It's a bit hard to estimate the fair value at this moment for MCT, especially since 1) the company just started to turnaround (from a profitability/EPS perspective, if based on yearly EPS of 4 cents, PE 10 worth 40 cents) 2) Fundamental change, historical prices of 10, 12, 14 cents is now totally invalid as a reference, due to change from loss making to profit making 3) if based on NAPS, of course, it's ~60 cents 4) Today's OPR result may be supportive of Property counters if rate maintained. 5) 720m unbilled sales at Dec 2022 is a record 4 years high? You will need to go back to AR 2018, for unbilled sales of 814m 6) Overall, the property index is also running up, maybe there's a wider property sector interest too
I think just based on the above which is fact, TP of even 30 cents is reasonable for the next 3 to 6 months. In this period, a few events will add further support to the 30 cents+ TP, Casa Embun and Alora sales/reception, progress billing for current projects etc.
For the immediate 1 week to 2 months, a lot will depend on the new buyers now, do they stay for a longer period or they are happy to take small profit, or worst, cut loss.
Yes nemesis, unbilled sales is actually good, the foundation is there already, now just need to see their execution/progress billing.
For avaland share price to meaningfully move, 1) Revenue between 90 to 120m per quarter, 2) Gross margin between 33 to 38% 3) Keeping direct operating expenses to 16 - 17m
This will result in 12 to 21m net profit per quarter. +- 1,2m forex gain/losses.
Seems like Avaland have improved in terms of the PR as well, start to see more engagement via newspapers(The Edge), winning property awards, PR release as well in addition to just announcing the QR results.
Wait for quarter result now. Last two rounds before good and bad QR announcement, share price already moved, current uptrend may indicate good qr is expected from other investors
With 1 billion of unbilled sales by year end, we are looking at estimate 3-4•5 sen EPS barring unforeseen risks, that should bring us to at least 0.35-0.40 share price...At 0.195 it is still deeply undervalued
Property stocks are having a mini bull run now as big boys like Mahsing and Ecoworld all moving up...Avaland is the cheapest reputable developer currently ready to ramp up launches...I m confident Avaland can strike 1.5 bil unbilled sales in 2 yrs time...With that we are looking at a share price of at least 0.50 with estimate EPS of 4-5 Sen per share...
U must know who is the Taiko behind...it is AYALA LAND the largest property conglomerate in Philippines...One thing for sure, Ayala will surely lift up Avaland to boost up status and confidence among investors...it is the brand name that matters...
Calling all comrades to acquire Avaland now before it skyrockets to 0.30 soon...at current level it is deeply undervalued with nearly 1 billion unbilled sales providing earning visibility 4 the next 3 yrs to come
I think we were too far ahead of the curve back then, when no one notices the share, and it was sold so cheaply at 13, 14 cents.
Anyway, now it's about the project execution and costs, and how much realized EPS.
For June 23 QR, 0.65 to 0.8 cent EPS is most likely 0.8+ EPS maybe possible
However, the best part will actually only happen in September QR results, where all their projects will enter the prime of their progress billing cycle simultaneously. For next quarter I'm projecting EPS of 0.9 to 1 cent as most likely 1 to 1.2 cent as probable
After which, EPS should stabilized around 1 to 1.2 cent per next 2,3 quarters, (depending on how is the new launches sales)
If it goes well, we'll have 3 quarters of continuous QoQ revenue and net profit increases, which is where the share price can potentially touch 40 cents.
Again, I'm talking about the longer game, via fundamentals the above is a possible scenario, short term wise, harder to predict what can happen in between.
I m attracted to its parent company Ayala Land which is the largest developer in the Philippine...MCT used to be trading above 1.00 few years back...If they can achieve back 5-10 Sen EPS I m sure this undervalued gem can reach back 1.00 again in the future...it makes sense to acquire now while it is undervalued
Why buy counters that is under coverage by sharks??? Isn't that more profitable to buy counters that no one is talking about...These analysts recommend you to buy cos they are the great seller to you at high price..."What the wise does in the beginning, the fool does in the END!!!
So far no Analysts have begin coverage on Avaland, NOT YET!!!...So pls buy before great sharks swimming in...Dun worry Ayala Land provides strong financial support to Avaland which is why I look high on Avaland...the next great high end developer to emerge... Reiterate BUY with TP of 0.50
forming new support at 24, 23.5 Still have a lot of shareholders who able to buy at 13 to 20 cents exiting I guess.
Fundamentally, it's looking good and certainly the next Q result should be better, but we do have a lot of traders that is able to unload in between. May take few days to break 24 and form a new average shareholder price of 24 cent to support new uptrend.
Ayala Land is the largest property developer in the Philippines...Don Play Play...Every project is executed to the finest detail...Ayala Land will surely transform Avaland to be one of the best Top 10 developers in Msia...It is a matter of time...Few years back MCT used to be traded at 1.00-1.50 during its heydays...So at 0.250 it is still trading at huge discount to its future glory...
For Avaland, the remaining launches like Alora Residences, Amika Residences, Aetas Taman Desa and Aetas Seputeh KL and Anja Residences Bangi should lift up Avaland's unbilled sales to at least 1.8 bil unbilled sales into next year providing explosive growth and high EPS ahead...Avaland aka MCT should return to its former glory...
0.265 already...moving steadily to test 0.30 resistance level by next week...Avaland has innovative products and design to offer to house buyers I believe all their launching will sell like hot cake and position its brand standing tall with the Big Boys like Mahsing, LBS and Ecoworld as its major shareholder is AYALA Land, a property conglomerate giant in the Philippines...Reiterate BUY with fair value of 0.50
This 5 billion crown of the jewel flagship project as known as 2fifth Avenue by Avaland is the greatest catalyst to position Avaland to the forefront of Property landmark in USJ setting Avaland to explosive growth in the near term...Alora Residences is the first phase of 2fifth Avenue that should sell like hot cake to the serious buyers...There is exciting future charted for Avaland from Ayala Land to position it as the next prominent developer in Msia supported by its innovative products...Reiterate BUY!!!
Total unbilled sales should reach estimate 1.3 bil for 2023 financial year end supported by strong take up rate of Alora Residences and coming Amika Residences...these properties are located in sought after location in Subang Jaya...Avaland is set to propel to explosive growth driven by its good management and exciting products...
Property stocks are gaining strength gradually...Soon all will be lifted high as construction and property sector Revitalised riding on HSR development...As for Avaland, it is ramping up aggressive new launches that should increase its total unbilled sales to all time high...
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....