Posted by tonylim > 2014-04-28 09:29 | Report Abuse

Morning

Posted by wonder > 2014-04-28 09:50 | Report Abuse

Sifu Raider,

Wonder still wanna ask about CLIQ, wonder count left count right macam not enough.

CLIQ- Isnt it 357mil cash or 319mil obligation divide by 630mil shares issued (=0.56)?

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 09:56 | Report Abuse

Wonder,

Raider will explain later in the new napshot thread to u later loh...!!
This area will be devoted to investment training, education & philosophy

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 17:49 | Report Abuse

We all know that 90% of people involved in the stock market are losing money. We can also be sure that a majority of these losers are traders who quite often became speculators. And speculators easily graduate to become gamblers. At times, it is quite difficult to differentiate between traders, speculators and gamblers. The only thing common is that they are impatient and eventually end up as losers.


Try to build a good foundation in investment b4 u attempt speculation loh...! Like raider always....understand risk reward odds....margin of safety...the company financial position & psychology....of mkt....b4 raider bet mah....!
Thats the reason why raider....never the 90% of people losing in the mkt loh.....!

Also chose the right mentor, adviser and allies.....that is the reason why raider have Senior Analyst, Tukang Tilik, 009 investigators and Kuda Quek loh..!
Always play for big win & minimise loss loh...!


Yes raider had improve on this thru leech tech...!
U are the designer.....raider & gang are the engineers.....this leech tech is so powerful....until dare claim....the 2nd best player loh...!

If u use leech tech....u can accept any tips....but always do counter checking n risk reward analysis mah...! End of the day...u can adopt n accept...it as yourself...but only after thru research loh....!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 17:51 | Report Abuse

LG Comment,


Why poor reason leh? If market is going to crash like 1997 or 2008 level, then we should sell beforehand.
No harm owning twice the shares with the same capital mah.


RAIDER ANSWER
A VELI VELI GOOD QUESTION ?
RAIDER KNOW ALOT OF PEOPLE WILL THINK LIKE LG ABOVE LOH......!!
PUT IT THIS WAY......FOR TRADER.....IT IS PERFECTLY RIGHT TO SELL......WHEN STOCKMARKET PLAYER SENSE MARKET SELL OFF IS COMING SOON LOH......!!

BUT FOR FUNDAMENTAL INVESTOR.......HE MUST EVALUATE WHETHER THERE IS HUGE MARGIN OF SAFETY OF THE STOCK.?....EVEN HE SENSE TSUNAMI IS COMING LOH.......!!
IF THERE IS A HUGE MARGIN OF SAFETY.....HE SHOULD HOLD TIGHT & EVEN CONSIDER.....BUYING MORE....IF TSUNAMI REALLY HIT LOH.......!!

WHY LIKE THAT FOR FUNDAMENTAL VALUE INVESTOR ?
1) FUNDAMENTAL INVESTMENT IS MR VALUE -IS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF MR MARKET.....!! IT IS ASSESSING MR VALUE V MR MARKET MAH.......!! SO POTENTIAL MARKET SELL OFF IS THE ACTION OF MR MARKET.......SO MR VALUE SHOULD NOT PANIC MAH........!!
2) MARKET IS A VOTING MACHINE IN THE SHORT RUN AND WEIGHING MACHINE IN THE LONG RUN.....SO FUNDAMENTAL INVESTOR SHOULD GO FOR THE LONG RUN MAH.....!!

BASED ON RAIDER OBSERVATION .....EVERYTIME MARKET CRASH IT ALWAYS END UP GOING HIGHER LOH......!!
JUST LOOK AT ;
1) 1987-1998 DOW CRASH
2) 1997-1998 TOM YAM ASIA CRISIS
3) 2007-2009 SUB-PRIME CRISIS
4) 2011- EUROPE CRISIS-GREECE, PORTUGAL, SPAIN & ITALY

EVERYTIME MARKET CRASH.......THE MARKET RECOVER & ALWAYS GO UP HIGHER LOH......!!

SO LONG TERM INVESTOR.....IT IS BETTER AVOID THE MKT NOISE........JUST BUY & HOLD IS THE BEST MAH.....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 17:56 | Report Abuse

We all know that 90% of people involved in the stock market are losing money. We can also be sure that a majority of these losers are traders who quite often became speculators. And speculators easily graduate to become gamblers. At times, it is quite difficult to differentiate between traders, speculators and gamblers. The only thing common is that they are impatient and eventually end up as losers.


Try to build a good foundation in investment b4 u attempt speculation loh...! Like raider always....understand risk reward odds....margin of safety...the company financial position & psychology....of mkt....b4 raider bet mah....!
Thats the reason why raider....never the 90% of people losing in the mkt loh.....!

Also chose the right mentor, adviser and allies.....that is the reason why raider have Senior Analyst, Tukang Tilik, 009 investigators and Kuda Quek loh..!
Always play for big win & minimise loss loh...!


Yes raider had improve on this thru leech tech...!
U are the designer.....raider & gang are the engineers.....this leech tech is so powerful....until dare claim....the 2nd best player loh...!

If u use leech tech....u can accept any tips....but always do counter checking n risk reward analysis mah...! End of the day...u can adopt n accept...it as yourself...but only after thru research loh....!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 17:59 | Report Abuse

Insas versus DLady

1. Insas is a company satisfying the net-net criteria of Graham. DLady does not satisfy this criteria.
2. Insas retains most of its earnings. DLady distributes most of its earnings.
3. Insas is net cash positive. DLady is likewise.
4. Insas carries debt in its balance sheet. DLady has zero or negligible debt.
5. Insas is in multiple businesses. DLady is in a simple business of dairy products.
6. Insas invests its cash in financial assets. DLady returns excess capital to its shareholders giving them free reign to control this owner's cash.
7. Insas gives dividends in shares dividend. DLady gives generous cash dividends.
8. Insas buys back it own shares regularly. DLady does not buy back its own shares.
9. Insas earnings were erratic. DLady earnings were consistent and increasing.
10. Insas dividends in shares were erratic and non-consistent. DLady distribution of dividends were consistent and increasing.
11. Insas trades at a discount to its net asset value. DLady trades at a high multiple to its net asset value.
12. Insas - for every $1 retained, has not created similar $1 in market cap. DLady retains little of its earnings, yet, its market cap grew phenomenally.
13. Insas - ROE - single digit. DLady - ROE - high.

YES INSAS RM 0.50 V DLADY RM 47.58.......WHO WILL WIN LEH ?

LET TAKE THIS AS A CASE STUDY LOH.........!!

RAIDER SAY......LET SET 30-6-2014 WE COMPARE THE RESULT.......ALSO WE CAN COMPARE EFFECTIVENESS OF GRAHAM V NEW BUFFET APPROACH & SEE WHO IS MORE EFFECTIVE LOH.....!!

THIS IS IN LINE WITH ANOTHER COMPARISON OF EFORCE RM 0.36 V AEONCR RM 16.00.....!!
THE COMPARISON DEADLINE IS 30-6-2014.......!!


THE ABOVE IS AN OLD RECORDS WHERE RAIDER BENCHMARK AN OVERVALUE BLUECHIPS V AN UNDERVALUE PENNY STOCKS LOH...!!

CONCLUSION A HUGE UNDERVALUE MARGIN OF SAFETY STOCK WILL USUALLY WIN MAH...!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 18:02 | Report Abuse

THE ONLY WAY TO IMPROVE YOUR ODDS AGAINST RISK IS MAKING USE OF YOUR KNOWLEDGE, EXPERIENCE, BEST PRACTICES AND SETTING HIGH EVALUATION STANDARD.....!!
THIS CALL FOR YOUR CORE COMPETENCE LOH......!!

DO U NOTICE.....SOME COMPANIES WHICH USUALLY U R FAMILIAR....WHEN U INVEST.....U NOTICE THAT U SELDOM.....LOSE MONIES LOH......!!
WHY IS THAT SO ?
IS IT BCOS OF GOOD LUCK ?
RAIDER THINK IS NOT ELEMENT OF LUCK LOH!......IT IS BCOS OF U INVEST IN CIRCLE OF YOUR CORE COMPETENCE LOH....!!

CIRCLE OF CORE COMPETENCE DOES NOT NECESSARY MEAN THE COMPANY OR THE INDUSTRY U R WORKING FOR.....ALTHOUGH IT IS VERY CLOSE LOH........!!
THEN WHY SOMETIME INSIDER ALSO LOSE MONIES ON THE STOCK THEY BUY LEH ?
RAIDER SEE THE FOLLOWING REASON:
1) THE INSIDER GOT CARRIED AWAY.....THEY ARE ACTUALLY SPECULATING INSTEAD OF INVESTING LOH.....!!
2) THE VISION OF INSIDER.....COULD BE BLOCKED.....BCOS TOO ENGROSSED WITH THEIR WORK.......!!
3) THEY DO NOT HAVE A COMPREHENSIVE INVESTMENT TECH....LIKE MARGIN OF SAFETY MAH.....!!!

TO STRENGTHEN YOUR CIRCLE COMPETENCE....U MUST PUT IT TO CHALLENGE......AND COVER YOUR GAPS LOH.....!!

RAIDER SEE WITH INVESTING IN CIRCLE OF COMPETENCE AND ADOPTING BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY AND WITH SOME PATIENT....U CAN ACHIEVE 90% SUCCESS RATE LOH......!!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 18:05 | Report Abuse

A RAIDER SUPPLEMENT COMMENT LOH.......!!!

Philip Fisher: Why staying long-term in your investments makes a lot of sense.
Why staying long-term makes a lot of sense?
Quoting Phillip Fisher:
1. It is just appalling the nerve strain people put themselves under trying to buy something today and sell it tomorrow.
2. It's a small-win proposition.
3. If you are a truly long-range investor, of which I am practically a vanishing breed, the profits are so tremendously greater.

YES U CAN LOOK FOR SUPER UNDERVALUE STOCKS WITH HUGE MARGIN OF SAFETY AND STRONG BALANCE SHEET AND PREFERABLY PAYING REASONABLE DIVIDEND AND HAVING SUSTAINABLE EARNINGS GROWTH LOH....!!
.

1. Someone made a remark that, while it is factually correct, is completely unrealistic when he said, "Nobody ever went broke taking a profit."
2. Well, it is true that you don't go broke taking a profit, but that ASSUMES you will make a profit on EVERYTHING you do.
3. It doesn't allow for the mistakes you're bound to make in the investment business.

ON TAKING PROFIT....SOMETIME INVESTOR.....HAS THIS DILEMA.....IS THE SELLOFF.....IS MARKET ANTINCIPATING FURTHER FUTURE DETERIORATION OR IS IT DUE TO OVERALL MARKET NEGATIVITY......!!

YES TO MANAGE YOUR RISK GO AHEAD SELLOFF SOME LOH.....SAY 30% OF YOUR OVERALL EXPOSURE.....PROVIDED YOUR EXPOSURE IS REASONABLE BIG......BUT DO NOT SELL ALL LOH......!!

EVENTUALLY EQUITY WILL RECOVER & IT WILL USUALLY DO WELL IN THE LONG RUN....!!


1. Funny thing is, I know plenty of guys who consider themselves to be long-term investors but who are still perfectly happy to trade in and out and back into their favourite stocks.
2. Then when their stock got up to a higher price, the pressure to sell got so strong.
3. "Well, why don't we sell half of it, so as to get our bait back?"
4. That is a totally ridiculous argument.
5. Either this is a better investment than another one or a worse one.
6. Getting your bait back is just a question of psychological comfort.
7. It doesn't have anything to do with whether it is the right move or not.

AGAIN THIS ISSUE APPLIES TO TAKING PROFIT LOH......!!
RAIDER ADVOCATE......U ONLY ALLOW SELL OFF 20% OF YOUR EXPOSURE.....HOPING TO BUY BACK AT LOWER PRICE LOH.......!!
REMEMBER IN LONG RUN.....EQUITY ALWAYS DO WELL......!!

Quote from: iiinvestsmart on August 29, 2013, 11:13:28 AM
5 Investing Styles dominate today:

1. Value Investing (identify stocks priced below intrinsic value) Thumbs Up
2. Growth Investing (seek companies whose earnings gains promise to boost intrinsic value rapidly) Thumbs Up Thumbs Up Thumbs Up
3. Index Investing (replicate a large market segment)
4. Technical Investing (glean market behaviour, whether expectations rising or falling, market trends, and other momentum indicators)
5. Portfolio Investing (assembled a portfolio bearing a particular risk level)


Quote from: maymyk on August 29, 2013, 03:03:02 PM
Hi ~,
I bought it for two reasons, the chart showed Bullish Piearcing pattern with Stochastic value indicated oversold. The second reason is it was traded very actively yesterday, and able to overcome bearishness of the whole market yesterday. So i have some confidence that the bull strentgh should last a few more days, until I see another reversal signal.

~,
I don't really agree with your opinion about the paid software. but i can understand why you think so, since your coming from FA school of thought. In my opinion, the paid charting software is only a tool to speed up my work. I can chart and manually search for the candlestick reversal pattern myself, but it would take hours. All the software does is to scan and show me the result of the technical rules i created (such as I want to find counters with Bullish Engalfing pattern in the last trading day, the software can scan thousand of stocks in a minute). Then I have to decide myself, if the pattern is worthy or not to buy. Thanks to the programmers who wrote the program, hours of daunting tasks can be done in minutes.


INVESTSMART
Are you sure the indicators are helpful?
What if the big players (the IPO promoters and their gangs) are manipulating the market price of this stock?

As at the present price, the biggest winners are the promoters and the insiders, who got in at the basement level ($0.01 per share).
As at the present price, many "investors" who got into this stock after the IPO are already having losses.

RAIDER COMMENT.....GO AHEAD USE YOUR TA INDICATOR.....BUT ALWAYS ALLOW NOT MORE THAN 20%-30% OF YOUR PORTFOLIO LOH......!!
THE BALANCE USE FA........TREAT INVESTMENT IN STOCK......IS INVESTING INTO A BUSINESS.....GO FOR LONG TERM LOH......!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 18:13 | Report Abuse

#6484 on: August 29, 2013, 05:15:58 PM »
Reply with quoteQuote

Quote from: stockraider on August 28, 2013, 05:56:55 PM

YES....RAIDER DON DARE TO FIGHT LIKE THE BIGGEST BULL IN INVESTLAH.....!!

WHY LEH ?
UNLIKE PREVIOUS TIME....WHEN RAIDER COME & FIGHT THE P.U.N.D.A.N ARMIES.....RAIDER GOT AIR COVER FROM THE ALLIES, THE CENTRAL BANK......SO RAIDER CAN ALL OUT ATTACK LOH.....!!
BUT THIS TIME......THE AIRCOVER....HAD BEEN REDUCED.....IN FACT IN .....THE EDGE OF COMPLETE WITHDRAWL LOH......!!
SO THIS MEAN....RAIDER & GANG IS ON OUR OWN LOH......!!
SO RAIDER....NEED TO FIGHT CAUTIOUSLY LOH.......!!

NOT SO BRAVE....BCOS TAIKO ALLIES.....HAD REDUCED THEIR AIRCOVER ASSISTANCE MAH.....!!

THIS IS LIFE LOH.....WE NEED TO STAND ON OUR TWO FEET.....ONE DAY MAH.....!!
CANNOT ALWAYS DEPEND ON TAIKO MAH.......!!!
THE DAY HAS ARRIVED LOH.....!!

RAIDER & GANG WITH THE HELP OF SENIOR ANALYST, TUKANG TILIK, 009 INVESTIGATION AND LEECH TECH...ARE STILL A EXCELLENT FIGHTING FORCE AND WILL FIGHT THIS WAR & WIN LOH.......!!


Yes...Raider has fought conservatively & cautiously....using SPAC vehicle of both SONA and Cliq......!!
This 2 forays have shown profit within 1 day after entry loh.....!!

The mkt is unstable.....therefore we must buy something to stabilize the investment loh.....!!
Sona and Cliq is very stable loh.......!!

Lesson here is !!!

a)When mkt is very stable and growing u can afford to buy something more entrepreneurial.....!!
b)But when mkt is unstable & declining.....buy something that is fixed with option of capital appreciation loh.....!!!

Anyhow this advance investment......loh.....something more sophiscated than the usual margin of safety that raider usually practice loh...!!!

Beginners....are adviced to stick to the margin of safety bcos it is beyond the beginner's understanding loh....!!
U still can do well....with your basic understanding of margin of safety loh.....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 18:17 | Report Abuse

That's how u make monies loh.....!!
U see every time market shake out.....u must have your strategy in place loh.....!!

Risk adverse strategy will make monies too .....!!
But cannot make very big monies loh......!!

But good enough.....u just ride thru & survive mah.....!!

During down turn please avoid warrant loh......!!


Alot of people ask Raider is it time to strike or buy ?
Raider....say is yes....but just do it sparingly loh.....!!

Buy stock trading at huge discount to intrinsic value like strong balance sheet, cash rich, High NTA discount, Low PE, Strong Cash Flow and high dividend paying stocks loh......!!

Don buy high PE stock like above 20X even it have a good brand name.....!!
Can consider maybe PE 16X loh........!!

Where to look ?
Just look at Napshot 40 portfolio 1st loh......it will save u a lot of time mah......!!
Or if u are more adventurous u can look yourself.....remember the test raider mention above.....!!!

Raider advice u to conserve your resources, just commit 1st 10% of your spare resource loh......!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 18:19 | Report Abuse

WARREN BUFFET ADVICE INVESTOR....TO HOLD YOUR STRIKE UNTIL U SEE COMPLETE NAPSHOT....& THEN STRIKE THE MAX LOH......!!!

THIS TYPE OF ADVISE IS FOR THE EXPERT & VETERAN LOH.....HOW MANY PEOPLE CAN STRIKE MAX LEH ?

RAIDER ADVICE THE FOLLOWING LOH.....!!!

Alot of people ask Raider is it time to strike or buy ?
Raider....say is yes....but just do it sparingly loh.....!!

Buy stock trading at huge discount to intrinsic value like strong balance sheet, cash rich, High NTA discount, Low PE, Strong Cash Flow and high dividend paying stocks loh......!!

Don buy high PE stock like above 20X even it have a good brand name.....!!
Can consider maybe PE 16X loh........!!

Where to look ?
Just look at Napshot 40 portfolio 1st loh......it will save u a lot of time mah......!!
Or if u are more adventurous u can look yourself.....remember the test raider mention above.....!!!

Raider advice u to conserve your resources, just commit 1st 10% of your spare resource loh......!!

U CAN KEEP BUYING & COMMIT UP TO 30% OF YOUR SPARE BULLETS.......!!!

IF PRICE KEEP FALLING THEN U START UTILIZE FAT PITCH STRATEGY ON YOUR BALANCE 70% LOH......!!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 22:46 | Report Abuse

ALOT PEOPLE THINK.....IF A SHARE PRICE GO UP & THEN FALL & THAN UP, THEN FALL, THEN UP.....IS AN INVESTMENT RISK LOH......!!!???

THIS CONCEPT IS WRONG LOH.....!! THIS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT RISK LOH.....!! IT IS JUST MARKET PRICE FLUCTUATION MAH.....!!!!

IN FACT A TRUE INVESTOR SHOULD BE HAPPY WITH PRICE FLUCTUATION BCOS IT IS AN OPPORTUNITY MAH!!

THEN WHAT IS INVESTMENT RISK LEH ?
1)INVESTMENT RISK WHEN U OVERPAY FOR THE SECURITY, BCOS U VALUE THE INVESTMENT WRONGLY....!!
2) U PURCHASE A SECURITIES WITH POOR OPERATING ECONOMICS LOH.....!!
3) U BOUGHT INTO A SECURITIES RUN BY CROOK MANAGEMENT MAH......!!

NOTICE THE RISK IS ON THE BUSINESS ITSELF & NOT AT THE PRICE FLUCTUATION LOH.....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 22:52 | Report Abuse

I finally had a profit, so I sold that investment."
There is nothing wrong with taking profits, but keep in mind that investors are constantly fearing regret and seeking pride. This is what is called the "disposition effect."

It is a result of the pain of an investment loss hurting much worse than the pleasure of a gain. Academic research has shown that investment losses hurt about two and a half times more than the positive feeling you get from an equivalent investment gain.

Net of taxes, whether you have a gain or a loss in an investment says absolutely nothing about its future prospects.

In a new bull market this bias causes investors to sell winners too early (seeking pride). Also, the painful regret associated with taking losses can keep investors from selling past bear market losers to buy new bull market leaders.

To help yourself avoid this bias, make sure that you have a process for buying and selling investments that is disciplined, fundamentally sound and repeatable. The bragging rights associated with quick gains are great, but the future profits you may miss could have been even better.

RAIDER ALWAYS REMEMBER THIS VERY IMPORTANT MAXIM ADVOCATE BY SENIOR ANALYST;

"IN ORDER TO EARN BIG MONIES......U MUST REMEMBER THE MAXIM OF ALWAYS SLOW IN TAKING PROFIT AND FAST IN CUTTING LOSSES !!"

This important principle apply to all.....whether u are investing, trading, speculating and even gambling.....!!



Report to moderator

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 22:57 | Report Abuse

Investment & Trading lesson....Buying Mistake....!!

Lesson 1. You have Learn Buy Counter Going UP FAST, Soon or later Will come DOWN Fast.

Lesson 2. You haven't Learn BUY PN 17 counters.

Lesson 3. You haven't Learn Buy All Warrant Expiry within 1 year.

Lesson 4. You haven't Learn Buy those Counters With BAD DEBT Stock.

Lesson 5. U buy into a stock with too much gearing

Lesson 6. U buy into a stock with too high PE

Lesson 7. U buy into a stock who is manipulated

Beware All those 7 you are Safe. Wink Wink Wink Fubar Fubar Fubar

To manage your risk look into margin of safety for fundamental investor & set cut loss limit for traders loh......!!
All use both margin of safety and cut loss limit loh......!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 22:59 | Report Abuse

Summary of Words of Raider's investment wisdom.....!!

1) Investment is a marathon, it is a long term game

2)Invest with confidence bcos u are knowledgeable & already done a lot of homework

3)Look for great business with growth & durable competitiveness and/or investment with great margin of safety

4) Invest with an open mind, also look for neglected smallcaps sector that offer great undervalue opportunity

5)Must be patient with your investment & give time loh.....!!

6) Investment temperament must be confident, do not simply change when mkt go up or down.Always invest with the same basic principle regardless of overall market direction

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 23:04 | Report Abuse

Raider just come back from investment meditation in the remote mountain in the border of Tailand.....!!
Raider skill is fully energise & investment skill have improved at least 20% loh......!!!

Actually investment is very simple, put in a nutshell, there are "3 thing" u need to master loh:

1) Valuation.....this raider say all along Margin of safety....Low PE, Big Discount to NTA, Strong Cashflow, High Dividend yield, Strong Balance sheet, Growth and Sustainability loh.....!! Common Sense loh.....!! For fundamental investor mah....a low PE is better than high PE, High discount on NTA better than a Premium on NTA, a high dividend yield is of course better than a low dividend yield mah......!!
"So do not be confuse.....with momentum investment and purely speculative growth investment trying to advocate ignoring the high price u pay for your investment in the name of growth loh......!!
Also do not be confused with gain in market price v high intrinsic value of the stock u purchase loh"
Raider sometime get some help from senior analyst and also get 009 investigator to check & verify the qualitative aspect loh......!!

2) Dealing with Market Price Fluctuation.....Yes how a value investor deal with Mr Market.....would have a lot bearing on your investment return.....should u maximize, should u wait for growth to catch up, should u lari kuat kuat ? All these is a dilemma for Panlai investor loh......!! Raider admit loh.....although very panlai......it is a tough subject for raider loh.......!!

3) Finally u yourself, your psychology make up, your financial position, family background, training, education etc loh.......!! Don be discourage loh......!! U can always train your yourself consciously and unconsciously to make great financial decision loh.....!! That's why u can always see raider go to the border of tailand to meditate and some time make use of tukang tilik too loh.....!! These are unfair advantage raider have over average investor mah...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 23:11 | Report Abuse

Understanding Investment v Trading v Speculation v gambling


A lot people......say stockmkt......is a zero or negative sum game ......everytime there is a transaction......there is always a winner & a loser loh......!!

The winner could be buyer......if the price go up further after buy & loser is the seller and vice versa loh.....!!
Of course everything we do in life.....most of time there is always a winner & loser loh......!!

But how come so many retail players end out losers and end up cursing the stockmarket ?

Raider answer is that they are playing the losers game mah......!!

In order to win, u must play the winner game loh......!!

Imagine.....if u play with Lee Chong Wei......Badminton can u win ?

100% of the time u will lose to Lee Chong Wei in badminton mah.....!!

However, if u r good, u still can win badminton, when Lee Chong Wei is not playing or the rules of badminton is change loh.......!!!

Or u r not going to play badminton with Lee Chong Wei but instead chose to play ping pong, tennis and bowling with Lee Chong Wei...!!

So for retail investor...in order to win.....u must convert the game.....from loser game to winner game loh....!!

But how leh ?

Posted by duitkwspkita > 2014-04-28 23:14 | Report Abuse

Stockraider, u are so expert for me.

can you teach me analysis in stock market. I am a new learner and very keen to learn new things. Hope you are willing to teach me.

thanks,
duitKWSPkita

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 23:21 | Report Abuse

RAIDER LIKE ADVICE ON THIS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL FUNDAMENTAL INVESTOR LOH.....!!
IF STOCK PRICE DON GO UP.......!!

1) RECHECKED YOUR ANALYSIS......WHETHER U MAKE ANY MISTAKE ?
2) LOOK AT THE BUSINESS WHETHER GOT DETERIORATE ALOT ?
3) CHECKED VALUATION........COMPARE WITH SHARE PRICE......SEE GOT BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY ?
4) CHECKED THE GEARING......IS IT RISKY ?

IF THE ABOVE IS OK.....U MUST GIVE TIME FOR YOUR STOCK TO PERFORM......!!
BEN GRAHAM, THE FATHER OF FUNDAMENTAL INVESTMENT, RECOMMEND A STANDARD 3 YRS FOR THE STOCK SELECTED TO PERFORM LOH......!!

IF THE FUNDAMENTAL IS OK.....DO NOT WORRY ABOUT SHARE PRICE LOH......!!

REMEMBER THIS LOH......!!
TREAT SHARE PRICE IS WHAT U PAY MAH......!!
VALUE IS WHAT U GET LOH......!!(MAKE SURE VALUE MUCH MORE THAN SHARE PRICE LOH)
IF U DO THIS, U WOULD NOT BE FOOL BY MR MARKET LOH

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 23:37 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 23:56 | Report Abuse

Raider also subscribe on the investment practice by investsmart as follows:

MY 18 POINTS GUIDE TO SUCCESSFULLY COMPOUNDING YOUR MONEY IN STOCKS

Be a good stock picker (use margin of safety & fundamental valuation aspect).

Think as a business owner.(Go for long run....don trade in n out......not productive)

Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.(Rather says look at both value & price....always remember Mr market)

Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.( Hold the stock for long term....don sell b4 it reach its potential.....hold tighter if the stock got growth potential & got competitive advantage)

Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.(always keep n add on more to the market so that can compound mah)

Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the * instead. BFS;STS.( Don buy into overvalue stock & get into trading and gambling position loh)

Always buy a lot when the price is low.(Yes load up.....especially market panic and market selloff)

Never buy when the stock is overpriced.(Yes)

It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.( it is not alright loh......must have huge margin of safety loh....exception is when there is growth, sustainable competitive advantage and good corporate governance loh)

Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high(treat investing in stock market like putting monies in your savings account regularly)
.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.(It is valuation and not timing loh)

By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.(Buying into great discount with big margin of safety u will be alright loh)

So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.( U sell when the company business deteriorate or when u need monies and when it is exceptionally overvalue mah)

The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.(downside protected bcos got good margin of safety and dividend payment)

Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.(review your stock every quarter mah)

Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.(Yes lari kuat kuat)

You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.(why sell? if prospect is there and still undervalue and got dividend yield.??....look for new fund to invest in the new companies...if need to borrow ....just do it....make sure return far outweighed the cost)

In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.(also the ability to patiently sit tight on your investment buy not selling until potential reach loh)

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 23:59 | Report Abuse

All always invest your stock on a longer time frame loh.....!!
Put it this way......if u own a private business....say a successful chow kiew tiaw stall....!!
Do u ....sell the stall....today.....when Dow jones Drop 200 points ......and buy back when Dow up 200?
Of course not..... u continue chow kiau Tiaw even Dow drop 200 points.....and if u are ambitious u thinking of opening another 5 outlets and also expand into franchise business loh.....!

Stock market investment.....is no diff.....u want to buy more....when business growing....got a lot of margin of safety loh.......!!
So when stockmarket......drop u look at the opportunity to buy more and make more $$$$$$$$ when market recover or the business make good good profit loh......!!
In order words.....u doing a business of stockmarket investment mah.....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-29 00:01 | Report Abuse

Raider,
SECRET FORMULA OF WINNING IS MR MARKET PRICE V FUNDAMENTAL VALUATION PRICE......!!
WITH BIG EMPHASIS OF MARGIN OF SAFETY COMPRISES OF EARNINGS, BALANCE SHEET, CASHFLOW AND DIVIDEND YIELD OF THE STOCK...........!!

SELL WHEN MR MARKET OPTIMISTIC AND OVERPAYS......!!
BUY WHEN THERE ARE GREAT MARGIN OF SAFETY.....WHEN MR MARKET PANIC SELL......!!

MOST OF THE TIME U NO TAKE ACTION
BCOS MOST OF THE TIME MR MARKET ACT RATIONALLY
MR MARKET ONLY ACT IRRATIONALLY ONCE A WHILE
SO MOST OF TIME......U NEED TO PATIENTLY WAIT FOR OPPORTUNITY AND DO NOTHING LOH....!!

ALOT OF PEOPLE ASK RAIDER......IF RAIDER FORMULA SO SIMPLE......BASING ON FUNDAMENTAL AND FINANCIAL THEN WHY ALOT OF PEOPLE WHO ARE FINANCIAL SAVVY CANNOT MAKE MONIES IN THE STOCK MARKET ?

ANSWER THIS IS BCOS THEY DO NOT HAVE PATIENCE AND DISCIPLINE......!!
THEY ARE AFFECTED BY MARKET EMOTIONS SUCH AS FEAR AND GREED......AND PLAY TO MR MARKET HAND MAH.....!!
TO OVERCOME BENJAMIN GRAHAM ADVICE US TO PLAY ON LONG TERM......WITH HOLDING PERIOD ABOUT 3 YRS.....FOR IT TO REALIZE ITS POTENTIAL MAH.......!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-29 00:09 | Report Abuse

So people ask raider.....if stock can make monies.....but why can't they just monitor the stock.....& jump in quickly.....b4 the stock realized the true potential loh.....!!
RAIDER SAYS THIS BUSINESS MODEL CAN WORK LOH........!!
U NEED TO IDENTIFY WHICH OF THE STOCKS ARE VERY UNDERVALUE LOH......!!
U NEED TO MONITOR THE STOCK PATIENTLY & CLOSELY MAH........!!
U MUST MAKE QUICK DECISIVE DECISION TO JUMP IN WHEN OPPORTUNITY ARISE LOH.....!!

THE DRAWBACKS OF THIS STRATEGY ARE :
1) USUALLY & PSYCHOLOGICALLY IT IS DIFFICULT TO BUY BIG BCOS THE STOCK ARE ALREADY MOVING UP WITH VOLUME....!
2) U HAVE NO PATIENT AND GET DISTRACTED TO OTHER THING WHILE MONITORING THAT STOCK......!!
3) DESPITE MONITORING CLOSELY, U STILL READ THE MOMENTUM WRONGLY & AT THE END U STILL GET STUCKED ON THE STOCK AT A HIGHER PRICE LOH.....!

THE COMBINATION OF FUNDAMENTAL UNDERVALUE STOCK IDENTIFICATION AND TA FOR STOCK TIMING ENTRY IS VERY POWERFUL TECH LOH......!!
IT IS VERY USEFUL MODEL FOR RISK MANAGEMENT LOH......!!
RAIDER ADVOCATE TA PRACTIONER TO USE THIS METHOD......INSTEAD OF BUYING INTO CHEEKAI NON FUNDAMENTAL STOCK FOR TRADING PURPOSE LOH......!!

ALTHOUGH RAIDER KNOW THIS TECH IS VERY POWERFUL......RAIDER SEE MOST FAILURE ARE DUE TO INVESTORS LACK OF PATIENCE IN MONITORING STOCK LOH.....!!
SOMETIME U MAY NEED TO MONITOR THE STOCK FOR ALMOST 2 YRS BEFORE U CAN ENTER LOH......!!

RAIDER WAS PRACTISING THIS TECH WHEN HE WAS YOUNG & DON'T HAVE MUCH MONIES......RAIDER MONITOR THOSE STOCKS FOR ALMOST 10 YRS B4 JUMPING IN LOH......!!
THIS IS HOW U BUILD THE ART OF PATIENCE BESIDE MEDITATION MAH.....!


Old man advice for newbies

1. Play your game right
If you are new, do not be too focus on profits.
Your priority is to play the game right.
If you play the game right, profit will follow.

2. What is play your game right?
Know why you buy a share
Know why you are paying the price
Know how much you want to earn
Know when you want to cut loss

3) Always know why u should always wait for opportunity...!
Do your homework and research on fundamental
Monitor the stock for volume & momentum
Analyse the fundamental valuation of the stock and margin of safety
Look for catalyst and trigger that support your entry
Manage your stock if there are unrealized gain....do not eager sell to take quick profit and sell to late bcos of too greedy loh...!!

4. How to know you play your game right?
Nobody can tell from your face whether you are up or down by 10K
You sleep equally well when you have a loss because you know its only
monitor your system and look for improvement

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-29 00:14 | Report Abuse

Leno,

Make the wrong prediction that Pakatan is going to win this election....!!
If he get it right .....he will make alot of monies by buy back loh....!!

Raider,

Predict that Pakatan could not win, due to sabah and sarawak plus the freebies BN is giving like BRIM....!!
If BN lose....raider would lose big monies....temporary .....bcos of the potential big sell off mah....!!
Raider....is prepare for the worse....base on margin of safety principle.....if there is a market sell off if bn lose loh....!!

However election BN wins....so raider laughing all the way loh ...!!
Bcos wins big mah......!!

Investsmart comment
The no. 1 investor in this forum LENO sold almost ALL his 'undervalued' counters because of his 'fear' that BN might lose. So much for his confidence in his ability to pick undervalued stocks. Is this intelligent investing or emotion driven investing?

RAIDER COMMENT
ALOT INVESTOR ALSO MAKE THE SAME MISTAKE 1 TIME OR ANOTHER
RAIDER CALL THIS SCENARIO SAILANG SITUATION......IT CAN HAPPEN AS FOLLOWS:

1) U BET ON A SINGLE STOCK WITH ALL YOUR CASH
2) U BET ALL YOUR CASH ON A SINGLE EVENT.....LIKE ELECTION VICTORY PARTY!
3) U BET ALL YOUR ASSETS ON YOUR ONLY SINGLE BUSINESS
4) U BET ALL YOUR ASSETS PLUS ALOT OF BORROWING ON YOUR WONDERFUL HOME
5) U BET ALL YOUR MONIES PLUS YOUR LIFE SAVINGS ON YOUR SINGLE CHILD EDUCATION

WHY WOULD PEOPLE WANT TO BET EVERYTHING ON A RISKY 1 GO EVENT ?
THIS BCOS OF LACK RISK MANAGEMENT SKILL MAH....!!

RAIDER ALWAYS ADVOCATE U HEDGE AND DIVERSIFY YOUR BETS TO AVOID EXCESSIVE RISK TAKING MAH....!!

THATS WHY RAIDER ALWAYS......ADVOCATE AT LEAST 30-60 STOCKS SELECTION TO AVOID CONCENTRATION OF RISK MAH.....!!

FOR OTHER THING BESIDE STOCK.....U DECIDE WHAT'S THE BEST FORMULA TO REDUCE CONCENTRATION OF RISK LOH.......!!


DO U BELIEVE THE OLD SAYING.....THAT 20/80 RULE ?
RAIDER IS A STRONG BELIEVER LOH.....!!

WHAT THE 20/80 RULES SAYS LOH....?
THERE SAY 20% OF THE VERY SUCCESSUL CONTRIBUTE TO 80% OF THE OVERALL SUCCESS MAH....!!
WHEREAS THE OTHER 80% ONLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE BALANCE LOH.....!!

TESTING WHETHER 20/80 THEORY WORKS ?
REMEMBER RAIDER 80 NAPSHOT STOCKS.....?
IF RAIDER APPLY THIS 20/80 RULE ON RAIDER 40 NAPSHOT STOCK.....RAIDER WILL GET 8 TOP NAPSHOT STOCK IN MY PORTFOLIO WHICH IN ACTUALLY QUITE CLOSE TO WHAT RAIDER ACHIEVE NOW MAH....!!

NOW JUST IMAGINE U APPLY 20/80 RULE TO INVESTSMART RECOMMENDATION OF ONLY 6 STOCKS HOLDING .
U ONLY GET 1 TOP NAPSHOT STOCK IN THIS PORTFOLIO LOH...!!

NOW U TELL ME THIS 1 TOP NAPSHOT STOCK IN THE PORTFOLIO HOLDING IS AN ADEQUATE RISK MANAGEMENT ?

Posted by leno > 2014-04-29 08:33 | Report Abuse

HAHAHAHAH ... dun simply spread lies hor ... where got leno predict PR won election ? G I L A ! No. 2 - Leno never sell leno undervalued stocks hor ... u can check the list hor ... all show inrease hor. HAHAHAHAHAH ... but of course that Psychotic Blue Chip Promoter jealous watching leno's strategy working so PERFECT even beating Raider 12 year, 10 year and 5 years return lor. No wonder everi one call Leno as the Most Panlai Investor.

Posted by changbl > 2014-04-29 14:28 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-30 09:59 | Report Abuse

Sell in may...Go away.....!!
Do u think this is good ah ?

Raider think....this is a bad approach loh....!!
U don simply sell in may mah....u check your stock whether got sufficient margin of safety & prospect mah b4 u sell....!!
Likewise u can buy too loh.....!!

Those who sell in may....will start kicking themselves in June & july if they simply sale mah.....!!

Btw...why blur blur....post got removed ?
Must be this Changbl very naughty loh....!!
Still cannot behave himself ?

Posted by Bravo > 2014-05-01 08:36 | Report Abuse

good morning stockraider, what is your ideal cash in hand vs equity proportionate?

Posted by stockraider > 2014-05-01 22:12 | Report Abuse

Raider like 80 Equity & 20 Cash formula.
Always have more of your assets in equity than cash.
This is bcos in long run equity as a whole usually wins.
Of course u must select your stocks carefully using margin of safety loh....!! In order to outperform mah....!!

Posted by Bravo > 2014-05-02 13:23 | Report Abuse

Thanks raider, can i ask what do you think of L&G? short term or long term investment. :)

Posted by stockraider > 2014-05-03 10:06 | Report Abuse

Bravo,

raider not familiar with this counter.
Perhaps u can tell raider why u like & L&G so much ?

Posted by Bravo > 2014-05-03 11:24 | Report Abuse

Hi Raider,

I might miss out the big picture here, kindly enlightened me if there's any :)

The fundamental of the company is doing good.

EPS 12.3
P/E 4.63
ROE 17.2
NTA 0.713
current price : 0.57
safety of margin 20%?
market cap : 362M (expected the profit will be diluted in 2018 when its LA has due, more LA converted to mother shares by adding on 13 cents)


L&G has performed poorly in YE 2007 while its price surged up to RM9 and go all the way down to RM1. The company start to recover in YE 2009, after change of the management which focus more on property development.

well, it is expected two projects to be completed in the Q3 2014 which is Sri Damansara and Sungai Jernih.

The company is cash rich and low debts gearing, too bad no dividend declared.

Posted by sephiroth > 2014-05-03 12:01 | Report Abuse

Just wanna add that the no of loan stocks is as much as the current share base, eps will be diluted by as much as 90% by 2018 if not earlier

Posted by stockraider > 2014-05-06 23:55 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2014-05-07 00:02 | Report Abuse

Summary of Words of Raider's investment wisdom.....!!

1) Investment is a marathon, it is a long term game
VERY BUFFETT LIKE

2)Invest with confidence bcos u are knowledgeable & already done a lot of homework
VERY BUFFETT LIKE (WAIT FOR THE BIG PITCH)

3)Look for great business with growth & durable competitiveness and/or investment with great margin of safety
DEFINITELY BUFFETT (BETTER TO INVEST IN GREAT COMPANY AT FAIR/BARGAIN PRICES)

4) Invest with an open mind, also look for neglected smallcaps sector that offer great undervalue opportunity
GRAHAMIAN VALUE APPROACH

5)Must be patient with your investment & give time loh.....!!
VERY BUFFETT LIKE 6) Investment temperament must be confident, do not simply change when mkt go up or down.Always invest with the same basic principle regardless of overall market direction

Posted by stockraider > 2014-05-07 00:05 | Report Abuse

"I finally had a profit, so I sold that investment."
There is nothing wrong with taking profits, but keep in mind that investors are constantly fearing regret and seeking pride. This is what is called the "disposition effect."

It is a result of the pain of an investment loss hurting much worse than the pleasure of a gain. Academic research has shown that investment losses hurt about two and a half times more than the positive feeling you get from an equivalent investment gain.

Net of taxes, whether you have a gain or a loss in an investment says absolutely nothing about its future prospects.

In a new bull market this bias causes investors to sell winners too early (seeking pride). Also, the painful regret associated with taking losses can keep investors from selling past bear market losers to buy new bull market leaders.

To help yourself avoid this bias, make sure that you have a process for buying and selling investments that is disciplined, fundamentally sound and repeatable. The bragging rights associated with quick gains are great, but the future profits you may miss could have been even better.

RAIDER ALWAYS REMEMBER THIS VERY IMPORTANT MAXIM ADVOCATE BY SENIOR ANALYST;

"IN ORDER TO EARN BIG MONIES......U MUST REMEMBER THE MAXIM OF ALWAYS SLOW IN TAKING PROFIT AND FAST IN CUTTING LOSSES !!"

This important principle apply to all.....whether u are investing, trading, speculating and even gambling.....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-05-07 00:14 | Report Abuse

Actually investment is very simple, put in a nutshell, there are "3 thing" u need to master loh:

1) Valuation.....this raider say all along Margin of safety....Low PE, Big Discount to NTA, Strong Cashflow, High Dividend yield, Strong Balance sheet, Growth and Sustainability loh.....!! Common Sense loh.....!! For fundamental investor mah....a low PE is better than high PE, High discount on NTA better than a Premium on NTA, a high dividend yield is of course better than a low dividend yield mah......!!
"So do not be confuse.....with momentum investment and purely speculative growth investment trying to advocate ignoring the high price u pay for your investment in the name of growth loh......!!
Also do not be confused with gain in market price v high intrinsic value of the stock u purchase loh"
Raider sometime get some help from senior analyst and also get 009 investigator to check & verify the qualitative aspect loh......!!

2) Dealing with Market Price Fluctuation.....Yes how a value investor deal with Mr Market.....would have a lot bearing on your investment return.....should u maximize, should u wait for growth to catch up, should u lari kuat kuat ? All these is a dilemma for Panlai investor loh......!! Raider admit loh.....although very panlai......it is a tough subject for raider loh.......!!

3) Finally u yourself, your psychology make up, your financial position, family background, training, education etc loh.......!! Don be discourage loh......!! U can always train your yourself consciously and unconsciously to make great financial decision loh.....!! That's why u can always see raider go to the border of tailand to meditate and some time make use of tukang tilik too loh.....!! These are unfair advantage raider have over average investor mah...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-05-07 00:20 | Report Abuse

RAIDER LIKE ADVICE ON THIS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL FUNDAMENTAL INVESTOR LOH.....!!
IF STOCK PRICE DON GO UP.......!!

1) RECHECKED YOUR ANALYSIS......WHETHER U MAKE ANY MISTAKE ?
2) LOOK AT THE BUSINESS WHETHER GOT DETERIORATE ALOT ?
3) CHECKED VALUATION........COMPARE WITH SHARE PRICE......SEE GOT BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY ?
4) CHECKED THE GEARING......IS IT RISKY ?

IF THE ABOVE IS OK.....U MUST GIVE TIME FOR YOUR STOCK TO PERFORM......!!
BEN GRAHAM, THE FATHER OF FUNDAMENTAL INVESTMENT, RECOMMEND A STANDARD 3 YRS FOR THE STOCK SELECTED TO PERFORM LOH......!!

IF THE FUNDAMENTAL IS OK.....DO NOT WORRY ABOUT SHARE PRICE LOH......!!

REMEMBER THIS LOH......!!
TREAT SHARE PRICE IS WHAT U PAY MAH......!!
VALUE IS WHAT U GET LOH......!!(MAKE SURE VALUE MUCH MORE THAN SHARE PRICE LOH)
IF U DO THIS, U WOULD NOT BE FOOL BY MR MARKET LOH

Posted by stockraider > 2014-05-07 00:26 | Report Abuse

YES....GROWTH COULD BE THE GOD OF INVESTMENT.....IF U USE IT PROPERLY , CONSERVATIVELY AND CARE LOH........!!

YES GROWTH COULD BE THE DEVIL OF INVESTMENT.....IF U ABUSE IT, IRRATIONAL AND UNREASONABLE LOH....!!

HOW PEOPLE ABUSE GROWTH ?

JUST LOOK AT INVESTSMART POSTING HERE:
At present price, you are buying a growing company with a good business at fair price.
At present price, the risk reward ratio is reasonable and your potential return is 13% per year (conservatively estimated). Cash Clap
If you were to factor in the growth of 20%, the present price is actually providing a big margin of safety. Thumbs Up

JUST SEE HOW IT IS SO ILLOGICAL LOH.....!!
He......He.....He.....!!
This is another rubbish posting loh.....!!
Raider ask lah.....why don't u factor in the growth rate of 50%, the present price will be providing even a bigger margin of safety loh ? ??

CONSEQUENCE OF MAKING ILLOGICAL GROWTH ASSUMPTION....WILL RUNNING RISK OF OVER PAYING STOCKS LOH.......!!

RAIDER BASIS OF PRUDENT GROWTH
1) QUALITY ASPECT....JUSTIFY ARGUE WHY THE GROWTH SHOULD EXIST....LIKE NEW BREAKTHROUGH OF TECHNOLOGY, GAINING MARKET SHARE, SUCCESSFUL MARKETING CAMPAIGN, GOT A BIG MAJOR CONTRACT FOR NEXT 10 YRS ETC.....ETC.....!!
2) NEXT DETERMINE.....WHAT'S THE GROWTH RATE AFTER LOOKING AT ALL THE QUALITY ASPECT LOH...!!
BUT DON EVER CREATE INFINITY GROWTH RATE LOH....EXAMPLE GROWTH RATE OF 15% PA FOR NEXT 3 YRS...BCOS OF TECHNONOLOGY BREAKTHRU....!!
NEVER NEVER REPEAT THE GROWTH RATE 15% PA FOREVER LIKE.....SIMPLY MANY ANALYST USE....INCLUDING INVESTSMART.....LOH....!!
3) HAVING ESTABLISH THE GROWTH.....PLS CHECK HOW IT WILL IMPACT YOUR MARGIN LOH.....!!
4) AFTER U HAVE DONE THIS EXERCISE THEN ONLY CAN ESTIMATED......WHAT IS FWD EARNINGS MAH.....!!
ALSO BEAR IN MIND GROWTH WILL TAPER OFF AS BUSINESS PROGRESS.....!!

5) SEE AFTER PRUDENTLY DONE THIS EXERCISE.......THEN U CAN VALUE STOCK CONSERVATIVE MAH.....!!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-05-07 00:31 | Report Abuse

Raider also subscribe on the investment practice by investsmart as follows:

MY 18 POINTS GUIDE TO SUCCESSFULLY COMPOUNDING YOUR MONEY IN STOCKS

Be a good stock picker (use margin of safety & fundamental valuation aspect).

Think as a business owner.(Go for long run....don trade in n out......not productive)

Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.(Rather says look at both value & price....always remember Mr market)

Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.( Hold the stock for long term....don sell b4 it reach its potential.....hold tighter if the stock got growth potential & got competitive advantage)

Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.(always keep n add on more to the market so that can compound mah)

Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the * instead. BFS;STS.( Don buy into overvalue stock & get into trading and gambling position loh)

Always buy a lot when the price is low.(Yes load up.....especially market panic and market selloff)

Never buy when the stock is overpriced.(Yes)

It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.( it is not alright loh......must have huge margin of safety loh....exception is when there is growth, sustainable competitive advantage and good corporate governance loh)

Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high(treat investing in stock market like putting monies in your savings account regularly)
.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.(It is valuation and not timing loh)

By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.(Buying into great discount with big margin of safety u will be alright loh)

So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.( U sell when the company business deteriorate or when u need monies and when it is exceptionally overvalue mah)

The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.(downside protected bcos got good margin of safety and dividend payment)

Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.(review your stock every quarter mah)

Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.(Yes lari kuat kuat)

You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.(why sell? if prospect is there and still undervalue and got dividend yield.??....look for new fund to invest in the new companies...if need to borrow ....just do it....make sure return far outweighed the cost)

In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.(also the ability to patiently sit tight on your investment buy not selling until potential reach loh)

Posted by stockraider > 2014-05-07 00:33 | Report Abuse

What to Do in a Up (Bull) Market?

The stock market often falls under the conditions of the so called bull and bear markets. Intelligent investors are well familiar with the conditions of both and know exactly what to do.

A bull market may make your stock's price increase, from which you can benefit in one way or another.

However, the possibility of your stock becoming too costly always exists since after the up, a down in the price may follow, which may be of an extreme speed.

So, under bull market conditions you can do one of the following in order to counteract the potentially negative effects.

First of all, you can sell a part of the shares and use the money to repurchase the stock when its price falls again.
Secondly, you can leave the market work its way through the imbalance with no action from your side.
Thirdly, you can take advantage of the high prices and sell the stocks for a profit.

Never forget that a market correction will follow that may push the price of your stock below its initial level.

A useful strategy to counteract the negative effects of a bull market is to sell a portion of your stocks at the current bull market price, which will be greatly higher than the one at which you have purchased the stock.

After the market correction is at place you can use the money you have acquired from the bull market sale to purchase shares at the current lower price. As a result you will have more stocks than you used to have before the bull market.
You have not only avoided losses but also have reduced your average cost per share.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-05-07 00:38 | Report Abuse

IN STOCK INVESTMENT U ONLY DEAL WITH 3 ISSUES LOH.....!!
1) U BUY
2) U HOLD
3) U SELL

IF U THINK CANNOT BUY....NO PROBLEM.....!!
ASK YOURSELF IS IT A HOLD OR SELL ?

IF U THINK IT IS A HOLD.....!!
THEN THAT STOCKS STILL GOT MORE MORE $$$$$$$$$$ GAIN OPPORTUNITY LOH.....!!

IF U THINK IS A SELL.....!!
THEN QUICKLY....QUICKLY SELL....$$$$$$$$$$ PROFIT OPPORTUNITY MASUK POCKET MAH.....!!

THE TRICK IS WHEN BUY, HOLD AND SELL LEH ?
THE ANSWER IS MARGIN OF SAFETY, VALUATION, MARKET DIRECTION AND INVESTOR PSYCHOLOGY LOH....!!

MANAGE THIS VARIABLE.....U CAN ENHANCE YOUR RETURN WITH LITTLE RISK MANY TIME LOH....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-05-07 00:42 | Report Abuse

Earnings above 100% in a very short period is all investors dream mah.....!!
Yes it can be done......is something like striking 4D once a while mah.....!!
Unfortunately a lot of people end up losing monies despite striking 4D loh.....!!
Unfortunately a lot(70%) of stkmkt players are gamblers and speculators and at the end they donate to the stockmarket loh.......!!

U must buy a lot of something for Rm 0.30-40 for something is worth more than Rm 1.00.....then with this business model....u can sustained your performance in the long run loh......!!


Treat stockmkt as a business mah.......!!
But this business as a business is unique loh.....!!
U cannot buy a stock which is price at Rm 0.40 but worth rm 1.00 and straightaway sell it for rm 1.00.....it takes time loh......for it to realized the true potential loh..........!!
Sometime investor if they are very lucky can realized the true potential within 3 mths........but some or a big proportion takes upto 3 yrs to realize but some can never realized its potential after 10 yrs loh.....!!

The strategy is that your gain must be substantial compare to your holding of unchanged and losses over a reasonable period of time, so that u can make a good profit......!!
This is sustainable business & sustainable profit loh......!!

So people ask raider.....if stock can make monies.....but why can't they just monitor the stock.....& jump in quickly.....b4 the stock realized the true potential loh.....!!
RAIDER SAYS THIS BUSINESS MODEL CAN WORK LOH........!!
U NEED TO IDENTIFY WHICH OF THE STOCKS ARE VERY UNDERVALUE LOH......!!
U NEED TO MONITOR THE STOCK PATIENTLY & CLOSELY MAH........!!
U MUST MAKE QUICK DECISIVE DECISION TO JUMP IN WHEN OPPORTUNITY ARISE LOH.....!!

THE DRAWBACKS OF THIS STRATEGY ARE :
1) USUALLY & PSYCHOLOGICALLY IT IS DIFFICULT TO BUY BIG BCOS THE STOCK ARE ALREADY MOVING UP WITH VOLUME....!
2) U HAVE NO PATIENT AND GET DISTRACTED TO OTHER THING WHILE MONITORING THAT STOCK......!!
3) DESPITE MONITORING CLOSELY, U STILL READ THE MOMENTUM WRONGLY & AT THE END U STILL GET STUCKED ON THE STOCK AT A HIGHER PRICE LOH.....!

THE COMBINATION OF FUNDAMENTAL UNDERVALUE STOCK IDENTIFICATION AND TA FOR STOCK TIMING ENTRY IS VERY POWERFUL TECH LOH......!!
IT IS VERY USEFUL MODEL FOR RISK MANAGEMENT LOH......!!
RAIDER ADVOCATE TA PRACTIONER TO USE THIS METHOD......INSTEAD OF BUYING INTO CHEEKAI NON FUNDAMENTAL STOCK FOR TRADING PURPOSE LOH......!!

ALTHOUGH RAIDER THIS TECH IS VERY POWERFUL......RAIDER SEE MOST FAILURE ARE DUE TO INVESTORS LACK OF PATIENCE IN MONITORING STOCK LOH.....!!
SOMETIME U MAY NEED TO MONITOR THE STOCK FOR ALMOST 2 YRS BEFORE U CAN ENTER LOH......!!

RAIDER WAS PRACTISING THIS TECH WHEN HE WAS YOUNG & DON'T HAVE MUCH MONIES......RAIDER MONITOR THOSE STOCKS FOR ALMOST 10 YRS B4 JUMPING IN LOH......!!
THIS IS HOW U BUILD THE ART OF PATIENCE BESIDE MEDITATION MAH.....!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-05-07 00:45 | Report Abuse

Old man advice for newbies

1. Play your game right
If you are new, do not be too focus on profits.
Your priority is to play the game right.
If you play the game right, profit will follow.

2. What is play your game right?
Know why you buy a share
Know why you are paying the price
Know how much you want to earn
Know when you want to cut loss

3) Always know why u should always wait for opportunity...!
Do your homework and research on fundamental
Monitor the stock for volume & momentum
Analyse the fundamental valuation of the stock and margin of safety
Look for catalyst and trigger that support your entry
Manage your stock if there are unrealized gain....do not eager sell to take quick profit and sell to late bcos of too greedy loh...!!

4. How to know you play your game right?
Nobody can tell from your face whether you are up or down by 10K
You sleep equally well when you have a loss because you know its only
monitor your system and look for improvement

Posted by stockraider > 2014-05-07 00:49 | Report Abuse

SHOULD U SPECIALIZE ON FEW STOCK & BANG BIG ?

GENERALLY IS NO FOR MOST INVESTOR....!! WHY LEH ?
IF U TAKE INVESTMENT SERIOUSLY LIKE ANY PROFESSION......U SHOULD NOT SPECIALIZE UNTIL U REALLY REALLY READY LOH......!!

TAKE A MECHANIC, LAWYER AN ACCOUNTANT......DO U THINK A MECHANIC SHOULD JUST SPECIALIZE IN BMW CARS WHEN HE SET UP SHOP TO DO BUSINESS ?
THE RIGHT THINK IS HE SHOULD TAKE ANY CARS LOH.....TOYOTA, HONDA, MERCEDES, PROTON, PERODUA, BMW ETC......UNTIL MANY MANY YEARS......WHEN HE NOTICE .....MOST OF HIS CUSTOMERS ARE BMW & HE FIND HE LIKE WORKING WITH BMW CARS AND HIS MARGIN IS GOOD THEN.....HE TRY CAUTIOUSLY, SLOWLY & INTENTIONALLY SPECIALIZING IN BMW CARS MAH.....!!
BEING A GENERALIST IS THE BEST & SAFE MODEL....THAT WILL LEAD TO SPECIALIZATION LOH.......!!

SAME AS A LAWYER....SHOULD HE SPECIALIZE IN DIVORCE CASE WHEN HE OPEN SHOP ? OR A YOUNG ACCOUNTANT WANT TO SPECIALIZE IN MULTINATIONAL AUDIT WHEN HE START BUSINESS ?
THE ANSWER IS NO LOH.....!! U DO EVERYTHING AS A GENERALIST B4 U SPECIALIZE MAH.....!!

SOME BEING AN INVESTOR U START WITH A GENERALIST 1ST LOH....U RESEARCH INTO THOUSAND & THOUSAND OF COMPANIES AND LEARN ALL THEIR BUSINESS......SLOWLY BUY INTO FEW HUNDRED, AS TIME GET BY, U SLOWLY TRIM TO THE NAPSHOT 40 LIKE RAIDER MAH.........!!
THIS GENERALIST ALLOW U TO ACCELERATE LEARNING & DEEPENED YOUR INVESTMENT & FINANCIAL KNOWLEDGE LOH......!!
IT ALSO KEEP U ABREAST & UPTODATE WITH THE LATEST BUSINESS & FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT SO THAT U ARE NOT OUTDATED IN THE INVESTMENT FIELD LOH.....!!


SPECIALIZING IN 5-10 COUNTERS, THIS RAIDER SEE THEM AS PLAIN TOO LAZY LOH....!! ESPECIALLY SOME PEOPLE THOUGHT THEY ARE READY TO SPECIALIZE BUT IN ACTUAL FACT THEY ARE REALLY NOT READY LOH.......!!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-05-07 00:51 | Report Abuse

LG COMMENT/ RAIDER ADVISE TO ASPIRING INVESTOR

I believe institutional investors can never beat the market in a fair environment. The institutions are the market. They cannot as a group outperform themselves. In fact, given the cost of active management fees, high staff costs and free flow information, institutional investors should theoretically underperform a retail investor. But real life is never fair. Because instutions can make the market, therefore they can make the money.
CORRECTLOH....IF U ARE HERD FOLLOWING THE MARKET U ARE DISADVANTAGE LOH.....!!
TO BE SUCCESSFUL U MUST BE DISASSOCIATE WITH THE MARKET LOH......!!

Investment is like warfare. In warfare, mistakes are inevitable. Military decisions are based on estimates of the enemy's strengths and intentions that are usually faulty, and on intelligence that is never complete and often misleading. Other things being equal, the side that makes the fewest strategic errors wins the war.
CORRECT LOH....LOOK AT FINANCIAL FUNDAMENTAL....MAKE SAFE MOVE LESS MISTAKE MAH...!!

A big institutional investor (hedge funds, mutual funds, insurance companies, and so on) picks a stock that it owns and begins selling. As it dumps the stock on to the market, the price begins to fall. Other investors unload the stock and the price continues to fall. At some point, the institutional investor decides it is time to jump back in and it begins an aggressive buying program. Soon, other investors notice the price rising and they buy also pushing the price up higher. Once the price is sufficiently high, the cycle can begin again.
CORRECTLOH....U MUST BET AGAINST MR MARKET.....BUY WHEN MR MARKET PANIC SELL...AND SELL WHEN MR MARKET IS VERY OPTIMISTIC & MARKET BOOMING MAH.....!!

What has happened is the institutional investor through its purchasing power can drive prices down and then buy back into the stock at a low price. It rides that price up as others join the rally and pockets a hefty profit. This is called the slingshot effect. THIS CAN ALSO CALL MARKET OPERATIONS LOH....!! THE PROBLEM ALOT OF INVESTOR FALL FOR IT LOH.....!! YOUR SAFEGUARD IS VALUATION....VALUATION.....VALUATION AND MARGIN OF SAFETY MAH......!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-05-07 00:54 | Report Abuse

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch
Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.....STUDY THE BUSINESS & STUDY THE VALUATION...!
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon....DON SIMPLY BUYING INTO A STORY...ALWAYS STUDY THE FUNDAMENTAL 1ST
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation....SHORT TERM STOCK IS A VOTING MACHINE & LONG TERM WEIGHING MACHINE MAH...!!
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards...IF U TREAT STOCKS IS A GAMBLING AVENUE.....THEN STOCK IS THE ONLY GAME....THAT THE GAMBLER HAS AN UNFAIR ADVANTAGE AGAINST THE HOUSE. THIS IS PROVIDED U PLAY YOUR CARDS RIGHT LOH...!!
U NEED DISCIPLINE & THE WISDOM TO PLAY IT WELL LOH....!!
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies....TIME IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ELEMENT FOR LONG TERM INVESTOR...!!
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle...U MUST NOT OVER LEVERAGE....THIS TRUE FOR ANY BUSINESS.....!!
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign...USUALLY IT IS GOOD....BUT THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR...FURTHER ANALYSE THE STORY BEHIND THE HEADLINE....!!
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic....OPTIMISTIC USUALLY WINS....THATS WHY RAIDER "IS THE BIGGEST BULL IN INVESTLAH".....THATS WHYS RAIDER PORTFOLIO MAKE ALOT LOH....!!
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you...STOCK DECLINE IS NOTHING IF U DO YOUR HOMEWORK....U SHOULD WELCOME IT...IT IS OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE MORE MONIES
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach...U NEED TO BE MENTALLY PREPARE AS WELL.....THATS WHY RAIDER RECOMMEND MEDITATION MAH....!!
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested..FORGET ABOUT MACRO PREDICTION & FOCUS ON THE BUSINESS & VALUATION

Posted by stockraider > 2014-05-07 01:01 | Report Abuse

REVISITING SELL IN MAY & GO AWAY STORY LAST YEAR MAY 2013....IT IS PROVEN...IT IS WRONG & U SHOULD NOT DO IT LOH.....!!

IT IS TOTALLY WRONG INVESTMENT TECH....!! NOW IT IS MAY 2014...R U GOING TO REPEAT THE SAME OLD SILLY MISTAKE ?


If every day this month had been like Friday, then "sell in May and go away" would be an accurate statement for 2013. However, despite the steep late-day selloff on the final day of the month, the major indices ended May firmly on the upside, with the Dow gaining 1.86%, the S&P up 2.08% and the Nasdaq seeing a 3.82% rise.

Yahoo! Finance
Still, as Yahoo! Finance Editor in Chief Aaron Task and Henry Blodget point out in this Daily Ticker segment, the "tally doesn’t really count until the end of the 'worst six months' period." With June traditionally being a weak month for Wall Street, are we headed for a swoon over the next 30 days? Or, as our Breakout colleagues asked on Friday: What comes after a seven-month rally? Crash, correction or pullback?

And as the 10-year note yield soars above 2% and Treasuries see their worst month since 2010, is this bond selloff the "real thing?" (For your edification: Goldman Sachs (GS) says "Yes" while UBS (UBS) says "Not really.")

In a world where investors might "fear the taper" and bad news can be good for the market, all of this remains to be seen as we head into the final month of the second quarter of 2013. And busy days are ahead, with the key jobs report for May capping a week that includes a meeting between President Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping, another IRS hearing, several Fed speakers, an ECB policy meeting, auto sales numbers and a smattering of earnings reports. Scheduled guests on Daily Ticker and Breakout include Meredith Whitney, Paul Hickey and former Yahoo! Finance columnist Daniel Gross.

With the Sell in May mantra seems to be in shambles, and investors have proven for a seventh consecutive month that no dip is too shallow to purchase, the debate du jour has switched to "Now what?"

More specifically, what awaits us on the other side of the mountain following an uninterrupted 23% rally in stocks since mid-November?

"When we do get that eventual decline, and it will come, it will most likely be a pullback rather than a correction or a new bear market," says Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ, in the attached video.

For clarity's sake he characterizes a pullback as a 5% to 9.9% decline, a correction as a 10% to 19.9% retreat, and a bear market as anything worse than 20%.

"I think what investors forget is that we have had a pullback basically every year since World War II and we've had a correction once every less-than-three years, on average," Stovall says. "So to have a decline of five to twenty percent is really not a strange thing."

That said, as the chart below shows, the probability of a crash is actually lower, the larger the preceding run-up has been, which in the current case is about 23% and counting.

"I actually found that a greater the advance off of a prior pullback increases the chances that we end up with another pullback, rather than something deeper," Stovall says, adding "the implication is that investors are buying into an improving economy."

Of course, he always cautions that history is a guide and not a guarantee, but it is worth noting that he has a 12-month target of 1670 for the S&P 500 and recommends a 45% allocation to U.S. equities


RAIDER MACRO ANALYSIS COMMENT

SELL IN MAY & GO AWAY MANTRA...........HAPPEN IN THE LAST DAY OF MAY......31-5-2013 LOH......!!
DO U WORRY OF THIS SELL IN MAY MANTRA ? ARE U GOING AWAY AS WELL ?
THE ANSWER IS NO LOH.....!! IN FACT THE BIG PULLBACK......IT IS VERY HEALTHY MAH.....BEARING IN MIND THE DOW HAD ADVANCE QUITE ALOT AND THE FED THREATHENED TO TIGHTEN.....BUT STILL THE 10 YR BOND WHEN UP FROM 1.9% PA TO 2.2% PA.......!!
BUT WAIT A MINUTE...!! U THINK THE 10 YR BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE AT 2.2% PA IS HIGH OR STILL LOOSE ?
OF COURSE IT IS STILL LOOSE MAH....!! IN ORDER FOR IT TO BE NEUTRAL IT SHOULD BE SOMETHING LIKE 4% TO 4.5% PA MAH......!!

THE CONCLUSION IS THE PARTY IS STILL ON LOH.....!!
IF U R A LATECOMER TAKE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO BUY WHEN MARKET PULLBACK LOH......!!

ALSO ALOT OF MONIES ARE PARKED IN THE SHORT TERM OVERNIGHT MONEY MARKET LOOKING FOR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY WHEN THE DUST SETTLE.....U WILL DO BETTER IF U ARE AHEAD OF THEM LOH.....!!

STOCK MARKET PE AVERAGE 16x.....STILL WELL AHEAD OF THE LONG TERM BOND RETURN......THEREFORE STOCK MARKET IS STILL UNDERVALUE & STILL CAN BE CONSIDER PREMIER INVESTING AVENUE WHERE U CAN PARK YOUR MONIES LOH.......!!