Posted by nicholasnwh90 > 2014-05-22 21:57 | Report Abuse

Raider how come no more posting here ar???

Posted by changbl > 2014-05-27 20:30 | Report Abuse

General Raider, please comment about why PetDag free fall the past few weeks? What can we actually learn from this. Dlady qtr results also very kuku. Will it have the same fate?

Posted by stockraider > 2014-05-28 14:26 | Report Abuse

Pet Dag...raider always say it is overvalue....use to be PE 30x..!!
The selloff....improve the PE slightly....but still overvalue loh...!!

Buy based on dividend yield n earnings....as an anchor loh....!!
But this price is still overvalue mah....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-05-29 23:54 | Report Abuse

Raider....notice....a lot of people.....buy a good share.....then selloff.....when price goes up....!!
Then they hope....market will selldown.....and then buyback again...!!

Is this method a good strategy ?
Most of the time no loh......!!

THE STRATEGY IS CONSIDER GOOD.....WHEN HE BUY UNDERVALUE AND SELL OVERVALUE LOH.....!!
BUT NORMALLY A SHARE TAKE A LONG TIME....TO MOVE BETWEEN UNDERVALUE TO OVERVALUE....IT CAN EASILY TAKES 2 TO 3 YRS TO COMPLETE THE CYCLE MAH..! AS A RESULT U NEED TO HOLD THE STOCK LONGER....TO HIT THIS TYPE OF RESULT LOH.....!!

THEREFORE....U NEED TO VALUE STOCK....AND UNDERSTAND RELATIVE VALUE MAH...!!
FOR EXAMPLE....KFIMA AT RM 2.16 PE 11X....DO U CONSIDER OVERVALUE OR UNDERVALUE LEH ?

U NEED TO COMPARE THE RELATIVE VALUE...LIKE KLK PE 22X AND THE OPPORTUNITY COST OF INVESTMENT LIKE FIXED DEPOSITS GIVING 3% PA AND THE RENTAL YIELD OF PROPERTY GIVING 2 TO 5% PA MAH.....!!

IF U COMPARE THIS WAY.....THEN U R ABLE TO GAUGE....VALUATION....ONLY THEN....U R IN POSITION TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF MR MARKET LOH....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-11 22:19 | Report Abuse

A LESSON ON MARKET MANAGEMENT DURING CRISIS & HOW TO INTERPRET & TAKE ADVANTAGE LOH......!!

Important Investment Wisdom From Raider.....!!

A word of wisdom to the aspiring investor & our future investing heroes

Remember loh....!
In the market.....unlike bull...........the bear have limited life span......!
once they cabut.....they are no more bear loh.........!

The bear strategy....is do create....panic to everibody by creating more more bear....by their cakap kosong loh.....!
Basically they want to create a bear from a bull loh....!
They cannot create a bear from a bear....bcos they are impotent loh...!
Why leh ? They are p.on..dan mah.....!
Ignore them loh...! Basically they are just a bunch of p.on..dan!!...with no bite loh....!

Get your buying strategy right....& U no afraid any bear loh....!
Always.........margin of safety loh.......!

Yes when buying is right.......everything is alright..........!!
no fear election...........!!
Bcos of the soundness of your investment, selection u bound to gain...!!
Select fundamental stock with high margin of safety loh........!!

There is no way to fear & hide loh......!!
Even u keep....your monies in FD.........u could be robbed directly by the govt......like in Cyprus....!!
Or u can also be robbed indirectly........by Mr Inflation.....without u knowing !!

Scary ? Yes.........thats is life.....u must be brave....face life......face challenge & be brave and do the right thing...!!
This is the only way.......to survive in this financial world.....!!

If u continue to be pun...dan....u always will lose ....in the long run....!!
THERE IS NO WAY TO RUN.....!!!

GO GO GO.....BULL ARMIES.....!!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-11 22:22 | Report Abuse

QUESTION
wondering whether investing in undervalued counters on Bursa really works or not. If Dow Jones confirmed yes, but Bursa??
Some well known undervalued counters with good profit and assets, low PE remains undervalue although everyone knows is undervalue. Only up a bit when dividend declared but eventually goes down. So is it really that important for undervalue or low PE?
Some very expensive counters with high PE among others in the same industry moving up every year.
Please enlighten....!!

ANSWER
Raider Comment.......!!
This is the dilema of all investor since the the days of cave man started to invest loh.......!!
In investment there bound to be risk also mah..!!
If so easy.......panlai leno & raider cannot cari makan loh......!!


YES IF U APPROACH STOCKMKT........ON THE CARI......MAKAN.....SHORT TERM FORECAST BASIS.......LIKE PLAY 4D.......SURE GOT PROBLEM MAH.....!!! THIS IS BCOS TUKANG TILIK PREDICTION APPROACH......NOT SO EASY LOH........!!

IF U INVEST ON A LONGER RUN (PERIOD OF SAY ABOUT 3 YRS)........AND BUSINESS LIKE MANNER.........BUYING INTO UNDERVALUE WITH MAREGIN OF SAFETY..........HOLDING ON BIGGER GAIN..........SURE CAN CARI MAKAN MAH.....!!

LIKE RAIDER NAPSHOT.......LIST ALREADY SHOW GOOD GOOD RETURN MAH.....!! THIS IS ABOUT AVERAGE 1.5 YRS LOH....!!
YES RAIDER GOT LOSSES ALSO LOH..........BUT THE GAIN IS MUCH MORE & MUCH BIGGER MAH.....!!!
THEREFORE CONFIRMED ......RAIDER IS PANLAI IN INVESTMENT MAH....!!

U CAN ALSO BE PANLAI LOH.....!!!

Go Go Go....MNRB....!!!
Go Go Go....OSK....!!!
Go Go Go Go.....Prkcorp....!!!
Go Go General Raider......!!!
Come Come Come $$$$$$$$$$$!!!

OPPORTUNITY MAH..........DON MISS LOH....!!

Posted by Steven Yong > 2014-06-11 22:29 | Report Abuse

Raider, what to buy now? Jobstreet or bright pack? Im going all in soon.

Posted by fortunebullz > 2014-06-11 22:41 | Report Abuse

Hahahaha! Raider! There's a school of thoughts call TA or technical analysis! You buy when the bear is making faces and sell when the bull fart the most! Just to share my 2 cents! Hahahaha!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-18 17:35 | Report Abuse

LESSON CONTINUE :

The mistake of investment fear......!!! (IN A SIMILIAR CONTEXT THIS IS APPLICABLE TO MSIA AS WELL EXAMPLE LIKE FEAR OF ELECTION !)


There was a lot of hand-wringing last year among CEOs who cried “uncertainty” when faced with capital allocation
decisions (despite many of their businesses having enjoyed record levels of both earnings and
cash).
At Berkshire, we didn’t share their fears, instead spending a record $9.8 billion on plant and
equipment in 2012, about 88% of it in the United States. That’s 19% more than we spent in 2011, our
previous high.
Charlie and I love investing large sums in worthwhile projects, whatever the * are
saying DOOM.
We instead heed the words from Gary Allan’s new country song, “Every Storm Runs Out of Rain.”
We will keep our foot to the floor and will almost certainly set still another record for capital expenditures
in 2013. Opportunities abound in America.
* * * * * * * * * * * *
A thought for my fellow CEOs: Of course, the immediate future is uncertain; America has faced the
unknown since 1776.(UNCERTAINTY IS PART OF BUSINESS SINCE DINOSAUR TIME)
It’s just that sometimes people focus on the myriad of uncertainties that always exist
while at other times they ignore them (usually because the recent past has been uneventful).

American business will do fine over time(EVENTUALLY MSIS BUSINESS WILL DO FINE TOO). And stocks will do well just as certainly, since their fate is tied to business performance.
Periodic setbacks will occur, yes, but investors and managers are in a game that is heavily stacked in their favor(INVESTMENT THRU MARGIN OF SAFETY HAD BEEN ALWAYS A WINNER GAME).
(The Dow Jones Industrials advanced from 66 to 11,497 in the 20th Century, a staggering 17,320% increase that materialized despite four costly wars, a Great Depression and many recessions. And don’t forget that shareholders received substantial dividends throughout the century as well.)
Since the basic game is so favorable(CAREFUL INVESTMENT GAME IS VERY FAVOURABLE), Charlie and I believe it’s a terrible mistake to try to dance in and out of it based upon the turn of tarot cards, the predictions of “experts,” or the ebb and flow of business activity.
The risks of being out of the game are huge compared to the risks of being in it.
My own history provides a dramatic example: I made my first stock purchase in the spring of 1942 when
the U.S. was suffering major losses throughout the Pacific war zone.
Each day’s headlines told of more setbacks. Even so, there was no talk about uncertainty; every American I knew believed we would prevail.
The country’s success since that perilous time boggles the mind: On an inflation-adjusted basis, GDP per
capita more than quadrupled between 1941 and 2012.
Throughout that period, every tomorrow has been uncertain. America’s destiny, however, has always been clear: ever-increasing abundance.
If you are a CEO who has some large, profitable project you are shelving because of short-term worries(BCOS OF ELECTION WORRIES LOOK OUT FOR GENERAL RAIDER),call Berkshire. Let us unburden you.
* * * * * * * * * * * *
In summary, Charlie and I hope to build per-share intrinsic value by
(1) improving the earning power of our many subsidiaries;
(2) further increasing their earnings through bolt-on acquisitions;
(3) participating in the growth of our investees;
(4) repurchasing Berkshire shares when they are available at a meaningful discount from intrinsic value;
(5) making an occasional large acquisition. We will also try to maximize results for you by rarely, if ever, issuing Berkshire shares.

NOTICE THAT WARREN ADVISE U NOT TO FEAR & HAVE CONFIDENCE TO GET ON WITH BUSINESS WHATEVER TIME...!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-18 17:44 | Report Abuse

Intelligent investor guideline

1)The company is a marathoner, not a sprinter. By looking back at the income statements, you can see whether revenues and net earnings have grown smoothly and steadily over the previous 10 years. INVESTMENT FOR LONGER TERM OFFER BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SUCCESS

2)The most realistic distinction between the investor and the speculator is found in their attitude toward stock-market movements.MUST HAVE A RIGHT ATTITUDE. BE DISCIPLINE FOLLOW BUSINESS LIKE TOWARDS SELECTION BASED ON FUNDAMENTAL INSTEAD OF PRICE MOVEMENT

3)how defensive you should be depends less on your tolerence for risk than on your willingness to put time and energy into your portfolio. LOOK AT YOURSELF 1ST B4 EMBARKING..! UNDERSTANDING 1SELF 100 BATTLE....100 WINS...!

4)Since common stocks, even investment grade, are subject to recurrent and wide fluctuations in their prices, the intelligent investor should be interested in the possibilities of profiting from these pendulum swings.PROFIT FROM MR MARKET....ACT CONTRAIAN LOH....!

5)Individuals who cannot master their emotions are ill-suited to profit from the investment process.IF U CANNOT TOLERATE SHARE PRICE FLUCTUATION DOWNWARDS....U R NOT SUITED TO STOCK INVESTMENT

6)on the contrary, i do get very excited when prices drop. imagine 50%, thats like a dream come true. (given fundamentals are intact).
i put in fresh capital and reinvest dividends yearly, so if prices shoots up, i m kinda sad coz i can only buy less and if it becomes overpriced i feel like crying coz i cannot do my shoppin. WELCOME STOCK PRICE THAT GO DOWNWARDS INSTEAD OF UPWARDS. BUT BE WARY WHEN PRICE MOVE UPWARDS

7)If we assume that it is the habit of the market to overvalue common stocks which have been showing excellent growth or are glamorous for some other reason, it is logical to expect that it will undervalue - relative, at least - companies that are out of favor because of unsatisfactory developments of a temporary nature. This may be set down as a fundamental law of the stock market, and it suggests an investment approach that should prove both conservative and promising.RECOGNISE THAT MR MARKET ALWAYS DO THINGS ON THE EXTREME & ALWAYS OVERSHOT UPWARDS & DOWNWARDS LOH....!!

8)The challenge for the intelligent investor is not to find the stocks that will go up the most and down the least, but rather to prevent yourself from being your own worst enemy - from buying high just because Mr. Market says "Buy!" and from selling low because Mr. Market says "Sell!" U MUST ADHERE TO A SYSTEM & MUST BE DISCIPLINE

9)With current assets at least twice their current liabilities, these firms had a sizeble cushion of working capital that - on average - should sustain them through hard times.STRONG BALANCE SHEET IS ONE OF THE MARGIN SAFETY FACTOR

10)the intelligent investor should recognize that market panics can create great prices for good companies and good prices for great companies. Every once in a while, value and growth stocks alike go on sale.IF STOCK IS OVERVALUE U NEED TO PATIENTLY WAIT..!

11)"Have the courage of your knowledge and experience.If you have formed a conclusion from the facts and if you know your judgement is sound, act on it - even though others may hesitate or differ."HAVE COURAGE....THATS WHY ONCE A WHILE RAIDER CALL HIMSELF..."GENERAL" N LEAD THE BULL ARMIES BCOS RAIDER VELI BRAVE MAH...!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-18 17:46 | Report Abuse

Lesson on Value investing

Value investing, today as in the era of Graham and Dodd, is the practice of purchasing securities or assets for less than they are worth—the proverbial dollar for 50 cents. Investing in bargain-priced securities provides a “margin of safety”—room for error, imprecision, bad luck, or the vicissitudes of the economy and stock market. While some might mistakenly consider value investing a mechanical tool for identifying bargains, it is actually a comprehensive investment philosophy that emphasizes the need to perform in-depth fundamental analysis, pursue long-term investment results, limit risk, and resist crowd psychology.


Note the main phrases:

purchasing securities or assets for less than they are worth

the proverbial dollar for 50 cents.

“margin of safety”

a comprehensive investment philosophy

perform in-depth fundamental analysis,

pursue long-term investment results,

limit risk

resist crowd psychology


THE CHALLENGES OF VALUE INVESTMENT

Far too many people approach the stock market with a focus on making money quickly. Such an orientation involves speculation rather than investment and is based on the hope that share prices will rise irrespective of valuation. Speculators generally regard stocks as pieces of paper to be quickly traded back and forth, foolishly decoupling them from business reality and valuation criteria.
Speculative approaches—which pay little or no attention to downside risk—are especially popular in rising markets. In heady times, few are sufficiently disciplined to maintain strict standards of valuation and risk aversion, especially when most of those abandoning such standards are quickly getting rich. After all, it is easy to confuse genius with a bull market.


Note the main phrases:

focus on making money quickly

speculation rather than investment

hope that share prices will rise

irrespective of valuation

regard stocks as pieces of paper

quickly traded back and forth,

foolishly decoupling them from business reality and valuation criteria

pay little or no attention to downside risk

especially popular in rising markets.

few are sufficiently disciplined to maintain strict standards of valuation and risk aversion

it is easy to confuse genius with a bull market.

IN REALITY MARKET ON THE UPSIDE ARE DRIVEN BY SENTIMENT HOPE, GREED AND EXPECTATION
ON THE DOWNSIDE, ARE DRIVEN BY SENTIMENT OF FEAR, DESPAIR AND PESSIMISM

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-18 17:48 | Report Abuse

Value investing continue.....!!

SOMETIME STOCK TRADE AT A DISCOUNT TO INTRINSIC VALUE

There are many reasons why a stock might trade at a discount to it’s intrinsic worth, however, the most common reason is short term profit disappointment, which often results in a substantial share price fall.
Frequently these disappointments can produce a strong emotional reaction in shareholders who sell their stock fearing further negative developments. Value investors recognise two things.
Firstly, most businesses are long term in nature and the real affect of short term profits falls on the long term value of a business is often small.
Secondly they recognise that, on average, most company profits are mean reverting over time. i.e. over the longer term, disastrous profit falls are frequently reversed and conversely, extremely strong profit growth tends to slow.

NEED TO INVESTIGATE JUSTIFICATION OF SHARE PRICE FALL WHETHER IT IS PERMANENT OR TEMP IN NATURE

This is a remarkably powerful fact and often not easy to believe. The reason is that there are so many high profile examples of it not being true! Enron, Worldcom & Lehman Brothers all saw profit declines that did not bounce back (neither did their shareprices). Conversely, Microsoft and Amazon are two businesses where profits have risen steadily since their inception and show no signs of falling back to an average any time soon.
However, as humans, high profile examples tend to stick in our minds, even if they are not reflective of what happens on average.

EXPLOIT MR MARKET AGST FUNDAMENTAL VALUE

Value investing seeks to exploit the irrational behavior of emotional investors. Emotion is a constant feature of investment markets through time and whilst the companies available to stock market investors change from decade to decade, the human nature of the investors themselves doesn’t. Fear and greed remain ever present and frequently lead to poor investment decisions based on perception and emotion rather than reality. Periodically these miss pricings can become extreme (the tech bubble of the 1990s or, conversely, the great depression of the 1930s), however, they exist to a greater or lesser extent in most markets. This creates an opportunity for dispassionate, long term value investors. Though this concept seems simple, sensible and, hopefully, appealing, it is much easier to say than do in practice.

VALUE INVESTING WORK OVER LONG TERM...NOT SO EFFECTIVE SHORT TERM

Value investing is not always in favour and does not always outperform over shorter time periods. In the short term the market is a voting machine, whilst over the longer term it tends to be a weighing machine.
Over the last 100 years there have been many periods where buying cheap stocks has not been a short term vote winner and other investments have been the darlings of the day.
These periods may last for some years during which time value investors are made to look foolish and are dismissed as being out of touch.
This is psychologically arduous for both fund managers and their clients alike and requires a balance of humility and fortitude. However, the long term results from this approach are extremely attractive – seldom are the best things easy.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-18 17:53 | Report Abuse

Lesson Continue..........Understanding MR Market Behavior Loh.....!!

It's always like that one mah....!!!
When price low......buy cheap.....buy base on margin of safety.....undervalue....etc....etc.... .!!!
This is when the stock is in a coma mah...!!!
When price go up....to fair value....u base on your valuation on growth model.....to justify & value higher price mah....!!
This is when the stock at go go time loh....!!

It is always like that one loh...!!

A good example of a coma pick today is PRK corp PE 3x at Rm 1.31 loh.....!!

When stock is in a Go Go growth stage like: Ahealth and Zhulian the stock will be rerated in the region of current 10X to 15X PE, however with no factoring in of valuation of growth model loh....!!
if u factor in growth model....u think the STOCK still get PE 10x meh ?
It will be in the region of PE 15X to 24X mah....!!
Something like carlsberg & D lady loh.....!!

SO Do not blame raider on this fickle valuation loh....!!!
Blame the investor loh....!!!
When PE 3x like Perak Corp....don buy....say coma....this & coma that.....!!!
When PE 10-15X like Ahealth & zhulian.....say already went up and overvalue loh.....don dare loh......!!!
When PE 24x-30x like nestle & dlady....say good growth model n buy quality at fair price n can go up some more..bcos good durable quality loh.....!!!

This is how investor think & behave mah.....!!!

But a true value investor like raider.....will not fall into this trap loh.....bcos he always use margin of safety & valuation as reference & guidance mah.....!

The true value investor will not be manipulated by MR Market Mah.....!!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-18 17:57 | Report Abuse

RAIDER COMMENT ON VALUE TRAPS !!:.....AFTER YOU HAVE DONE YOUR HOMEWORK.....& CHOSE STOCKS WITH HIGH MARGIN OF SAFETY.....U STILL CANNOT ESCAPE THE RISK OF VALUE TRAPS......!!
THIS BCOS THE SHORT TERM ISSUE FOR A STOCK TO RISE DEPENDS ON BUYING POWER OF THE INVESTOR....& IT NEED TO BE TRANSLATED TO THE SHORT TERM SENTIMENT & INVESTOR INTEREST LOH.....!!

HOWEVER IF U LOOK AT INVESTMENT ON A LONGER TERM, SAY UPTO 3 YRS......U WILL HAVE A VERY FAVORABLE CHANCE TO MAKE GOOD MONIES LOH.....!!

FOR THE PEOPLE WHO ARE WORRY ABOUT VALUE TRAPS, U CAN EMPLOY THE FOLLOWING STRATEGY TO IMPROVE YOUR SUCCESS RATE LOH:

1) MONITOR THE STOCK PERFORMANCE, LOOK FOR A CATALYST OR CORP DEVELOPMENT......LIKE PAYING HIGHER DIVIDEND, MANAGEMENT GOING FOR ROADSHOW, OR MANAGEMENT MORE WILLING TO BE INTERVIEWED BY THE PRESS....ETC.
2) THE OTHER IS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR PORTFOLIO....PREFERABLY MORE THAN 30 COUNTERS....TO REDUCE THE BAD LUCK PROBABILITY.....!!
3) TRY TO MAKE SURE....THERE IS SOME RETURN.....LIKE DIVIDEND.......WHILE U WAIT LOH.....!!
4) U CAN ALSO MAKE USE OF TA......FOR A FAVORABLE ENTRY......ONCE U HAV, I IDENTIFY THE STOCK U WANT TO BUY LOH......!!!
5) INVESTOR ACTIVISM COULD BE ANOTHER TRIGGER POINT OR CATALYST.....!!
6) FINALLY DO LOOK OUT FOR RISK SUCH SIGN NEGATIVE CORP DEVELOPMENT.......WHICH U WILL NEED TO CUT & LARI KUAT KUAT AS WELL.....!!!

THE VALUE INVESTMENT MODEL......IS A POSITIVE WINNER GAME....STAY FOCUSSED AND BE DISCIPLINE & PATIENT WITH YOUR INVESTMENT SYSTEM LOH.....!!


Lesson continue.....loh.....!!

Basic common sense investment......!!

The following points are basic common sense investment measurement that even a nursey child would understand but surprisingly alot intelligent investor do not understand loh....!!

Generally for investor should accept the following fundamental points for good of investor:

1) Low Pe better than high Pe
2) Low P/nta better than High P/nta
3)High dividend yield better than better than lOW Dividend yield
4) High Growth in EPS better than low
5) High net cash better than low cash per share
6) Strong cashflow per share better than low cash per share

U will be surprise.....alot of so-called intelligent investor do not agree to the above points loh......!!

For a fundamental smart value investor like Raider......... should have no problem.....accepting these essential investment foundation principle

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-18 18:09 | Report Abuse

Lesson continue- How to value and analyse stock for all seasons.....The Raider's way!!

Having look into some of its fundamentals, let us decide on the QUALITY of this stock, using a simple set of screening questions below.

A)Internal measurement

1. Selecting Good Investable Stocks with wide margin of safety

Look at the Revenue, PBT and Earnings and cashflow (or diluted EPS) over a now and upto 5 year period.

But most important is latest quarterly earnings and current earnings and watchout for exceptional item loh...!

Select those companies that can deliver both topline and bottomline growths 8% preferably or more but most important is Revenue earnings and sustainable going forward.

2. The earnings must translate into positive CFO and positive FCF (= CFO-Capex). Look out for sustainable cashflow loh..!

3. The debt of the company must be reasonable. Debt/Equity < 30% but it is best if there is net cash loh!.

4. Preferably the PBT margin is growing or at least maintain over 3 years. The net margin of at least 8%.

5. Preferably the cash and cash equivalent should be more than the total debts of the company.

6. ROE of at least 8% good enough in view of cash risk free return only 3% currently.

7. The company should have declared dividends regularly, preferably also increasing dividends over the years but most important is the consistent dividend yield.

8. DPO ratio be at least 30% mah !.

9. Look for corporate Governance Track Record and quality of management

The above criteria is an internal measurement.....but ultimate come from external measurement below loh....!




B) External Measurement- All relate to the share price u pay mah....!

1) PE for secondary stock not less than 10x or earnings yield of 10% p.a. For bluechips PE 14X is max tolerated loh...!Be veri excited if PE fall below 6x on sustainable basis....this mean u are getting close to Ah Long Rate [So, you will miss the company that is trading with P/E of 31 and growing at 50% .. Thinking ]

2) Discount to NTA preferably loh....but be very excited when it discount more than 50% [ Sweat Well, I suppose you will be excited by Lion Diversified ... huge discount to NTA.]

3) Free Cashflow yield share should exceed 10% p.a. Beri veri excited if exceed 16% p.a [ Sweat The only time I find FCF yield > 10% are in those stocks that recently tanked due to fundamental deterioration. When their share prices drop a lot, all the valuation ratios look great. Such yield level should make your suspicious first, and excited only later. Thumbs Up ].

4) Dividend min 3% p.a. for bluechip and secondary stock 4% p.a. Be veri excited if it exceed 6% p.a. Also check for sustainable loh....! [Avoid those stocks where the DY is too high. Often it means their prices have dropped recently due to fundamental deterioration. Need to be aware. Be concern first, before you get excited. Similar explanation as for 3 above, all valuation ratios get better when prices of stock dropped.] Thinking

5) If the cash more than share price be exceptional excited loh....! [LCTH for example! Smiley ]

6) Review quality and business prospect thru surveying and discussion with consumer and competitor Thumbs Up


The Internal measurement give u a feel about the company quality of the company but the external measurement let u know whether u bought into a value stock with margin of safety loh....!

Investment is an art.....u don have to fulfil 100% of the criteria....u need to see worth it or not......u need to make your own intelligent judgement loh...!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-18 18:13 | Report Abuse

Raider's Investment Lesson Continue:


The stock price is bid up and down like in a popularity contest in the stock market over the short term. However, in the long term, this stock price is weighed using the value weighing machine by the stock market.

Therefore, if you are:

- able to select stocks with sustainable earning growth potentials,
- able to value its business,
- able to avoid these stocks when they are obviously overpriced,
- able to buy at fair or below its fair value (value investing),
- able to control your emotions, and,
- able to ignore and NOT to be influenced by the vagaries of the stock market,

you will always be a winner with a high degree of proba-bility over the long term.

It is simple and you have plenty of time to enjoy life to the fullest.


The challenges posed:

- able to select stocks with sustainable earning growth potentials,
[Learn from Buffett. How he selects his stocks, with durable competitive advantage, economic moat, etc.]

- able to value its business,
[Learn how to value assets and businesses. Understand DCF, asset valuations, valuation using earnings multiples, etc. The assumptions used should be conservative.]

- able to avoid these stocks when they are obviously overpriced,
[Learn the vagaries of the herd. Assets can be bid up in prices way above its fair value. Be able to recognise the danger of a bubble, rather than be sucked into it by greed.]

- able to buy at fair or below its fair value (value investing),
[Learn and be able to value an asset using conservative assumptions. Yet, still ask of yourself a margin of safety in case you got the valuation wrong. In any case, the market always serve you a good bargain... ALWAYS.]

- able to control your emotions, and,
[Learn and understand the biggest challenge and danger in investing is YOURSELF. Always review your emotions based on facts and figures. Do not allow greed or fear to dominate. Go back to basic philosophy, principles and strategies you have adopted for your investing.]

- able to ignore and NOT to be influenced by the vagaries of the stock market,
[Learn that the crowd can often be right and also at times, very wrong. Be aware of the crowd behaviour but do not follow the crowd blindly. Always trust your own assessment of quality, management and value of the investment you wish to make. Do not look for confirmation from the crowd.]

Although the investment discipline recommended is very simple, but alot of intelligent people failed this basic test ....!!

In order, to be a good investor u must look into the character of one make up and build own the strength and reduce the weaknesses....!!

Posted by optimusx8888 > 2014-06-18 18:14 | Report Abuse

this sifu many lessons. i also no time to read, but sure got some good insights.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-18 18:18 | Report Abuse

Raider's lesson on investment loh....!!

What is the fair value?

The answer of fair value may not be so easily summed up with an endorsement of one transaction or another. Fair value (or undervalued or overvalued) can depend on a long list of extenuating circumstances.

As was previously stressed, investment analysis is not an exact science; it is more an art.

Even though it may be deeply lodged in the quantitative formats, financial analysis still requires a good deal of the "human touch," for it is the study of a business, not the numbers on a financial statement.

In conclusion valuation is dynamic Loh.....!!

yesterday raider run thru.....some assets of a listed company loh.....!!

Raider notice- the following from a investigative research whis is interesting...a listed company acquire a bungalow property for Rm 900k in 1996......but in 2003.......the company.......need to provide impairment of Rm 300k....bcos the deemed the fair value is Rm 600k....!!

But then 2011......the property which has a fair value of Rm 600k in 2003....now have a value of Rm 2.4m.......!!

What happen.....? Fair value of Rm 900k in 1996........then Rm 600k.....2003........and then fair value Rm 2.4m and 2011....!!

All these are due to perceive value.......!!

Valuation is dynamic mah..........!!

Thats why not all accountant.........can record proper value........bcos they don understand.....the dynamism of fair value loh...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-18 18:24 | Report Abuse

Raider's investment lesson continue.......!!

Raider receive a few email from some fancees.....asking.....why raider......so xcited......when the mkt so boring ?

Veli valid....observation & a veri good question.......!!!

Answer: A good investor should be veli xcited when mkt is bearish and boring and should be nervous when mkt is bullish and xcited...!
Basically a good fundamental investor is a natural contraian.......!!

Like warren buffet says:

U should be greedy when other is fearful
U shhould be fearful when other greedy loh


This is an important point when investor buy and sell loh....try measure the degree of greed and fear mah....!!

Posted by optimusx8888 > 2014-06-18 18:25 | Report Abuse

radier. just tell us what to buy or sell, we dont understand english.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-18 18:34 | Report Abuse

Raider's investment tech an improvement & new adaptation since 2009:

1) Leech Tech- A Copycat investment devise by Raider

2) Margin of Safety Play- Fundamental investment Raider learn from Senior Analyst

3) Strong Balance Sheet, Low PE,Strong cashflow, High NTA and Growth Play-Fundamental Investment learn from Senior Analyst

4) Taking Advantage of MR Market-Investment Psychology Raider learn from Senior Analyst

5) * Play- Arbitrage Bond Play raider learn from senior analyst

6) RCWPROVE$$- A card counting investment tech devise by Raider

7) Panic 1st Play- A Psychology investment Play Raider learn from Tukang Tilik


Learn it all here in this thread & in investlah.....veli useful loh.....!!!



Based on the above Stock market modules......there is always an appropriate module to use for each relevant condition, ocassion & time loh...!!

The best modules base on current time......is to use " Panic 1st Play Psychology modules...!!"

U need to Panic 1st to Sell.!!!....in which u have executed well if u had followed Raider's sell Call mah....!!

The next u need to "Panic 1st to Buy loh"...!!- A Raider Favorite Call loh!!....but just hang on loh...!!

Just wait for the appropriate moment to Strike loh.....!!!

Posted by NOBY > 2014-06-18 18:35 | Report Abuse

Raider, can you comment on ECM Libra which is trading below NAV and most of its assets are in liquid cash or investments.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-18 18:35 | Report Abuse

Yes u can do it & everyone can do it loh.....!!!
Just look at Raider approach make sense or not ah ??


ALOT OF NEWBIES ASK RAIDER WHY CAN STAY CALM & AT THE SAME TIME LARI KUAT KUAT ?
WOULD NOT THIS 2 APPROACH MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE AH ?

YES & NO LOH.....!!!
LESSON CONTINUE ON PANIC STRATEGY......!

1)IF U CHOSE LARI KUAT KUAT.....BETTER DO IT NOW LOH....!!
1ST STRIKE IS ALWAYS THE BEST MAH.....!!

2)IF U CHOSE CALM....WAIT FOR STRIKING OPPORTUNITY....AT A LATER STAGE LOH....!!!
BE PATIENT & WAIT LOH.......!!!

3)IF U CHOSE LARI KUAT KUAT & CALM & STRIKING OPPORTUNITY....JUST GO THRU YOUR PORTFOLIO....OVERVALUE & STOCK THAT HAD RISEN ALOT JUST HANTAM OUT LOH...!!
WAITLOH.....!!! FOR FURTHER BLOODBATH B4 GET IT OR POSSIBLE REBOUND OR WAIT FOR XTREME UNDERVALUE LOH.....!!


ALWAYS MUST BE PANLAI LOH......!!!
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF MR MARKET MAH....!!
NOT MR MARKET TAKE ADVANTAGE OF U LOH....!!


WHY RAIDER USE HYBRID STRATEGY(BENEFIT OF BOTH WORLD!!) LEH ?
THE REASON IS THAT STOCKMKT CAN STAY LOW & DOWN FOR A LONG TIME MAH.....!!!
YES U CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF MR MARKET BCOS OF THE UNDERVALUATION MAH....!!!.
U NEED TO STAY CALM & WAIT FOR OPPORTUNITY LOH...!

U DON LET MR MARKET CONFUSE U BCOS OF FEAR & PANIC LOH.....!!!
IF U WANT TO PANIC....U SHOULD BE the 1st PANIC- QUICKLY 1ST.....B4 MR MARKET VELI PANIC LOH....!!!
DON LET MR MARKET GET AHEAD OF U 1ST LOH.....BCOS OF THIS PANIC PLAY LOH.....!!

Conclusion....!!

So raider's stay calm & wait for investment opportunity at a later time !! & if panic....better panic now !! & be panic 1st b4 MR Market veli....panic....!! Is the best stockmarket panic play strategy loh.....!!



Quote from: iiinvestsmart on May 16, 2012, 05:12:46 PM
Under a down market you have several options.

1. One of them is to sell immediately in order to minimize your losses.
2. Another option is to let the market work its way through the problem with no action from your side.
3. A third option is to benefit from the stock decline and add some more to your portfolio. But, this should be done only if you don't perceive that there is something wrong with the company that has led to the stock decline.


My observation of investlah participants of these 3 Strategies in action.


1. Sell ALL immediately ( I call this doing a LG ) or sell partially immediately ( I call this doing a raider )

2. Do nothing to your portfolio. (The smarter investors have prepared their portfolio in a bull market to meet the emergence of a bear.)

3. Add some more ( I call this doing a SS ).


None of these strategies are right or wrong.
Can you predict how low the market will drop? No & YES MAH....!!
Can you predict the market will not drop further? No & YES MAH...!!
Can you predict the market can rebound? No & YES MAH....!!

ACTUALLY U CAN PREDICT THE MKT DIRECTION LOH....!! IT IS VELI USEFUL & WORTHWHILE SHORT TERM....ESPECIALLY DURING MKT PANIC......!!
BUT OVER LONG TERM QUALITY & UNDERVALUE EQUITIES ALWAYS GO UP MAH....THIS MAKE YOUR LONG TERM TA ANALYSIS VELI RISKY LOH.....!!

Therefore, it is hilarious looking at the many opinions in this forum, each claiming to be more right than the other. Many in the forum are short term players, therefore, their actions and thinking are accordingly myopic. -NOT TRUE LOH LIKE RAIDER UNDERSTAND THE SHORT TERM PANIC IMPACT.....CAN BENEFIT FROM IT LOH....!!
RAIDER NEED TO PANIC SELL & PANIC ONCE A WHILE TO REAP GREAT PROFIT MAH....!!

Only time will tell.-SHORT TERM PANIC USE TA....!! LONG TERM USE FA....BUY HOLD WITH MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH....!!

The only thing I can say is to heed Buffett, "Be fearful when everyone is greedy and be greedy when others are fearful."
CONCEPT IS CORRECT.....WHEN BE FEARFUL.....& WHEN BE GREEDY LEH ?
RAIDER ASK MONDAY 21-5-2012 SHOULD BE GREEDY OR FEARFUL LEH ?

Also, for those who are not allocating their money well, always remember, in the face of uncertainties, it is more important to take note of the consequences rather than the pro****lity arising from your actions.

MOST FA INVESTOR .....NOT AS PANLAI AS RAIDER....JUST STICK TO YOUR BUY HOLD STRATEGY WITH MARGIN OF SAFETY....GOOD ENOUGH LOH.....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-18 18:46 | Report Abuse

Actually the majority stockmkt is a con game loh......!!!
Thats why Dali advocate short term play ....cannot tolerate long term investment in the stockmkt bcos afraid being con loh....!!
Dali believe the mkt is a losers game.....!!

Not raider loh....!!
Raider believe mkt offer long term opportunity but need patient & a safe strategy using margin of safety loh.....!!
Raider believe it is a winner game bcos raider stick to margin of safety mah....!!


RAIDER'S COMMENT....IN THIS EXAMPLE ....".ALL INVESTORS MAKE MONIES LOH".....!!!
THIS IS DUE TO THE POWER OF COMPOUNDING LOH.....!!
LONG TERM INVESTMENT IS A WINNER'S GAME MAH......!!
ALL LONG TERM INVESTORS MAKE ALOT OF MONIES....& RAIDER MAKE THE LEAST BCOS SOLD AT PE 20X.....!!

THE TRICK IS TO FIND A WINNER LOH.....!!
U BUY AT RM 1.00-3.00 & 30 YRS TIME IT IS WORTH RM 70.00 LOH....!!!
IF U HAD SUCH STOCKS .......JUST HOLD TIGHT MAH......!!


Alot of newbies ask raider a relevant question.....is the mkt oversold ?

Raider ask back what is the purpose of this question ?

The answer raider get ?
Buy now....!! Rebound....sell loh....!!
Make a trading profit loh......!!!

Raider say this is a wrong approach loh....!!
Yes ....u can make a trading profit.....but u would make.....sustainable quality profit loh....!!

Get your investment frame of mind...on a longer term.....!!
Ask yourself what's the longer trend ?
How big is your margin of safety ?

Go for a position play.......!!!
Maximise on your direction play....!!
Minimise your risk by getting a bigger margin of safety loh....!!
This is how u should play mah......!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-18 18:47 | Report Abuse

People ask raider why be so keepoh chee.....comment on other people strategy leh ?!
Raider say for learning & for the benefit of newbies mah.....!!!


Some 2 sens advice for fundamental investors

Note: I personally will not practice the advice myself. Ignore the advice if you find me contradictory.

1.If you know the company's upcoming quarterly profit is improving nicely, do not panic sell. In fact average down whenever you can. Even though KLSE is affected by global negative sentiment, human beings will become immune to fear very soon and start hunting for low PE quality stocks. For instance, some high PBT, low PE, high NTA, good no. of shares issued (150m -250m) and dividend yielding stocks currently selling near to 52 weeks low includes lion forest 1.28 and brem 1.17.
THIS IS OK WHEN THE COMPANY HAD ALOT OF MARGIN OF SAFETY.THE LATEST GOOD QTR CONFIRM THE SUSTAINABILITY LOH...!!
Note : For quarterly performance, suggest do not look at profit after tax because result did not consider effect of defer tax.

2. Hunt down quality REITS sold cheaply. If you park large amount of cash in bank, consider REITS. My advice is Hektar (subang parade) and boustead (plantation reits). (Tender reminder I will not buy REITS myself because I am not a fundamental guy.)
WHY REITS ? HIGH DIVIDEND YIELD LOH....!!
BUT THE DRAWBACK.....REITS OVERGEARED AND POSSIBLE COMMERCIAL PROPERTY GLUT IN THE FUTURE LOH....!!
DO NOT PUT MORE THAN 20% INVESTMENT IN REITS LOH....!!

3. As for me, I will continue to accumulate penny stocks since i am a scalper. Please dun follow me because you are a fundamental investor and also because I dun want to bear responsibility.
CORRECTLOH....!! QUALITY ****** STOCK WITH MARGIN OF SAFETY....DIVIDEND YIELDING & LOW GEARING WITH MARGIN OF SAFETY IS THE ANSWER LOH....!!! Thumbs Up Thumbs Up Cash Cash


OVERALL THIS IS AN OPPORTUNE TIME LOH...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-18 18:51 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-18 18:51 | Report Abuse

Investsmart comment
you have spend a lot of time and effort selecting the best companies to invest into, you generally do not have to sell. You can hold forever. Therefore, if you look at companies the like of Nestle, PetDag, DLady and Guinness ... you can hold these forever unless there are deterioration in their fundamentals .. permanently.

Yes, for such companies, you will find that selling them at any time, trying to capture extra gains through timing the market, is generally a fool's game. You will often find that you have to buy them back at higher prices. It is better just to put these stocks you have in a cold freezer and forget about them. If the market were to fall, and they are trading at lower valuations (undervalued), take your cash to buy more. It is generally a better strategy for such stocks.

Do you disagree?

Raider comment
Correctloh.....holding quality stock forever is a good strategy loh......!!
But it is not ideal strategy loh......!!!
Raider think......if your bluechips is overvalue by 50%.....it should trigger u start reviewing your position of potential sales loh....!!! Of course u sell slowly on the way up loh.....!!!
Likewise.....if your bluechips is undervalue by 20%.....it should trigger u start buying loh....but u can do it slowly mah.....!!

In this way...u also take advantage of MR market loh.....!!

What is undervalue & overvalue leh ?
The measurement is valuation & market price mah....!!!

How to value leh ?
Internal :PE, cashflow per share, NTA per share, Cash per share, dividend and business prospect....!!!
External : Risk free interest, opportunity cost, your financial standing, time frame,business environment....etc

Mastering the above u are .....moving to route of safe fundamental investing loh.......!!!
U are prepare to handle Mr Market & take advantage of him loh......!!!

Basically Fundamental investment tilt towards contraian investment.....mah...!!!
U r betting agst the crowd & popular opinion loh.....!!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-18 18:54 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-18 18:56 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2014-06-18 19:04 | Report Abuse

Ha!Ha!

Every time you mention "SOOCHAI MR. MARKET" I am tickled to laugh. There are so many soochai in KLSE chasing Bubbles

Posted by AyamTua > 2014-06-18 19:07 | Report Abuse

I am addicted to the word "LOH" .. kikkikiki ha.. ha.. ha... my mind so filled with the words "LOH" ....

Posted by AyamTua > 2014-06-18 19:13 | Report Abuse

my big brother Fortunebullz... hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
instantenously made Calvin Tan overnight as SUPERSTAR !!!

Posted by AyamTua > 2014-06-18 19:14 | Report Abuse

Big Brother Fortunebullz: PMCORP? hopefully buy WIHTOUT HESISTATION.. without QUEUE hahahahahahhahahahaha

Posted by AyamTua > 2014-06-18 19:15 | Report Abuse

most influential bursa players: Calvin Tan and StockRaider along with Fortunebull !!!

Posted by calvintaneng > 2014-06-18 19:16 | Report Abuse

Is fortunebullz same as fortunebull? Fortunebull loves halal Tudor Gold chocolate

Posted by AyamTua > 2014-06-18 19:18 | Report Abuse

Cadbury vs Tudor Gold? which one halal? Calvin knows and PREDICTED the right answers long ago...... :D

Posted by Steven Yong > 2014-06-18 19:56 | Report Abuse

Only rm0.30 can make money mah.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-19 10:29 | Report Abuse

Actually Pmcorp at Rm 0.225 looks undervalue can accumulate loh

Posted by NOBY > 2014-06-19 10:32 | Report Abuse

Posted by NOBY > Jun 18, 2014 06:35 PM | Report Abuse X

Raider, can you comment on ECM Libra which is trading below NAV and most of its assets are in liquid cash or investments.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-19 12:02 | Report Abuse

Noby,

Raider treat....ECM, Hwang, OSK and Cliq.....as a group of cash hoard...with little or no core business mah....!!

U buy this type of business....u must make sure...it is undervalue n at a good discount and u need to patiently wait....sometime as long as 2 to 3 yrs loh......!!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-19 17:17 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-19 17:18 | Report Abuse

36. Waste your money and you're only out of money, but waste your time and you've lost a part of your life

37. Money is like manure. You have to spread it around or it smells

38. There is a very easy way to return from a casino with a small fortune: go there with a large one

39. Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing. Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing.

40.The best investments are often those that looked dead wrong when they were made.

41.Put not your trust in money, but put your money in trust

42. The safest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it in your pocket

43. If the stock market experts were so expert, they would be buying stocks not selling advice

44. The greatest waste of money is to keep it

45. Money is always there, but the pockets change

46. Money couldn't buy friends, but you got a better class of enemy.

47. The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them

48. Markets are designed to allow individuals to look after their private needs and to pursue profit. It's really a great invention and I wouldn't under-estimate the value of that, but they're not designed to take care of social needs.

50. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.

51. Stock market bubbles don't grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception

52. Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.

53. Sometimes your best investments are the ones you don't make

54. We’ve long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good. Even now, Charlie and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children.

55. Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.

56. Price is what you paid. Value is what you get.

57. The business schools reward difficult complex behavior more than simple behavior, but simple behavior is more effective.There seems to be some perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult.

58. For the typical retail investor, day trading isn’t investing, it’s gambling. If you want to gamble, go to Las Vegas; the food is better.

59. There are all kinds of businesses that Charlie and I don’t understand, but that doesn’t cause us to stay up at night. It just means we go on to the next one, and that’s what the individual investor should do.

60. The investor of today does not profit from yesterday’s growth.

61. Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.

62. Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can’t buy what is popular and do well

63. Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.

64. It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you’ll do things differently.

65. Investing in stock market where people believe in efficiency is like playing poker with someone who has been told it doesn’t do any good to look at the cards.

66. The only function of stock price forecasting is to make fortune teller look respectable.

67. You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.

68. All financial models are wrong, but some models are useful.

69. The word ‘risk’ is derives from early Italian risicare, which means ‘to dare’. In this sense, risk is a choice rather than a fate. A lot of people approach risk as if it’s the enemy when it’s really fortune’s accomplice. The truth is risk originated from not knowing what you are doing.

70. Stock market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-19 17:26 | Report Abuse

Long term investing is safe for selected stocks.

COMMENT BY RAIDER'S CRITIC
I reviewed my portfolio performance in March 2009 (the depth of the downturn) to see how this affected the returns of my portfolio. Even with the severe market decline, you can be comfortable with holding your stocks when you know the difference between price and value. Yes, those who feel they can time the market to improve on the gains .. I do wish them luck (perhaps, raider can offer his vast experience on his "successful" timing the market Smiley )

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tWENexpUrXS_RMxB7k73RgQ&output=html

RAIDER'S REPLY,
"HOWEVER BEING A TRADER IS NOT ENTIRELY WRONGLOH....THE KEY IS THAT U MUST UNDERSTAND HOW MR MARKET WORKS MAH....!!!

JUST SAY DURING CRISIS U BUY QUALITY ****** AT 70% DISCOUNT TO ITS FAIR VALUE (USE MARGIN OF SAFETY CALCULATION)
IF THE STOCK RECOVER 50% WITHIN 1 YR.....U ALREADY MAKE 50% GAIN MAH......!!!

A VELI GOOD EXAMPLE IS THE VELI MUCH PROMOTED GSB LOH....!!!
IF U HAD BOUGHT THE STOCK AT RM 0.05-0.07 AND SOLD RM 0.095-0.13 U ALREADY MAKE A BIG WONDERFUL GAIN WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD MAH...!! "

U WILL NOTICE THAT RAIDER APPEAR TIMING THE MKT....!!!
BUT IT IS ACTUALLY IT IS NOT TIMING LOH.....!!!
RAIDER R TAKING ADVANTAGE OF MR MARKET USING MARGIN OF SAFETY PRINCIPLE MAH ....!!!
THIS IS BASING VALUE INVESTMENT MAH....!!
RAIDER APPEAR TO MAKE QUICK PROFIT....JUST BCOS MKT RECOVER FAST....THE PRINCIPLE IS STILL THE SAME MR MARKET FOOLISH ACTION V MARGIN OF SAFETY VALUATION LOH....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-19 17:40 | Report Abuse

Spotting Multi Baggers In The Making- A DALI'S APPROACH MODIFIED BY RAIDER LOH....!!
WHY RAIDER MODIFIED LEH ?
BCOS RAIDER DO NOT ADVOCATE OVERVALUE TAIL END MOMENTUM PLAY LIKE DALI LOH....!!
ALTHOUGH CAN MAKE MONIES BUT RISKY MAH.....!!!

Multi baggers are harder to come by as the market reaches its all time high.
PIE is definitely an emerging multi bagger in the making.
The characteristics of a multi-bagger:

a) OVERLOOKED - Investors in general have failed to anticipate the changed business model, which gives rise to sustained exponential growth in EPS and solid margins over a prolonged period of at least 2-4 years. PIE fits the bill.

b) UNDER RESEARCHED / INSTITUTIONAL - Funds are generally not in yet as the counter is under researched, the ones who can manage to get in early are the private investors who did their homework diligently. For PIE's case, those who bought over the last 1 years, and the amount which they managed to buy was not significant anyway.

c) LIQUIDITY / VALUATION - One of the main reasons the stock was under researched was because there was no liquidity. There was noi liquidity because the owners were busily collecting shares, even PIE employees & MAJOR ASSOCIATES have been ploughing their monies into buying the stock every month.
Hence without proper liquidity the market cannot accord a fair price to the stock. Or a fair valuation.

d) CATALYST - The POTENTIAL massive re-rating has begun in earnest owing to the corporate exercise which will jump total shares from just below 64m to nearly a 130M shares on a POTENTIAL BONUS
Already there are plenty of funds lining up to put in their bids which had a massive re-rating upwards owing to better liquidity.FURTHERMORE AT PE 7X, CASH RICH, BIG DIVIDEND AND STRONG BALANCE SHEET ENTAIL A STRONG RERATING MAH
Why liquidity is foremost in obtaining good valuation?
Once funds can move in and out, they will want to own the shares especially when valuations and growth prospects are still very compelling.

e) SIZE - A most important factor in a multi bagger is the size.
You want IOI Corp to make 50% in appreciation in its share price now, its a phenomenal task as the market cap is RM 36bn.
Thats why I have been advocating SMALL CAP COMPANY.
PIEs market cap can go from RM320M OR FROM RM 5.00 PER SHARE to more than RM1bn OR RM 15.00 PER SHARE in 1-3 years without needing us to really expand our imagination beyond the realms of practicality.

f) SUSTAINED RUN UP IN EARNINGS - Look at the youthfulness of the THE PIE BUSINESS AND PROSPECT, the CAPACITY will kick in higher as they SUSTAINED and they are still GROWING.
Who else will have access to add more BUSINESS WITH MEDICAL DEVICE AND APPLE CONTRACT if not FOR THE BIG PARENT HONG HAI ? Hint ... HONG HAI market cap OVER RM100 BILLION..... take all that in, which counter will post significant EPS growth for the next 3 years at least. Which counter will be better able to inject more BUSINESS liberally and having it to be huge kicker to bottom line IN THE TINY PIE COMPANY.

g) EARLY - To get a multi bagger, you must be early. At just below RM 5, is it still early? Who do you think have the confidence to buy at RM4.00 with no news, very few, hence you should check on actual trades and you will find very minimal.
What you want to judge is how was the buying been after the potential corporate announcement:

h)PIE AT RM 5.00 A STRONG GROWTH BUY LOH...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-19 17:42 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-19 17:43 | Report Abuse

Never let napshot stocks....to be excluded just bcos u have a long list portfolio loh.....!!
Of course u can always can take solace to say u can monitor a long list but bet on a very short list loh (This is true & good if U r a trader but raider find no so effective for an investor loh...!!)
AS A FAMOUS INVESTOR GEORGE SOROS SAYS U NEVER BET ......U NEVER KNOW.....U NEED TO GET YOUR FEET WET....TO WIN BIG....!!! This is the psychological aspect of investment mah


Why leh ?

1) Monitoring is stock is like watching pretty girls.....if no take the 1st step.....it remain a dream mah
2) Investing in share is like dating pretty girls....the more u date.....the better u know them better......the more xcited u get.....the more your return mah....!!
3) The more u get to know them.....the better your understanding & more confident u get and better your commitment loh..!!
Then u can handle them better, thus u get better return loh......!!! U can chose different character, aspiration & outlook...!!
4) U may chose to specialize on a few later (marry)......when u get older & more experience loh....but never never when u are still young & dynamic .....like raider and newbies mah.....!!!

Enclosed herewith general stock picking approach:


It is better that those who asked to provide more details of the companies.
At least give some financial data, eg. 5 years revenue, earnings, profit margins, ROE, dividend yield, etc. Give some of your own assessment. At least excite your reader to wish to investigate this company further.

You can use the template below to analyse Kian Joo for us here-FOR GENERAL DISCUSSION.

SOME THOUGHTS ON ANALYSING STOCKS (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Ben Graham Checklist for Finding Undervalued Stocks
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuRRzs61sKqRdFpHTldITEQyZDJuVGdDY3hTS3lvQ0E&hl=en#gid=0


The best undervalue stock an which an intelligent undervalue investor can find are as follows

1) ROE exceeding 15% pa
2) Growth exceeding 10% pa
3) Share Trading at 50 % below NTA
4) PE below 10x
5) Dividend yield exceeding 7% pa

This what Raider call an ideal napshot undervalue fundamental stock......!!!

To remain flexible in your stock selection......Raider allow change of the above combinations & criteria.....but always use as a benchmark loh....!!

A MODIFIED VERSION OF B GRAHAM......!!!

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-06-19 17:47 | Report Abuse

Raider,
Are you seriously trying with stupendous effort to conceptualize and express your thoughts and thinking process in English first?

Well I shall give you tremendous credits for doing so and will support you on your effort to do so. JUST DO IT LOH!! PRACTISE MAKES PERFECT LOH!!

KEEP IT UP RAIDER! I REALLY DO ENJOY READING AND UNDERSTANDING YOUR THOUGHTS AND IDEAS ON VALUE INVESTING LOH!!

YOU R TRULY A GEM LOH!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-19 17:55 | Report Abuse

WITH MORE THAN 20 YEARS OF RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT PLUS MKT STUDY & OBSERVATION WITH THE BEST ADVISE FROM SOME VELI SAVVY INVESTOR LIKE SENIOR ANALYST.......RAIDER FIND THE BEST INVESTMENT APPROACH IS :

JUST STICK TO :
1) BEN GRAHAM LOW PE, CASHFLOW YIELD, STRONG BALANCE SHEET, BIG DISCOUNT TO NTA AND GOOD DIVIDEND YIELD LOH...!!
2) STICK TO WHAT U KNOW LOH....OR THE BUSINESS U R IN MAH......!!!

THIS IS THE BEST THING U CAN DO FOR YOURSELF & YOUR FAMILY LOH.....!!

WHY LEH ?
THE ABOVE IS THE FOUNDATION OF MARGIN OF SAFETY MAH.....!!!

YES !! WITH MARGIN OF SAFETY PRINCIPLE U GOT A GOOD CHANCE TO FIGHT MR MARKET WHO ALWAYS TRY TO CON U MAH....!!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-19 17:58 | Report Abuse

NEWBIES PLEASE NOTE THIS GAMBLING FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLE

YES AS A SAVVY PUNTERS & GAMBLERS- U USE RAIDER'S ODDS MANAGEMENT, LUCK MANAGEMENT AND MONEY MANAGENT.....U CAN EVEN THE ODDS AGST THE BIG STRONG HOUSE LOH.....!!

BUT WHAT IF THE GAMBLERS KNOW CARDS COUNTING AS WELL ?
HE WILL BE MORE TERROR ISN'T ?

HOWEVER THE GAMBLING HOUSE KNOWING THIS OBVIOUS GAMBLERS ADVANTAGE..!!....TO CUSHION THE HOUSE DISADVANTAGE BY IMPOSING PLAYINGS CARDS WITH UPTO 7 DECKS...& PLAYING UPTO 75% OF THE CARDS ONLY LOH....!!!
THIS TECH COMPLETELY REMOVE THE SAVVY GAMBLERS CARD COUNTING ADVANTAGE LOH......!!

BUT ALL IS NOT LOST LOH.......!!!
CARD COUNTING ADVANTAGE CAN STILL USE IN OTHER FIELD, THAT ALLOW THE GAMBLERS TO MAKE MONIES.....!!!

RAIDER CALL THIS EVOLUTION OF CARD COUNTING ADVANTAGE LOH.....!!!

LESSON 7 TO BE CONTINUE......!!!
A VELI IMPORTANT LIFE REVISION.....THAT CHANGE YOUR INVESTMENT STRATEGY FOR THE BETTER....!!!

LESSON 7 CONTINUE....VELI VELI IMPORTANT FUNDAMENTAL LESSON.....NEWBIES NEED TO MASTER IN ORDER TO BE A GREAT INVESTOR, SPECULATORS, TRADER & GAMBLER LOH......!!!

PLEASE PAY ATTENTION LOH (RAIDER WOULD SAY U HAS MASTER AT LEAST 20% IMPORTANT SKILLS REQUIRED FOR CONSISTENT SUCCESS, IF U HAD MASTER THIS AREA WHICH RAIDER HIGHLIGHTED BELOW LOH :


What are the punters advantage over the house ?

1) They can manage luck.....!!
2)They can chose when to place their bets...!! (timing)
3) They can manage their monies the way they like....!!!

This means punter can indirectly even their disadvantage with the house loh....!!!

Yes u can manage luck....u can go to temple or tukang tilik before u place your bets loh.....! must improve your luck mah....!!
Timing.....preferably u only place your bets .....when the house is in the losing streak loh or u r in the lucky streak mah.....!!!
U can bet big , bet small or not at all......that means u control your bets & destiny loh.....!!!

Can u apply the same technique in your speculation & investment ?


PLEASE DO THE ABOVE EXCERCISE REGULARLY TO MAINTAIN YOUR TIP TOP GAMBLING FRAME OF MIND LOH.....!!!

LESSON WILL BE CONTINUE SOON.........!!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-19 18:01 | Report Abuse

COMMENT BY A LEARNED READER

Aiyoh belum habis lecture lagi?

My terminology sangat senang one.

1) Focus
2) know your limit
3) know your target
4) finally know your cut loss point.

Like in the movie Troy, Hector tell his brother, "Only focus on his sword and yours and nothing else". Same apply in stock market as you know your stocks and understand/predict every movement and nothing else.

Class dismiss.


RAIDER REPLY,

BOLEH PAKAI.!!! BOLEH PAKAI !!!...RAIDER CALL THIS BAZOOKA PLAY LOH....!!

TAPI IN WAR....YOU HAD MANY MANY WEAPONS IN YOUR ARSNEAL MAH....!!!

U GOT TANK, AIRCRAFT, SUBMARINE.....ETC....ETC......!!!
THATS WHY WARREN BUFFET GO TO COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY TO STUDY INVESTMENT FOR 3 YRS MAH....!!!

U THINK SO EASY MEH ??

TO BE A TRULY PANLAI INVESTOR AH Huh