AVALAND BERHAD

KLSE (MYR): AVALAND (5182)

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Last Price

0.27

Today's Change

0.00 (0.00%)

Day's Change

0.27 - 0.28

Trading Volume

1,924,800

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Discussions
3 people like this. Showing 50 of 2,941 comments

Val-Elta

Wasn't expecting the buying volume suddenly.

It's a bit hard to estimate the fair value at this moment for MCT, especially since
1) the company just started to turnaround (from a profitability/EPS perspective, if based on yearly EPS of 4 cents, PE 10 worth 40 cents)
2) Fundamental change, historical prices of 10, 12, 14 cents is now totally invalid as a reference, due to change from loss making to profit making
3) if based on NAPS, of course, it's ~60 cents
4) Today's OPR result may be supportive of Property counters if rate maintained.
5) 720m unbilled sales at Dec 2022 is a record 4 years high? You will need to go back to AR 2018, for unbilled sales of 814m
6) Overall, the property index is also running up, maybe there's a wider property sector interest too

I think just based on the above which is fact, TP of even 30 cents is reasonable for the next 3 to 6 months. In this period, a few events will add further support to the 30 cents+ TP, Casa Embun and Alora sales/reception, progress billing for current projects etc.

For the immediate 1 week to 2 months, a lot will depend on the new buyers now, do they stay for a longer period or they are happy to take small profit, or worst, cut loss.

2023-03-09 09:50

Val-Elta

let's see if it can be supported at around 18 to 20 cent for these next 2 to 8 weeks, and we'll have AR released then that'll offer more visibility/aid in our decision making.

2023-03-09 10:10

TCH1186

Good or no good?

2023-03-09 21:01

Madjin Gun

Today will break 0.185 resistance

2023-03-20 09:48

Madjin Gun

Sleepy stock zzz

2023-03-21 19:37

Madjin Gun

Jerung sudah masuk

2023-03-23 10:46

Moneyking543

jerung akan telan orang yang suka bermimpi...hahaha

2023-03-23 11:54

Madjin Gun

Swim with the shark, if you know what I mean

2023-03-23 12:52

Moneyking543

jerung = buaya

2023-03-23 13:09

George99

Up...up....up......

2023-03-24 09:07

Val-Elta

Post qr results update

EPS suffered due to ~4m higher than average direct & admin fees.

However, unbilled sales is at 790 million as of 31st Match.
This amount of unbilled sales is higher than Lagenda Property for comparison.

As all of MCTs projects is entering billable stages, it's possible for their upcoming quarterly revenue recognition to be at 100m, with 33% of gross margin. 33m gross profit.

Deducting 17m in direct operating expenses, 16m profit before tax and 12m profit after tax is possible.

Entering oversold territory, comparing against other property counters, MCT have much more in terms of earning visibility, net asset per shares but is trading at much lower share price.

2023-05-30 18:58

stocktrading88

looking good

2023-06-12 14:27

nemesis

Avaland's Latest unbilled sales now at 850 mil...By year end should reach 950 mil as new launching is gearing up... Reiterate Buy with TP of 0.30 for the near term...

2 months ago

Val-Elta

Yes nemesis, unbilled sales is actually good, the foundation is there already, now just need to see their execution/progress billing.

For avaland share price to meaningfully move,
1) Revenue between 90 to 120m per quarter,
2) Gross margin between 33 to 38%
3) Keeping direct operating expenses to 16 - 17m

This will result in 12 to 21m net profit per quarter.
+- 1,2m forex gain/losses.

Seems like Avaland have improved in terms of the PR as well, start to see more engagement via newspapers(The Edge), winning property awards, PR release as well in addition to just announcing the QR results.

Wait for quarter result now. Last two rounds before good and bad QR announcement, share price already moved, current uptrend may indicate good qr is expected from other investors

2 months ago

nemesis

With 1 billion of unbilled sales by year end, we are looking at estimate 3-4•5 sen EPS barring unforeseen risks, that should bring us to at least 0.35-0.40 share price...At 0.195 it is still deeply undervalued

2 months ago

nemesis

Property stocks are having a mini bull run now as big boys like Mahsing and Ecoworld all moving up...Avaland is the cheapest reputable developer currently ready to ramp up launches...I m confident Avaland can strike 1.5 bil unbilled sales in 2 yrs time...With that we are looking at a share price of at least 0.50 with estimate EPS of 4-5 Sen per share...

1 month ago

nemesis

U must know who is the Taiko behind...it is AYALA LAND the largest property conglomerate in Philippines...One thing for sure, Ayala will surely lift up Avaland to boost up status and confidence among investors...it is the brand name that matters...

1 month ago

nemesis

Buy buy buy Avaland is Comingggggg.... Property stocks are rising back...All that have risen shall fall, and the fallen shall rise again!

1 month ago

nemesis

So far the most undervalued property counter among the high end developers...Earnings are expected to rise supported by near term unbilled sales of close to 1 billion...Reiterate BUY with TP of 0.30

1 month ago

nemesis

0.22 is coming todayyy

1 month ago

nemesis

Calling all comrades to acquire Avaland now before it skyrockets to 0.30 soon...at current level it is deeply undervalued with nearly 1 billion unbilled sales providing earning visibility 4 the next 3 yrs to come

1 month ago

Val-Elta

I think we were too far ahead of the curve back then, when no one notices the share, and it was sold so cheaply at 13, 14 cents.

Anyway, now it's about the project execution and costs, and how much realized EPS.

For June 23 QR,
0.65 to 0.8 cent EPS is most likely
0.8+ EPS maybe possible

However, the best part will actually only happen in September QR results, where all their projects will enter the prime of their progress billing cycle simultaneously.
For next quarter I'm projecting EPS of
0.9 to 1 cent as most likely
1 to 1.2 cent as probable

After which, EPS should stabilized around 1 to 1.2 cent per next 2,3 quarters, (depending on how is the new launches sales)

If it goes well, we'll have 3 quarters of continuous QoQ revenue and net profit increases, which is where the share price can potentially touch 40 cents.

Again, I'm talking about the longer game, via fundamentals the above is a possible scenario, short term wise, harder to predict what can happen in between.

1 month ago

nemesis

I m attracted to its parent company Ayala Land which is the largest developer in the Philippine...MCT used to be trading above 1.00 few years back...If they can achieve back 5-10 Sen EPS I m sure this undervalued gem can reach back 1.00 again in the future...it makes sense to acquire now while it is undervalued

1 month ago

roger3210

FYI, Aya land recent QR pretty strong, tats why Aya land rebounded strongly from 23 to today 30, most likely going to break this year high 33.45

1 month ago

nemesis

Ayala Land is ramping up Avaland...steady buying support FM parent company ...0.30 is confirmed soon

1 month ago

nemesis

Buy buy buy last call last call before you are left behind...Boat gonna depart soon...U LEFT BEHIND, U ARE ON UR OWN!

1 month ago

nemesis

0.30 is coming...together with Mkland soon...

1 month ago

nemesis

Avaland and Mkland are the two rising star in Bursa now...the two most undervalued property stocks

1 month ago

Michael Kwok

Sell call avaland 23-24cents
Tp 20 cents or below
18/8/23 11.37pm

1 month ago

Abba84

Datukship a must 4 M
Kwok - a genius of 'sell cal' ; many /predictions had failed!

1 month ago

nemesis

TP is 0.30 by next week...there wil be no profit taking but straight uptrend to 0.30...So please make up your mind

1 month ago

nemesis

Why buy counters that is under coverage by sharks??? Isn't that more profitable to buy counters that no one is talking about...These analysts recommend you to buy cos they are the great seller to you at high price..."What the wise does in the beginning, the fool does in the END!!!

1 month ago

nemesis

So far no Analysts have begin coverage on Avaland, NOT YET!!!...So pls buy before great sharks swimming in...Dun worry Ayala Land provides strong financial support to Avaland which is why I look high on Avaland...the next great high end developer to emerge... Reiterate BUY with TP of 0.50

1 month ago

snowy1

QR is out! Revenue RM113.8m...highest since 4Q2020. Q2 Profit RM11.1mil

1 month ago

nemesis

Get ready All comrades as today is a BIG Day for Avaland...price Wil Skyrocket to the sky!!!

1 month ago

nemesis

Will there be LIMIT UP today???

1 month ago

Val-Elta

forming new support at 24, 23.5
Still have a lot of shareholders who able to buy at 13 to 20 cents exiting I guess.

Fundamentally, it's looking good and certainly the next Q result should be better, but we do have a lot of traders that is able to unload in between. May take few days to break 24 and form a new average shareholder price of 24 cent to support new uptrend.

1 month ago

nemesis

0.30 is coming ...

1 month ago

nemesis

Ambush ambush 0.30 is next...1.2 bil new launching to be executed for the remaining year 2023...

1 month ago

willc48

new owner but still smelling Filipino owner

1 month ago

nemesis

Ayala Land is the largest property developer in the Philippines...Don Play Play...Every project is executed to the finest detail...Ayala Land will surely transform Avaland to be one of the best Top 10 developers in Msia...It is a matter of time...Few years back MCT used to be traded at 1.00-1.50 during its heydays...So at 0.250 it is still trading at huge discount to its future glory...

1 month ago

nemesis

Yorrr Buy 0.30 is coming...Property stocks heated up for big rally driven by the Revival of Forest City...

1 month ago

nemesis

For Avaland, the remaining launches like Alora Residences, Amika Residences, Aetas Taman Desa and Aetas Seputeh KL and Anja Residences Bangi should lift up Avaland's unbilled sales to at least 1.8 bil unbilled sales into next year providing explosive growth and high EPS ahead...Avaland aka MCT should return to its former glory...

1 month ago

nemesis

0.265 already...moving steadily to test 0.30 resistance level by next week...Avaland has innovative products and design to offer to house buyers I believe all their launching will sell like hot cake and position its brand standing tall with the Big Boys like Mahsing, LBS and Ecoworld as its major shareholder is AYALA Land, a property conglomerate giant in the Philippines...Reiterate BUY with fair value of 0.50

1 month ago

nemesis

This 5 billion crown of the jewel flagship project as known as 2fifth Avenue by Avaland is the greatest catalyst to position Avaland to the forefront of Property landmark in USJ setting Avaland to explosive growth in the near term...Alora Residences is the first phase of 2fifth Avenue that should sell like hot cake to the serious buyers...There is exciting future charted for Avaland from Ayala Land to position it as the next prominent developer in Msia supported by its innovative products...Reiterate BUY!!!

1 month ago

nemesis

Total unbilled sales should reach estimate 1.3 bil for 2023 financial year end supported by strong take up rate of Alora Residences and coming Amika Residences...these properties are located in sought after location in Subang Jaya...Avaland is set to propel to explosive growth driven by its good management and exciting products...

1 week ago

nemesis

Property stocks are gaining strength gradually...Soon all will be lifted high as construction and property sector Revitalised riding on HSR development...As for Avaland, it is ramping up aggressive new launches that should increase its total unbilled sales to all time high...

1 week ago

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