It is too bad that the Management Guru's company has to file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection last year if not mistaken.
Business and economic environment are in constant flux and a fixed set of management strategy will not be able to cope with ever changing business environment, or worse still, lead the business to Holland
Thriving in chaos will be the order of the day and the ability of the management to strategize to overcome chaos or to actively managing it will be the key
Have U notice your LESSON 7 actually started........??
Pls pardon raider.....for not alerting u all loh.....but u know lah......this visiting professor investsmart actually also chip in in your lesson.....esp at more advance level & but a bit theretical loh....to avoid confusion raider need to refute (although most principle of investmentsmart boleh pakai) especially some of the negative points & bad practise loh.......!!!
U see raider is a practical man.....thus raider will only use practical formula loh.....!!!
Drawing From raider's rapid experience , raider wants u to avoid pitfall & risk mah.......!!!
Especially the area calling u all valuing & justifying stock price beyond Ben Graham principle of margin of safety loh.....!!
Finally raider...want to apologise to newbies for jumping topics mah....by right & step by step ,U all should finish gambling lesson b4....advancing to investment lesson mah.....!!
But still ....raider's insight & basis of arguement with visiting prof investmentsmart should give u an eye opener of how a successful & better investment model should be loh....!!!
If u don bet in the gambling table but invest in the stockmarket.....your odds of winning is even much higher loh....!!!
What u need to do is just manage your luck....!!! U just patiently wait & select the investment u got an advantage mah.....!!! Overvalue like Nestle Rm 68.00..... PE 30X means negative return loh.....!!! Don bet mah.....!! U benchmark loh....!!! Generally now bluechips is not more than PE 16X mah......!!!
If there are no bluechips to select....u can also consider other stock like raider ......34 napshot & 6 nextbluecips.....PE most not more than 10x loh....!!! Here u get positive expected value bcos of undervalue mah......!!!
For investors.....this is opportunity loh....!!! To get great value loh......!!!
But pls on guard....the tendency to gamble....like chasing active stocks like harvest, nicorp or buying into overvalue nestle or conman over gear guanchong loh...!! All these are Mr Market trick mah.......!!!
Be discipline loh.......do not follow these danger loh.......!!!
For Gamblers & speculators tak boleh tahan & cannot wait for action.....can look into RCWPROVE$$ System for relief mah.....!!!
Lesson 7 .....to continue soon......!!!
NEWBIES PLEASE NOTE THIS GAMBLING FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLE
YES AS A SAVVY PUNTERS & GAMBLERS- U USE RAIDER'S ODDS MANAGEMENT, LUCK MANAGEMENT AND MONEY MANAGENT.....U CAN EVEN THE ODDS AGST THE BIG STRONG HOUSE LOH.....!!
BUT WHAT IF THE GAMBLERS KNOW CARDS COUNTING AS WELL ? HE WILL BE MORE TERROR ISN'T ?
HOWEVER THE GAMBLING HOUSE KNOWING THIS OBVIOUS GAMBLERS ADVANTAGE..!!....TO CUSHION THE HOUSE DISADVANTAGE BY IMPOSING PLAYINGS CARDS WITH UPTO 7 DECKS...& PLAYING UPTO 75% OF THE CARDS ONLY LOH....!!! THIS TECH COMPLETELY REMOVE THE SAVVY GAMBLERS CARD COUNTING ADVANTAGE LOH......!!
BUT ALL IS NOT LOST LOH.......!!! CARD COUNTING ADVANTAGE CAN STILL USE IN OTHER FIELD, THAT ALLOW THE GAMBLERS TO MAKE MONIES.....!!!
RAIDER CALL THIS EVOLUTION OF CARD COUNTING ADVANTAGE LOH.....!!!
LESSON 7 CONTINUE.....TO TAKE YOUR GAMBLING SKILLS OF CARD COUNTING TO NEW FRONTIERS.....THE STOCKMARKET LOH....!!! YES STOCKMARKET....IS THE ONLY GAMBLING AVENUE WHERE CARD COUNTING....IS NOT COMPLETE BAN LOH......!!! THEREFORE U CAN MAKE USE OF YOUR GAMBLING ADVANTAGE LOH.....!!!
BESIDE THE AVAILABLE OF FINANCIAL INFO ALSO GIVE U A HEAD START LOH....!!! BTW THIS ALSO A FORM OF CARD COUNTING FOR THE FUNDAMENTAL INVESTOR MAH....!!
BELOW IS A COMPREHENSIVE FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK LOH.....!!!
ONE VELI IMPORTANT RAIDER'S TRAINING principle FOR INVESTORS, SPECULATORS, TRADERS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
" U DON HAVE TO BE BETTER ANYONE ELSE.....JUST BETTER THAN WHAT U USE TO BE!!"....that would mean Raider achieve his training objective loh....!!
A FUNDAMENTAL WALK THRU TRAINING BY CO TRAINER INVESTSMART LOH.....!!!
Keys to Successful Investing
Know Yourself - your aptitude mah Know your investing objectives-strategy Know your time horizon-period Know your risk tolerance-risk taking Know your financial capacity and reserves- monies can set aside
Know your investing philosophy and strategy- keep & develop napshot strategy Keep it simple and safe (relevant, powerful and focussed)-PE, cashflow, nta, strong balance sheet, good dividend-veli simple Never lose money (Rule No 1 and Rule No 2 of Warren Buffett )- buy at a big discount got margin of safety mah Develop and stay with your investing philosophy and strategy (value investing, long term)- allow time for it to grow loh Know the difference between investing and speculation/gambling (avoid speculation and gambling)-margin of safety & Mr Market Avoid market timing (a most dangerous game to play, best avoided)-Selective stock picking (earning power, economic moat, durable competitive advantage, franchise value)- monopoly or near monopoly or business got brand loh Know your rules for buying (circle of competence, margin of safety, buy quality, great companies at wonderful price)-stick to knitting Know your rules for selling (sell the losers- fundamentals deteriorated permanently or underperformers)-like F&N loss coca cola loh Know your rules for portfolio management (concentrated, defensive and offensive strategies)-strategise where like more dividend Keep good records to guide your investing (an essential to your success in your investing journey)-learn from mistake Reinvest your dividends and dollar cost averaging (take advantage of compounding)-save & invest
Ongoing activities to invest for the future Continue to learn and explore-keep up todate. Continue to master the understanding of all types of businesses-learn about business Continue to master valuation of business - know value business Continue to master the understanding of market behaviour and Mr. Market- take advantage of Mr Market Continue to master behavioural finance to understand herd and individual behaviour.-Investment Psychology Continue to learn, develop, refine and explore investing knowledge, concepts and applications-learn from free training given by raider. Continue to research companies and businesses-read annual report, prospectus, ipo & scuttlebutt. Continue to seek opportunities in good and bad markets- capitalise on MR market.
ALTHOUGH THE ABOVE IS TARGETTED TO INVESTOR, BUT IF U R A GAMBLER, TRADER OR SPECULATOR.....MOST OF THESE POINTS HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE ALSO CAN BE USED MAH......!!!
IF U THINK OTHERWISE.....PLS HIGHLIGHT AS A GAMBLER. TRADER OR SPECULATORS.....WHICH POINT CANNOT PAKAI LOH....??!!
THIS MEANS INVESTMENT, TRADING, SPECULATION AND GAMBLING CAN MIX MAH......!!!
LESSON 7 TO BE CONTINUE SOON....................!!!!
A VELI IMPORTANT LIFE REVISION.....THAT CHANGE YOUR INVESTMENT STRATEGY FOR THE BETTER....!!!
LESSON 7 CONTINUE....VELI VELI IMPORTANT FUNDAMENTAL LESSON.....NEWBIES NEED TO MASTER IN ORDER TO BE A GREAT INVESTOR, SPECULATORS, TRADER & GAMBLER LOH......!!!
PLEASE PAY ATTENTION LOH (RAIDER WOULD SAY U HAS MASTER AT LEAST 20% IMPORTANT SKILLS REQUIRED FOR CONSISTENT SUCCESS, IF U HAD MASTER THIS AREA WHICH RAIDER HIGHLIGHTED BELOW LOH :
What are the punters advantage over the house ?
1) They can manage luck.....!! 2)They can chose when to place their bets...!! (timing) 3) They can manage their monies the way they like....!!!
This means punter can indirectly even their disadvantage with the house loh....!!!
Yes u can manage luck....u can go to temple or tukang tilik before u place your bets loh.....! must improve your luck mah....!! Timing.....preferably u only place your bets .....when the house is in the losing streak loh or u r in the lucky streak mah.....!!! U can bet big , bet small or not at all......that means u control your bets & destiny loh.....!!!
Can u apply the same technique in your speculation & investment ?
PLEASE DO THE ABOVE EXCERCISE REGULARLY TO MAINTAIN YOUR TIP TOP GAMBLING FRAME OF MIND LOH.....!!!
Spotting Multi Baggers In The Making- A DALI'S APPROACH MODIFIED BY RAIDER LOH....!! WHY RAIDER MODIFIED LEH ? BCOS RAIDER DO NOT ADVOCATE OVERVALUE TAIL END MOMENTUM PLAY LIKE DALI LOH....!! ALTHOUGH CAN MAKE MONIES BUT RISKY MAH.....!!!
Multi baggers are harder to come by as the market reaches its all time high. PIE is definitely an emerging multi bagger in the making. The characteristics of a multi-bagger:
a) OVERLOOKED - Investors in general have failed to anticipate the changed business model, which gives rise to sustained exponential growth in EPS and solid margins over a prolonged period of at least 2-4 years. PIE fits the bill.
b) UNDER RESEARCHED / INSTITUTIONAL - Funds are generally not in yet as the counter is under researched, the ones who can manage to get in early are the private investors who did their homework diligently. For PIE's case, those who bought over the last 1 years, and the amount which they managed to buy was not significant anyway.
c) LIQUIDITY / VALUATION - One of the main reasons the stock was under researched was because there was no liquidity. There was noi liquidity because the owners were busily collecting shares, even PIE employees & MAJOR ASSOCIATES have been ploughing their monies into buying the stock every month. Hence without proper liquidity the market cannot accord a fair price to the stock. Or a fair valuation.
d) CATALYST - The POTENTIAL massive re-rating has begun in earnest owing to the corporate exercise which will jump total shares from just below 64m to nearly a 130M shares on a POTENTIAL BONUS Already there are plenty of funds lining up to put in their bids which had a massive re-rating upwards owing to better liquidity.FURTHERMORE AT PE 7X, CASH RICH, BIG DIVIDEND AND STRONG BALANCE SHEET ENTAIL A STRONG RERATING MAH Why liquidity is foremost in obtaining good valuation? Once funds can move in and out, they will want to own the shares especially when valuations and growth prospects are still very compelling.
e) SIZE - A most important factor in a multi bagger is the size. You want IOI Corp to make 50% in appreciation in its share price now, its a phenomenal task as the market cap is RM 36bn. Thats why I have been advocating SMALL CAP COMPANY. PIEs market cap can go from RM320M OR FROM RM 5.00 PER SHARE to more than RM1bn OR RM 15.00 PER SHARE in 1-3 years without needing us to really expand our imagination beyond the realms of practicality.
f) SUSTAINED RUN UP IN EARNINGS - Look at the youthfulness of the THE PIE BUSINESS AND PROSPECT, the CAPACITY will kick in higher as they SUSTAINED and they are still GROWING. Who else will have access to add more BUSINESS WITH MEDICAL DEVICE AND APPLE CONTRACT if not FOR THE BIG PARENT HONG HAI ? Hint ... HONG HAI market cap OVER RM100 BILLION..... take all that in, which counter will post significant EPS growth for the next 3 years at least. Which counter will be better able to inject more BUSINESS liberally and having it to be huge kicker to bottom line IN THE TINY PIE COMPANY.
g) EARLY - To get a multi bagger, you must be early. At just below RM 5, is it still early? Who do you think have the confidence to buy at RM4.00 with no news, very few, hence you should check on actual trades and you will find very minimal. What you want to judge is how was the buying been after the potential corporate announcement:
Having use your warrant as a leverage game or offensive play to increase max firing power to reap big rewards............. & having to use your warrant as a defensive play....as a hedge lock in your potential gain......the next strategy is turn in your warrant into undervalue play.......especially when it trade at a discount.....when it close to maturity loh....!! Raider will try to elaborate the strategy later.....b4 that newbies.....need to understand....there are different investment behavior for both company's issue warrant & 3rd party sponsored call warrant loh......!!!
Generally speaking.....most call warrant play.....are being rigged by big boys loh.....!! This is possible bcos the big boys .....understand the gambling psychology of the msian derivative mkt & their naviety mah....!!! Also there have a mechanism to take advantage of the warrant investor follies loh.....!!!
What raider mentioned of using warrant as a conservative leverage & gearing play are being exaggerated to entice unsuspecting warrant players who do not understand the art of gambling & how they are being taking advantage of loh ?!!!
sifu raider.......have been looking all over for u and finally found u here.....the snapshop that u provide in investlah is growing in price.....thanks (my TAFI have been growing from 30 sen till now (more than 65 sen).....
uncle kena banned 5days... for manipulate share price
ha ha ha....
i just post mention that buy a counter at a comfortable price together then discuss when to exit that also call manipulate..that is also uncle not yet buy aswell.
i also puzzled...
may be they feel im capable to manipulate the share price....if yes...dont say banned 5 days lar..can even send me to jail like repco low.... ha ha
1) OSK takeover OSKprop & PJD......by issuing OSK share at rm 2.00. 1.1) These share is issue without entitlement of Rm 0.15 special div & 1 for 4 Bonus warrant, thus effectively valuing OSK around Rm 2.36 for the existing OSK shareholders.
2) RHBcap take over of CIMB and MBSB......now with EPF cannot vote ?!.....most likely the corporate exercise may revise to more platable to Aabar......that will mean a value of Rm 11.80 .....for the deal to go through loh...!! Alternative this deal may be call off.....giving opportunity for Maybank to come in. 2.1) Even the deal call off RHB shareholder still enjoy good value in view of other potential suitors loh....!!
What is there for OSK shareholder ? A lock in return of min Rm 2.36 from ONG Leong Huat and potential higher rerating from RHB cap....giving a further upside of Rm 3.30 to Rm 3.80 loh....!!
“Competition for deposits to comply with liquidity coverage requirements under Basel III rules is the main factor driving up interbank rates,” Chua Hak Bin, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Singapore, said by phone yesterday. “Falling oil prices, concerns over the fiscal position and 1MDB may be compounding the pressure on both the ringgit and interest rates.” ― Bloomberg
TRUE THE ABOVE ARE THE FACTORS AFFECTING MALAYSIAN ECONOMIES.....BUT WHETHER MARKET HAS FULLY DISCOUNTED IT WITH THE RECENT SELLDOWN ?
OTHER ISSUE AFFECTING MALAYSIA ARE:
1) LOW COMMODITY PRICE OF MAJOR EXPORTS LIKE CRUDE OIL, PALM OIL & RUBBER 2) MALAYSIA STRING OF BAD LUCK LIKE LOST OF 3 AIRCRAFT IN THE SPAN OF 1 YR. 3) MAJOR FLOODS WHICH CAUSE DAMAGE OF RM 2 TO 3 BILLION 4) THE RECENT RISE OF TERRORISM & UNREST IN MSIAN 5) NON COMPETITIVENESS OF MSIA EDUCATION 6) POLITICAL UNREST IN MSIA & CRIME MAKING UNSAFE IN THE EYE OF INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY 7) THE WEAK RULE OF LAW WHICH POTRAY A NEGATIVE ASPECT OF MSIA
ALL THESE FACTORS HAD NEGATED MALAYSIAN STRENGTH.....WHICH USE TO BE 2ND STRONGEST AFTER SINGAPORE, BUT NOW WEAKEN TO BELOW THAILAND LOH......!!
HAVING LISTED SOME OF MAJOR WEAKNESSES......RAIDER IS IN A LOST OF LISTING MALAYSIA STRENGTH, MOST OF STRENGTH EVEN IT IS LISTED......IS SHOWING WEAKENING & DECLINING LOH.....!! PERHAPS SOME READER CAN TRY TO LIST OUT MSIA STRENGTH.....FOR DISCUSSION HERE... TO AVOID THE DOOMSDAY SCENARIO FOR MSIA LOH......!!
IS THERE REALLY A SANTA CLAUS RALLY FOR THE MAT SALLEH ? IS THERE REALLY A CHOYSUN RALLY FOR THE ASIAN AND CHINESE PEOPLE ?
THE ANSWER IS YES....! ESPECIALLY WHEN MARKET HAD ALOT OF PESSIMISM LOH....!
It might not be the most disappointing thing you've ever heard in regards to Santa Claus, but Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader's Almanac has some disappointing news for those still waiting for the eponymous rally to save the markets.
"Everybody likes to say any sort of year-end rally is the Santa Claus rally," says Hirsch. "The Santa Claus rally is the last five days of the year plus the first two days of the next." Now that I feel like a dolt for laying out rally cookies and milk next to the money tree in my living room for the last two weeks Hirsch is free to explain what I'm supposed to do with this new information.
For one thing I can better focus my book. Hirsch says that his version of the rally is shorter in time but makes up for it with returns and powers of prognostication. On the return front, the average gain during those seven trading days has been 1.5 - 1.7% for the last half century. THERE IS A BIAS IN THE MARKET OVER PAST 50 YRS AVERAGE GAIN 1.5% PA JUST 7 DAYS ONLY MAH...!
However, if the market fails to rally, Hirsch believes that in itself is telling. IF NO RALLY IT GOING BE BAD OR SUI FOR THE WHOLE YEAR.....SO BECAREFUL LOH....BEAR SIGN LOH....! PLEASE TAKE NOTE LOH...! BOOCHOWCCCCCCCCC LOH...!
RAIDER SAY, AS THE NEW YEAR & CHRISTMAS DAY ALREADY PASSED.....IT CONFIRMED SANTA HAS COME TO MOST OF THE MAJOR WORLD STOCK MARKET BUT EXCLUDING MALAYSIA LOH. THIS HAS RAMPED OUT MOST OF MAJOR INDEXES ESPECIALLY DOW, SHANGHAI AND NIKKEI.
BUT MALAYSIA IT IS DOWN LOH....BCOS NO SANTA COMING HERE LOH....!! WHY LEH ? BCOS SANTA IS NOT WELCOME MAH
"If Santa Claus should fail to call bears may come to Broad and Wall (Street)," says Hirsch. In 1999 and 2000, as well as 2007 - 08 were recent harbingers of doom when investors would have been well-served to heed. Hirsch himself notes the limitations of basing an investing strategy on seven trading days. It's data mining, and as Hirsch puts it "if you torture numbers long enough you can get them to say anything." What these numbers are telling us is we best pay at least some attention to the trading at the end of next month.
Before blithely dismissing the data look at the tape for the last decade and 2011 in particular. It's not really the place of any investor to start getting snobby about their foolproof methodology, now is it?
ON CHOYSUN RALLY THE AVERAGE GAIN....IS EVEN MORE POWERFUL BASE ON SENIOR ANALYST STUDY AVERAGE GAIN OF 3% PA.........7 DAYS B4 CHINESE NEW YEAR AND 15 DAYS AFTER FOR THE PAST 40 YRS....!
SO ALL MEMBERS JUST PRAY THAT CHOYSUN WILL NOT LIKE SANTA MAH !! & HE WILL COME TO MALAYSIA TO SAVE THE DAY FOR ALL US B4 & AFTER CHINESE NEW YEAR LOH....!
DO U BELIEVE IN SANTA & CHOYSUN RALLY ? RAIDER BELIEVE LOH.......!! MUST HAVE SOME HOPE MAH......!!
Raiders... The source of almost all the weaknesses is the falling oil prices... u can see that as Malaysia is the only one in shit in all of Asean... so if the oil prices stabilise n recover... soon.. Malaysia Boleh lagi again kan??
Raider I would like to write about superlon. Notice it when it announced recent good result and strong dividend. But has forgotten about it. Writing about a stock helps me to sort out my thought process.
Icon, superlon benefit from....is export business & it use oil based input...therefore benefit from the lower oil cost. Its ipo price was rm 720......now paying good dividend mah
Sarifah....the salvation to msia is higher oil price loh....!! How long it take ? Hopefully it can recover to USD 60 b4 Chinese new year loh....!!
FOR STOCK PICKING....GO FOR LOW GEARING AND CASH RICH BALANCE SHEET. PROFITABLE LOW PE & DIVIDEND PAYING.....AND REASONABLE DISCOUNT TO NTA. EXPORT ORIENTATED BUSINESS.
THIS ALLOW....U TO HOLD LONGER....EVEN IF BROAD MARKET & MSIA ECONOMY COLLAPSE & SUFFERED
Post a Comment
People who like this
New Topic
You should check in on some of those fields below.
Title
Category
Comment
Confirmation
Click Confirm to delete this Forum Thread and all the associated comments.
New IPO: The onshore and offshore support services provider for the O&G industry, Steel Hawk Bhd aims to list on the Ace Market!
MQ Trader 3154 views | 3 d ago
0:17
New IPO: The largest mini-market player and a leading groceries retailer in Malaysia, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings Bhd aims to list on the Main Market!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-20 00:35 | Report Abuse
This bcos raider got banned in investlah, despite petty issue. The banned is actually the mistake of admin and not raiderloh...!!