is lower, this is applicable to LC's competitors as well, they will reduce their selling prices accordingly, and LC will reduce their selling price too.

You can't just assume that a drop in 40% will result in 40% increase of margin.

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-04-30 11:20 | Report Abuse

True val. But Q1 price is pretty much the price now in fact it was lower than the current prices for PP and PE - due to strong demand for PP and PE for PPE and masks.

So it's safe to assume the prices remain as Q1 or higher:
HDPE : http://hdpe.100ppi.com/
PP: http://pp.100ppi.com/

these are direct quotes from china factories and are more updated than when you search on other online platforms, like
https://www.investing.com/commodities/lldpe-futures

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-04-30 11:22 | Report Abuse

This is where we arbitrage profits before market comes into senses - or rather before they announce the next QR. Again this only holds for current oil prices. When the economy engine starts then the demand for PP and PE will further increase and we will expect higher prices, lower costs, for LCTITAN.

Posted by BornToSpeculate > 2020-04-30 11:23 | Report Abuse

IF you want to be conservative just look at conversion / processing margin ( from raw material to finished goods ). But that would be accurate coz selling prices are also increasing in this case

Posted by JayC88 > 2020-04-30 11:26 | Report Abuse

sold off the batch i bought yesterday after report out (1.51) easy profits, come come sell more

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-04-30 11:27 | Report Abuse

Jay, you're too early.... What is RM 1.70 (3.6b market cap) for a company that is going to earn RM 1 billion a year?

Posted by JayC88 > 2020-04-30 11:29 | Report Abuse

xterrorsinx, no worry i still keep 400 lots. i just sold the 200 lots i bought yesterday. ikan bilis here only wanna earn pocket money haha.

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-04-30 11:35 | Report Abuse

Ok, Good luck!

Posted by titan3322 > 2020-04-30 11:36 | Report Abuse

my view is that it will close strongly today but do not chase if you have missed the boat . This stock is held by many investment bankers and some funds some are closing the books today sure mau kasi cantik2. If fact those who are holding a big chunck can consider to take some profits today and buy back in May

Posted by JayC88 > 2020-04-30 11:39 | Report Abuse

don't forget dividend of 7 sen per share EX date on 8th May 2020!

Posted by titan3322 > 2020-04-30 11:53 | Report Abuse

competitor PChem also went up 29 sen by but by percentage lctitan gained more

Posted by Michael Kwok > 2020-04-30 11:57 | Report Abuse

The trusted name speaking.Please read.The last post I speak on 29 April(when i speak its u turn from low rm 1.51 to up 5-6 cents on tht day and now its boom.

Posted by Michael Kwok > Apr 29, 2020 11:26 AM | Report Abuse X

The highest is 6.50 high till lower end rm 1.Now rm 1.57.Wht a bargain.I sleep well.A big investment of over rm 30k.Government approved full operation.
Posted by Michael Kwok > Apr 20, 2020 2:40 PM | Report Abuse X

I already see the chart.Monthly oversold but hooking up,weekly oversold but hooking up.Good sign.I dun expect drop dramatically along the price recovery.These counter a proxy to play due to Covid 19.I set TP above rm 3.

Michael Kwok
1812 posts
Posted by Michael Kwok > Apr 20, 2020 12:55 PM | Report Abuse X

I bought 200 lot at 1.59 using over 30k.The biggest allocation after Benalec at 16 cents using 25k.People sold I buy.Last time Lotte over rm 5.50 down till lower end rm 1.


Michael Kwok
1819 posts
Posted by Michael Kwok > Apr 29, 2020 2:34 PM | Report Abuse X

Excuse me not several hundred millions losses.only 100 over million this quarter.U may not know last 2 quarter will be 200 millions profit Above.Invest about futures not present.

Posted by tallman > 2020-04-30 12:00 | Report Abuse

Wah loss making also can up 10%

Posted by Michael Kwok > 2020-04-30 12:01 | Report Abuse

Then James is later then me 9 days lah.

Posted by Michael Kwok > 2020-04-30 12:06 | Report Abuse

Mine the nearest it's u turn.Not James on 29April.Check the chart u all know.Mine with TP on the 20th of April.

Posted by potenza10 > 2020-04-30 12:32 | Report Abuse

who is James?

Posted by investortrader88 > 2020-04-30 12:56 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/lotte-chemical-titan-gain-crude-oil-price-collapse-%E2%80%94-ta-securities

Posted by weixiang98 > 2020-04-30 13:05 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by titan3322 > 2020-04-30 14:17 | Report Abuse

investortrader88 TA target price for this stock is only 1.65 ? hehe while maybank 1.85 so we take the in between ?

Posted by deadchicken > 2020-04-30 14:49 | Report Abuse

So whole world bear market ended?

Posted by LA777 > 2020-04-30 14:54 | Report Abuse

Go, up to rm2 soon.

Posted by investortrader88 > 2020-04-30 14:54 | Report Abuse

1.2million shares finished in few seconds.so fierce lctitan this afternoon !

Posted by deadchicken > 2020-04-30 14:55 | Report Abuse

up too fast. unbelievable!!

Posted by potenza10 > 2020-04-30 14:56 | Report Abuse

exit at 1.72 just now...sighhh!!!

Posted by stockraider > 2020-04-30 14:57 | Report Abuse

Unstoppable mah....why simply exit leh ??

Posted by potenza10 > Apr 30, 2020 2:56 PM | Report Abuse

exit at 1.72 just now...sighhh!!!

Posted by investortrader88 > 2020-04-30 14:58 | Report Abuse

@titan3322.those ibs tp we can only read as reference.LC TITAN share price is worth more than RM 1.85.

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-04-30 15:01 | Report Abuse

i only have 4000 lots left. Sold 2000 lots couldnt buy back

Posted by NB2020 > 2020-04-30 15:03 | Report Abuse

y bad result price will up arr?

Posted by jackson88 > 2020-04-30 15:04 | Report Abuse

Don’t sell yet ....I just heard got a privatization deal going on. Price at RM3 to RM3.50. In negotiation.

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-04-30 15:05 | Report Abuse

Privatisation Rumours surfacing dy. they can't meet their public spread.

Posted by BornToSpeculate > 2020-04-30 15:05 | Report Abuse

The loss was smaller than expected and 80m of the loss was due to write down of inventory. One-off item, non recurring.

Posted by JayC88 > 2020-04-30 15:14 | Report Abuse

regret selling just now at 1.71...

Posted by newcomer1388 > 2020-04-30 15:29 | Report Abuse

regret didnt buy 1.50

Posted by titan3322 > 2020-04-30 15:32 | Report Abuse

CIMB has a target price of only 1.97 for this stock

Posted by BornToSpeculate > 2020-04-30 15:39 | Report Abuse

titan can share cimb report thanks

Posted by stockraider > 2020-04-30 15:42 | Report Abuse

I think the sellers are the instuition & not the retailers loh...!!

Posted by xterrorsinx > Apr 30, 2020 10:50 AM | Report Abuse

Spot on. Push out the retailers. We are sitting on small pile of shares available for sale. Supply < demand and price goes up naturally

Posted by Val-Elta > 2020-04-30 15:46 | Report Abuse

both seller and buyers is institutes, 60 millions shares traded today, how many retailers have 60 millions of shares to sell.

More importantly, in this bear age, how many retailers can have 100 million to buy LC today? even if you say sharks and syndicates, do they really play at the 100m ranges? This is just today's volume only.

If add in the total 4 days of huge buy volume, that's 180m shares, * 1.5 average price.. 240million in total !! A quarter of a billion ringgit leh... it's beyond sharks or syndicate level already i think

Posted by Val-Elta > 2020-04-30 15:49 | Report Abuse

40+47+45 million in those past 3 days of volume + 60m shares today.
192 million shares traded... average 1.5 = 288 million !!!

more than a quarter of 1 billion leh..

Posted by InvestmentLab > 2020-04-30 15:53 | Report Abuse

Rocket up today! Net cash company. Can see ppl start accumulate around price 1.25 from the volume.

For more: https://www.facebook.com/InvestmentLab123

Posted by potenza10 > 2020-04-30 15:56 | Report Abuse

pls drop below 1.70