Posted by stockraider > 2016-01-17 10:01 | Report Abuse

INTRODUCTION
By Kenneth L. Fisher (Philip Fisher’s Son)
Ken Fisher credits his father for teaching him the "craft" of investing. He writes that, "It’s the difference between learning to play the piano (craft) and then composing (art)." Indeed Ken’s own investment practice—his art— deviates from his father’s preference for growth stocks; Ken prefers value-oriented investments. But the process Ken uses to arrive upon investment decisions is largely based on his father’s tenets of "scuttlebutt" and "the fifteen points." As the son now runs a large investment management company he uses these principles en mass. He also believes his father’s ideas about undue diversification, in particular, influenced Buffett.
Phil Fisher went to Stanford and started work as a security analyst in San Francisco in 1928.
He formed his own firm, Fisher & Co., in 1931. After some years in the game he decided to write this book, "In studying the investment record of both myself and others, two matters were significant influences in causing this book to be written. One, which I mention several times elsewhere, is the need for patience if big profits are to be made from investment. Put another way, it is often easier to tell what will happen to the price of a stock than how much time will elapse before it happens. The other is the inherently deceptive nature of the stock market. Doing what everybody else is doing at the moment, and therefore what you have an almost irresistible urge to do, is often the wrong thing to do at all."

1: CLUES FROM THE PAST
Fisher summarizes his conclusions from the past in the following paragraph, "Such a study indicates that the greatest investment reward comes to those who by good luck or good sense find the occasional company that over the years can grow in sales and profits far more than industry as a whole. It further shows that when we believe we have found such a company we had better stick with it for a long period of time.
It gives us a strong hint that such companies need not necessarily be young and small. Instead, regardless of size, what really counts is a management having both a determination to attain further important growth and an ability to bring its plans to completion…It makes clear to us that a general characteristic of such companies is a management that does not let its preoccupation with long-range planning prevent it from exerting constant vigilance in performing the day-to-day tasks of ordinary business outstandingly well."

2: WHAT SCUTTLEBUTT CAN DO- RAIDER'S EQUIVALENT OF 009 INVESTIGATION TEAM
Merriam-Webster defines "scuttlebutt" as:
1, a : a cask on shipboard to contain freshwater for a day's use, b : a drinking fountain on a ship or at a naval or marine installation
2 : RUMOR, GOSSIP
Fisher makes use of definition 2 here in the second chapter. "It is amazing what an accurate picture of the relative points of strength and weakness of each company in an industry can be obtained from a representative cross-section of the opinions of those who in one way or another are concerned with any particular company." Though he writes only three pages about scuttlebutt here, Fisher assures us the concept will be discussed in great detail all throughout the book.

Posted by stockraider > 2016-01-17 10:02 | Report Abuse

3: WHAT TO BUY, THE FIFTEEN POINTS…
Below you will find "The Fifteen points to look for in a common stock," Fisher’s famous checklist for the inquiring investor.
1. Does the company have products or services with sufficient market potential to make possible a sizable increase in sales for at least several years?
2. Does the management have a determination to continue to develop products or processes that will still further increase total sales potentials when the growth potentials of currently attractive product lines have largely been exploited?
3. How effective are the company’s research and development efforts in relation to its size?
4. Does the company have an above average sales organization?
5. Does the company have a worthwhile profit margin?
6. What is the company doing to maintain or improve profit margins?
7. Does the company have outstanding labor and personnel relations?
8. Does the company have outstanding executive relations?
9. Does the company have depth to its management?
10. How good are the company’s cost analysis and accounting methods?
11. Are there other aspects of the business, somewhat peculiar to the industry involved, which will give the investor important clues as to how outstanding the company may be in relation to its competition?
12. Does the company have a short-range or long-range outlook in regards to profits?
13. In the foreseeable future will the growth of the company require sufficient equity financing so that the large number of shares then outstanding will largely cancel the existing benefit from this anticipated growth?
14. Does the management talk freely to investors about its affairs when things are going well but "clam up" when troubles and disappointments occur?
15. Does the company have a management of unquestionable integrity?

LOOKING AT THE 15 POINTS MENTIONED.....IT IS VERY RARE THAT COMPANY LISTED IN KLSE WILL BE ABLE TO COMPLY ON ALL THE 15 POINTS MENTIONED. BUT COMPLYING WITH THE MAJORITY POINTS MENTIONED WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH LOH....!!
BUT ONE THING ........VERY IMPORTANT.....IF COMPLY WITH THE MAJORITY POINTS.....THERE IS A VERY HIGH CHANCE......THESE COMPANIES WILL BE PRICE RICHLY TOO.....MAKING INVESTMENT INTO THEM RISKY TOO LOH.....!!

THATS THE REASONS WHY FISHER ADVOCATES BUYING DURING MARKET CRASH & W,BUFFET OFTEN MENTIONED INVESTING USING PATIENT APPROACH OR WAITING FOR FAT PITCH .

Posted by stockraider > 2016-01-17 10:03 | Report Abuse

4: APPLYING THIS TO YOUR OWN NEEDS
"The typical investor has usually gathered a good deal of the half-truths, misconceptions, and just plain bunk that the general public has gradually accumulated about successful investing." Fisher posits that the average investor believes only a bookish genius is capable of superior returns. He doesn’t agree with this mean mentality. "The most skilled statistical bargain hunter ends up with a profit which is but a small part of the profit attained by those using reasonable intelligence in appraising the business characteristics of superbly managed growth companies," he further expounds upon his view of apparent expertise, "Even among some of the so-called authorities on investment, there is still enough lack of agreement on the basic principles involved that it is as yet impossible to have schools for training investment experts…"

5: WHEN TO BUY
Contrary to Buffett, Fisher is looking for companies that "will have spectacular growth in their per-share earnings." (Buffett is primarily concerned with consistent and handsome returns on equity.) Buffett and Fisher do agree on the worthlessness of macroeconomic forecasting. Fisher writes, "The conventional method of timing when to buy stocks is, I believe, just as silly as it appears on the surface to be sensible. This method is to marshal a vast mass of economic data…I believe that the economics which deal with the forecasting business trends may be considered to be about as far along as was the science of chemistry during the days of alchemy in the Middle Ages." Fisher prefers to buy into outstanding companies when their earnings are temporarily depressed, and so consequently is the share price, because of a new product or process launch. "In contrast to guessing which way general business or the stock market may go, he should be able to judge with only a small probability of error what the company into which he wants to buy is going to do in relation to business in general."
IN LAY MANS TERM, IF PRICE IS PRICE REASONABLY & THE BUSINESS GOT GOOD COMPETITIVE MOATS, U BETTER BUY LOH.....!!

6: WHEN TO SELL
Fisher is very precise about when to sell. "I believe there are three reasons, and three reasons only, for the sale of any common stock which has been originally selected according to the investment principles already discussed." They are:
1.) Upon realizing a mistake,........MISTAKE ON YOUR INVESTMENT ASSUMPTION
2.) When a stock no longer meets the 15 points, and RAIDER WILL SAY LARGE PARTS OF 15 POINTS.
3.) If a substantially attractive investment arises and stock needs to be sold to finance that investment.
Interestingly, Buffett’s commonly told parable about investing in your classmates seems to have originated out of this chapter. Both describe a hypothetical scenario of buying a percentage of the future earnings of a classmate. The point being that we should rationally select people on the basis of their character rather than purely on their intellect. Fisher notes how foolish it would be to sell your lucrative future contract on classmate’s earnings for the sake of buying another, less proven, classmate’s earnings, simply because somebody offered to buy your original classmate investment at a high price. THATS WHY RAIDER NEVER ENCOURAGE U SELL TO FINANCE TO BUY ANOTHER STOCK U THINK IT IS BETTER LOH......!! IF U REALLY WANT TO BUY DESPERATELY U USE YOUR MARGIN.

Posted by stockraider > 2016-01-17 10:05 | Report Abuse

7: THE HULLABALOO ABOUT DIVIDENDS
Fisher warns us to be wary of two scenarios when earnings are retained and no dividends are paid.
The first is when executives pile up liquid assets for a sense of security.
The second occurs when "substandard managements can get only a subnormal return on the capital already in the business, yet use the retained earnings merely to enlarge the inefficient operation rather than to make it better."
Fisher posits that "regularity or dependability" is the most important characteristic of dividends. He illustrates his claim using the restaurant parable that Buffett so often cites. "There is perhaps a close parallel between setting policy in regard to dividends and setting policy on opening a restaurant. A good restaurant man might build up a splendid business with a high priced venture. He might also build up a splendid business with an attractive place selling the best possible meals at the lowest possible prices. Or he could make a success of Hungarian, Chinese, or Italian cuisine. Each would attract a following. People would come there expecting a certain kind of meal. However, with all his skill, he could not possibly build up a clientele if one day he served the costliest meals, the next day low-priced ones, and then without warning served nothing but exotic dishes. The corporation that keeps shifting its dividend policies becomes as unsuccessful in attracting a permanent shareholder following. Its shares do not make the best long-range investments." RAIDER'S POINT ; DIVIDEND IS IMPORTANT ....BUT ALWAYS MAKE SURE IT IS SUSTAINABLE & MAINTAINABLE AND NOT ONE TIME SPECIAL HIGH DIVIDEND RATE MAH.....!!

8: FIVE DON’TS FOR INVESTORS
"1. Don’t buy into promotional companies." NEW LISTING OR IPO !!
"When a company is in a promotional stage…all an investor or anyone else can do is look at a blueprint and guess what the problems and strong points may be."
"There are enough spectacular opportunities among established companies that ordinary individual investors should make it a rule never to buy into a promotional enterprise."Fisher wants to see a firm with at least one year of operational profit and two to the three years of business before investing.
"2. Don’t ignore a good stock just because it is traded ‘over the counter.’"
"3. Don’t buy a stock just because you like the ‘tone’ of its annual report." THATS WHY U NEED 009 INVESTIGATION OR SCUTTLEBUTT TO CONFIRM THE STRENGTH MENTIONED....!!
"The annual report may…reflect little more than the skill of the company’s public relations department in creating an impression about the company in the public mind."
"4. Don’t assume that the high price at which a stock may be selling in relation to earnings is necessarily an indication that further growth in those earnings has largely been discounted already in the price." THIS RAIDER LIKE TO HIGHLIGHT....WHY RAIDER IS ALWAYS IN CONTENTION WITH 3I....DESPITE RAIDER HAVING THE SAME INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY OF GOOD QUALITY COMPANY.
"…why shouldn’t this stock sell five years from now for twice the price-earnings ratio of these more ordinary stocks just as it is doing now and has done for many years past?"
"5. Don’t quibble over eights and quarters."
"If the stock seems the right one and the price seems reasonably attractive at current levels, buy ‘at the market.’"

9: FIVE MORE DON’TS FOR INVESTORS
Given the recent terror and talk of war, we will focus on point two in this chapter.
"2. Don’t be afraid of buying on a war scare." MARKET CRASH U SHOULD HAVE THE CONFIDENT TO BUY...!!
"At the conclusion of all actual fighting—regardless of whether it was World War I, World War II, or Korea—most stocks were selling at levels vastly higher than prevailed before there was any thought of war at all. Furthermore, at least ten times in the last twenty-two years, news has come of other international crises which gave threat of major war. In every instance, stocks dipped sharply on the fear of war and rebounded sharply as the war scare subsided."
"War is always bearish on money. To sell a stock at the threatened or actual outbreak of hostilities so as to get into cash is extreme financial lunacy. Actually just the opposite should be done. If an investor has about decided to buy a particular common stock and the arrival of a full-blown war scare starts knocking down the price, he should ignore the scare psychology of the moment and definitely begin buying."
The other four points…
1. Don’t overstress diversification.
3. Don’t forget your Gilbert and Sullivan.
4. Don’t fail to consider time as well as price in buying a true growth stock.
5. Don’t follow the crowd.

Posted by stockraider > 2016-01-17 10:06 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-01-17 10:06 | Report Abuse

ooooh raider is here... must read must read...

Posted by stockraider > 2016-01-17 10:14 | Report Abuse

Stay clear of Malaysia, US fund manager tells investors
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Sat, 16 Jan 2016, 05:24 PM

Published: 16 January 2016 9:53 AM

Any positive news regarding the Malaysian economy has been wiped out by allegations of corruption at the government level, says an American fund. – The Malaysian Insider file pic, January 16, 2016.Any positive news regarding the Malaysian economy has been wiped out by allegations of corruption at the government level, says an American fund. – The Malaysian Insider file pic, January 16, 2016.Malaysia’s faltering economy, hit by claims of “rife corruption” at the government level, is a sign that foreign investors should steer clear, a financial adviser says today.

In an article on the website of Nasdaq, the electronic US stock exchange, Peter Kohli said previous positive news regarding the Malaysian economy had been affected by allegations of corruption at the government level.

“Malaysia’s economy is not firing on all cylinders,” he said, noting news reports in November that industrial output had slipped.

“There have been many high hopes after the last few years with regard to Malaysia being a top investment destination, but in my opinion, it has never really lived up to expectations.

“I have written previously about Malaysia becoming a manufacturing hub for companies like Hyundai, but that positive news has been tempered with allegations of rife corruption in the government.”

Kohli, who is CEO of DMS Funds, said news of a RM2.6 billion political donation transferred into Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s personal accounts in particular have not helped investors’ confidence.
Other factors making Malaysia unattractive were the ringgit’s position as the worst performing Asian currency against the US dollar in 2015, and the slump in world oil prices.

“I wish I had better news, but as long as the economy keeps contracting, foreign retail investors should stay clear. Look to Malaysia’s southern neighbour, the Philippines, as a better bet,” he said in the article.

Najib, who denies any wrongdoing, recently announced an impending revision to Budget 2016 in light of the country’s falling revenue from lower oil prices and uncertainties in the global economy.
The prime minister said the national budget needed to be “more realistic” and in line with the current economic situation, adding that outside factors beyond Malaysia’s control had influenced the economy, not the mistakes or weaknesses of the country.

Najib has been under fire over allegations of corruption and financial mismanagement related to his brainchild, state-owned investment firm 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB), which had racked up debts of more than RM45 billion.

Elsewhere, a Bloomberg article quoting government estimates said Malaysia as Asia’s only major net oil exporter risked losing RM300 million for every US$1 per barrel drop.
The ringgit, Asia’s worst performing currency in 2015, slumped 19% last year and reached a 17-year low of 4.48 a dollar in September. – January 16, 2016.

WHAT'S RAIDERS OPINION ?
NEUTRAL....!! TO BE CONTRAIAN, U NEED TO LOOK FOR TURNING POINTS ; IF THE PARTICULAR STOCKS OR MARKET NO LONGER REACT TO NEGATIVE NEWS.....AS A CONTRAIAN IT IS AN INDICATION TO JUMP IN.....!!

THE KEY IS WAIT & WATCH PATIENTLY FOR SIGNS OF TURNING POINTS.....!!

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-01-17 10:26 | Report Abuse

Good morning Great Raider,

Mr. Market is reactive. As Value Investors we must be proactive.

I am looking at the January 2009 monthly Digest of Dynaquest.

Dr. Neoh recommended SKPRES when it was only 9.5 cents then.

Today Skpres already up more than 1,300%(13 baggars) to Rm1.39 more than 5 Research Houses are calling for a buy on Skpres for year 2016 Top picks.

Dr Neoh is proactive while so many are reactive.

Posted by stockraider > 2016-01-17 10:42 | Report Abuse

Hi Calvin,

Yes we need to proactive but we need to be careful too....!!

The CI index has come down about 5% for the year, but not aggressive compare with last year..........this is lowe compare to Singapore & China.

But one thing....very notable, is that, the good export counters that make use of commodity move up alot something like 50% to 300%..resulting in lower bargain hunting opportunities.

There is a bull in plastic, rubber gloves and wood stocks.

Some good profitable secondary & small caps stocks also rerated upward 40% to 60% also.

An investor can employed 2 strategy effectively;

1) To continue to search for margin of safety counters with good prospect.

2) To wait for fat pitch or major market sell reaction to get in.

For Raider's is still holding a reasonable large position of stocks, thus raider has slowed down on item 1) and to build up reserve for opportunity of fat pitch.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-01-17 10:57 | Report Abuse

Yes Smart stockraider,

I have cashed out much earlier and now I am only 5% invested in stocks. Yes, I am waiting for a major market correction to buy in.

I just finished reading a very excellent book called

"RISING ABOVE FINANCIAL STORMS"
By Dr. Tan Chong Koay

This is one of the best investment books I have read by a Malaysian Fund Manager. It echoes my sentiments very much and I got many "aha" moments reading it.

Recently, I saw some corporate exercise in Nylex. Company share buybacks pushed Nylex to a high of 66 cents (Only few lots share buy backs). Upon further checking I saw Dynaquest Sdn Bhd suddenly appeared in Top 11 shareholders in latest Annual Report of Nylex with 1.1 million shares.

I think Dr Neoh has already launched an investment Fund like TTB of ICapbiz. Last time my Johor Sifu bought ICapbiz at Rm1.00 when Tan Teng Boo scouted for funds.

Could you please check whether Dr Neoh is launching a Fund like TTB?

Thks

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-01-17 13:53 | Report Abuse

He won't I think? If really I will invest all my money with him!

Posted by stockraider > 2016-01-17 20:27 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2016-01-22 11:36 | Report Abuse

To stay or to sell in anticipation of possible market downturns?

For those seeking major gains through long-term investments, the odds of winning are not the only consideration.
If the investment is in a well-run company with sufficient financial strength, even the greatest bear market will not erase the value of holding.
In contrast, time after time, truly unusual stocks have subsequent peaks many hundreds of percent above their previous peaks.
Thus, risk/reward considerations favour long-term investment.

In the simplest mathematical terms, both the odds and the risk/reward considerations favour holding.
There is a much greater chance of being wrong in estimating adverse short-term changes for a good stock than in projecting its strong, long-term price appreciation potential.

If you stay with the right stocks through even a major temporary market drop, you are at most going to be temporarily behind 40% of the former peak at the very worst point and will ultimately be ahead; whereas if you sell and don't buy back you will have missed long-term profits many times the short-term gains from having sold the stock in anticipation at a short-term reversal.

It is so difficult to time correctly the near-term price movements of an attractive stock that the profits made in the few instances when this stock is sold and subsequently replaced at significantly lower prices are dwarfed by the profits lost when the timing is wrong.

Many have sold too soon and have either never gotten back in or have postponed reinvestment too long to recapture the profits possible."- FISHER

RAIDER COMMENT;

RAIDER THINK SELL SOME OF YOUR STOCKS HOLDING IN ANTICIPATION OF DOWNTURN IS A HEALTHY APPROACH;

1) IT HELP U TO REBALANCE YOUR PORTFOLIO
2) U SELL THE STOCKS WHICH IS OVERVALUE WITH NO MARGIN OF SAFETY, AS RECOMMENDED BY B GRAHAM.
3) IT PROVIDE U SOME CASH FOR EMERGENCY & REINVEST SHOULD THE STOCK FALL TO A MORE REASONABLE VALUE OR SHOULD MARKET REALLY CRASH U HAVE THE AMMUNITION TO PICK IT UP CHEAP.....!!

YES RAIDER AGREED THAT IN THE LONG RUN ALWAYS BET ON THE LONG SIDE OF THE MARKET....BCOS IT ALWAYS WINS IN LONG RUN LOH...!!

BUT U SHOULD MAKE MORE, IF MR MARKET OVERVALUE YOUR STOCKS & PAY U ALOT MORE, U SELL MAH.....!

BUT DO NOT OVER SALE, ALWAYS TRY TO REINVEST IN MARGIN OF SAFETY STOCKS....UNLESS U CANNOT FIND ANY MORE MARGIN OF SAFETY STOCKS !

RAIDER OWN MINIMUM EQUITYT EXPOSURE IS 60% LOH.....AND RAIDER MAX....CAN GO 120% MAH....!!

NOW RAIDER 65% EXPOSURE JUST NICE & COMFORTABLE LOH....!!

Posted by cheerish > 2016-01-22 11:37 | Report Abuse

temporary rebound. sell all now

Posted by stockraider > 2016-01-22 16:00 | Report Abuse

Quote from: stockraider on Today at 11:30:18 AM

"To stay or to sell in anticipation of possible market downturns?

For those seeking major gains through long-term investments, the odds of winning are not the only consideration.
If the investment is in a well-run company with sufficient financial strength, even the greatest bear market will not erase the value of holding.
In contrast, time after time, truly unusual stocks have subsequent peaks many hundreds of percent above their previous peaks.
Thus, risk/reward considerations favour long-term investment.

In the simplest mathematical terms, both the odds and the risk/reward considerations favour holding.
There is a much greater chance of being wrong in estimating adverse short-term changes for a good stock than in projecting its strong, long-term price appreciation potential.

If you stay with the right stocks through even a major temporary market drop, you are at most going to be temporarily behind 40% of the former peak at the very worst point and will ultimately be ahead; whereas if you sell and don't buy back you will have missed long-term profits many times the short-term gains from having sold the stock in anticipation at a short-term reversal.

It is so difficult to time correctly the near-term price movements of an attractive stock that the profits made in the few instances when this stock is sold and subsequently replaced at significantly lower prices are dwarfed by the profits lost when the timing is wrong.

Many have sold too soon and have either never gotten back in or have postponed reinvestment too long to recapture the profits possible."- PHILIP FISHER;

RAIDER COMMENT;

RAIDER THINK SELL SOME OF YOUR STOCKS HOLDING IN ANTICIPATION OF DOWNTURN IS A HEALTHY APPROACH;

1) IT HELP U TO REBALANCE YOUR PORTFOLIO
2) U SELL THE STOCKS WHICH IS OVERVALUE WITH NO MARGIN OF SAFETY, AS RECOMMENDED BY B GRAHAM.
3) IT PROVIDE U SOME CASH FOR EMERGENCY & REINVEST SHOULD THE STOCK FALL TO A MORE REASONABLE VALUE OR SHOULD MARKET REALLY CRASH U HAVE THE AMMUNITION TO PICK IT UP CHEAP.....!!

YES RAIDER AGREED THAT IN THE LONG RUN ALWAYS BET ON THE LONG SIDE OF THE MARKET....BCOS IT ALWAYS WINS IN LONG RUN LOH...!!

BUT U SHOULD MAKE MORE, IF MR MARKET OVERVALUE YOUR STOCKS & PAY U ALOT MORE, U SELL MAH.....!

BUT DO NOT OVER SALE, ALWAYS TRY TO REINVEST IN MARGIN OF SAFETY STOCKS....UNLESS U CANNOT FIND ANY MORE MARGIN OF SAFETY STOCKS !

RAIDER OWN MINIMUM EQUITYT EXPOSURE IS 60% LOH.....AND RAIDER MAX....CAN GO 120% MAH....!!

NOW RAIDER 65% EXPOSURE JUST NICE & COMFORTABLE LOH....!!


PAPERLANE QUESTION

Raider, tht means you will hold up to MAx 40% in cash for your portfolio'? even in down time?

Posted by stockraider > 2016-01-22 16:01 | Report Abuse

Yes....Raider will never hold more than 40% cash even in downtime, bcos raider know....in long run the return in cash will lose to the equity......!!
Thus it is important to have a sizeable equity portfolio of course the stocks must have margin of safety, even if market is weak or bearish mah......!!

The point raise by Philip Fisher is valid too.....!!
Sometime it is very difficult to buy back what u have sold....!!

The market may turn against u, and go up very fast loh......!!

Posted by stockraider > 2016-01-25 12:44 | Report Abuse

IS THERE REALLY A SANTA CLAUS RALLY FOR THE MAT SALLEH ?
IS THERE REALLY A CHOYSUN RALLY FOR THE ASIAN AND CHINESE PEOPLE ?

THE ANSWER IS YES....!
ESPECIALLY WHEN MARKET HAD ALOT OF PESSIMISM LOH....!

It might not be the most disappointing thing you've ever heard in regards to Santa Claus, but Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader's Almanac has some disappointing news for those still waiting for the eponymous rally to save the markets.

"Everybody likes to say any sort of year-end rally is the Santa Claus rally," says Hirsch. "The Santa Claus rally is the last five days of the year plus the first two days of the next."
Now that I feel like a dolt for laying out rally cookies and milk next to the money tree in my living room for the last two weeks Hirsch is free to explain what I'm supposed to do with this new information.

For one thing I can better focus my book. Hirsch says that his version of the rally is shorter in time but makes up for it with returns and powers of prognostication. On the return front, the average gain during those seven trading days has been 1.5 - 1.7% for the last half century.
THERE IS A BIAS IN THE MARKET OVER PAST 50 YRS AVERAGE GAIN 1.5% PA JUST 7 DAYS ONLY MAH...!

However, if the market fails to rally, Hirsch believes that in itself is telling. IF NO RALLY IT GOING BE BAD OR SUI FOR THE WHOLE YEAR.....SO BECAREFUL LOH....BEAR SIGN LOH....! PLEASE TAKE NOTE LOH...! BOOCHOWCCCCCCCCC LOH...!


"If Santa Claus should fail to call bears may come to Broad and Wall (Street)," says Hirsch. In 1999 and 2000, as well as 2007 - 08 were recent harbingers of doom when investors would have been well-served to heed.

Hirsch himself notes the limitations of basing an investing strategy on seven trading days. It's data mining, and as Hirsch puts it "if you torture numbers long enough you can get them to say anything." What these numbers are telling us is we best pay at least some attention to the trading at the end of next month.

Before blithely dismissing the data look at the tape for the last decade and 2011 in particular. It's not really the place of any investor to start getting snobby about their foolproof methodology, now is it?

ON CHOYSUN RALLY THE AVERAGE GAIN....IS EVEN MORE POWERFUL BASE ON SENIOR ANALYST STUDY AVERAGE GAIN OF 3% PA.........7 DAYS B4 CHINESE NEW YEAR AND 15 DAYS AFTER FOR THE PAST 40 YRS....!

SO ALL MEMBERS JUST PRAY & TRUST BOTH SANTA CLAUS AND CHOYSUN WILL COME TO SAVE THE DAY FOR ALL US LOH....!

CONCLUSION

RAIDER BELIEVE LOH....!

Every year Raider try to remind readers that Choysun is coming, b4 chinese new year mah......!!
With the above articles mah.....!! Those who believe make monies mah.....!!
Bcos raider knows he will be coming mah.....!!

Please bear in mind....this year (2015)- The Santa Claus Rally did not really happen.....but does that mean, choysun suffer the same fate ?

The answer is no loh......!!
Bcos choysun....u buy at 15% to 20% lower than santa claus mah....!!
The valuation is lower, thus higher margin of safety loh....!!

Tuesday is the 1s day choysun arriving....u may take advantage loh....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2016-01-25 12:55 | Report Abuse

ON CHOYSUN RALLY THE AVERAGE GAIN....IS EVEN MORE POWERFUL BASE ON SENIOR ANALYST STUDY AVERAGE GAIN OF 3% PA.........7 DAYS B4 CHINESE NEW YEAR AND 15 DAYS AFTER FOR THE PAST 40 YRS....!

SO ALL MEMBERS JUST PRAY & TRUST CHOYSUN WILL COME AND PROSPER US LOH....!

CONCLUSION

Strong Buy Equities 2016 rebound in beginning after CNY loh.....!!!

Please bear in mind....this year (2015)- The Santa Claus Rally did not really happen.....but does that mean, choysun suffer the same fate in Chinese New Year 2016 ?

The answer is no loh......!!
Bcos choysun....u buy at 15% to 20% lower than santa claus mah....!!
The valuation is lower, thus higher margin of safety loh....!!

Tuesday is the 1st day choysun arriving....u may take advantage loh....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2016-01-31 09:44 | Report Abuse

Bank of Japan negative interest rate

By adopting a negative interest rate, the central bank hopes banks will step up lending to support activity in the real economy, rather than pay a penalty to deposit excess cash at the BOJ.

There is little sign of any pent-up demand from Japanese banks or cash-rich companies for fresh funds, and any money released into the system may merely be hoarded or steered into speculative activity such as betting on stocks.

"This is an aggressive all-stick-no-carrot approach to spurring investment, as depositors are essentially penalized for holding cash," said Martin King, co-managing director at Tyton Capital Advisors in Tokyo.

The BOJ maintained its pledge to expand base money at an annual pace of 80 trillion yen (US$675 billion) via aggressive purchases of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) and risky assets conducted under its quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE) programme

RAIDER COMMENT;

B4 ACTION BY BOJ, THE MARKET IS IN A BEARISH PHASE & FALLING LOH......!!
THE ACTION OF BOJ HAS REVERSE THE MARKET DIRECTION FROM NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE IN THE SHORT TERM MAH...!!

RAIDER THINK & SAY JUST JUMP IN LOH.....!! ANYHOW MARKET HAS CORRECTED WITH SOME DISCOUNT LOH....!!

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-01-31 10:00 | Report Abuse

good morning raider

Posted by leno > 2016-01-31 10:08 | Report Abuse

yawning ... yawning ... yawning ... i just wasted my 5 precious seconds of my life reading this c2peed copy and paste post .... BOOOOOOOOOO RINNNNNNNNGGGGG .... ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ ..... ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ .... i better go back to sleep ... zzzzzzzzzzzzZZZZZZZZZ ...

Posted by stockraider > 2016-01-31 10:37 | Report Abuse

Leno,

Yes it copy & paste....but most important is the interpretation, the market has reversed to a short term up bias based on bank of japan move mah.....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2016-01-31 10:47 | Report Abuse

Too all,

Alot of the articles here is extracted from some where else, but please bear in mind, the reason why it is paste here, is that raider view, that those articles are important for us to make an investment decision.

This is how raider see a fruitful way of exchange of ideas & knowledge with readers for our betterment mah....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2016-02-01 12:03 | Report Abuse

Bonerchyte....Trust raider loh....in fact raider make alot of monies mah thru the theory of sitting mah.....!!

Long term investment is the way to go for all investor loh...!!

For trader the theory of sitting (holding abit longer) in order to achieve our objective is still advocated, U set your trailing stop as the share move up....u sell only when your stop triggered.

U don sell just bcos u make alot of monies on a particular stock.
U sell bcos the stock no more margin of safety or ur trailing stop is triggered mah.....!!

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2016-02-01 12:05 | Report Abuse

Stockraider,

Happy Chines New Year.............wishing u a wonderful HUAT every year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by stockraider > 2016-02-01 12:08 | Report Abuse

FOR FUNDAMENTAL INVESTOR,

To help u below is the investment master advise;

Phil Fisher, called the three-year rule. This is what the late Mr. Fisher had to say about this topic:

“While I realized thoroughly that if I were to make the kinds of profits that are made possible by [my] process … it was vital that I have some sort of quantitative check… With this in mind, I established what I called my three-year rule.” Fisher adds, “I have repeated again and again to my clients that when I purchase something for them, not to judge the results in a matter of a month or a year, but allow me a three year period.”
Certainly, there will be situations where an investment thesis is wrong, valuation explodes, or there are superior investment opportunities that will trigger a sale before the three-year minimum expires. Nonetheless, I follow Fisher’s rule in principle in hopes of setting the bar high enough to only let the best ideas into both my client and personal portfolios.

As I have written in the past, there are always reasons of why you should not invest for the long-term and instead sell your position, such as: 1) new competition; 2) cost pressures; 3) slowing growth; 4) management change; 5) valuation; 6) change in industry regulation; 7) slowing economy; 8 ) loss of market share; 9) product obsolescence; 10) etc, etc, etc. You get the idea.

Posted by ckwan11d > 2016-02-01 12:20 | Report Abuse

A long-term period of 3 years is quite long under the Malaysian investment climate and landscape.

Posted by stockraider > 2016-02-01 12:21 | Report Abuse

Raider is not calvin lah.....!!

Just that some of Calvin stock pick raider like loh....!!

Icon stock pick raider also like mah.....!!

Duitkita another stockpicker raider follow, also paperlane loh....!!
Many many more investors raider follow like recent new Faye Tan..etc loh.....!!

Raider Use the Leech investment tech....following the good investors mah...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2016-02-01 12:44 | Report Abuse

Buy and Hold is Dead…Unless Stocks Go Up

If you are serious about your investments, I believe you must be mentally willing to commit to a relationship with your stock, not for a day, not for a week, or not for a month, but rather for years. Now, I know this is blasphemy in the age when “buy-and-hold” investing is considered dead, but I refute that basic premise whole-heartedly…with a few caveats.

Sure, buy-and-hold is a stupid strategy when stocks do nothing for a decade – like they have done in the 2000s, but buying and holding was an absolutely brilliant strategy in the 1980s and 1990s. Moreover, even in the miserable 2000s, there have been many buy-and-hold investments that have made . So, the moral of the story for me is “buy-and-hold” is good for stocks that go up in price, and bad for stocks that go flat or down in price. Wow, how deeply profound!

THATS WHY PHILIP FISHER SAYS TO MAKE GOOD MONIES U BUY HOLD GOOD STOCK FOR AT LEAST 3 YEARS....!!

NOTICE THE KEY IS GOOD STOCK WITH MARGIN OF SAFETY....!!

Posted by ckwan11d > 2016-02-01 13:02 | Report Abuse

Thank you stockraider. A lesson learnt.

Posted by stockraider > 2016-02-16 22:48 | Report Abuse

Shell takeover Rm 1.80....share price rm 2.80 but actual fair value Rm 8.00.

Raider will explain how u can take advantage loh.....!!
How could u overcome conned man in this situation and yet be profitable...it is an important case study loh....!!

RAIDER DRAW ATTENTION ON OPPORTUNITY...DO NOT LET FEAR & WORRY AFFECT U....!!
Raider do not need to show make alot of monies on shell......!!
Raider just want to guide that, Shell currently give alot opportunity to make monies...even GO is Rm 1.80 when share price is Rm 2.80....!!
Do not afraid of the Conned mah.....!!

BE STEADY HANG TIGHT.....HOLD LONG TERM 5 YRS....OPPORTUNITY TO HIT RM 6.00 TO RM 10.00 MAH....!!
[/quote]

RAIDER comment, AN IMPORTANT ADVISE TO SHORT TERM PLAYER LOH....!!,
Correctloh.....although shell intrinsic value of rm 8.00 with margin of safety of rm 5.00....raider no advocate buy now at rm 3.00....!!
Hang on....for more EPF selling loh......!!

BUT ANYHOW DO NOT FORGET THE IMPORTANCE OF INTRINSIC VALUE COMPARE WITH ENTRY LOW PRICE
U may key in for a small initial buy at Rm 2.50.....although a far cry from GO of rm 1.80 but it is good start just in case u cannot get at Rm 1.80.....!!

Within 5 yrs u get Shell back to rm 6.00 to 10.00....a minimum return of 20% compound return for 5 years mah.....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2016-02-16 22:51 | Report Abuse

Quote from: Oly Shyte on Today at 12:32:56 AM
GO RM1.80 but you asked all the comrades here to buy above RM1.80..... !!

RAIDER COMMENT & ADVISE TO OLY,
Remember Rm 3.00 & below.....!!
That means u need to wait.....although raider say buy......!!

RAIDER ALSO GIVE SO FLEXIBILITY, THIS IS THE BEST WAY TO LEARN
At what price below Rm 3.00 ?
U will need to use your judgement loh, raider cannot spoon feed u everyday loh.....!!

LONG TERM INVESTOR DON WASTE TIME JUST BUY SHELL LOH!!...WHETHER U BUY AT RM 2.50 OR 3.00 IT MAKE LITTLE DIFFERENCE WHEN SHELL IN 5 YRS TIME IS RM 8.00 LOH...!!
Anyhow raider says......in 5 yrs time Shell will be Rm 6.00 to 10.00.....!!
Again if u r lazy to monitor.....use your judgement at what price to get in and hold for 5 yrs for long term investor loh....!!

Quote from: iiinvestsmart on February 14, 2016, 11:48:55 AM

Raider does not own Shell.

He is also not so transparent in his postings.

He would out of the dark revealed he owns a stock that has recently risen.

He would also out of the blue revealed he had sold a stock some time ago that has recently fallen.

Always remembered and get amused by his margin of safety slogan. :D

RAIDER COMMENT AND ADVISE TO 3I PLEASE CONCENTRATE ON THE INVESTMENT TECH RAIDER ADVOCATE BELOW LOH...FOCUS ON SHELL MAH !!, NOT FOCUS ON RAIDER LOH....!!

How people say raider not transparent ?
This is the way to play shell mah.....!!

If u are short term & hate to see a temporary paper loss, wait for the big selldown to get in loh....bcos EPF selling mah....!!

If u can hold long term & lazy to monitor, then potential small paper losses may not be an issue, u may buy now bcos 5 yrs time shell will be Rm 6 to 10 mah....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2016-02-16 22:51 | Report Abuse

RAIDER ADVICE TO CLP 72, DON BE NAIVE...IF U R....U LOSS OPPORTUNITY MAH....!!
Quote from: clp72 on Today at 08:04:41 AM
Besides the slumping oil prices, I think this was the key reasons why they sold.
"Despite the improvement, SRC chairman Datuk Iain Lo concedes in a statement that the company’s earnings will likely remain under pressure as a result of its debt load and the significant investment required to meet Euro IV and V fuel-compliance requirements."

RAIDER COMMENT,
U must understand this loh......!!
Oil refinery business are oligopoly mah.....!!
If Shell require to spend a lot for Euro iv & v the same applies to Petron and PETRONAS mah.....!!
Why PETRONAS & Petron share price no tumble, whereas Shell tumble ?

SHELL TUMBLE BCOS OF CON OR PAKAT.....!! AFTER THE DEAL IS COMPLETED....THEY WILL SING A DIFFERENT SONG....JUST LIKE PETRON PREVIOUSLY AFTER THE GO.....!!
OF COURSE U NEED TO BE PATIENT....THATS WHY RAIDER SAY WAIT 5 YRS HOLD LOH.....!!

Quote from: Oly Shyte on Yesterday at 10:27:33 AM

As usual each time stockraider's oil stocks drop further from his delusional valuation, he used the word CON........that wait for 5 years more * because he himself can't wait for that long!
All these are stockraider's propaganda! :

RAIDER COMMENT & URGE READER TO PAY VERY IMPORTANT ATTENTION,
How people say raider not transparent ?

This is the way to play shell mah.....!!
If u are short term & hate to see a temporary paper loss, wait for the big selldown to get in loh....bcos EPF selling mah....!!

If u can hold long term & lazy to monitor, then potential small paper losses may not be an issue, u may buy now bcos 5 yrs time shell will be Rm 6 to 10 mah....!!

IN MEDIUM & LONG TERM THERE IS AN ANSWER LOH.....!!

1. DO NOT FOCUS ON SHORT TERM SHARE PRICE MOVEMENT LOH.....!!
2. LOOK INTO THE FUNDAMENTAL, PROSPECT AND VALUATION V THE SHARE PRICE
3. IF THERE IS A GOOD BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY BUY LOH.....!!
4. HOLD FOR LONGER TERM ABOUT 5 YRS MAH......!!
5. IF U DO THAT, U SURE MAKE MONIES LOH......!!

REMEMBER IN THE SHORT TERM THE SHARE PRICE IS A VOTING MACHINE WHICH U HAVE NO CONTROL LOH.....!!
IN A LONGER TERM IT IS A WEIGHING MACHINE, WHICH VALUE CAN BE DETERMINE MAH.....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2016-02-16 22:54 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2016-02-16 22:55 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2016-02-16 22:55 | Report Abuse

Quote from: iiinvestsmart on Today at 04:35:35 PM

Scuttlebutt.

This is more intellivent than raider shouting from his b u t t that its intrinsic value is $8.00.

Raider says;
Talking rubbish loh.....!!
Petroleum business is good business mah.....it is oligopoly mah.....!!
Just look at Petron & Petronas, see so much monies they make loh.....!!

Shell only face temporary setback.....like w buffet says it is opportunity to buy cheap mah....!!

Quote from: clp72 on Today at 04:30:36 PM

I dont think Shell is that stupid to sell the refinery business below market price. The actually value it at that price. From what i understand from my friends working there, the margins for the refinery business is very thin and they dont generate enough rev to pay off their debts. Furthermore, every year they got to shut the refinery down for 1 week for service and 2.5 months shut down every 3 years which further erode margins.

Raider comment DON BE NAIVE;
ANOTHER VERY NAIVE TALKING LOH.....!!
IT IS NOT SHELL STUPID.....IT IS A CONNED JOB MAH....HOW MANY TIME RAIDER NEED TO REMIND U ALL LOH.....!!
IT IS THIS TYPE OF SITUATION U GET REAL VALUE MAH.....!!
SHELL VALUE RM 8.00.....GO AT RM 1.80.....SHARE PRICE AT RM 2.80 LOH.....THERE IS ALOT OF INTRINSIC VALUE BCOS IN 5 YRS TIME EASILY RM 6.00 TO 10.00 MAH.....!!

ALREADY PROVEN...U CHECKED PETRON NOW, THE SHARE PRICE COMPARE WITH THE PREVIOUS GO LOH.....!!
THIS HOW THERE CONNED LOH.....11

Posted by stockraider > 2016-02-16 23:00 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-02-23 18:43 | Report Abuse

it is good to see raider here.
One question for sifu raider, how about KESM?
my 1st TP is RM10 actually by this year, then RM16.

what is your view?

Posted by stockraider > 2016-02-24 12:37 | Report Abuse

Hi Paperlane,

Raider value KESMI around Rm 6.50 max....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2016-02-28 23:20 | Report Abuse

Secrets of tycoons revealed Part 2: Use margin to its limit kcchongnz
Author: kcchongnz | Publish date: Sun, 28 Feb 2016, 06:00 PM

I read about this from an article published in ********** recently. It is a big hit and as usual appear as the top article. This is a catch phrase in the article. YES RAIDER AGREE USING MARGIN HAS RISK LOH....BUT U NEED TO MASTER IT B4 U CAN BE REALLY GOOD LOH..JUST LIKE SOME ONE WHO WIN OLYMPIC MEDAL....DO U THINK HOW MUCH HE MUCH PAIN AND SUFFERING HE NEEDS TO ENDURE....B4 HE WINS AN OLYMPIC MEDAL..!!

“Let me explain in details with examples so that you can learn how to make more money using margin to its limit, provided you know how to select really good shares to buy.”
It is precisely that this statement came from a very popular and famous person that it can be fatal for the youngsters and newbies who respect him so much and tend to follow what he preaches. RAIDER SAYS IF U REALLY WANTS TO BE A TYCOONS THAN U BETTER START YOUNG...NOT ALL CAN MAKE IT...U HAVE TO GO THRU HARD AND DIFFICULT PART...LIKE AN OLYMPIC ATHELETE..U NEED MASTER MANY MANY SKILLS B4 SUCCESSFUL LOH....!!

Having been in ********** for quite some time posting my articles and responding to comments, it is in my opinion that if I do not write something about this topic (again), I am doing a disservice to the younger readers and newbies in this forum, and to the society at large. RAIDER HAS NOTHING TO AGAINST KC HERE....BUT RAIDER THINK....KC THINKING IS FLAWS HERE...ON THE PREMISE...THE FAILURE OF THE ASPIRING MARGIN TYCOON...IS NOT DUE TO HIS MARGIN....BUT THE ISSUE OF LACK SKILL....TO MAKE THE GRADE LOH..!! JUST LIKE AN OLYMPIC ATHELETE U NEED TO MASTER THE NECESSARY THE INVESTMENT ROBES OF TRADE...B4 U CAN REALLY DO WELL LOH....!!

In most civilized societies and in a criminal case, a witness who fails to give evidence or produce the required documents can be punished for contempt of court. So I am just an ordinary citizen doing his duty.

This article titled “Secrets of tycoons revealed” by “using margin to its limit” is actually misleading, I admit. I have had no experience on that actually. It is merely done so to catch your attention, as who doesn’t want to be a tycoon? Got you!
But don’t get me wrong. I do believe there are some investors who have become very rich tycoons using margin to its limit. You can even read some testimonials about them in public forums, even in ********** forum. My sincere congratulation to them, deep down from my heart. Give me a “five”. YES RAIDER ASK HOW MANY PEOPLE CAN MASTER A SKILL....B4 HE CAN COMPETE IN OLYMPIC LEH ?

However, for youngsters and newbies, and even for most experienced investors, before you embark on this journey of trying to “make more money using margin to its limit”, it may be wise for you to read this article posted by someone else here first. I think it was from Warren Buffett. YES RAIDER SAYS W BUFFET....IS THE ALL TIME GOLD MEDALIST IN THE INVESTMENT WORLD LOH...!!
SURPRISING HE IS DISCOURAGING PEOPLE FROM USING MARGIN ? RAIDER SAY YES....W.BUFFET...STARTED INVESTING WHEN HE IS 7 YRS OLD....IN FACT HE HAS GONE THRU ALL THE ROBES OF INVESTMENT LOH.....!!
HE HAS USED MARGIN B4 TOO....WHY HE DISCOURAGE ? BCOS WARREN ADVISE IS FOR THE AVERAGE INVESTOR LOH....!!
HE DO NOT MEAN FOR STAR INVESTOR.....WITH ASPIRING OLYMPIC MEDAL IN MIND....AND MASTER INVESTMENT....TO BE A TYCOON LOH...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2016-02-28 23:20 | Report Abuse

So everyone is waiting for the book of “Secrets of tycoons revealed by using margin to its limit” from this guy below. I presume “margin accounts” mentioned below is for stock market investment/speculation. OF COURSE TO BE AN INVESTMENT TYCOON...U NEED TO MASTER INVESTMENT AND ALSO MASTER THE POWER OF LEVERAGE AND MANAGE THE RISK TOO...!!
NOT MANY PEOPLE CAN MEET THE GRADE LOH.....!!

Posted by Desa20201956 > Feb 26, 2016 04:42 PM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.**********.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif
Secrets of the tycoons
..........the secret of the tycoons is that they all have margin accounts, they all have higher risk appetite than their neighbors at one stage in their lives.

My article below clearly is not an article about “Secrets of tycoons revealed by using margin to its limit”. It is also not for those coin flippers who gotten ten, or even twenty flips of heads, but rather for the rest who participated in that coin flipping contest. RAIDER NOT AGREE HERE...IT IS NOT COIN FLIPPING....IT IS THE MASTERY OF THE ART OF INVESTMENT.

The wisdom of Super Investors
I have written an article on “The Core Principles of Super Investors” in this link below:

These super investors include Warren Buffet, Joel Greenblatt, Seth Klarman, and Howard Marks. They managed multi-billion USD funds for investors and they themselves are worth billions from the success of their own investments. For those who are interested, you can follow the above link and find out who they are, how they do it, and why are they so successful.

TO BE RICH...ONE OF DEVICE IS TO USE OTHER PEOPLE MONIES (OPM

Posted by stockraider > 2016-02-28 23:21 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2016-02-28 23:22 | Report Abuse

I have written and provided numbers and different scenarios the peril of leverage here with various scenarios that margin financing can be devastating if the outcome of events goes against you and you can lose everything and more, with an example of a leverage fund I had had experience with.
I wrote and repeated about what happened in 1998 in KLSE when Anwar Ibrahim was sacked as the Deputy Prime Minister, and warned that Black Swan, or a six sigma event can happen, and it happens quite frequently nowadays, and many investors with margin finance lost their pants.

Sometime in June 2015 I was arguing with someone regarding the peril of margin finance when the Shanghai Stock Exchange, SSX, was at its peak at 5023. It was only 8 months ago and today SSX closed at 2767 for a loss of the broad index of a whopping 45%. How much do you think those individual speculatos in high flying stocks with margin finance would have lost?

I have even given a real life example, someone who is supposedly very skillful and competent in investment, and in using OPM too to show how dangerous is margin financing in stock investment.

Margin financing in stock speculation, asyou can see from the above examples, can incur heavy losses to speculators and has ruined many individuals and families. It is not good for the overall market too as every investor is affected when the market experiences a free fall due to margin calls.

This is a good comment regarding the use of margin finance appeared in my last article.

RAIDER SAY ALL THE ABOVE EVENT....KC MENTIONED MARKET CRASH....BUT IN ALL OCASSION IN THE HISTORY OF INVESTMENT....IT ALWAYS COMEBACK AND GO EVEN HIGHER AFTER THE SHAKE UP LOH....!!

Thanks KC for the timely reminder of the danger of margin financing. All investors should prepare for a catastrophic event. It doesn't need to happen often, it only need to happen once in your lifetime to wipe out your entire wealth, if you are heavily leveraged using margin financing. These events are not that rare really. Very few economists predicted the subprime crisis, and no one foresaw the recent crash in oil price. The only way to recover from such catastrophic events is to sit tight and wait it out, and you cannot wait it out if you are heavily leveraged. RAIDER SAYS IT IS OK TO BE WARY OF MARGIN....BUT U ALSO NEED TO LOOK AT THE OPPORTUNITY TOO MAH.....!!

Beware that stock returns are not normally distributed and fat tails are very common in the stock market.
But does it necessary to have a fat-tail event like that of 1987, 1998, 2001, 2008 in the equity markets to get speculators killed using margin finance?

Let us just look at the recent small “blips” in the stock market when Ringgit just strengthened a little recently, and how the share price of some seemingly good stocks which I own a couple of them too, were affected, and the effect on those using margin finance when they bought their stocks at their peak prices. This maximum drawdown of share prices from its peak to its trough is the risk which investors should be more concern about.

Using margin to the limit to become a tycoon or a pauper? BUT IF U WANT TO USE MARGIN...U BETTER START YOUNG...THE YOUNGER THE BETTER LOH....!! IF U START YOUNG....U CAN AFFORD TO BE BASHED....U CAN RECOVER TO LEARN THE ROBES....!!

“Investing is not easy, and anybody who thinks it is easy is stupid.” Charles Munger

Posted by stockraider > 2016-03-09 20:41 | Report Abuse

uote from: iiinvestsmart on Today at 07:54:42 PM

This is extracted from Chapter 20 of the Intelligent Investor book.


After observing for many years, Benjamin Graham noted the main reason the investors lost money in the market.

They bought low-quality stocks at the time when these companies were doing well in their business.

Please note what he was telling us.

Let us borrow from Buffett. Buffett grouped the companies into great, good and gruesome.

Benjamin Graham was probably referring to these gruesome companies. Most of the time, their businesses were not good. On certain short period in their business lifetime, their businesses had a good run. NOT TRUE LOH...!! BENJAMIN DON MIND BUY INTO THIS TYPE OF COMPANIES....IF IT HAS BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH.....!!
THATS WHY HE RECOMMEND DIVERSIFICATION INTO MANY MANY MARGIN OF SAFETY STOCK LOH....!!

Investors got excited over this. They started to label these companies as good quality, when in fact, it was poor quality company with a temporary good business period. THIS IS THE KEY...MARKET MANIPULATION....PEOPLE ASSOCIATE GOOD SHARE PRICE AS HIGH QUALITY LOH....!! RAIDER HIGHLIGHTED.....COUNTERS BERJAYA CORP AND GREEN PACKET AT ONE TIME REGARDED AS HIGH QUALITY LOH.....!!
EX 3I COUNTERS....LIKE GUAN CHONG ASSOCIATE....AS HIGH QUALITY....WHEN PRICE MOVE UP LOH.....!!
U MUST RECOGNISE.....HIGH QUALITY MUST HAVE SUSTAINED EARNINGS AND NOT 1 NIGHT STAND MAH....!!

BUT RAIDER SAYS....FORGET ABOUT QUALITY LOH.....THE KEY IS BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH.....!!
IF U ADOPT THIS U R ACTUALLY FOLLOWING SIFU B GRAHAM LOH....!!

Manipulators and speculators too came into the picture. Company X is going to be the next Nestle. :-) Company Y is going to be the next Chocolate KIng. :-) Sounds familiar. Their stock prices which were usually unloved suddenly sprung to life. THIS RAIDER AGREE LOH....AGAIN YOUR PROTECTION IS STILL MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH....!!

What Benjamin Graham reminded the investors is to AVOID these not so good or low-quality stocks, more so when their businesses were doing well, temporarily. NOT TRUE...3I WRONGLY INTERPRETED B GRAHAM SAYS LOH...!! THE GOOD RESULT COULD BE DUE TO SOME TEMPORARY FACTORS LIKE HIGH CRUDE OIL PRICE AS AN EXAMPLE....ALOT OF INVESTORS GOT CAUGHT LOH....!!
BUT RAIDER NOT GET CAUGHT.....BCOS RAIDER USE MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH....!!


Benjamin Graham added that these companies are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company. THIS IS WHAT B GRAHAM REFERING LOH....LIKE OIL GAS BUMI ARMADA, SAPURA KENCANA, KNM.....PEOPLE CHASE AND PAID HIGH PRICE....THEY THOUGHT GOOD....BUT GOOD RESULT IS TEMPORARY & NOT SUSTAINABLE MAH....!!

What do you think he meant? Was he just referring to the price you are paying? Of course not.
OF COURSE BJ GRAHAM IS REFERING TO PRICE MAH......!!
VALUE IS CONSTANT.......STOCK IS A WEIGHING MACHINE IN THE LONG RUN LOH.....!!
PRICE....YES IT IS IMPORTANT LOH......BUY LOW FAR BELOW THE .....FAIR VALUE IS THE MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH....!!
THE CHEAPER U MANAGE TO GET STOCK.....AGAINST THE FAIR VALUE.....THE HIGHER THE MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH....!!


He was emphasizing on the fundamentals of the company. In other words, he was looking at the quality issues of the company, and not the price. Probably he was looking at their economic moats, though he did not use this term. B GRAHAM IS NOT EMPHASIZING QUALITY BUT INSTEAD MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH....!!

Essentially, Benjamin Graham asked us to focus on the quality issues as the most important aspect. B J BRAHAM NEVER EMPHASIS ON QUALITY BUT ACTUALLY MARGIN OF SAFETY THE CENTRAL CORE OF INVESTMENT LOH..!!.....THATS WHY WARREN BUFFET....ACTUALLY DEPARTED FROM HIS INVESTMENT PRINCIPLE IN THE LATER YEARS...TO FOLLOW PHILIP FISHER MAH....!!

If you got this wrong, thinking the company was healthy (good quality) when it actually was not, and you bought this company, you were more than likely to lose your money in this investment. NOT TRUE LOH....RAIDER IS A GOOD EXAMPLE HOW MARGIN OF SAFETY WORKS LOH....!! RAIDER IS DOING EXTREMELY WELL FOR THE PAST 7 YEARS LOH....!!
RAIDER DID WELL....BCOS RAIDER NEVER ASK FOR QUALITY ....BUT ASK FOR MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH...!!

Don't make this mistake. Study the company to ensure it is a good quality company before even considering owning it.
DON WASTE TIME ON QUALITY BCOS THE DIRECTION ON INVESTMENT IS MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH....!!
IF U CONCENTRATE ON QUALITY....U WILL BE OVER PAYING LOH.....GOOD EXAMPLE PET DAG....PE 30X LOH....!!

IT IS A PITY ....THAT INVESTSMART ....MISSED UNDERSTOOD..... THE CONCEPT OF MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH....!!

RAIDER ADVICE HIM DON WASTE TIME.....READING THE ' THE INTELLIGENT INVESTMENT ' BY BEN GRAHAM LOH....!!
BCOS HE IS NOT IN TUNE WITH THIS GREAT SIFU LOH.....!!

BETTER GO AND READ PHILIP FISHER ON QUALITY STOCK SELECTION LOH....!!

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-09 20:48 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Seek > 2016-03-09 21:58 | Report Abuse

Hi Calvin, thot can c u in PMcorp Egm but u were not there!
The sale of PMH stuck cos Dr Yu still having share in HLcap.
I assume what one proxy mentioned that he can't have shares in both Securities Co.
The penthouse issue in spore was raised .Wong Yen Fatt the MD said they use it when they go to spore! They sold the industrial warehouse n why keep the penthouse?
At least worth 10mil rgt. Suspect that KKp using it.
Overpayment of rental to Pmi not resolved yet!
Can raise it at the coming agm.

Posted by stockraider > 2016-03-11 10:51 | Report Abuse

Raider the biggest bull....need to clarify the understanding of valuation and risk loh....!!
Generally it is all common sense mah.....!!

Low Risk bases of valuation
1) Low Pe
2) Strong Growth
3) Stable of earnings
4) Strong Balance Sheet- low borrowing
5) High Net Cash relative share price
6) High Nta relative to share price
7) Strong cashflow relative share price
High dividend yield
9) Good management- Quality Aspect
10) Corporate governance and integrity- Quality Aspect
11) Hidden undervaluation of assets or so call hidden reserve- relative to share price
12) High replacement cost relative to the share price

Notice out 12 bases of valuation.....10 are objective valuation and 2 are qualitative valuation.
Margin of safety computation is derive from the 10 objective bases......after working out the margin of safety....u compare with the quality aspect....the risk environment......the relative interest rates ....your financial position....then U DECIDE WHETHER TO BUY OR NOT LOH ??

NOTICE THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATION IS ALWAYS MARGIN OF SAFETY 1ST MAH.....!!

WHY DON JUST BUY, IF GOT MARGIN OF SAFETY ??
ANSWER: U NEED TO COMPARE THE COST V BENEFIT LOH....!!

Raider the biggest bull....need to clarify the understanding of valuation and risk loh....!!
Generally it is all common sense mah.....!!

Low Risk bases of valuation
1) Low Pe
2) Strong Growth
3) Stable of earnings
4) Strong Balance Sheet- low borrowing
5) High Net Cash relative share price
6) High Nta relative to share price
7) Strong cashflow relative share price
High dividend yield
9) Good management- Quality Aspect
10) Corporate governance and integrity- Quality Aspect
11) Hidden undervaluation of assets or so call hidden reserve- relative to share price
12) High replacement cost relative to the share price

Notice out 12 bases of valuation.....10 are objective valuation and 2 are qualitative valuation.
Margin of safety computation is derive from the 10 objective bases......after working out the margin of safety....u compare with the quality aspect....the risk environment......the relative interest rates ....your financial position....then U DECIDE WHETHER TO BUY OR NOT LOH ??

NOTICE THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATION IS ALWAYS MARGIN OF SAFETY 1ST MAH.....!!

WHY DON JUST BUY, IF GOT MARGIN OF SAFETY ??
ANSWER: U NEED TO COMPARE THE COST V BENEFIT LOH....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2016-03-17 10:05 | Report Abuse

The power of i3 blog (it can even influence THE EDGE mind)

Author: fayeTan | Publish date: Thu, 17 Mar 2016, 08:06 AM

1. The Edge Weekly article says "Time to replace export-oriented stocks with O&G?" It is at Page 12 of latest issue of The Edge Weekly this week (14 March to 20 March 2016 edition). Basically, The Edge interview several fund managers and the view presented is that investors should not sell export-oriented stocks. And recovery of O&G is not confirmed yet.

2. My blog title is "SELL all export theme counters, TIME to BUY OIL & GAS". My blog was written on 7-March-2016 and I received at least 10 negative responses from i3 users. But that's not the key message. The link to that blog is here

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/genzinvestor/92637.jsp

3. So is it a mere coincidence? Maybe great mind thinks alike.

4. Or maybe The Edge people also read i3 blog? It is entirely possible. If that's the case, i3 blogger should be proud as your views and writing can actually influence the market. Recently, icon8888 blog on Airasia has influenced the market and I believe The Edge people is looking at your blog. But all these are just my opinions, I don't have solid fact to claim these are facts.

5. I maintain my view which is BUY Oil and Gas (SKPETRO). The biggest player Saudi is already having problem with their budget. They have burnt their fingers after trying to keep price low. Now it is in their best interest to push price up.

6. And yes, AVOID export theme stocks. I don't want to elaborate more as you all probably still hold a lot of export theme stocks. So good luck.

RAIDER IS NEUTRAL ON OIL & GAS COUNTERS AFTER IT HAS FALLEN SO MUCH,BUT ON THE OTHERHAND MOST OF THESE COMPANIES HAVE VERY HIGH GEARING LOH...!!
U MUST BE ON GUARD ON THESE OVER LEVERAGE COMPANIES, ESPECIALLY WITH REDUCE OIL REVENUE MAH...!!

AS FOR EXPORT COUNTERS, RAIDER IS STILL POSITIVE LOH...!!
WHY ??
RINGGIT HAS STRENGTHEN....SAY TO RM 4.00....BUT THESE ARE STILL A FAR CRY FROM LAST YR AVERAGE OF RM 3.60 LOH....!!
ALSO MOST EXPORT COUNTERS HAS STRONG BALANCE SHEET AND VERY LOW BORROWING MAH...!!
EXPORT SECTORS ARE HERE TO STAY LOH....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2016-03-18 17:17 | Report Abuse

WHAT ARE THE STOCKS THAT GIVE U DIVIDEND YIELD EXCEEDING 6% PA ??

1. MAYBANK
2. FPI
3. GUINESS
4. CARLSBERG
5. CYL
6. ALCOM
7. MEDIAC
8. PMCORP
9. LCTH
10. YTL POWER

SELECT CAREFULLY & HOLD FOR LONG TERM....SHOULD BE QUITE DEFENSIVE LOH....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2016-03-26 12:06 | Report Abuse

Hi fellow Investors -

We've all heard stories of lottery winners who lose it all, watching their newfound wealth disappear and their lives spiral into ruin.

I thought about this in two very different contexts recently: watching the negative news continue to cloud the economic situation in Venezuela ... !!
In a way, Venezuela won the geological lottery. The country is awash in the world's most valuable resource -- people fill up their cars for a half penny per gallon!

"It's cheaper than water," said one Venezuelan to a passing reporter. Said another, "It's so cheap, we could wash our hands with it."
And yet, their country is on the brink of ruin.
For residents, stockpiling essential supplies is the norm. The president recently declared martial law. Its economy is collapsing.
And, like the stories of so many lotto winners who fall into easy money without work... it's going broke.

Full of oil... and poverty
You might remember Venezuela from my Oct. 11 column, "Welcome to the Worst Economy in the World."
Venezuela is "blessed" with the LARGEST OIL RESERVES in the world.

Yet, crippling mismanagement of its economy has led to hyperinflation, food shortages, and general misery.
So, what do oil reserves and economic turmoil have to do with my my children?

The best way to build wealth and the incredible feeling that comes with financial freedom is through long-term investment in the stock market. So I've been building a portfolio of stocks to pass on to my children.

It includes companies I believe will be long-term winners: like Analabs, superlon, AFG and many smaller names like watta which I think could have big futures. Many of these are selected from the list of recommendations from Senior Analyst and 009 investigators.

My hope is many of these stocks will repeat the performance of their past winners. That means potentially seeing returns many fold over... In some cases, more than 15x.
And 10 years from now, I'll be able to pass something on to my children that not only delivers hard-earned wealth to the next generation, but also teaches her the tremendous value of saving and how the stock market grows wealth.

Yet, I couldn't help but wonder...
At what point does the blessing of being given something also become a curse?