Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 10:03 | Report Abuse

Just wonder u might not read the message in ur inbox.
So I decide to posting here and seek your opinion on Facbind.

NJR,
I am wondering why Facbind is not under your 40 snapshot holding...since you are support Graham Net Net....
Could appreciate your opinion/view on this stock.

Here is the brief of the Facbind:

As at 30/09/2013
*NTA: RM2.61
*Cash per share: RM1.75 (Minimum, in fact is more)
*Price now: Rm1.31
*Almost no borrowing

Future/Prospect/Background
*last 5 financial, 4 years loss money (reason is steel tubing segment losing very big).
*May this year company sold the losing steel tubing segment, and say bye to losing segment ever. Left those profit making segment.
*Coming FYE 2014 all core segment and China business are ALL profit making.
*Recent quarter result not that impressive, due to higher expenses on migrating operation. And now, the segment is fully migrate and starting its operation.
*90% sale is in USD, coming days USD will appreciate for sure.
*Properties are not revalue since 1991. NTA is actually higher

The most importantly, the company is now starting to generate profit (after sold lose making segment) + RM149mil cash in bank (min RM1.75/share) + prospect to give higher yield dividend (retained earning at RM100mil)
~vs~
current price of RM1.31

Why Facbind was not form one of ur stockraider's 40 holding list???

Would appreciate your valuable comments/criticism.


RAIDER COMMENT,

ACTUALLY TO BR FAIR RAIDER HAD OVERLOOKED THIS COUNTER LOH....!!
RAIDER HAD MADE AMEND & RECENTLY & INCLUDED IN THE I3 NAPSHOT LIST AND STARTED ACCUMULATING ALSO MAH.....!!

THE ABOVE ANALYSIS IS PERFECT & SPOT ON LOH..!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 10:06 | Report Abuse

posted by wonder > Apr 24, 2014 10:08 PM | Report Abuse

Yes raider, its from investlah but i have stopped visiting investlah unless sometime just to see your latest picks!

For CLIQ, i think base on the short term deposit(comparable to their 90% obligation under liabilities) they have, they cannot refund the shareholders upto 0.67 per shares. Somemore not considering when warrant holder excersie at 0.50 per shares.

What about FACBIND raider? whats your comment on it



Posted by stockraider > Apr 24, 2014 11:16 PM | Report Abuse X

Wonder,

U r mistaken....based on raider computation....cash already Rm 0.675....btw warrant holder not entitle to this escrow account.
CLIQ holder entitle for interest as well on....top of principal...!!

Without QA....warrant holder cannot convert to CLIQ also....!!

FACB....tell...raider why it is so good....n raider will verify whether it is really napshot loh....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 10:07 | Report Abuse

An investment Dedicated to SPAC

Why worried about this QA story....naturally talk about QA wont never end
until sona or cliq completed the QA........and it has to come sooner or later...I dont think sona/cliq will throw that Rm 350M to RM 500m into the drain......
-----
I agree. Just a matter of time. Anytime now.

THE ABOVE STATEMENT MAKE ALOT OF SENSE LOH....!!
BUT WHICH SPAC IS BETTER SONA OR CLIQ ?

RAIDER THINK CLIQ is better BCOS IT IS BELOW THE CASH LEVEL OF RM 0.675...LOH!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 10:10 | Report Abuse

a) AZRB-OR habis cerita.....now is to subscribe for the rights with warrants
b) Bp plastic ....actually playing on dividend yield....a long term investment. It is a defensive approach.
c) FPI play on dividend & strong balance sheet....corporate development....ACER subsidiary bought a big holding. Also huge dividend from ASSOCIATE and disposal of business to Datasonic. With so much positive development.....very difficult share price cannot move up for profit opportunity loh...!!
d) Hexza defensive margin of safety investment with strong balance sheet and good dividend yield payout mah....!!
e) Bright Packaging....play on high margin and a stable business industry.
f) PPG pure dividend play, low PE and high NTA exposure couple with strong balance sheet mah....!!
g) CLIQ....actually a defensive speculative play....with minimum downside cash cover of Rm 0.675. Very good play when market become more & more speculative loh....!!

IF U LOOK AT RAIDER PICKING....NOT ALL WILL SHOW PROFIT IMMEDIATELY LOH....!!
IN FACT U SHOULD NOT EXPECT OR HAVE THE MENTALITY TO MAKE IMMEDIATE PROFIT AFTER U BUY....!!
GIVE SOME TIME BE PATIENT....LET THE STOCK....SLOWLY GET RERATED...!!
SLOWLY ACCUMULATE....AFTER U HAD ZERO DOWN ON YOUR TARGET STOCK....!!

MAKE SURE THE STOCK GOT MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH....!!
GIVE THE REASON WHY U BUY THE STOCK LOH.....!!
SO WHEN THING CHANGE....U CAN REVIEW YOUR POSITION EASILY LOH...!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 10:32 | Report Abuse

About KFIMA, any worries about it giving 52% of its earning to the minority interest?
What is biological expenses in the cash flow? why it has been so high every year

Fima corp is a subsidiary company of Kumpulan Fima. In accordance to the rules of accounting, Kfima can "consolidate" Fima's financial statements into its own. This means every items of both these companies are added up and appears in Kfima's FS.

So you can see not all assets and income belongs to Kfima in its FS. At the end, those belong to the "minority interest", ie other shareholders of Fima Corp has to be netted out from Kfima' FS. The amount is not 52%, but 26% for last FY.

So the important thing is if you are a shareholder of Kfima, you should be concern of the assets and profit attributed to the common shareholders of Kfima. No worries about the minority interest.

One of the major business of Kfima is palm oil plantation. All expenses on palm oil trees are biological expenses. Expenses on animals are also biological expenses. It is high because huge amount is required for this major business.

RAIDER JUST ONE TO ADD ON KC POSTING.
KFIMA COMPRISES OF

SECURITY PRINTING
PALM PLANTATION
BULKING
FOOD PROCESSING

FIMA CORP
SECURITY PRINTING
PALM PLANTATION

ADVANTAGE OF INVESTING IN FIMA CORP ? NO ESOS....!!

ADVANTAGE INVESTING IN KFIMA ?....YOUR INTEREST IN LINE WITH MAJOR SHAREHOLDER MAH.....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 10:35 | Report Abuse

RAIDER ALSO LIKE AZRB....IT IS ONE OF THE LAGGARD STOCK IN RAIDER'S NAPSHOT 40 PORTFOLIO LOH....!!

WHAT IS SO GOOD OF AZRB ?

1) LARGE ORDER BOOKS RELATIVE TO ITS SHARE MARKET CAP
2) GOOD STEADY RETURN FROM OIL & GAS BUSINESS
3) GOOD EXPOSURE TO PLANTATION.
4) STEADY FIXED RETURN ON RENTAL OF HOSPITAL AND UNIVERSITY TO THE GOVT.
5) EKVE HIGHWAY CONCESSION....BTW THIS IS ONE OF THE LONGEST CONCESSION...THE OTHER IS WEST COAST HIGHWAY.

AZRB...IS A POTENT....BIG RETURN FORMULA....!!
A SMALL CAP....BIG PROSPECT = BIG POTENTIAL RETURN GOING FWD

AT THE CURRENT PRICE OF RM O.795 THERE IS ALOT OF UPSIDE OPPORTUNITY FOR AZEB.

INVESTOR JUST NEED TO BE LITTLE BIT PATIENT & WAIT FOR THE POTENTIAL COMING HARVEST .

RAIDER STILL BELIEVE SMALL CAP WITH BIG POTENTIAL = POTENTIAL FOR HUGE PROFITABLE OPPORTUNITY.....SO DON MISS THIS OPPORTUNITY LOH..!!

Posted by sephiroth > 2014-04-28 10:37 | Report Abuse

raider, how do u see Ulicorp?

Posted by splendid_ignorance > 2014-04-28 11:57 | Report Abuse

some news of interest perhaps, raider?

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/04/28/Norges-builds-up-portfolio-Norwegian-fund-nibbling-at-small-and-mid-caps/

they are holding some stake in cliq and sona

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 17:37 | Report Abuse

Wonder,

Just look at cash at Escrow account Rm 319M
Share Issue for listing Purpose Rm 484M

Therefore cash per share for CLIQ = Rm 0.659 per share as at 30-6-2013.
The cash as at now should be around Rm 0.675 loh....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 17:43 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 22:47 | Report Abuse

TIPS ON HOW TO USE RAIDER NAPSHOT 40 INVESTMENT GUIDE:

1) ALL THE STOCKS LISTED IN RAIDER'S NAPSHOT INVESTMENT GUIDE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO APPRECIATE MINIMUM 100%.SO IF ANY STOCKS THAT DID NOT APPRECIATE 100%, IT IS UNDERVALUE LOH......!!

2) SO IF U SELECT STOCK UNDER RAIDER 40 NAPSHOT GUIDE, IF THE APPRECIATION IS SAY 20% IT IS UNDERVALUE.......THAT MEANS IT IS UNDERVALUE..!!!......U NEED NOT ASK RAIDER WHAT IS THE TARGET PRICE IF THE GAIN IS NOT ABOVE 100% MAH

3) IN THE CASE WHERE THE STOCK APPRECIATE 100% AND STILL KEPT INSIDE RAIDER NAPSHOT 40 PORTFOLIO......THEN OUT OF CURIOUSITY......U CAN ASK RAIDER WHAT IS THE TARGET PRICE LOH.......!!

4) U R ENCOURAGE TO ANALYSE RAIDER NAPSHOT 40, IF U DISAGREE OR FIND ANY NEGATIVE POINT U R WELCOME TO BRING IT OUT TO RAIDER FOR DISCUSSION. IN THIS WAY WILL ALLOW MAXIMUM LEARNING LOH........!!!

5) WHY RAIDER HAVE NAPSHOT 40?
THE LISTED STOCK IN BURSA EXCEED 3000.....RAIDER & GANG HAD ANALYSE & DISSECTED THE STOCK LIST OF 3000.....AND COME UP.....WITH ABOUT 100 STOCKS WITH GREAT MARGIN OF SAFETY & POTENTIAL.....OF THIS 100 STOCKS......RAIDER HAS SELECTED 40.......AS NAPSHOT 40 PORTFOLIO LOH.....!! THE BALANCE OF 60 STOCKS ARE KEPT BY SENIOR ANALYST LOH....!! FAIR MAH......MOST OF THE ANALYTICAL WORK ARE DONE BY SENIOR ANALYST AND RAIDER SUPPLEMENTED BY GETTING 009 INVESTIGATION HELP PLUS ADVICE FOR TUKANG TILIK LOH......!!!
SO NAPSHOT 40 PORTFOLIO FAIR LOH....ESPECIALLY FOR INVESTLAH MEMBERS....IF RAIDER GO FOR NAPSHOT 100....SURE GOT ALOT OF COMPLAINS MAH......!!

6) FOR BEGINNERS OR PEOPLE WHO ARE LAZY TO DO TOO MUCH WORK SCREENING 3000 STOCKS.....U CAN ALWAYS SAVE TIME, BY GOING THRU RAIDER'S NAPSHOT 40 1ST......BCOS THIS ARE REALLY GREAT INVESTMENT STOCK SCREENED BY RAIDER'S INTELLIGENT TEAM LOH.....!! PLUS RAIDER ARE HERE TO ANSWER ANY QUERIES.....BUT U MUST DO YOUR HOMEWORK 1ST LOH.....!! DON SIMPLY ASK RAIDER TARGET PRICE, IF THE PRICE HAD YET TO APPRECIATE 100% LOH.

7) RAIDER'S TARGET IS TO HAVE AT LEAST 4 STOCKS IN NAPSHOT 40 PORTFOLIO APPRECIATING ABOVE 300% THIS YR LOH...!! THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE LOH......!!

Cool OCASSIONALLY, RAIDER MAY SELL...BUT SELDOM LOH!! EVEN, IF IT DID NOT APPRECIATE 100% BCOS THE PROSPECT MAY HAVE DETERIORATE AND MOST OF THE TIME OR THE BUSINESS MAY HAVE DIVERSIFY INTO AREA, WHICH RAIDER DON LIKE OR IT COULD BE THE GEARING TOO HIGH OR RAIDER JUST WANT TO SELL TO TAKE SOME PROFIT...!

9) RAIDER WILL ALWAYS GIVE U THE REASON WHY SELL...!! IF RAIDER FORGET TO TELL U ....!! U CAN ASK LOH.......!! U CAN CHOSE TO FOLLOW OR STAY LOH.....!!

10) FINALLY THIS THREAD, ALTHOUGH IS HERE TO HELP U TO MAKE MONIES, BUT THE PRIMARY OBJECTIVE IS TO HELP U TO LEARN LOH....!! ITS PRIMARY FOR EDUCATION & TRAINING LOH....!!

11) THIS EDUCATION TRAINING WILL BE HERE UNTIL 30-6-2014....BCOS RAIDER HAD BET WITH INVESTSMART......AEONCR RM 16.00 V EFORCE RM 0.36.......IF RAIDER LOSE.....MUST CLOSE SHOP.....TO HONOR RAIDER PROMISE MAH.....!!

12) MEANWHILE TRY TO LEARN AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE HERE LOH.....!!

Posted by kyosan > 2014-04-29 14:47 | Report Abuse

Bro raider,

currently i looking for defensive stock with below 0.50 .. i mean here company involve in utilities, food, which we still consume eventhought country in recession.. have u got any? i already add GUH..still need find other?EDEN another good candidate? =)

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-30 09:51 | Report Abuse

Kyosan,

Hard too find loh.....!!
Cheap does not mean got big margin of safety mah....!!

The one...I can think of maybe Pmcorp loh....!!
But the only thing...it does not pay dividend for a longtime.

If they start paying it would fly loh...!!

Posted by Beginnerzz > 2014-05-22 23:31 | Report Abuse

Hi raider, how about cresbld, gadang,SBC corp and GOV? can u analyse and tell me their target price respectively? Thx…

Posted by stockraider > 2014-05-28 14:23 | Report Abuse

Recently kfima....one of the stock under raider's napshot.....under selloff loh.....bcos of bad quarter loh.....!!

Should u sell ??
The answer is no loh.....!!
The bad quarter is just temporary loh...!!
It will recover mah.....!!

Based on valuation....it is ok....in fact undervalue loh....!!
The strategy is to accumulate slowly mah...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-05-29 09:30 | Report Abuse

Raider special advise to Perak Corp shareholder.
Accept the GO of Rm 3.90......no point fighting loh.....!!
Just look at the losses they have engineered on Perak Corp....do u want to hang around with people like that ?

Take their monies n Move on.....look for something else.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-05-29 09:56 | Report Abuse

What is the logic behind for price to go higher than RM2.20 seeing the fact that earning and eps are at its lowest in these 4 years ?

2013 PAT=59,353; eps=21.8; close=2.28(26May14)
2012 PAT=77,311; eps=28.9; close=2.20(30May13)
2011 PAT=80,864; eps=30.7; close=1.79(17May12)
2010 PAT=71,027; eps=26.99; close=1.60(26May11

Recently kfima....one of the stock under raider's napshot.....under selloff loh.....bcos of bad quarter loh.....!!

Should u sell ??
The answer is no loh.....!!
The bad quarter is just temporary loh...!!
It will recover mah.....!!

Based on valuation....it is ok....in fact undervalue loh....!!
The strategy is to accumulate slowly mah...!!

Let raider explain.....why u should hang around...your kfima gem....despite fall in profit ?

The answer is valuation loh !!.....Kfima Pe 11x compare with mkt 15-16Pe
Kfima dividend yield 3.7% pa compare with mkt 2.5 to 3.0%
kfima book value about 1x compare with mkt 1.7x....!!

Also kfima is sitting on Rm 200 million cash....certainly a company that have Rm 1.00 cash per share should be worth it mah ?

Posted by stockraider > 2014-05-30 00:11 | Report Abuse

nordimohd. everyone entitled to share here. Here is my opinion:
1) in your first posting today :
- you suggested that the company will "throw" shares having raised enough money from rights issue. I don't see how that will be possible. The company can't "throw" their shares like an ordinary investor. If any other major shareholders "throw" their shares I'm sure we will know about it from bursa announcement
- actually, if you sold before ex-rights at around 0.85, you might be better off if you subscribed to the rights and get the warrants
2) In your second posting :
- construction is a capital intensive business. It is quite normal for these companies - along with property companies - to have borrowings. In fact it is beneficial to have a healthy amount of debt given how capital intensive the business is
- don't forget the mess with the saudi project. they won the court proceedings so the compensation should be reflected in the accounts soon
- do you mean capital reduction or par value reduction. I believe it is par value reduction

I think the value of this company is in its huge orderbook. Not so much it's past performance. And at the end of the day people invest for future potential, of which I personally think AZRB has plenty of. And please be aware that in these companies, the earnings matter less than the potential earnings in the future (orderbook). Accounting principal dictates that the recognition of many projects will only be in the future but in reality the real money is already in the bag from the contracts.

THE ABOVE OPINION IS QUITE RIGHT LOH.....!!
U MUST VALUE THE COMPANY MAH.....!!

BESIDE LARGE ORDER BOOKS....AZRB ALSO INVOLVE WITH OIL & GAS WHICH IS DOING WELL, PLANTATION WHICH GIVE LONG TERM PROSPECT MAH....!!

MOST IMPORTANT....IS THE LATEST QTRLY RESULT HAS IMPROVE TOO...!!

THEREFORE AZRB IS A WORTHWHILE INVESTMENT....BCOS BAD NEWS HAS BEEN ANNOUNCE N BEHIND, POSITIVE NEWS IS COMING MAH....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-12 17:41 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Steven Yong > 2014-06-12 18:50 | Report Abuse

Stock raider, great stock picks. What do you think abt jobst? Takeover play.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-12 18:58 | Report Abuse

Raider not familiar with jobst...is the takeover already announce ?

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-06-12 19:24 | Report Abuse

Raider familiar with GPHAROS?
Stock is surging loh!
Entry Price@67 cents, now 95.5 cents +42.5% over 5 trading days loh

Posted by Steven Yong > 2014-06-12 19:44 | Report Abuse

hehe, you should keep an eye on her. Beautiful jobst. Just like a pornstar. Want to have sex with her...NO NO, even better than sex!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-06-14 16:23 | Report Abuse

Hexza announced a dividend of 10% on 24th October 2013. At the close of 77.5 sen this morning, the dividend yield amounts to 6.5%. This is twice the interest rate one can get from putting the money in fixed deposit in bank. Isn’t that good?

Hexza Corporation Berhad operates in three business segments: investment holding, which is engaged in investment holding activities; manufacturing, which is engaged in the manufacture and sales of formaldehyde based adhesives and resins for timber related industries, ethyl alcohol, natural vinegar, cooler, liquefied carbon dioxide and kaoliang wine.

Hexza has been in the business for a long time. Although there is not a single year of losses, there has been no growth in earnings for the last 12 years. However, the management has been generous to its shareholders with increasing dividend payment from 0.6 sen to the most recent 5 sen per share. Is this high dividend yield of 6.5% sustainable?

Referring to Hexza’s latest financial statements as at 30 June 2013, there is plenty of hard cash available. Free Cash Flow amounts to 20m, or 9.5 sen per share. It has an excess cash of 130m, or 65 sen per share in its balance sheet. Hence there is no problem at all for Hexza to continue paying good dividend in the future.

The liquidation value of Hexza is computed using the Graham net net is shown in Table 1 below:

Table 1: Graham net-net valuation of Hexza
Cash and cash equivalents 73,404 100% 73,404 0.37
Other investments 55,886 100% 55,886 0.28
Trade & other receivables 23,885 75% 17,914 0.09
Inventories 17,367 50% 8,684 0.04
Property, plant and equipment 66,959 50% 33,480 0.17
Other assets 3,295 0% xxxx xxxx
Total assets 240,796 xxxx 189,367 0.95
Non-Controlling Interests (6,876) 100% (6,876) (0.03)
TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES (20,421) 100% (20,421) (0.10)
Net assets 213,499 xxxx 162,070 xxxx
Number of shares 200,380 xxxx 200,380 xxxx
NAB 1.07 xxxx 0.809 0.809

The table above shows that the net asset backing (NAB) of Hexza is RM1.07. At this morning’s closing price of 77.5 sen, it is traded at a huge discount of 27% to its NAB. The net-net valuation of Hexza is shown to be 81 sen, which is still higher than its price.

Isn’t Hexza an undervalued stock as shown above? Wait until we perform some basic checks.

3 Basic Checks to Perform for a Net Net
For a net net to be investable, it should have
• a solid balance sheet, preferably more cash than inventories and receivables.
• is not bleeding cash. At least breaking even or positive in net profit.
• positive EBITDA

The first check shows that Hexza has most of its net-net assets in high quality assets in cash and cash equivalent amount to 65 sen per share. Hence we can safely confirm that the quality of the assets is excellent. Next to check is “Is it bleeding cash” and if it has positive Ebitda?

The latest annual financial results ended 30 June 2013 shows Hexza’s made a net profit of 8m and 4m, or EPS of 4.2sen and 3 sen respectively in 2013 and 2012. Cash flow from operations amounts to 20m with free cash flow of 18.7m last financial year. This FCF is a high of 15% (>10%) of revenue. Hence Hexza passes these checks with flying colours.

Conclusions
Hexza qualifies as Graham net net investment strategy with a wide margin of safety. It can also stand on its own as a value investment stock as a going concern with the high dividend yield investing strategy.

RAIDER COMMENT,
THE ABOVE IS A FINE ANALYSIS OF HEXZA BY AYAM TUA....WITH A VERY STRONG CASHFLOW AND HUGE NET CASH HOLDING IN THE BALANCE SHEET.

GOING FWD....NO PROBLEM OF HEXZA SUSTAINING THE DIVIDEND PAYOUT OF RM 0.04 TO RM 0.05 PER SHARE GIVING A DIVIDEND YIELD OF 6% TO 7% PA.....FOR DEFENSIVE INVESTOR.....SHOULD USE HEXZA IS ONE OF ITS CORE PORTFOLIO.

THE COMPANY HAVE GOOD CORPORATE GOVERNANCE....THAT MEANS....YOUR MONEY IS WELL SECURED....AND U WON'T BE CHEATED MAH.....!!

AT RM O.73 IS A GOOD BUY.....!!

Posted by AyamTua > 2014-06-15 01:48 | Report Abuse

Hexza, NTPM, Kuchai etc - all power defensive stocks. i love you, raider!
many kisses,
AT.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-08-21 22:26 | Report Abuse

WHEN TO SELL ANALYSIS OF KC CHONG APPROACH, ENCLOSED HEREWITH KC'S TECHNIQUE:

So why didn’t I walk the talk and keep all the stocks for long term? I think it may be an interesting topic for discussion here.

Outlined below are generally the reasons why I may sell the stock I own:

1. When I realize I am wrong in my appraisal. RAIDER COMMENT IS SELL IMMEDIATELY IF U REALIZED U MAKE A MISTAKE.
2. When the price reaches my appraised intrinsic value. RAIDER THINK U CAN SELL. BUT NO NEED TO SELL URGENTLY. SLOWLY DISPOSE LOH...!!
3. When too many people agree with my appraisal. TOO MANY PEOPLE AGREE WITH U.... DOES NOT MEAN THEY ARE WRONG. U NEED TO CHECK WHETHER THE STOCK IS OVERVALUE LOH. ONLY IF THE STOCK IS OVERVALUE & MANY PEOPLE AGREE IS A GOOD BUY.....U SHOULD START SELLING .
4. When the fundamentals of the company has significantly changed. IF FUNDAMENTAL HAS DETERIORATE CAN START DISPOSING.
5. Change of management or deterioration of management decision. MANAGEMENT DETERIORATE SHOULD SELL IMMEDIATELY.
6. Competitions creep in and there is significant deteriorating operating numbers, CAN START DISPOSING.
7. When we have identified better uses of our capital. SLOWLY DISPOSE....BUT B4 U DISPOSE....PLEASE CHECK WHETHER U REALLY NEED TO FUND THE NEW PURCHASE WITH DISPOSAL OF THIS STOCK ? OR U JUST WANT TO DISPOSE TO TAKE PROFIT ? IF U DISPOSE TO TAKE PROFIT, THEN THIS IS NOT THE RIGHT APPROACH LOH....!!

8. FINALLY RAIDER LIKE TO ADD LOH.....GENERALLY NEVER NEVER....DISPOSE THE STOCK ONE SHOT....DISPOSE SLOWLY N PARTIALLY MAH. ONLY DISPOSE QUICKLY & URGENTLY WHEN....1), 4) & 5) SCENARIO HAPPEN !!

REMEMBER THIS.....SELLING OF STOCK IS AS IMPORTANT AS BUYING STOCK LOH...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-08-21 22:48 | Report Abuse

I have started reading a book titled “100 to 1 in the Stock Market”, in which the author Thomas Phelps talks about how investors can make more of their investment opportunities.

The book starts with a story of five poor Arabs who are woken up one night by an angel.

“Each of you can have one wish,” the angel says.

“Give me a donkey,” asks the first Arab, and he is granted his wish.

Thinking how little the first Arab asked, the second one asks for ten donkeys and gets them.

The third asks for even more – a caravan with a hundred camels, a hundred donkeys, tents, rugs, food, wine, and servants – and gets them from the angel.
The fourth Arab, who had heard the previous three’s wishes, asks for even more. “Make me a king,” he commands the angel who bestows him with a kingdom.
Now, the fifth Arab, having seen his companions ask for too little, resolves to make no such mistake.
“Make me Allah,” he orders the angel.
In a flash, he finds himself naked on the sand, covered with leprous sores.

The moral of this story, as Phelps suggests, is that those of us who ask little of life get little. Those who ask much get much. Those who ask too much get nothing.

“But strange as it may seem,” Phelps writes, “human greed being what it is, most of us make the mistake of asking for one donkey. Few ask too much.”

This stands so true when it comes to investing in the stock market.

An investor, in general, would rather sell a stock after it has gained 20-30% to avoid the regret of losing these gains. He rarely thinks he has a chance to make a fortune out of his stock market investments.

So the idea is to make a quick 20-30% return on a stock, sell it, and get onto another quick riser.
This very investor, when he sees a few others build wealth from the stock market, would soothe his ego by accusing them of having “insider information” or being “plain lucky”.

He would also say, “These success stories are now history. No one can do it now.”
Even when fate puts a great idea in this investor’s hands (or let me say, in his portfolio), he tends to throw it away.

“You’ll never go broke taking a profit” is the mantra he lives by.

But then, as Phelps writes and later proves in his book…
Fortunes are made by buying right and holding on.

Yes, that’s the secret!
Your broker won’t tell you this because his business would close down if you just buy right and sit tight.

You will also not hear this on business channels whose ultimate aim is to make their anchors and guests appear smart because that is what gets them the highest TRPs.
But this simple secret – buy right and hold on – is there for the taking for ages.

“Buy a business, don’t rent stocks,” Warren Buffett has been advising for years. And then he adds, “An investor should ordinarily hold a small piece of an outstanding business with the same tenacity that an owner would exhibit if he owned all of that business.”

If you seriously want to build wealth from the stock market over the long run, take this advice from Phelps to your heart – Buy right and hold on.
Or, after having bought a quality business for your portfolio, remember what the former American president Ronald Reagan once said – “Don’t just do something, stand there!”

Phelps concludes the first chapter of his book with this powerful thought from George F. Baker…
To make money in stocks you must have “the vision to see them, the courage to buy them and the patience to hold them.”
Patience is the rarest of the three, but it pays off in the long run.
That’s how fortunes are made in the stock market.

RAIDER LIKE TO ADD....U CAN EITHER BUY QUALITY GROWTH STOCK AT A REASONABLE & AT NOT OVERVALUE PRICE AND HOLD ON IT TIGHT FOR LONG TERM

OR U BUY INTO HUGE UNDERVALUATION OF STOCK AND HOLD ON IT TIGHT UNTIL IT REACH ITS TRUE POTENTIAL LOH....!!

IT NOT EASY TO MAKE ONE SINGLE BETS.

RAIDER RECOMMEND U INVEST IN A SERIES OF 10 TO 20 STOCKS AND HOLD TIGHT BASED ON CRITERIA MENTIONED ABOVE.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-08-22 22:38 | Report Abuse

One of the biggest mistakes people made when they first started investing was not treating stock investing like a business. Instead they look at the stock market as a place where quick sum of money are made in a short time. In short, the stock market to them is a casino. Others, just as gullible followed the advice of the broker, their friends, or articles they pick up in money magazines. These people truly did not have a clue what investing was all about. But as years passed and they either lost money or made very little then they realized that they had to get serious.

How To Treat Stock Investing Like A Business

Most of those people who succeeded decided early on to treat stock investing like a business. Here are 7 tips you can use to turn the corner in your stock investing by treating stocks as if it was a real business.

1) A Business Plan

In every business you start with a business plan. A business plan will guide you as to what you want to do in the business. Do you want to invest or trade in the stock market? What products (stocks) you want to purchase and sell later? How much capital do you want to employ? How much risk do you want to take? These are some important questions to ask and decide in a business plan. A business plan draw up correctly will help you save lots of time and money in the running of the business.

2) The Products

Every successful business always have good products. The products are good enough to attract a steady stream of buyers everyday of their life cycle. What are good products in the stock market? They are the fundamental strong big companies with high cash flows listed in the stock market. The bad products are all the penny and speculative stocks who continuously lose money or at best making insignificant profits. But the insiders make them appealing by coming out with wild juicy stories. Do you want a good product in your business or remain forever an individual player inside a casino? The choice is yours.

3) Steady Cash Flow

Every business who are around owe their existence to their cash flows the business generates. In the stock market, things are the same. There must be steady cash flows to continue. What stocks can give you steady cash flows? The only source of steady cash flows in the stock market are dividend stocks. They continue to pay steady streams of cash flow in the form of dividends no matter the share prices are flat or down. As a business owner, you should have a big portion of capital into stocks paying a dividend.

4) Reviewing The Inventories

A good businessman will always review his list of inventories. Inventories that are not performing get sold off quickly and new stocks added to the list. The same will happen in the stock investing business. A review to analyse what the performing and non-performing stocks and selling off bad stocks and finding new ones to add to the list.

5) Keep Costs Low

A wonderful business tend to be also a low cost producer. They use technology to keep their overheads low and increase the cost of sales (profit margin) of their products. The easy step to lower your cost is to reduce trading. Increasing your trading does not guarantee a profit on the stock but what is guaranteed is for each trade you make you have to pay a cost in the form of a commission to the broker.

Another way to lower costs will be to signup for online trading. Online trading is very user friendly today and can lower your commission costs between 30%-50%. So, keep business costs lower by reducing trading and using online trading as much as possible.

6) There Must Be A Profit

In order for the business to be viable there must be a profit. That means that you could no longer take losses like an individual. An individual does not account for his losses. It meant that you have to look for ways to reduce your risks. It meant that you could no longer speculate as your heart desire in the stock market. As a business owner, you realise that taking massive losses, huge risks and excessive speculation could ruin your business for good.

7) Ongoing Learning

Ongoing learning is all about staying ahead of the curve and beating up the competitors. In the stock market, ongoing learning means taking time and forking out money to attend seminars, reading materials and socialising around with more experienced and knowledgeable people to improve your stock investing. Of course, you should only seek out knowledge and skills that can add value to the business, AND not market rumours and tips.

Conclusion

In order to be consistently successful you need to take a completely different approach to stock investing. The first step is always to learn what made you lose in the stock market. When you start asking yourself this question and act on this later, you will begin to turn the corner in your investing.

But the real key to success is to treating stock investing seriously like a real business. Most of those people who succeeded decided early on to treat stock

Posted by stockraider > 2014-08-22 22:43 | Report Abuse

RAIDER TO ADD TO THE ABOVE LOH.....!!
YOUR BUSINESS IS LOOK INTO A SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS MODEL.
TO REPLICATE & GROW THE BUSINESS WITH MINIMUM RISK WITH SUSTAINABLE CASHFLOW & RETURN LOH.....!!

IF THE BUSINESS MODEL CAN DO THAT, U DEFINITELY CAN BE SUCCESSFUL & GROW YOUR WEALTH LOH......!!

Posted by stkoay > 2014-08-22 22:50 | Report Abuse

stockraider. What's your comments on this stock (KSL)?
Is it still safe to buy at this level?
Appreciate your comment. Thanks.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/staticfile/245124.jsp

Posted by stockraider > 2014-08-22 22:53 | Report Abuse

I THINK OVERVALUE.
ALSO JOHOR PROSPECT NOT SO GOOD...U KNOW LAH THE TOLL ISSUE, FOREIGN CAR ENTRY PERMIT.....ETC WILL AFFECT CONFIDENCE.

ALSO PROPERTY IN ISKANDAR OVERBUILT.

Posted by stkoay > 2014-08-22 22:54 | Report Abuse

Noted. thanks.

Posted by Up_down > 2014-08-23 00:39 | Report Abuse

Good one . Raider is back to share his knowledge and experience . Thanks.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-08-23 19:38 | Report Abuse

SURVIVING STOCKMARKET SELLOFF

The local stock market has put a happy smile on many people’s faces since the last big drop back in 2008. But now, if you go online to any stock market website or see CNBC today, you will hear some people talking about a stock market correction. What is a stock market correction and how do you survive a stock market correction? Read on for all these answers and more.

What Is A Stock Market Correction?

A stock market correction is when the stock market main index (the KLCI Index) drops by 10 to 20%. Throughout our short market history, stock market corrections happen fairly often. It is something to expect which relate to the stock market investing cycle.
Some influential people decided that the profits were too good to refuse and took money off the table. Some research reports that stock market corrections are to be expected every 2-3 years on average.

The most recent stock market correction was back in 2013, during the few months leading to GE13. If you remember that occasion, the stock market was very volatile. One day it was up a couple of points, then it was down 30+ points the next day. It was a crazy time.

RAIDER COMMENT STOCKMARKET CORRECTION WILL HIT EVERY STOCK. BUT THOSE UNDERVALUE STOCK WILL CORRECT LESS & RECOVER BETTER.

How To Survive A Stock Market Correction

If you agree with me that corrections are part and parcel of the stock market investing cycle and happen fairly often, the next step is to be prepared for it when it does come around. Here are a handful of tips to survive a correction and come out from it with most of the eggs intact.

YES CORRECTION IS THE ACTION OF MR MARKET. A SAVVY INVESTOR SHOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF MR MARKET BOOM & GLOOM ACTION

Always Take Profits From The Stock Market

This is the most sensible thing to do in the stock market, period. When the price of your shares hit the profit target, sell and get out from the stock.
Buy and hold is good if the stock have not move. But if the stock move a lot in a short period of time, it is probably time to take some profits as it could be priced way above the intrinsic value.

SELL SOME BUT DON'T SELL ALL. UNLESS THE SHARE PRICE SHOOT WELL AHEAD OF THE STOCK VALUATION AT A FRENZY LEVEL.
AS LONG AS THERE IS MARGIN OF SAFETY U CAN ALWAYS HOLD ON SOME OF THE STOCKS.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-08-23 19:39 | Report Abuse

Cash Is Always King

As the stock market goes higher and higher, it is probably a good time to take profits on your stocks and go into more cash. Be smart and keep the cash intact. Don’t go chase after another stock using the available cash you have in hand.
Sometimes it is better to sit tight and do nothing. Wait until you see a real stock market correction before using the cash you stashed away for a rainy day.

CASH IS A TEMPORARY ASSETS.....IF U CAN FIND GOOD UNDERVALUE ASSETS WITH MARGIN OF SAFETY TO INVEST....IT IS OK TO HOLD CASH.
BUT PLEASE BEWARE....DON REPEAT THE MISTAKE OF ICAP......HOLDING CASH FOR TOO LONG.....HOPING MARKET TO CRASH SINCE 2008.
LOST OPPORTUNITY BEARING IN MIND INTEREST RATE ARE LOW.

USUALLY THERE IS SOME MARGIN OF SAFETY OPPORTUNITY BESIDE TOO MUCH CASH.

Keep An “Opportunity Fund”

If you like to explore this “cash is always king” idea further, why don’t you keep some money in an “Opportunity Fund” – this is a cash account that you funnel money into over time, allowing you to take advantage of opportunities when they present themselves to you.
If the market drops by 10%, you could take some of this money and put it in the market. There are many uses for an opportunity fund, so having one for a rainy day such as this is a good idea.

U CAN INVEST INTO QUASI CASH INSTRUMENT.....LIKE BONDS, TAKEOVER PLAY AND SPACS.

Don’t Put Everything In The Market

People tend to put more money into investments that they are getting good returns over time. This happens fairly often in the stock market, especially during an extended bull run such as what we are experiencing today. In the end, they have everything they own in the stock market. And, this could be a fatal mistake.
In fact, as the stock market goes higher, it is a wise move to slowly reduce your expose to the market until things look cheaper. To survive a stock market correction, you need to keep a good balance between what you have in the stock market with your other investments so that you can come out from it with most of your eggs intact.

RAIDER THINK KEEP 25% OF ASSETS IN NON EQUITY IS A PRUDENT STRATEGY, EVEN IF U R A SAVVY INVESTOR.

Drawing Up A Survival Plan

Everything starts with a plan. If you do not have a plan to prepare for a stock market correction, how are you going to be ready when it comes. But, with a plan in your hands, you will know why you are doing what you are doing and will be able to better survive a stock market correction.

AS A RAIDER MENTIONED EARLIER IF SHARE MARKET DROP 50% .....YOUR PORTFOLIO & WEALTH CAN SURVIVE.....THIS IS AN IMPORTANT CRITERIA

Conclusion

Are we due for a stock market correction? Maybe. The stock market bull is ageing. Will one happen, sure, but when no one knows. As a result, your best option is to be ready when it comes. This is how you be a successful investor in the stock market. Period.

Posted by moven00 > 2014-08-23 20:03 | Report Abuse

Dear Stockraider,

Can I learn from you.
How to follow your posting?

Can I keep in touch with you?
My email moven00@hotmail.com

Thank you

Posted by Up_down > 2014-08-25 13:36 | Report Abuse

Raider, the biggest bull in investlah, seems losing faith in the market. Watch out and get ready bullets to fight with bear later.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-08-25 18:38 | Report Abuse

Gambler Can Be An Investor

Author: Ben Gan | Publish date: Sun, 24 Aug 20:55 | >> Read article in Blog website





The beauty of the stock market is that you can either trade or invest. To make money by trading is much harder than to make money by investing. I wouldn't say you can't make money by trading. Actually you can, but you have to learn the skill first. So, unless you have the skill, do not trade.

To trade means to buy and sell shares with the intention and hope to make a profit within a few days to a few weeks.

Most of these traders generally do not make any research themselves. They buy and sell based on tips from friends, remisers and analyst recommendations in the media.

They are usually small players with small amount of capital. Most of them lose money. They lose money because they lack the necessary skill to trade intelligently. Their transaction cost is high because they can't get special rates. Their cost of fund is probably high as well because they probably play on margins and a bank loan.

With time constraint, high cost of transaction, high cost of fund, and a lack of knowledge, is there any wonder that the odds of winning are heavily against them?

When you place a bet with the odds against you, you are gambling. For example, when you go to bet in a casino, you are a gambler because the odds are against you.

Can a gambler be an investor? Yes, a gambler can be an investor.

Peter Lynch, a well-know and successful investor, puts it this way. He said, " A gamble is an investment if you can tilt the odds to favor you." So in this context, a professional trader or gambler can be called an investor. Whether you agree with him or not is up to you to decide.

A common mistake of traders, is that they take small profits and suffer big losses. When they have a winning stock, they sell when they have a small profit, but when they have a losing stock, they will hold until there is a big loss before selling. This is what we call, "Eating like a chicken, and pooping like an elephant."

You can't win without skill. So if you wish to trade, learn the skill first. If you know a winning trader, get close to him, and learn from him. If you know of none, then you have to self-taught and learn from experience.

Our present bull market is now well into its 6th year. It stared at the end of the bear market in March 2009.

If you can't make money in a bull market, obviously something is wrong with you. You need to revise your way of play completely to turn around.

You can't expect a different result if you have been doing the same thing again and again. You need to change; you need to find a better way to play the market. Otherwise, when the bears finally take over, your chance to make money is zero, and you are likely to suffer substantial losses.

Your need a license to drive, but you don't need any license to play in the market. Do you know why?

Simply because, your mistake in the stock market is somebody's gain. So, the more inexperience or unskillful you are, the more welcome you are.

Think well before you speculate in the stock market. Do not borrow money; speculate only what you can comfortably lose.

Better still, don't speculate at all. Just invest, invest and invest.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-10-23 14:46 | Report Abuse

Raider advise on latest corporate excercise;

1) OSK takeover OSKprop & PJD......by issuing OSK share at rm 2.00.
1.1) These share is issue without entitlement of Rm 0.15 special div & 1 for 4 Bonus warrant, thus effectively valuing OSK around Rm 2.36 for the existing OSK shareholders.

2) RHBcap take over of CIMB and MBSB......now with EPF cannot vote ?!.....most likely the corporate exercise may revise to more platable to Aabar......that will mean a value of Rm 11.80 .....for the deal to go through loh...!!
Alternative this deal may be call off.....giving opportunity for Maybank to come in.
2.1) Even the deal call off RHB shareholder still enjoy good value in view of other potential suitors loh....!!

What is there for OSK shareholder ?
A lock in return of min Rm 2.36 from ONG Leong Huat and potential higher rerating from RHB cap....giving a further upside of Rm 3.30 to Rm 3.80 loh....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:07 | Report Abuse

Posted by hanting999 > Feb 6, 2015 06:12 PM | Report Abuse

I do feel sorry for OSKP and PJD minority shareholders for the way OLH plays his hands in the proposed merging process of OSK/OSKP/PJD. OLH is a shrewd man and past events (concerning his attempted takeovers) had shown his shrewdness. In OSK's instance, please know that OSK minority shareholders are treated rather 'stingily'. I had in the past "kow pei, kow boo" about the way OLH treats his minority shareholders. {Low dividends, no substantial rewards from sale of OSKIB, offering of *-bits}. So, Mr. Ooi, how in the name of Ah Huat can anyone ask a stingy man to be generous? It is a joke to us that he offers RM1.60 for PJD. It is also a joke to him if we ask for RM2.40 for PJD and RM1.40 for PJD-WC even though the statistic of PJD support the demand.


Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > Feb 8, 2015 12:42 AM | Report Abuse

Someone twisted the story to change the devil to angel.
I do not want to waste my time to reply. Please talk with facts and figures.
Selling OSK Investment Bank at 18.9 times historical PER.
Selling OSK Investment Bank at 1.77 times Book value.
Buying PJDev at 3.1 times PER.
Buying PJDev at 0.59 Book Value.
According to MSWG, PJDev-WC worth 1.57, hence PJDev worth 2.57.
Someone said buying PJDev at 1.60 is an angel act. Full of *.
Justice will prevail, wasting my time to talk.
It is the last time I want to write on this subject. I close the case.

Posted by stockraider > Feb 8, 2015 11:56 AM | Report Abuse X

Let raider put u in a proper perspective loh :

1} The attempt to takeover of Osk prop & Pj Dev by exchanging with OSK holding share at Rm 2.00 cheap..!!
Why is OLH still want to do it, buy selling his properties company cheap to OSKH ?
The main reason is that he attempt to consolidate his position by increasing his shareholding in OSKH without paying a takeover premium for OSK holding loh....!! This is bcos OSK Holding worth at least Rm 3.20 to 3.70 based on sum of the parts & break out value loh...!!

2)Minority shareholder of PJD and OSKProp by right have no problem if they chose not to accept the OSKH offer if they think the offer undervalue its share loh....!!

3) The key victim is OSKH minority shareholder....as they are allowing OLH to dilute their osk share value by issuing new OSKH share to major shareholder at rm 2.00, when oskh share is value at Rm 3.20 to 3.70.

4) OLH knowing the problem....has come with a strategy to bribe the minority shareholder with his propose bonus warrant & special dividend to sweeten the deal loh....!!
Btw MR OLH is also a beneficiary to the above exercise too as he hold substantial OSKH which are also entitle to the bonus warrant & special dividend mah....!!

5) OLH is aided by stroke of good luck as the stockmarket is bearish....this has reduced opposition from minority shareholder...who can dent his ambitious merger as OLH cannot vote at OSKH level loh...!!

6) Minority shareholder knowing....OLH strategy....supported him...bcos they know....if they kill the deal....OSKH share price will not perform even it is value at Rm 3.20 to rm 3.70 if they do not submit to TAIKOR OLH mah....!! They minority shareholder just trade off between better share price for OSKH v better intrinsic value for OSKh loh....!!

7) The morale of the story....minority interest sometime ....need trade off between better share price v better share value. And OLH is the jockey of OLH....if he no try....osk share price would not go up mah!!

Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:11 | Report Abuse

FORMULA TIMING.

1. The more certain the investor is that the range of future fluctuations will duplicate the past, the more justified he is in concentrating his buying close to the bottom line of the market performance chart and his selling not much below the top line.

2. But since we lack any proof that the past range must determine that of the future, most of us will prefer a compromise formula by which buying and selling is done in various stages below and above the indicated median level.

3. So too, there is no assured advantage as between a plan to sell 100 per cent of our stock holdings by the time a designated high point is reached and a plan that assures retention of some stocks under all circumstances. (The latter in some measure protects against an inflationary breakout of a permanent character into a much higher band of fluctuation than we have experienced hitherto.)

Let's look at the possibilities and limitations of a policy of entering the market when it is depressed and selling out in the advanced stages of a boom.

This bright idea appeared feasible from a first inspection of the market chart covering the gyrations of the past fifty years.

But closer study indicated that no simple and fool-proof formula could be counted upon to work out in the future.

For example, the history of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average suggests that it should be possible to buy at 140 during the next few years and sell out at 280 later.

But this is only an indication and not a true prediction.

Nor can we tell whether the probability of its working out is good enough to justify the basing of an investment policy upon it.

Benjamin Graham
Intelligent Investor

3i comment,
I think the stock raider is very good at this game. He sold all his stocks before the last severed downturn, a month ago. He got in last week before the market rallies this week.

Raider comment,
Raider is no market timer loh......!!
If MR market overvalue u sell.....if mr market undervalue u buy mah....!! Cash Cash Cash Thumbs Up
This is the principle of margin

Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:12 | Report Abuse

I DON'T KNOW THE UNKNOWN.

Author: STOCKHACKER | Publish date: Thu, 5 Feb 2015, 11:30 PM

I don't know if we must believe in luck or else can we explain the success of those we don't like?

Recently, I mentioned about reversal, but I on don't know whether we will going to have inflation or deflation sooner. I don't know interest rates will rise or decrease in the near future. More significantly, I'd very carefully about trusting my ****** to any person or into an entity, except anything that is on a multi year bottom assets and technology sectors.

The complexity of the world-wide economy has been increased by monetary and fiscal government intervention everywhere. There is no historical example to which you can point and say what happened in the past and this time will just look like that.

1. Lower rates don't mean anything if borrowers can't obtain loans in the real world.
I don't know what really matters about interest rate issues. With the rate at historic lows, any increase in rates has a modest impact on qualified borrowers. If the half of percentage points kills the deal, it was a deal that should be killed anyway. Its too marginal to be a sound deal.
RAIDER COMMENT LOWER INTEREST RATES BETTER STOCKMARKET PRICE....BCOS RETURN RELATIVE TO INTEREST.

2. Liquidity is more important to all types of assets.
I am more worried about liquidity than the interest rates. What matters most is the financial system maintains sufficient liquidity, reasonably priced credits and availability of mortgage money. I don't know what is the consequences of lack of liquidity at this fragile moment compared to a small hike in interest rates .
LIQUIDITY SQUEEZE WILL KILL THE STOCKMARKET....NO LIQUIDITY MEANS MARKET MAY CRASH LOH...!!

3. If you believe stocks is cheap, stop reading this column.
Well, never mind number 3, but here is more, before I go further, if you believe that the stocks are cheap and the economy is doing well. Stop reading now.This column is not for you.
I don't know just when that will be. But if you believe that the most of the stocks, (except energy based assets) are expensive and economic time bomb are ticking because of unprecedented intervention by governments and central banks, then we share and give.
RAIDER COMMENT....STOCK IS CHEAP WHEN THERE IS HUGE MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH....!!

4. When was the last time every major economy is extremely over-stimulated?
It's incredibly difficult to sit on cash while everyone is making money around me. After all I don't know how much this steroid madden bull has left in him. Riding this bull is difficult because I don't know if the market is overvalued and if anyone holding a lot of overpriced assets (especially speculative stocks) then I have no other option but to hope greater fools will keep hopping on the bull and drive the stock prices higher.
IF EVERYBODY IS MAKING MONIES....ESPECIALLY THE UNINFORMED....THE HAIR STYLIST, THE TAXI DRIVER, THE FISH MONGER AND THE WAITER.....U BETTER CABUT KUAT KUAT.....BCOS MARKET IS OVERVALUED...!!

5. Dont look in the mirror.
More importantly, you have to believe that you are smarter than the other fools, and you know what will happen next, you will be able to hop off faster before them. Once more, I don't know how many able to manage this, good luck with that. After all, the one looking for another greater fool will eventually find that fool by looking at the mirror.
ALWAYS BASED INVESTMENT ON RATIONALITY....USE MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH....!!

6. If you insist, good luck.
The economy has been a never ending episodes of falsehoods and lies, not truths. Only if you insist you really know what will happen next, and you are not lying, then I accept that you know perfectly what the future holds.But don't look at the mirror.
It is unwise to be too sure about one's own intellectual ability. On another perspective, it's healthy to be reminded to be a little humble or a step further;
Then better pretend to say, " you don't know "

WHEN IN DOUBTS ALWAYS BE REACTIVE THAN ANTICIPATIVE LOH.....!!
IF REACTIVE ACTION SUPPOSE TO BE UP....BUT MARKET IS DOWN.....U BETTER BECAREFUL LOH...!!
IF REACTIVE ACTION SUPPOSE TO BE DOWN....BUT MARKET IS UP...IT IS MOST LIKELY MARKET SHORT TERM IS RECOVERING LOH....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:16 | Report Abuse

BELOW IS THE COMMENT BY 3I BUT THIS NOT THE REAL TEACHING OF B GRAHAM BUT ACTUALLY THE MODIFIED VERSION OF WARREN BUFFET......!!
HOW TO RECONCILE B GRAHAM V W BUFFET.....RAIDER WILL TRY HERE LOH....!!
PLEASE NOTE GRAHAM TEACHING IS IN CAPITAL LETTER LOH....!!

Keep Investing Simple and Safe

When is the best time to buy share?
Anytime really. ....YES ANYTIME WHEN THERE IS MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH...!!
You should track a list of high quality stocks...U SHOULD BUY STOCK WITH HUGE MARGIN OF SAFETY MAH..!
Buy when the stock is selling at a bargain price,
that is, when the risk of losing your capital is low or negligible and the return substantially higher. AGREED!
The good investors aim for high returns with minimal risk taking....AGREED....!

Is there a time when you should not be buying any stocks?

1. Generally, when the market is trading at a high valuation.
There is always another time to buy the stock. Be patient. WHEN U CANNOT BUY ANY MARGIN OF SAFETY STOCK!!


2. However, if you are not knowledgeable in stock selection (QVM) and money management,
you should not be investing directly in the stock market.
You are better buying a mutual fund when the market is trading at low valuation
or to park your fund with a personal fund manager.
The stock market is a dangerous place for the uninitiated. AGREED....BUT THE DEFENSIVE CAN BUY HIGH YIELD BONDS WITH MARGIN OF SAFETY ALSO LOH....!!

3. Avoid investing money in the stock if the money you invested may be needed urgently anytime or in a short time.
Investing in the market should be for the longer term.
There is too much uncertainties in the returns over a short time frame. YES INVEST BASED ON AT LEAST 3 YRS TIME FRAME MAH.....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:16 | Report Abuse

Is now a good time to buy stocks?

Anytime is a good time to buy stock. AS LONG AS CAN BUY WITH MARGIN OF SAFETY...!!

Rather than timing the market, one should buy or sell base on the price of the stock offered by the market.
Even in the peak of the bull market, one can pick up some bargains.
Of course, in the depth of a bear market, there are many good stocks selling at very low prices. USE THE PRINCIPLE OF MR MARKET.....BUY LOW & SELL HIGH ALWAYS!!

Is buy and hold, a safe strategy?

The recent severe downturn in the market brought this strategy into question once again.
It is very safe for those who employs this strategy using certain criterias. It is safe for selected stocks.
These stocks should be of the highest quality (QVM). These stocks should be bought at a bargain price with a margin of safety.
The only time you may have to sell the stock urgently is when there is a fundamental deterioration in the business of the company. Other than this, you have the leisure of selling.
BUY PROFITABLE HUGE MARGIN OF SAFETY STOCK WITH STRONG BALANCE SHEET & DIVIDEND PAYING & HOLD LONGER TERM, IS THE BEST STRATEGY OF MAKING MONIES.
U ONLY SELL WHEN MR MARKET OFFER A PRICE ABOVE MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH....!!

The market is cyclical. The bull-bear-bull-bear cycles ensure that the bull will always follows a bear and vice-versa.
Here are a selection of Malaysian stocks that have stood the test of time over at least 3 severe bear markets:
Nestle, DLady, Petdag, Guinness, Petgas, PBB, PPB, Resorts. THESE STOCKS ARE USUALLY OVER VALUED OR FAIRLY VALUE MOST OF TIME.
BUY NEGLECTED, NOT WELL KNOWN BUT PROFITABLE SECONDARY & PENNY STOCKS WHICH HAVE STRONG BALANCE SHEET & DIVIDEND PAYING LOH......!!

There are also others too.
At certain short period of time, each of these stocks may underperform
but if assessed over a longer period of time, the returns have ALL been positive.
By minimising the downside and aiming only for modest returns,
investing can be surprisingly rewarding for a large number of investors and with little effort.
WITH HUGE MARGIN OF SAFETY U MINIMISE THE DOWNSIDE & MAXIMISE THE RETURN MAH....!!

How to maximise returns?

1. First, ensure that there is safety of your capital. Remember not to lose your capital.
By ensuring that you do not lose money and aiming for moderate returns, you can maximise total returns too with low risk.
Don't be greedy for high returns by taking unnecessarily high risks. AGRRED

2. Stick to the few high quality stocks you are familiar with. This is the circle of competence mentioned by Buffett.
Stay within your circle of competence and never, never, never, never, get out of this circle.
If your circle of competence is only 6 stocks, stick to these 6 stocks. ALWAYS GO FOR UNKNOWN & NEGLECTED PROFITABLE SECONDARY & PENNY STOCKS WITH STRONG BALANCE SHEET & DIVIDEND PAYING LOH....!!
YOUR CIRCLE OF COMPETENCE IS ALWAYS MARGIN OF SAFETY & VALUATION OF STOCKS LOH.....!!
DIVERSIFY AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE....IF U FIND MANY OR MORE THAN 100 DIFFERENT STOCKS THAT SATISFY YOUR CRITERIA THAN U R ENCOURAGE TO BUY ALL THE 100 STOCKS MAH.....!!
THE MORE U DIVERSIFY....THE HIGHER CHANCE OF SUCCESS LOH....!! JUST LIKE THE ACTUARY LOH....!!

3. Only buy high quality stocks at bargain price.
At a certain price, the stock is a bargain and at another price, it is trading at a fair price.
Never, never, never buy these high quality stocks when it is trading at high price.
By buying these good quality stocks at a bargain price,
one is buying with a margin of safety to minimise loss to your capital in the event you got it wrong.
At the same time, if the event turned out to be as you expected, your return will be greater.
U CAN BUY ANY STOCKS.....SO LONG IT HAVE HUGE MARGIN OF SAFETY & SATISFY YOUR INVESTMENT CRITERIA LOH!!

4. Also do not over-diversify.
According to Buffett, adding the 7th stock into your portfolio reduces the overall return of your portfolio.
Bet big if you are very certain of your selection. ALWAYS DIVERSIFY, THE MORE THE MERRIER LOH....!! AMPLE MARGIN OF SAFETY STOCK AVAILABLE.....AGAIN MEANS MARKET UNDERVALUE LOH.....!! THEREFORE LESS RISKY MAH...!!

5. Allow the wonder of compounding to grow your return over a long period of time. U MAY COMPOUND LOH...!! BUT IF IT IS OVERVALUE SELL....BUY ANOTHER MARGIN OF SAFETY STOCK.....BUT REPEATING U R IN FACT COMPOUNDING TOO LOH..!!

Investing can be very safe. Keep it simple and safe. (K.I.S.S.) REMEMBER MARGIN OF SAFETY & THE PRINCIPLE OF MR MARKET!!

Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:19 | Report Abuse

Quote:

I am somewhat sceptical of anyone talking about value stock investing at the current valuations as I feel they are just below all time historical highs and have quite a bit of downside before they can called value stocks in the historical sense. CLASSICAL GRAHAM IS LOW PE & HIGH DIVIDEND YIELD BCOS IT GIVE U HIGH IMMEDIATE RETURN ABOVE THE ACCEPTABLE HURDLE RATE

The commonly used term "value stocks" has little to do with value investing. Academics describe value stocks as stocks with low PE or low price to book. That's not even close to true. Buffett paid an above market PE for Coke when he bought it, and with a large price to book. THE INVESTMENT IN COKE HERE IS ACTUALLY GROWTH INVESTMENT. THERE IS AN ELEMENT OF SPECULATING IN THE GROWTH RATE....TO JUSTIFY OVER PAYING CURRENT IN ANTICIPATING THE FUTURE GROWTH RATE WILL CATCH UP OR EXCEED THE VALUATION LOH....!!

Value investing simply means every stock has an intrinsic value (IV) separate from it's price. Value investors try to buy stocks trading at a discount to their intrinsic value. Some stocks are bad "value stocks" because they are either over priced, or their IV is difficult to estimate. But at the right price, any stock is a value stock. VALUE INVESTMENT CAN BE BASED ON BREAK UP VALUE OR LIQUIDATION VALUE, BOND LIKE VALUATION BASED ON PE & DIVIDEND YIELD OR BASED ON GROWTH INVESTING LOH.....!!
ACTUALLY THE TRADITIONAL VALUE INVESTING IS ITEM 1 & 2 WHEREAS 3 HAS AN ELEMENT OF SPECULATION LOH...!!


And the fact that the market has reached a historical high recently is neither evidence stocks are over-valued or under-valued. Their true value is based on the discounted value of their future stream of earnings. The Dow recently hit a peak it hand't seen for over 5 years. I don't know if at that price the Dow is fairly valued or not, but I am certain it is much more valuable than it was 5 years ago, simply because it's earnings are higher. ACADEMICALLY THE DCF IS THE BEST WAY OF VALUATION BY FORECASTING CASHFLOW & ASSIGNING GROWTH & CATCH FLOW IS VERY TRICKY & MAY LEAD TO VARIOUS OUTCOME AS THERE ARE HIGH ELEMENT OF SPECULATION LOH....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:20 | Report Abuse

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At the end of the day, any of a hundred styles of investing will be profitable, if you utilize the proper risk and money managment, I personnally am just not comfortable with Grahams risk management, and cannot bring myself to trust other analysts of fundamental data, and am not capable of personally inspecting company's fundamentals to the degree necessary to make an intelligent judgement on thier fundamentals going forward. So I will let the market tell me what it thinks and follow the trend. IF U CANNOT TRUST GRAHAM MARGIN OF SAFETY INVESTMENT....THAT MEAN U R NOT REALLY A VALUE INVESTOR LOH....!!

You are welcome to invest in any manner you choose, but this is a thread about The Intelligent Advisor and how Ben Graham advises investing. I don't have time to address all of your comments, but I would say in your case, Ben would advise you to do virtually the opposite of everything you are doing right now. WHY B GRAHAM ASK U TO DO THE OPPOSITE...BY DOING A CONTRAIAN.....THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE U GET HUGE MARGIN OF SAFETY STOCK BCOS THESE UNLOVED & NEGLECTED STOCK MAH.....!!

And the worlds greatest investor, Warren Buffett, would heartily agree. Warren learned much from Ben Graham (his first investment management job was in Ben's firm) and has proven for fifty years through bull and bear markets, that the market eventually recognises value. And Buffett doesn't have an army working for him, in fact he doesn't employ a a single analyst, he does all his research by himself. Warren's market crushing performance also didn't come through taking excess volatility, his results have been much less volatile than the market. I think you misunderstand risk if you criticize Ben's risk management theories. W BUFFET HAS MODIFIED BGRAHAM...BCOS HE IS A MATHEMATICAL GENIUS & A GOOD BUSINESSMAN.....ORDINARY INVESTMENT SOUL SHOULD STICK TO B GRAHAM.....BCOS THIS IS THE BEST INVESTMENT MODEL FOR INVESTOR....!!

I advise you to pay close attention to Ben's parable of Mr. Market. It's the easiest way to describe how you should really think about volatility and true risk. If it doesn't cause you to jump up and say "Aha!", then Ben & Warren's approaches will likely never be for you. AGREED...!!

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The rate of return sought should be dependent, rather, on the amount of intelligent effort the investor is willing and able to bring to bear on the task... The maximum return would be realized by the alert and enterprising investor who exercises maximum intelligence and skill....THOSE WHO USED B GRAHAM WILL BE ABLE TO GET GOOD SUSTAINABLE RETURN

I think this statement at the beginning of Chapter 4, is very important. Graham is saying that the equation isn't...

Higher Risk = potentially Higher Return

But is rather...

More Time, Effort & Intelligence = potentially Higher Return.
OR VENTURE TO UNKNOWN, UNLOVED AND NEGLECTED = HIGHER RETURN

Over the course of your lifetime, this simple formula, can make a big difference!

Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:21 | Report Abuse

If you are dependant upon your portfolio for income, or unable to do investment research well, you should be a defensive investor. If you are super smart, it doesn't help if you don't have the time or inclination to do good research. And if you don't have much money at risk, it's not worth your time to do a lot of research. All are reasons to be a defensive investor.
WHAT IS DEFENSIVE INVESTMENT ? DEFENSIVE INVESTMENT IS STRATEGISE TO EXPOSE TOO LESS RISK & ERROR LOH...!!
IT IS TO AVOID UNFORCE ERROR LOH.....!!
IT IS A DELIBERATE SAFE PATH AS COMPROMISE TO ACHIEVE A SUSTAINABLE LOWER ACCEPTABLE RETURN LOH. TO AVOID RISK LOH....!!


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Do stop losses have any role in a passive investor's aresenal? It seems that stop losses will almost guarantee that you buy high and sell low.
Ben wouldn't recommend them, for the reasons you cite. If you believe a stock has an a true ("intrinsic") value, you will try to buy it below that level (when it's "cheap"). So why sell if it gets even cheaper?
SINCE U ARE A PASSIVE INVESTOR....U MAY NOT NEED STOP LOH....!!
BUT SOME PEOPLE THINK STOP IS AN INSURANCE POLICY......AS HUMAN DO MAKE MISTAKE LOH....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:22 | Report Abuse

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Even if a stock has true intrinsic value, is there reason to believe that it's stock price will reflect it any time in the near future?
A stock that stays at a large discount to intrinsic value is a "value trap". It's an important issue for value investors and there are are few methods of avoid value traps.

Ben liked stocks were cheap on a book value basis, i.e. he liked to buy stocks that were trading for less than the value of their cash and liquid assets. But those stocks usually had lousy businesses and relatively "static" values. This means a stock might be worth $10 per share when you buy it for $5, but three years later it's still worth around $10 per share and trading around $5. Those stocks can be value traps for long periods.

One way to avoid a value trap with a cheap stock like Ben liked is to buy them with catalysts, i.e. new management or new plans to unlock that value through buybacks, dividends, or sale/merger.

The best way to avoid a value trap is to buy a growing business that increases value over time. I have one in my portolio that traded at a PE of 10 when I first bought it. Two years later it's PE is only up to 12, but since the company is growing sales and earnings 30% per year, it's practically doubled since my first purchase.

Lastly, even following Ben's prescription of super cheap companies without catalysts tends to work well if you do it in aggregate. Walter Schloss (who worked for Ben at the same time Warren Buffett did) apparently has done nothing but buy cheap value traps in a well diversified portfolio, and averaged 16% for 28 years (20% before fees). His record is documented in the end of the lastest edition in Warren Buffett's "SuperInvestors of Graham-Doddsville" speech. I'm not sure what special magic Walter knows, but he shows that it can be done.

IN SUMMARY TO AVOID VALUE TRAPS , U CAN ;
1) BUY WHEN THERE IS CATALYST
2) BUY A GROWTH STOCK
3) BUY AN AGGREGRATE DIVERSIFY STOCK

ON THE ISSUE OF GROWTH STOCK ADVOCATED BY W BUFFET....THE DOWNSIDE IS THAT....THE INVESTOR MAY GET THE GROWTH FORECAST ALL WRONG LOH....!!
FOR EXAMPLE....IF U HAD BOUGHT PET DAG IN 2014 BASED ON GROWTH....U BE SITTING ON A BIG LOSSES BCOS THE FORECAST FOR GROWTH (THE BASIS OF YOU OVER PAYING IN 2014) HAD BEEN ALL WRONG IN 2014 LOH....!!
AS A RESULT U WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPAIRMENT LOH....!!
THIS IS BASICALLY THE PITFALL OF GROWTH INVESTOR LOH....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:24 | Report Abuse

Ben makes one very important observation. If you are going to be an enterprising investor, you must be able to value companies well. You can't give it a half effort, because making mistakes won't just mean a lower return, they actually might mean a large loss. THATS WHY RAIDER ALWAYS SAY....VALUATION....VALUATION...!! Thumbs Up Thumbs Up


Graham was perhaps the first stock analyst to understand that in investing, price is everything. Indeed, buying shares of a great company means nothing if you overpaid.
And buying rubbish on the cheap will frequently leave you with only the unpleasant odor of a rotting portfolio. TO OVERCOME THIS PROBLEM RAIDER ALWAYS ADVOCATE STRONG BALANCE SHEET, PROFITABLE, DIVIDEND PAYING MAH...!

Graham details how to buy with a margin of safety, which he calls the "central concept" of investing. Put simply, the margin of safety is the difference between intrinsic value and the price at which a stock trades. For example, a security worth $50 per share but trading at $25 per share enjoys a massive 100% margin of safety. Buying in that situation heavily stacks the odds in favor of the investor. THIS IS WHAT RAIDER PRACTISE LOH...!! Thumbs Up Thumbs Up Cash Cash

Conversely, a stock that trades close to or above its intrinsic value offers almost no margin of safety. And buying without a margin of safety, in Graham's book, is no better than speculation.THIS WHAT RAIDER SAY LOH....IF U BUY BLUECHIPS ...AT HIGH PRICE....THIS IS WHAT HAPPEN LOH...!!


The usual value investor mantra is "never short", because the risk reward is backwards, you can lose your entire net worth if the stock goes up too high, but can only make double your investment. AGREED Thumbs Up Thumbs Up

People who short often protect themselves with stops, and increase their potential return by borrowing (leveraging). But value investors don't believe in stops (if you think XXX is overvalued at $260, why close your position when it's even more overvalued at $290?) and they wouldn't use leverage on an investment as risky as a short. YES NEVER NEVER SHORT LOH...!! Thumbs Down Thumbs Down

ON THE OTHER HAND IT IS LESS RISKY TO LONG & IF U R GOOD ENOUGH....LEVERAGE FOR LONG CAN BE CONSIDER...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:25 | Report Abuse

The speed at which a business's success is recognized, furthermore, is not that important as long as the company's intrinsic value is increasing at a satisfactory rate. In fact, delayed recognition can be an advantage: It may give us the chance to buy more of a good thing at a bargain price."

BUT DILEMA FACING INVESTOR....IS THAT, IS IT REALLY A VALUE TRAP OR IS IT A DELAYED GRATIFICATIONS ?
IF IT IS A DELAYED GRATIFICATIONS OK.....BUT ORDINARY INVESTOR HAS THE PROBLEM RECOGNISING WHICH